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StevieDay1983

Championship Predictions > Aug 3rd - 6th

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The 2018 World Cup might not even have reached its final weekend yet but the 2018/19 Championship season is only a matter of weeks away! The first week of fixtures have been released and it's thrown up some interesting ties. In what could well be one of the most tightly contested Championship campaigns let's take a look at the odds and see if we can start off by putting our heads together to earn some decent profit! :ok

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I thought I would post the opening fixtures and results from the Championship for the last 2 seasons. The odds are William Hills. My observations are that only one team was priced as odds-on over the two seasons; Bristol City last year and duly obliged.  The season coming is showing (from opening poster OP) two teams that are odds on. Brentford v Rotherham and West Brom v Bolton.  I couldn't really argue with either.

For me a slight anomaly might be the fact that over the 24 games from the prior two seasons there were only 3 aways. 

I think that this time of year due to lack of form the emphasis should be on seeing how the respective teams have played against each other in the past. 

 

image.png.a5a1e79f77a738a9c4945531f2be24ff.png

Edited by andypaps28
grammar

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20 hours ago, Catchy said:

I'm more interested to see the newly relegated teams seem to do really badly first day out....

Fair call Catchy. To that end I've summarised for the last 3 seasons:

1. Teams relegated to the Championship from the Premier league ( 1 win, 2 draws and 3 losses for the 2016-17 and 2015-16 seasons)

2. Teams promoted to the Championship from Division 1 (1 win and 5 losses)

So another interesting trends seems to be promoted teams struggle (this intuitively makes sense as teams coming from a lower standard of football and likely the financial budgets are smaller)

image.png.5c78849148a4b6be8141f38669ea8040.png

 

 

 

Edited by andypaps28
Additional information added

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Reading v Derby

I have analysed the last 5 years data. Derby haven't lost at Reading in that time. The bookings market is interesting as there have always been at least 4 cards ( 2 out of 5 seasons had a red card as well). There have been over 10 corners the last 4 seasons.

image.png.20ef1ad0c90f144017d1dc23384bb8c2.png

 

 

Edited by andypaps28
Edited spreadsheet

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Football Facts and Streaks regarding Championship

Derby County won their last 3 games in Championship.
Derby County scored in last 4 away games in Championship.
Derby County scored in last 7 games in Championship.
Derby County allowed opponents to score over 1.5 goals in last 3 games in Championship.

You can find interesting 90 Football Betting Streaks for 03.08.2018 on this link ... http://eurofootballrumours.com/football-facts-and-streaks-03-08-2018-10691

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Reading vs Derby

The 2018/19 Championship season begins this Friday night when Reading play Derby in an 8pm kick-off at the Madejski Stadium. It will be a clash of two managers that will have a lot to prove this season with Paul Clement starting his first full season in charge of the Royals and Frank Lampard beginning his first managerial position with the Rams.

This is a very interesting game to start the Championship season. I've not had much faith in Clement as a manager but he's done some good transfer business over the summer with the likes of Andy Yiadom from Barnsley, Marc McNulty from Coventry, and David Meyler from Hull being the stand-out additions. Unfortunately, it's been a shocking pre-season with three defeats and three draws for Clement's side.

I've been impressed by Lampard's early days at Derby. Winning four of their five pre-season friendlies has been a statement of intent but they've also been playing an effective brand of football. Lampard's transfer activity has been intriguing. The signing of Florian Jozefzoon from Brentford was shrewd business and the signing of Jack Marriott from Peterborough could be a calculated gamble. Lampard has also been ruthless in getting rid of the ageing deadwood with the likes of Chris Baird, Darren Bent, and Jason Shackell all being released.

Opening games are always tough to call but I think Derby could sneak this one. As I said, I just don't rate Clement as a manager. He's undoubtedly a highly-rated assistant managers with great contacts but he doesn't have what it takes to do the big job. Lampard, on the other hand, impressed me as a pundit and I think he has the personality, tactical nous, and knowledge from his dad and uncle to make a success of it.

It's a hard job calling the first games but I can see Derby coming away with a decent result here. The loan signings of Mason Mount and Harry Wilson could well be superb acquisitions. Wilson in particular is a match winner and one of the top young prospects in British football. I think Reading could struggle this season with Clement in charge.

Derby to win @ 2.30 with BetBright

Total Goals Scored Under 2.5 @ 1.79 with Blacktype

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ENGLAND CHAMPIONSHIP – INJURIES & SUSPENSIONS

Reading FC v Derby County

Reading FC (last season): Tyler Blackett (25/0 d, suspended), Chris Gunter (46/1 d), Adrian Popa (6/0 m), Callum Harriott (m, newcomer), Dave Edwards (32/3 m), Garath McCleary (18/0 f), Jordan Obita (2/0 m), Liam Moore (46/3 d)

Derby County (last season): Tom Huddlestone (46/2 m, doubtful), Chris Martin (23/1 f), George Thorne (20/0 m), Nick Blackman (f, newcomer)

 

Daily updated injuries and suspensions information from more then 100 football leagues and competitions worldwide at: www.injuriesandsuspensions.com

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Leeds v Stoke

Sure, I'm Leeds born and a fan but I can't help thinking that with the new coach and buzz around Leeds, that odds pushing 2/1 are big against Stoke. Relegated teams from PL are always over estimated (as stated above) and if Leeds can get something going, there is no home support to match theirs in the Championship. 

Will it be a fortress or up and down again? We'll have to wait and see, but for this match Leeds have to be the value. Home advantage counts for a hell of a lot in football matches, and overpriced home teams are a winner throughout a season.

Leeds Win @ 9/5 (2.80) Unibet

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Bristol City vs Nottingham Forest

One game that I am intrigued by this weekend is Bristol City versus Nottingham Forest in a 3pm kick-off this Saturday at Ashton Gate. Not just because Bristol City are considered Cardiff's main rivals (this whole Swansea thing is a charade!) but I'm also close friends with a fan of the Tricky Trees and they are getting quite excited about this season.

Last season, Bristol City were close to gatecrashing the Championship promotion and play-off battle. Things fell off as the season drew to a close but they put themselves in a position where you would think Lee Johnson and the board would be wanting to build on. In a big shock, they instead decided to sell Aden Flint to Middlesbrough and Bobby Reid to Cardiff. That's 27 league goals that Johnson's team somehow need to replace.

Have they done it with the signings they've made? Well, the arrivals hardly give that impression. Marley Watkins, Andreas Weimann, and Mohamed Eisa are not necessarily the big name players that the fans would expect from a transfer kitty that would have been hugely boosted by £17 million worth of sales of key players.

Things have been slightly more positive for Forest over the summer. Owner Evangelos Marinakis has re-invigorated a disenchanted fan base. The club has got its swagger back. Aitor Karanka is a manager that looks like he has what it takes to do the business in the Championship.

Super agent Jorge Mendes has worked his magic to help get the signings of Portuguese duo Joao Carvalho and Tobias Pereira Figueirido completed. Loan deals for Gil Bastiao Dias and Diogo Goncalves are also down to Mendes. The additions of Michael Dawson, Costel Pantilimon, Jack Robinson, Jack Colback, Hillal Soudani, and Lewis Grabban have certainly bolstered the squad strength. Barrie McKay is arguably the only outgoing player that the squad will feel the loss from.

In short, I think Forest are set for a very good season. Are they favourites for promotion? Probably not. It's a tough division this season. The three relegated teams will all be in contention, the likes of Aston Villa, Middlesbrough, and Derby will all be looking to build on the previous campaign. Mid-table teams such as Leeds, Brentford, and Sheffield United will also surely be worth considering as dark horses. Forest will be up there though.

I fear for the Robins. Johnson is still a manager with questions hanging over his head. He led them well last season but after hitting the automatic promotion spots before finishing in 11th place last season he'll need a good start. I just think selling Reid and Flint showed a complete lack of ambition from the board and they'll pay for it. I expect them to start with a loss against a rejuvenated Forest side.

Nottingham Forest to Win @ 3.00 with BetVictor

Anytime Scorer: Lewis Grabban @ 2.88 with Coral

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i agree that nottingham forest will upset the trend of being poor away team they picked up last season. everyone will probably be on bristol city and they will probably lose. it's never good to start new season and rely on stats from a year before.

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Football Facts and Streaks regarding Championship

Birmingham City has under 2.5 goals in their last 4 home games in Championship.
Blackburn Rovers has under 2.5 goals in their last 5 games in Championship.
West Bromwich Albion scored in last 4 games.
Sheffield United won their last 4 games in Championship.
Bolton has over 2.5 goals in their last 3 away games in Championship.

You can find interesting 85 Football Betting Streaks for 04.08.2018 on this link ... http://eurofootballrumours.com/football-facts-and-streaks-04-08-2018-10759

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Well, pleased to see that late Derby winner go in. Not sure either side really deserved to win the game. It hasn't changed my feelings about either side. I think if Reading can't win games like that when the opposition puts chances on a plate like that then it doesn't bode well for their season. If Derby can play that blandly and still come away with all three points then it shows they possess the character and determination to do well this season.

 

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I’ll have to keep it short as I’m at work. The one sticking out massively for me is Ipswich at home to Blackburn at around 2/1.

 

This price is absolutely ridiculous, and there is now way Blackburn should be favourites for this. Paul Hurst has joined Ipswich and has brought back the feel good feeling within the club. He has made some impressive signings and has had a decent pre season. There are reports of a big (for Ipswich) crown of around 18,000 today and I think they are a cracking bet.

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Football Facts and Streaks regarding Championship

Stoke City has under 2.5 goals in their last 3 games.
Leeds United scored in last 5 games in Championship.
Stoke City didn’t score in last 3 games.

You can find interesting 93 Football Betting Streaks for 05.08.2018 on this link ... http://eurofootballrumours.com/football-facts-and-streaks-05-08-2018-10762

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Football Facts and Streaks regarding Championship

Aston Villa has over 2.5 goals in their last 5 games in Championship.
Aston Villa has over 2.5 goals in their last 4 away games in Championship.
Aston Villa won their last 7 games in Championship.

You can find interesting 42 Football Betting Streaks for 06.08.2018 on this link ... http://eurofootballrumours.com/football-facts-and-streaks-06-08-2018-10765

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Hull vs Aston Villa

There is some Monday Night Football on the cards this week with Hull playing Aston Villa in a fascinating encounter at the KCOM Stadium in a 7:45pm kick-off. Both teams were former Premier League clubs but come into this season with their fans anxious about what the direction of their clubs may now be.

A return to the top flight is not looking like something that many Tigers fans are considering a realistic possibility this season. Nigel Adkins just about steadied the ship last season but their summer business has been slightly underwhelming. The loss of experienced names such as Michael Dawson, Abel Hernandez, David Meyler, Sebastian Larsson, and Allan McGregor might not keep many Hull fans awake at night but seeing Harry Wilson shun a return to Hull in favour of a loan to Derby is gut-wrenching.

The additions over the off-season have hardly been inspiring either. Adkins has tried to maintain a positive attitude but the signings of Eric Lichaj, Reece Burke, and George Long are gambles. They are players that can do the business on their day but they could also fade into anonymity if surrounded by under-performing players. Luckily, they still have a reasonably competitive squad with players such as Jon Toral, Evandro, Nouha Dicko, Kamil Grosicki, and Jarrod Bowen to call upon. Mid-table appears to be the target though.

Aston Villa have had an appalling summer. It included the news that the club was in dire financial straits and it also appeared that the inexperienced Thierry Henry was being lined up to replace the veteran gaffer Steve Bruce. That didn't happen but it remains unknown what impact those rumours had on Bruce's command over the dressing room.

Due to the financial situation, there have been no signings coming into the club bar the loan of Atletico Madrid keeper Andre Moreira. Jordan Amavi, John Terry, Pierluigi Gollini, and Viktor Johansson have left the club to help ease the economic burden. The positive news has been that the likes of Jack Grealish, James Chester, and Jonathan Kodjia haven't yet been sold.

A few interesting facts stand out here. Hull have only ever beaten Aston Villa once in their past 14 meetings. That solitary win came back in February 2015. However, Aston Villa haven't taken a win from the KCOM Stadium in their past three matches there despite tallying up over 40 shots on Hull's goal. Finally, Bruce has only lost one of his last 5 opening day matches outside the top flight and that came way back in 2000 when he was Huddersfield manager.

Apologies for the long preview but this is a very hard one to call. It's thin lines. I think across the whole season Villa will likely be play-off contenders again and Hull will settle for mid-table, possibly even simply survival. I think in this game it'll be close. Both teams have suffered their disruptions over the past few years. It could be argued that Villa are currently in a less fit state. Despite Villa being slight favourites, I think Hull could take something here. After the tough summer they've had, I think Villa might take some time to get going this season.

BTTS @ 1.87 with MarathonBet

Hull AH +0.25 @ 1.73 with 188Bet 

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    • £10 Free Bet Insurance at Genting Bet! £10
      New customers only. Deposit & bet £10 at odds of Evens (2.00), if first bet loses you get a £10 free bet. Only losing win single part of an each way bet qualifies. Free bet credited within 24 hours of settled qualifying bet and expires in 14 days, with no free bet stake returnable. T&C's apply.
    • £35 Free Bet Bonus at 12Bet! £35
      New customers only. Place 6 bets each with a minimum stake of £10 at min odds of 2.00. Your Bonus Token bonus will be equivalent to your lowest stake during all your qualifying bets. Neteller & Skrill excluded.
    • Free Bets Forever at 21Bet! £520
      Place 5 bets of £10 or more at 2.00 (EVENS) or higher and receive a £10 free bet. Repeat every 7 days to get a £10 free bet each week forever. UK only.
    • Bet £10 Get £10 if first bet loses at Black Type! £10
      New customers only. £5 Free Bet & £5 Casino Bonus if your first bet loses. Min bet £10 single at evens (2.00) or higher. T&C's apply.
    • Pinnacle - Excellent Odds! £0
      No welcome offer and currently UK residents cannot bet there due to licensing, but many countries can.
    • £1000 Cashback + 2% Commission at Betdaq! £1000
      Must opt in and use promo code DAQBACK. £1000 cashback offer expires after 30 days.
    • £25 Free Bet Offer at McBookie! £25
      Scottish residents only. First bet must be within 30 days of registering. Min odds of 2.00 (EVENS). Payment restrictions apply. Free bet stake not returned and expires after 7 days.
    • £15 Free Bet at SportingBet! £15
      New customers only. Min deposit £10 at odds of EVENS (2.00). If first bet loses, you'll be refunded up to a £15 free bet. Skrill & Neteller deposits don't qualify. Free bet cannot be withdrawn and expires after 7 days.
    • Join Star Sports New Bookmaker! £0
      Currently no free bet offer, but well worth joining!
    • Boosted Odds at BetBoro! £0
      No sign up offer currently, but boosted odds for all customers.
    • £10 Free Bet at 138.com £10
      New customers only. Deposit and make a first bet of at least £20 at minimum odds of 4/5. Applies to pre-match or in-play single bets only. Should your qualifying bet lose, you will be refunded with a £10 Bonus Token.
    • £30 Free Bet at Dafabet! £30
      New customers only. Min bet of £5/€5 at min odds of 1/2 (1.50). Skrill is excluded for this promotion. Dafabet will match the first bet of qualified player up to a maximum of £/€30 if it does not win, as a free bet.
    • Grosvenor Sports - Double Odds First Bet! £0
      New customers only. Offer applies to Grosvenor Sports bets only. Max stake £20. Bets made with Odds Boost Token. Neteller & Skrill deposits excluded.
    • No Free Bet at Super Lenny £0
      Super Lenny is not offering a free bet currently, but is UK licensed and worth a look.
    • £28 Bonus at Fun88! £28
      Stake 6 qualifying bets of at least £10. Min odds 2.00, Multis 1.40. Min stake to qualify £10. Contact customer support to request your Bonus token and credited within 24 hours. T&C's apply.
    • Up to £1000 Acca Bonus at BetEast! £1000
      ALL customers up to a £1000 acca bonus. 4fold accas minimum. Email to claim within 7 days of settlement. T&C's apply.
    • £30 Bonus at OLE777! £30
      New customers only. Min stake £10 at EVENS (2.00). Place 10 qualifying bets of £30 and receive £30 bonus. T&C's apply.
    • £30 Bonus at TLCBet! £30
      ALL customers! Place 6 qualifying bets of £30. Min odds 2.00 and min stake £10. Bonus will be lowest stake of qualifying bets. T&C's apply.
    • Vernons Sports £0
      No sign up offer currently.
    • LeTou Bookmaker £0
      No welcome offer at present.
    • Marathonbet - Great Odds! £0
      No welcome offer currently.
    • Setantabet - Irish Bookmaker £0
      No welcome offer at the moment.
    • BetVision £0
      No welcome offer.
    • £20 Free Bet at Betfair Exchange! £20
      New customers only, bet up to €/£20 on the Exchange and if your first bet loses, we’ll refund you €/£20 in Cash. Bet must be placed in first 7 days of account opening. T&Cs apply.

    Casino

    • £300 Bonus + 20 Free Spins at Casumo! £300
      18+. New UK customers only. 100% deposit bonus up to £300. Opt-in required. Minimum deposit £10. 20 Free spins on Starburst game upon registration. 30x wagering requirements apply for bonuses and bonus winnings before withdrawal (game weighting applies). Max bet applies. Terms and conditions apply. Please gamble responsibly,
    • £5 No Deposit Bonus at Energy Casino! £5
      18+ New players only. You must click through Punters Lounge link. Register, then email to get bonus. x50 wagering within 3 days and min £30 withdrawal. Geo restrictions apply. T&C's apply. BeGambleAware.org
    • £250 Bonus & 50 Free Spins! £250
      New players only. 100% deposit bonus up to £250 + 50 Free Spins if depositing min £10. Use Exclusive Code: PUNTER50. NO WAGERING needed on free spins!
    • 10 Free Spins + £200 Bonus! £200
      18+. New customers only, *10 Free Spins on mobile verification (UK Only), 3 day expiry on Free Spins. **100% deposit match up to £200. Available on selected games only. 7-day expiry on Bonus. 40x wagering (max bet £5) before Bonus Balance can be withdrawn. Wagering is with real money first. Game contribution weightings apply to wagering requirements. £10 min deposit + 2.5% fee (min 50p). Not available using Neteller or Skrill. Cash balance withdrawable anytime + £2.50 fee.
    • 25 Free Spins! £0
      New UK&IRL Customers only. Free Spins can only be played on eligible games. No wagering requirements on winnings. SMS verification required. Opt in required, full T&Cs apply
    • 30 Free Spins! £0
      New Customers only. One bonus per customer. 30 free spins added to accounts verified by SMS (x1 wagering). Free spins expire within 10 Days & on selected games only.
    • £100 Bonus - William Hill Live Casino! £100
      Opt-in required. Only first deposit qualifies. 100% deposit bonus up to £100, with 70x wagering on Roulette tables only. Min. deposit £10. Max. bonus £100. Bonus expires 7 days from issue. Player, country, currency, game restrictions and terms apply.
    • Up to £200 Bonus! £200
      New players only. Min deposit £20. Wager 40x before withdrawing. Game weighting applies. Max bonus betting limit – slots: £5, other games: 10% of bonus amount. T&Cs apply.
    • Up to £100 Casino Bonus! £100
      Min deposit £10. x45 wagering, Roulette and blackjack 50% weighting. Bonus Valid 7 days. No using Moneybookers/Skrill or Neteller as a payment method.
    • £50 Bonus + 20 Free Spins £50
      New UK&IRE customers only. Deposits made with e-wallets are not valid. Bonus wagering x35 on eligible games. Max winnings from bonus £500. Spins available after bonus is redeemed/lost. 10 per day with no wagering.
    • £400 Slots bonus + 100 Free Spins £400
      New UK&IRE Players only. Min buy-in £20. Bonus wagering 35x on eligible games. Spins available day after bonus is lost/redeemed, 10 per day for 10 days, no wagering.

    • 2-0 Up - YOU WIN! £0
      Get your bet paid out as a winner if the team you back goes 2 goals ahead. Applies to pre-match single bets on Full Time Result market for applicable competitions. Bet restrictions and T&Cs apply. New and eligible customers only.
    • Money Back if 1 lets you down! £10
      Applies to UK & Top Euro leagues. Applies to match odds ACCA & Same Game Multi bets only. Max free bet €/£10 per day. T&Cs apply
    • 2-0 up - You Win! £0
      Applies to all Premier League, La Liga and Champions League games until 31st December 2018. T&Cs apply.
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