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BillyHills

2018 British Grand Prix

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British GP

For the third week running we have Formula 1 action and this time at Silverstone for the British Grand Prix.

If you look at the stats you will see that Mercedes have won for the last 5 seasons and Lewis Hamilton the last 4 of those, three from pole.
After last weeks double retirement for Mercedes this represents a good chance to get back into the groove. Hamilton himself looks determined to put this week behind him and came on to the radio and said the following;

Quote

'I don't know how many are listening in Brixworth and Brackley, but I cannot remember when I last had a DNF. This team has had the best reliability over the last years, this team has had by far the best car and is by far the best team I have driven for. We need to recover from this but I am in no doubt that we'll come back strong.' 

Max Verstappen took advantage of the tactical errors and retirements to win in Austria and Red Bull always do well at Silverstone, Daniel Ricciardo is in particular very quick around here. It will be a very close race on Sunday and the qualifying will be very important here. Ricciardo at 10/1 EW (first 3) looks the early value to me.

Stats

Screen Shot 2018-07-03 at 10.34.03.png

 

The average number of retirements over the last dozen years has been 4.5, note that a Classified driver for betting purposes is any car that completes 90% of the race distance, so we are looking at 46 laps of the 51 this week. We have had a Safety Car for the last 5 races so 2/5 with bet365 for there to be another one looks fair.

Screen Shot 2018-07-03 at 10.51.42.png

 

Screen Shot 2018-07-03 at 10.52.56.png

 

Early bet

D.Ricciardo EW 10/1 bet365 (first 3)

:ok

 

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Starting following this formula one thread recently but I myself have betted on F1 for 6-7 years now. As far as I can remember, it has been Red Bull dominance followed by Mercedes dominance and only in the past 1-2 seasons Ferrari and Red Bulls have managed to steal 2-3 race wins per season. 

My opinion is that there has never been good value in betting for race winners other than the dominant team which is Mercedes (less so this season but still favourite on most tracks). 

Silverstone is not a short track, which means the Merc have a longer lap to carve out their lead in qualifying. Normally I'd only bet for Red Bull outright race win after qualifiying as most likely they will have better odds as they qualify behind the Ferrari/Mercedes.

Meanwhile if I want to bet on Ferrari before qualifying, it'll depends on how difficult is it to overtake on that particular track. 

 

Back to the British Grand Prix, Mercedes looked strong after their engine upgrade, but their weakness is still the same. As long as they are in the lead, they are untouchable. But once they are following other cars in similar tyre condition, they are having difficulty to overtake.

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British GP

Once again Lewis Hamilton showed his liking for Silverstone has he powered to yet another pole position.

Hamilton is a best priced 8/13 with Betfair to win his 4th British GP on the trot but I think it will be a bit tighter than the odds suggest. Ferrari have been going well and Vettel is adamant he has the quicker car overall. Vettel is 11/4 with Hills and that is where the value punters will be heading I think.

Daniel Ricciardo starts 6th and he's a tasty looking 8/13 to finish inside the top 6, when you compare the two bets, Hamilton to win or Ricciardo top 6 at the same price: I for one fancy the Red Bull driver to deliver.

Suggested Bets
Ricciardo Top 6 8/13 bet365
Vettel To win 11/4 Hills
Safety Car Yes 4/9 bet365
Under 16.5 Finishers 1/2 bet365
 

 

 

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