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StevieDay1983

Last 16 Predictions > Jul 2nd & 3rd

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The last 16 continues into next week. The action carries through to Monday when tournament favourites Brazil will look to navigate their way past Mexico in the 3pm BST kick-off. At 7pm BST, dark horses Belgium face surprise package Japan. On Tuesday, the games conclude with an all-European tie between Sweden and Switzerland at 3pm BST before the final Quarter-Final slot is decided when South American giants Colombia face England in the 7pm BST game.

Hit us with your bets, thoughts, and tips! Let's look to keep this awesome World Cup forum going into the second half of the tournament! :ok

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15 minutes ago, waynecoyne said:

Columbia look too big at 3/1 even without james rodriguez who looked like he knew his tournament was over when he was substituted. I will probably leave this alone but think the odds are higher than they should be.

I agree completely, maybe some AH lines offer value. I think I've made most of my money betting against English punters, so I need to take these odds in some form or another :)  Also I understand that English media is pretty big on it "coming back home"? I think all the previous England games account to pretty much nothing whereas Columbia has been pressure tested and they came out alive but somewhat injured, I'm not sure who it favors more, but a weak group is usually not a blessing and resting players, hmmm, still not sure about that. Look at the previous world cup winners, how much do they rest their teams in final games? Usually they are not in no position to rest their players they need to fight and grind out the results, this is how the champions are being made.    

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To me, 1X2 odds for Colombia V England look correct and probably should be avoided. Backing Colombia would be fine if markets had been moved by stupid money going on England but as far as I can see they haven't yet. At the time of writing this a Colombia double chance or AH equivalent is in clear odds on territory, why anyone thinks this is +ev I don't know.

Wait until half an hour before kick-off and then see if England have been backed into oblivion by the crazies. Then you might see a genuinely juicy price on Colombia in 1X2 or AH market. Same applies if England make it to the quater finals.

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Football Facts and Streaks regarding FIFA World Cup

Brazil have seen under 2.5 goals in 7 of their last 8 home matches against Mexico in all competitions.
Brazil have won 12 of their last 15 matches in FIFA World Cup.
Belgium have won their last 8 matches in FIFA World Cup.
Brazil have kept a clean sheet in 10 of their last 13 matches in FIFA World Cup.
Brazil are undefeated in their last 20 matches in FIFA World Cup.
Belgium are undefeated in their last 13 matches in FIFA World Cup.

You can find interesting 37 Football Betting Streaks for 02.07.2018 on this link ... http://eurofootballrumours.com/football-facts-and-streaks-02-07-2018-10221

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Japan is militant and Belgium must be careful to be in the next phase. 1.40 in its win is low and there is no value, although it is quite possible. I believe he can open the scoring and get many goals
BELGIUM vs JAPAN @@ +2.50 Over, odds 1.85

Brazil is the favorite for winning - qualification, odds for winning are low in legitimate betting companies. Mexico is a trustworthy team and can hit the counter-attacks, stay away from the final result and will bet on both teams
BRAZIL vs MEXICO @@ Both team to score, odds 2.02

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Belgium vs Japan

Undoubtedly, Belgium are in a golden age of their football history. Their stars are getting team spirit after World Cup 2014 and Euro 2016, which can be seen from their mature performances on the pitch. In terms of strength and experience, they are capable of getting into the semis and even the final.

On the other hand, Japan have shown their improvements so far. As one of the top Asian teams, they establish their status in the world with the past games. Besides, players like Shinji Kagawa and Makoto Hasebe already consolidated their positions in their clubs.

In terms of lineup, Belgium are clearly stronger. Moreover, Japan have been terrible at playing against European teams that have better physical conditions.

The AH line of this game is Belgium (-1.25), which is in favor of them. Therefore I believe the Red Devils are expected to win this game.

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Brazil vs Mexico

Brazil have got 2 wins and 1 draw in the group stage, with 5 goals scored and 1 conceded, during which Philippe Coutinho has bagged 2 goals and 1 assist. He is the Brazil player with the best performance in group games. Besides, Brazil have already remained unbeaten for 14 successive matches in all competitions.

As for Mexico, they have made into the knock-out stage as the Group F runners-up after beating defending champions Germany in the 1st game.

Both sides have 5 encounters since 2010, and Brazil are superior by getting 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss. Besides, Mexico's core defender Hector Moreno will be suspended in this game due to his 2nd yellow card in the last group fixture, which will pile pressure on Mexico's defensive line. So Mexico can hardly halt Brazil's attacks in this match.

In conclusion, I believe Brazil are expected to grab a resounding win in this match.

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Brazil vs Mexico

In a tournament that has seen a number of heavyweight nations already out of contention it all seems set up for Brazil to win their sixth World Cup. That journey continues here in this 3pm BST kick-off against Mexico at the Cosmos Arena in Samara. Is this a given though?

Brazil have arguably not managed to hit their top gear yet. A dull 1-1 draw against a resilient Switzerland, a last gasp 2-0 win over Costa Rica, and a steady 2-0 victory over Serbia ensured top spot in Group E. It also showed that Tite's side are appearing to improve as the tournament goes on and that is the sign of a dangerous unit in any World Cup tournament.

Mexico shocked the world with their 1-0 win over Germany in their opening game. Following that game with a solid 2-1 win over South Korea means many fans were left disappointed that they couldn't seal top spot in Group F after losing 3-0 to an impressive Swedish side. It cost them a last 16 tie with Switzerland who they surely would have preferred to Brazil. It also condemned them to what is gaining a reputation for being the tougher side of the draw. Even if Juan Carlos Osorio's team progress past this round this still have to face Belgium or Japan in the Quarter-Finals and then Uruguay or France in the Semi-Finals.

I'm going to cut straight to the point. Mexico peaked too early. I think they gave so much in their first game that it has knocked them for six. The cracks started to show in the latter stages of the South Korea game and then it all came apart against Sweden. I can see Brazil tearing them apart here.

It's probably naive to suggest Brazil will win this by a landslide because not many games in this World Cup have been one-sided. However, Brazil is superior in every department and when you throw into the fact that Brazil are getting better as the tournament is progressing yet Mexico are getting worse. Well, it doesn't bode well for the Mexicans. It's also about time Neymar started pulling his finger out!

Brazil -1 @ 2.40 with Betfair

Neymar Anytime Scorer @ 1.98 with 888Sport

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Belgium vs Japan

The so-called "Golden Generation" of Belgium have passed their first major test of this tournament by beating England to top Group G. Unfortunately, that means they are in the reputed tougher side of the knockout draw but they are given a potentially easier (dangerous word to use at this World Cup!) tie with Japan in this 7pm BST kick-off at the Rostov Arena in Rostov-on-Don.

Belgium will be keen to shut up their critics and finally reach their potential. This is a game many of their fans will expect them to win. The three wins from three games in their tournament so far has given them momentum and it is now their game to lose against a Japan side that really lacks the quality Roberto Martinez's side possesses.

Japan have exceeded expectations by avoiding finishing bottom of Group H let alone qualifying ahead of both Senegal and Poland to reach the last 16. Akira Nishino becomes only the third Japanese manager to guide his team to this stage of the competition. He will break new ground if he manages to pull off a shock defeat here. No Japanese side has ever reached the Quarter-Finals of a World Cup before.

I'm reluctant to back Belgium to win here. Don't get me wrong. I still think they will but I'm not sure how effectively they will manage it. Japan remind me of the Wales team that defeated Belgium at the 2016 European Championship. One or two stand-out players but other than that a very average playing squad that relies on its team cohesion and work rate.

My feelings are that Belgium are wiser now and they are not suffering the defensive woes they had two years ago. I think this should be solid win for them. Japan will make it difficult and they might even give Belgium a scare. I think if Belgium can break the deadlock then a goal or two could follow.

Belgium to win and over 2.5 goals scored @ 2.05 with William Hill

Romelu Lukaku Anytime Scorer @ 1.91 with Coral

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I have found some success in betting CS 1-1 and cashing out or waiting for it to last till extra time depending on what I see. I'm going to do that for today's games. Also, I have noticed that virtually no yellows are been given in the 16th final. Maybe the referees have been instructed to do so or maybe it's the VAR. There seems to be a lot of value in cards market. Take a closer look if interested. 

BRA vs MEX Under 3.5 cards @2.42 with betfair

Edited by markus808

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This is the sixth WC for which we have odds readily available, and to this point the record of dogs of 6.00 or above in this first knockout is 0-7-9. 

Here are the sides that have gotten draws in 90 in this round:

Ireland v Spain
Russia v Spain
Chile v Brazil
Switzerland v Argentina
Paraguay v France
Algeria v Germany
Mexico v Argentina

Four of the favorites on this list won in ET, and two won on PKs. Russia yesterday was only winner.

Also, 40 matches in this database (four 8th-final matches from 1998 are missing), and the over/under 2.5 tally is 13-27.

Brazil's other four 8th-round matches ended in Brazil wins (Chile, Chile, Belgium, Ghana), three of them overs.

Paraguay, Algeria and Mexico on that list were priced between 9.50 and 11.00 to win, and the draws were in the range of 4.20 to 5.50.

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In big competitions, especially in knockout phases of the tournaments, it’s pretty rare to see one team trashing their opponent, winning with 2-3 or even more goals of difference. In knockout phase on World Cups, you have only one chance, and there is no 2nd match. For this reason, plenty of high rated countries, or let’s say favorites in this case – are starting matches slow, cautious, thinking that this way is the safest way, but sometimes happens that opponent scores and then favorites find themselves in troubles, as their opponent decides to close their box with as many players as possible, and defend with everyone for the rest of the match.

For this reason, I expect (in my eyes) very highly rated Belgium, to start this match strong. Without calculations, because they had enough opportunities to see that Japan is a team, who will play if they will have a chance to play. They have some very good individuals in last third and let them space to play, would be a huge mistake. With strong midfield, very comfortable on the ball, I expect Red Devils to make a huge difference in ball possession, which will decrease the possibility of Japan scoring here. In my opinion, even though they have shown heart and some good football, Japan was pretty lucky to be here where they are. They qualified due to receiving fewer cards than Senegal. In my opinion, they got Colombia the on wrong foot (scored from the penalty, had a player more from the start of the match), then they played draw against Senegal, against who they didn’t play I don’t know how good and at the end they lost against Poland – true that without some important players, but still. On the other side, Belgium cleaned the group without any problems. They won all three matches, including the one against England with a very mixed squad. Lukaku and Hazard are back after skipping the match against England due to injuries and this Belgium will be once again complete.

Even if they don’t have experiences on a national level as a team, which are very much needed in competitions like this, I think that they are simply too good to have any kind of problems with Japan. They trashed Panama and Tunisia, and now they will face Japan who simply isn’t on the same level as they are. An individual comparison between those two teams is nonsense. Motivation will be very high for both, but I think that difference in quality is too big and I expect at least two goals of difference here. Japan will fight, that’s for sure, but I think that they won’t be able to cope with much stronger Belgium side. I see advantage not just in quality, but also in physicality. True is, that Japan surprised me in this segment of the game against a much more physical side of Senegal, but in this case… it won’t be just a brute strength, but strength in combination with football knowledge and technical abilities. Simple as it is, my suggestion is Belgium to win the match with asian handicap -1,5 with odds around 2,25.

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Is it just me or is everyone getting nervous about their bets now? This World Cup has thrown so many curve balls. Take this Brazil versus Mexico game. Any other World Cup and I'd be having it as a banker that Brazil would win by two clear goals at least. Not this one. Nobody is safe.

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Yesterday I said... Denmark is the worse opponent for Croatia. Today, something similar with Mexico and Brazil. They just don't like the style of Mexico... that's why I decided to skip it, but I cannot skip the other match. I see simply too big difference...

 

Btw, I still think that Tite is making a huge mistake, playing anyone else instead of Fernandinho. In my opinion, right now, he is the smartest defensive midfielder in the world. Definitely capable of making a quick transition, incredibly calm on the ball, very precise with passes and besides... he can run in the box from the second plan as well. Comparing him with Paulinho... the only thing Paulinho can do is to run in the box from the second plan. Nothing else. Slow on the ball, slow with changing direction,...

 

I won't say that Casemiro is useless in possession because that's not true. But truth is, that he is not used to be the guy, taking care of possession in midfield. He is never coming to pick up the ball in Real Madrid, he is just there to do the 1-2 with Kroos who is taking the ball deep. Therefore, if the ball isn't immediately in legs of Coutinho, there is huge lack of creativity...

Edited by Pep004

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Football Facts and Streaks regarding FIFA World Cup

Sweden have kept a clean sheet in 75% of their last 8 matches in FIFA World Cup.
Switzerland are undefeated in 94% of their last 17 matches in FIFA World Cup.
None of Colombia’s 21 matches at the FIFA World Cup has ended goalless.
England have only failed to score in 6% of their 18 knockout games at the FIFA World Cup.

You can find interesting 32 Football Betting Streaks for 03.07.2018 on this link ... http://eurofootballrumours.com/football-facts-and-streaks-03-07-2018-10229

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England is a marginal favorite in betting companies, but it will not be an easy game against Colombia. I expect the two teams to be very cautious and to become a patience game, with low tempo, few goals
COLOMBIA vs ENGLAND @@ +2.50 Under, odds 1.50

This European battle will be judged on the details, the two teams are hard-hitting and the match will not be easy. I'm expecting a patience game without a lot of risk, so I'm expecting a few goals
SWEDEN vs SWITZERLAND @@ +2.50 Under, odds 1.47

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Sweden to qualify at 1.95 and to beat Switzerland at 3.10 with bet365

Sweden to win, easy pick! We got Victor Nilsson Lindelöf, Mikael Lustig and Andreas Granqvist as superior defenders to the swiss defenders. Their well timed playing gives us swedes an extra security. The swiss will have to do without Stephan Lichtsteiner and Fabian Schär, two of their most important players in defense. The replacements Michael Lang and Johan Djourou are not as good. Xherdan Shaqiri is dangerous and did the crucial goal against Serbia a week ago. And not to forget the midfielders Granit Xhaka and Valon Behrami. Xhaka did a glorious goal against Serbia and Behrami are important as ball conqueror. Blerim Dzemaili, Steven Zuber and Haris Seferovic are also offensive powers that are not to be underestimated. At the same time Sweden will have to do without suspended/injured Sebastian Larsson. But I'm convinced that Gustav Svensson, or Oscar Hiljemark, will do a good effort, just because their roles and chores in the team are so well defined.

I belive Sweden will do a good effort in the end and find the goals needed to beat Switzerland. All we're missing is Seb Larsson and we can do without him, question is if Switzerland can do without suspended defenders Lichtsteiner and Schär. Chances for Sweden to create goal opportunities increase without those two. We trust in Ola Toivonen, Marcus Berg and Emil Forsberg to do the offensive job and they are not so bad. Feels like we are a bit more dangerous than the swiss and in the end we might just nick it without extra time. At the current price I'm willing to bet on it to happen. No draw for me because my confidence in my own country to solve this without extra time is sky high for this match. Come on swedish powers, GOOOO!

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@StevieDay1983 Great analysis!

Mexico tried but got very nervous when attacking and did not generate confident scoring chances, Mexico follow the same script as their three matches and in the end loss again in this stage. Brazil did not show anything to increase their confidence, I see they will struggle in the following matches.

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With some of the key defenders missing I'm expecting to see some late challenges and questionable plays, both teams have been involved in penalties before. Outright penalty market @2.4 offers no value so I've gone with: 
Sweden to score a penalty @9.0
Switzerland to score a penalty@ 8.5 with Betfair
Both teams to score a penalty @41 with Betfair

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3 hours ago, markus808 said:

With some of the key defenders missing I'm expecting to see some late challenges and questionable plays, both teams have been involved in penalties before. Outright penalty market @2.4 offers no value so I've gone with: 
Sweden to score a penalty @9.0
Switzerland to score a penalty@ 8.5 with Betfair
Both teams to score a penalty @41 with Betfair

Good shout. Granqvist to score anytime or 1st/Last as well.

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