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Royal Ascot 2018 - Tips and Trends (Handicaps)


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Just one handicap on Day 1

Tuesday 5:00

ASCOT STAKES (A HANDICAP) (Class 2) (4yo+ 0-100) runners 2m3f210y Good To Firm
 
Previous Winners
Screen Shot 2018-06-13 at 12.56.22.png
 
8/10 Ran within 45 days
8/10 Started single figure odds
8/10 Aged 7 or less
7/10 Carried 9st3lb or more
7/10 Drawn 12 or lower
7/10 rated below 95
16/21 Placed in first 4 last time (10 won)
14/21 Won at 2m or more
 
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5.00 Ascot (Wednesday)

1m (Str) Royal Hunt Cup (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) (3yo+)
 
Previous Winners
Screen Shot 2018-06-13 at 13.06.26.png
 
9/10 Ran at least once this season
9/10 Aged 6 or less
8/10 Come from double figure stall
7/10 Carried 9st or more
7/10 rated 100 or more
21/21 had run over a mile previously (14 had won)
14/21 Finished in first 4 last time out.
 
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5.00 Ascot (Saturday)

6f Wokingham Stakes (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) (3yo+ 0-110)

Previous Winners

Screen Shot 2018-06-13 at 13.15.09.png

9/10 aged 6 or less
9/10 Ran at least once this season
9/10 carried between 8st 11 and 9st 3
8/10 rated 98 or above
7/10 Drawn double figure stall
19/21 Finished in first 4 last time out
17/21 Won at the trip previously
(12/21 Won at 7f or further)

 

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5.00 Ascot (Thursday)

1m Britannia Stakes (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) (3YO only)

Previous Winners

Screen Shot 2018-06-13 at 13.22.38.png

9/10 Rated below 97
8/10 Carried less than 9st
8/10 Ran within 50 days
7/10 Drawn in double figure stall
19/21 Had ran at least twice that season
18/21 Finished in first 4 last time out
17/21 Never raced beyond a mile
12/21 Had not won over a mile

 

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  • BillyHills changed the title to Royal Ascot 2018 - Tips and Trends (Handicaps)

5.35 Ascot (Thursday)

1m4f (1m3f211y) King George V Stakes (Handicap) (Class 2) (3yo 0-105)

Previous Winners

Screen Shot 2018-06-17 at 10.35.35.png


10/10 Ran within 40 days
8/10 Drawn 10 or higher
7/10 Carried under 9st
7/10 Rated 87 or higher
7/10 Started under 9/1 or shorter
20/21 Finished in frame last time out (11won)
17/21 Had NOT won at this trip previously

 

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Ascot Stakes 

Decs

Screen Shot 2018-06-17 at 12.35.47.png

8/10 Ran within 45 days
We lose Whiskey Sour, Daybreak Boy, Hassle, Garo De Juilly, Chelkar, Percy Street,
Lagostovegas, Kloud Gate, Stratum, Battalion, Meri Devie


8/10 Aged 7 or less
We lose Mirsaale


7/10 Carried 9st3lb or more
We lose Coeur De Lion, Sam Missile, White Desert, 


7/10 Drawn 12 or lower
We lose Look My Way


7/10 rated below 95
We lose Dubawi Fifty, Dannyday, 


16/21 Placed in first 4 last time (10 won)
We lose Cayirli, 

Selection
Cleonte EW 25/1 Coral

 

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Tuesday - Ascot Stakes

I've used the following trends to form a short list …..

  1. 14/16 carried 9-0 plus (that's all of them !)
  2. 13/16 from Jumps or dual purpose yards (bit iffy this one)
  3. 12/16 had run on flat this season
  4. 10/16 aged 4 or 5
  5. 10/16 won over 2 miles plus on the flat

Short List - Coeur de Lion, Dubawi Fifty, Look My Way, Cleonte, Sam Missile

By coincidence all 5 of these last ran on the same day but in 3 different races

To cut this down to 2 I've used the 'Jumps Yard' which is a bit iffy because a lot of yards have some jumpers …… but Alan King is better known as a Jumps yard and Karen McLintock is a new trainer but in her early days looks dual purpose. so I've plumped for -

Coeur de Lion at 8/1

Dubawi Fifty at 16/1

 

 

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Tuesday Coventry stakes 

Cosmic law.  414

Sergie prokoviev 400

The Irish rover.  397

Tricky race.....all 3 are improving types ....1stxand 3rd are proven over distance and fast ground.....sergie stepping up from 5f ...moorexrode Irish last time but jumped to sergie now .....but 12/1 ....9/4 ...12/1 .....I've got to play 2 biggys ew....money back if 1  places...and nice bucks if win ....value 

Cosmic law 5pts ew 12/1 lads 

The Irish rover 5pts ew 12/1 lads 

Edited by richard-westwood
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Hunt Cup - Wednesday

Card (first reserve definitely runs)

Screen Shot 2018-06-18 at 12.17.34.png

 

9/10 Ran at least once this season
We lose Flaming Spear, Mukalal


9/10 Aged 6 or less
We lose Hors De Combat, Gabrial


8/10 Come from double figure stall
We lose Zhui Feng, Love Dreams, Saltonstall, Raising Sand, Burnt Sugar, Mountain Rescue, Keyser Soze


7/10 Carried 9st or more
We los Kynren, plus reserves.


7/10 rated 100 or more
We lose Settle For Bay, Escobar, Medahim, Whats The Story, 


21/21 had run over a mile previously (14 had won)
We lose Mubtasim, 


14/21 Finished in first 4 last time out.
We lose Circus Couture, Goring, Tony Curtis, Firmament, Bless Him

Shortlist
Master Merion, Arcanada, Tricorn, Archetype, Affak, Repercussion, Cape Byron

Course Form
We lose Master Merion, Archetype, Affak, Repercussion (none placed at Ascot before)

Left with 3 against the field:


1pt Arcanada 33/1 Bet365
1pt Cape Byron 16/1 Bet365
1pt Tricorn 20/1 Paddy Power

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Wednesday - Hunt Cup

I've usual the following to get down to a short list ….

15/16 won over 8f plus,

13/16 4/5yo,

12/16 carried 9-1 or less,

10/12 double figure stalls,

10/16 had 2 or 3 runs this season

This has left me with - Escobar, Kynren, Medahim, Seniority, Settle For Bay

I've attempted to eliminate on the basis of Ascot form and/or straight mile form and surprisingly I'm left with one runner ……

Kynren at 25/1

 

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Weds royal hunt cup 

Escobar 396  16/1
Archetype  391. 33/1
Gabriel.    389. 33/1
Zhui feng  388. 20/1

May as try for a jackpot payout at these big meets ......gotta be in it ..as they say .....Escobar improving type and time suggests recent win was very good ....archetype looks vastly overpriced at 33/1 .....Gabriel and zhui feng ultra consistent at top level ......time to rock n roll on these big races 

Top 3 10pt wins 

12 x .5pt rev forecasts and 24 x .2 tricasts 

Edited by richard-westwood
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Thursday
5.00 Britannia Stakes 

Screen Shot 2018-06-19 at 11.20.38.png

9/10 Rated below 97
We lose Top 7 horses


8/10 Carried less than 9st
We lose James Cook, Petrus, Bond Street, Completion, Moqarrar, Desert Doctor.

7/10 Drawn in double figure stall
We lose Magnificent, Stylehunter, Statuario, Bullingdon

19/21 Had ran at least twice that season
We lose Ballymount, Curiosity


18/21 Finished in first 4 last time out
We lose Full Moon, Simpson, Band Of Outlaws,


17/21 Never raced beyond a mile
We lose Desert Wind


12/21 Had not won over a mile
We lose Ventura Knight, Crack On Crack On, Maverick Officer, Sam Gold, Corrosive, Ostillo, Breath Caught.

3 against the field
1pt George Of Hearts 10/1 bet365
1pt Vale Of Kent, 33/1 Boylesports
1pt Alfa McGuire 33/1 bet365

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Thursday

King George V Stakes

Screen Shot 2018-06-19 at 11.20.51.png

10/10 Ran within 40 days
We lose Dubhe, Occupy, Mr Reckless


8/10 Drawn 10 or higher
We lose First Eleven, Cassini, Lucky Deal, 


7/10 Carried under 9st
We lose Cross Counter, Downdraft, Communique, Lucius Tiberius, Baileys Excelerate


20/21 Finished in frame last time out (11won)
We lose Dukhan, Billy Ray, Lisheen Castle, Perfect Illusion, He's Amazing, Technological


17/21 Had NOT won at this trip previously
We lose Making Miracles, Baghdad

Selections

1pt Elegiac 16/1 bet365
1pt Corgi 14/1 bet365

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Thursday - King George v - Hcap

Using these trends ….

15/15 had 2 to 4 runs this season, 14/15 placed LTO, 12-15 carried 8-13 or less, 10/15 had won over 10f plus before, 9/12 double figure draw

short list of 3 - Baghdad, Corgi, Making Miracles

As I don't like to put more than 2 selections I'm dumping Corgi as the other two have won over the distance

Baghdad at 9/1

Making Miracles at 16/1

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Brittania handicap Thurs

Crack on Crack on. 412. 8/1

Corrosive.   411.  16/1

Curiosity.   408 14/1

Finniston farm 405. 40/1 

Hugely open race .....Crack on won as he likes last time in very fast time so will be hard to peg back ....Corrosive won well in lesser grade but steps up in class but as a result gets yo run with stone less on back....got to help ......Curiosity and finniston farm good ew chances too with latter huge huge odds and vastly overpriced at 40/1 

10pt wins top 3 

12 x .5pt forecasts  24 x .2pt tricasts 

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Wokingham 

Well ....hopeless up to now ...ascot curse strikes again .....but top 2 rated in this are 10pts clear of rest to time to go For it and try and finish with a flourish 

Ice age.   413 

Dreamfield 410 

Dreamfield  unbeaten for gosden. On the upgrade ....4/1 a bit short but bookies running scared so dangerous ....ice age is 25/1 !!!......For eve johnson.....already had 1 high profile winner ...could this be another ????.....rock n roll

Dreamfield 20pts win 4/1 bet365

Ice age 10pts ew 25/1 betfred 

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