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StevieDay1983

2018/19 Champions League Ante-Post Betting

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The odds for outright winner of the 2018/19 Champions League are now available. Some interesting prices. Barcelona starting off as the early favourites ahead of the likes of Manchester City, Real Madrid, Bayern Munich, and Liverpool. Is that right? Personally, I think we could see Pep Guardiola or Jurgen Klopp lifting the trophy next season.

What are your thoughts on the early prices then?

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I think the idea behing Barcelona pricing is that they will make few, if any new incorporation, and have a squad that have shown consistency last season having won La Liga, and the bookies are considering they just need the fine tunning to win CL again. But the departure of Iniesta is leaving a big space, he appeared in 44 matches last season and has been a key player in Barca middle field, is true the team have important players to take their place, as Coutinho or Paulinho, but I see them more offensive than play distribution, which Iniesta used to do. Maybe a change in playing style, departing more from tiki-taka?

Tottenham could be the dark horse here and the price is huge, the bookies might be expecting departures besides Harry Kane, who already extend his contract?

The transfer market is open and I think we might see important players change teams after the World Cup, and that will impact the prices. All is left to see.

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My favourite for Champions League 2017–18 have to be Real Madrid.

1)Real Madrid-At present Real Madrid football match has the best squad in the world .They have a decent goal keeper in Keylor Navas .Back 4 is solid with Ramos and Varane as a reliable CB ,Marcelo and Dani Carvajal who in my opinion are the best full backs in the world.The midfield trio of Kroos ,Modric and Casemiro are simply world class and you just cant find anything wrong about them.And then the forward line of Bale,Benzema and Ronaldo are simply the best and Isco is slowly becoming world class player.Plus their bench strength is amazing Kovacic,Lucas Vazquez and Marco Asensio are doing very well for the club.

The other teams who can dethrone Real Madrid at the moment are Barcelona and Bayern Munich and if they dont choke is PSG.

 

Edited by rOYS123

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Welcome rOYS123! Thanks for contributing with your views, hope to see you around.

Is true that Real Madrid has a great squad at the moment, and despite the slump in form they had last season they where able to clinch a third straight Champions League for something historic. Also that Real Madrid has been the only club to win it five times, in a different time. But it is yet to see which one is going to be the squad on September 1 after the market closes, as many news regarding C. Ronaldo departure, together with the change in the coaching staff.  Many open variables, but something is clear, Real Madrid is always a contender.

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Below are the win rates and performance stats for the last 100 European matches for most of the European nations

Euro.JPG.a8e33255c0f02bdb768d726ed8118671.JPG

I was surprised to see Italian with the combined 3rd highest win-rate in European football. I think that the likes of Napoli, Roma and Inter Milan are all under-rated by the market and I wouldn't be surprised to see a renaissance in Europe of Italian football. On my final ratings for Serie A (see below) there isn't a great deal between the top sides in Italy. With that in mind, at the current prices I'm going cover all four teams in the outright.

5b439c616df1e_seriea.JPG.e0c84d8995ebc0097740cdade1d280d0.JPG

Bet

1pt - Juventus to win the Champions @ 14/1 with Skybet

0.5pts - Napoli to win the Champions League @ 50/1 with Unibet

0.5pts - Roma to win the Champions League @ 60/1 with Unibet

0.5pts - Inter Milan to win the Champions League @ 66/1 with various

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If Cristiano Ronaldo arrives in Turin to play for Juventus, that odd will probably drop as they will be consider absolute favorites.

With Monchi in the technical directive, Roma will for sure put another interesting season in Champions League.

Napoli is making many changes in their squad and I see it as the most risky of the four.

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In a quick look I noticed the bump in Germany position from 8th (Europa League and CL) to 3rd (Champions League only). Also Portugal. Highlights that many countries have just 6 or 12 matches, which speaks of one or two clubs taking part in the competition and not advancing beyond group stage.

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Not since Porto lifted the Champions League in 2004 have a side from outside the "Big 5" leagues won this trophy - in that time no French side have won the trophy but I'm including them due to the modern-day presence of PSG. That being said, here's a few bits of data regarding this years challengers hailing from said league...

England

e0.JPG.e3a5ddcfdea0fd1eb330436016e4d7e5.JPG

France

f1.JPG.bf97f83b00543c88c82692dd88748c62.JPG

Germany

d1.thumb.JPG.885d995aabf6fe1bc6301d00ad6a4e1a.JPG

Italy

i1.JPG.12e437b856bc3421238776c55e2e54b5.JPG

Spain

sp1.JPG.e343a64b36985dc715ba636183a3b7f5.JPG

Notes

Coe - Nations coefficient

Pyt - (Nat) Pythagorean rating of all teams from said Nation over the last 100 UCL matches, (Confed) Pythagorean rating of team over last 32 European matches (Domestic) Pythagorean rating of team over last 32 domestic matches

WR - (Nat) Win rate of all teams from said Nation over the last 100 UCL matches, (Confed) Win rate of team over last 32 European matches

STR - Shots ratings over last 32 domestic matches

 

 

e1.JPG

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ajax out to 40/1 going to have a nibble at that

they were the better team last night as they were when they lost to real madrid

if they can up their finishing they can go to juve and win

Edited by waynecoyne

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