StevieDay1983

2018/19 Championship Ante-Post Betting

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The 2018/19 Championship ante-post odds have been released and it makes for some very interesting reading. Stoke have been installed as the early favourites. Not sure they deserve that given Gary Rowett's inability to get sides promoted so far with long runs of poor form constantly hampering his campaigns. I also doubt many of the big names such as Xherdan Shaqiri, Jack Butland, and Joe Allen will still be there next season. The likes of West Brom, Middlesbrough, and Nottingham Forest could be decent shouts. Be wary of Swansea (board room level discontent), Aston Villa (huge financial problems now), and Leeds (owner who can't sit still for 5 minutes) at those odds!

@waynecoyne, @sajtion, @arvee, @canaries91, @Mindfulness, @betcatalog, @Magic0024, @malabgd, @CloughandTaylor, @Tiffy, @PokerWolf1, @teddybear3011, @skyblues88, @allyhibs, @Icongene, @KikoCy, @willie82, @Neubs, @Papa Lazarou, @kulikTS, @Valkovets, @harry_rag, @Pipoca, @padman, @Marek76, @silver fox, and @the bastardian, what do you think of these prices?

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On 6/7/2018 at 9:40 AM, waynecoyne said:

it's a bit early stevie but i can't see anything at the front of the market that i like. 

Yeah, this season looks a massive opportunity for one of the mid-table teams from last season to get their house in order early and prepare for a big push for promotion this season. I'm thinking the likes of Sheffield United, Brentford, Sheffield Wednesday, Norwich, and Bristol City who might not initially have been thinking automatic promotion this coming season could make it a serious objective with the right signings.

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Thinking of Forest and Stoke outright. Stoke have the best squad in the league by a mile, bit short up front but a lot of players who could do a job in the Prem.

Forest are following the Wolves blueprint getting in promising Portuguese youngsters! Not the same sort of arrangement Wolves had with Mendes but they have money behind them and signing £15m midfielders is serious business. Grabban will get 15-20 goals minimum..they are a long shot but the odds reflect that.

Bet big on Middlesborough last season and they were poor most of the season, never thought they would go up, squad hasn't improved, if Traore isn't on top form they struggle to create anything.

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13 hours ago, HastGill1 said:

Anyone know when Racing Post season preview is released?

It is usually a few days before the championship kicks off so probably Wednesday 01/08/18 or Tuesday 31/07/18 as the first game is on 03/08/18. They will be advertising it next weekend.

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Why oh why do they price Leeds up so short? I really don't get it at all. Anyway, Derby look a good price, ok the jury is out on Lampard, first job and all that but if he gets it right, gets consistency, they could well be up there.

I saw a small piece with him from yesterday's friendly where they won 3-0 over Southampton and he seemed pleased with the performance. I think they could well be one to watch should Lampard start working his magic. The squad remains largely unchanged with Weimann leaving and two youngster from Chelsea and Liverpool in on loan plus Joozefon from Brentford.

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Pre-Season Projections/ Ratings

e1.thumb.JPG.7538eb27443fa694ece9e81d2ec92f40.JPG

Notes

Obvisouly all stats/ data based and DOES NOT take into any changes to the management/ squad made during the off season, intended to be a starting point before more indepth research. Points projections based on Pythagorean theorom taken over the final 32 matches of last season, newly promoted teams projected points calculated taking into account the performance of past promotoed teams. Margin of victory, goals for and goals against stats are again taken from a teams final 32 matches of last season. All stats and ratings promoted/ relegated sides are their final 2017/18 ratings.

Thoughts

I think this is a really poor (quality wise) renewal of the Championship I'm happy to put a line through a number of teams for verious reasons. There is one side I'm keen on however, and that side is Wigan and there are several reasons for this; I have shots data going back to the 2010/11 season and the WIgan side of last season rate as the strongest side to play League One football in that period, they also recorded the highest 46-match Pythagorean rating and the strongest Market rating over the same time frame.

Wigan.JPG.14af9fc9d3bb783948d2bb427603ecbb.JPG

Bet

0.5pts - Wigan Athletic to win The Championship @ 40/1 with Bet365 & Paddy Power

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3 hours ago, Xcout said:

I fancy  Middlesbrough!

I backed Middlesboro last year based on their squad and they were disappointing-not going to touch them again.

It's probably worth waiting a bit to see the remaining transfer activity, derby's 2 loans look high quality, I can see them having a better go at it this time, obviously lampard is a risk. It seems like a wide open year, forest are following the wolves formula but the price looks too short now.

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I have had a speculative relegation bet on sheffield wednesday at 14/1 (hills). Wednesday have sold first choice right back jack hunt to bristol city, jordan rhodes has gone on loan to norwich. Loan centre half venancio has returned to portugal.  We have signed zero players and we probably won't. As things stand i don't expect relegation but if we receive decent bids for our better players; forestieri, bannan, lees and reach they may be sold.

I don't know if we are under a transfer embargo at the moment as no info is coming out of the club

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Derby have agreed a fee for jack marriott with peterborough and are also interested in waghorn from ipswich. 

They previously signed harry wilson and mason mount on loan and josefzoon from brentford. As i said before lampard is an unknown in managerial terms but i have had a dabble ew at 14/1 with skybet 1/5 1,2,3,4

16 available but only 3 places.

Edited by waynecoyne

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On 24/07/2018 at 1:45 PM, waynecoyne said:

i've had a couple of small relegation trebles with skybet:

rotherham, bolton and reading at 50/1

rotherham, bolton and hull at 40/1

Behave! Haha

Going to see who else comes in before I make my mind up on that. A lot of new faces and we are still strengthening. Tempted at Wigan to be relegated at 9/1. Surely they’ll be in the mix so worth a go on them. Birmingham under an embargo also! 11/2

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sorry wanderer gone for the low hanging fruit

Birmingham a good call Wednesday possibly if we sell 2 or 3 in next week -think we are in trouble

reading an obvious pick

Blackburn and wigan should be ok

sheff utd will have good season I think quality signings

don't like the manager(scummy scrubber) but hey ho

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The Championship is a place to make money , if you can identify the form horses before the bookmakers adjust the odds. Last season Wolves(14), Cardiff (13), Fulham(12) were 3 of the top 4 in homes wins (last 19 games, Villa had 13 wins). Promotion winners get the business done at home. I think apart from Stoke, the odds are very tricky.  

Is there a lot between Middlesbrough, WBA, Leeds, Villa  and Swansea?   As an absolute dark horse I think Preston may do quite well this season. I don't think they make it into the top 2 , but could fluke it trough the playoffs.

 

 

Edited by neilovan

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