Golden Boot Odds

[StevieDay1983]

The odds for the Golden Boot winner for this year's World Cup have been released. Personally, I'm a bit surprised to see Lionel Messi listed as the favourite. Never looked like coming close to that award and isn't as prolific as he was going into previous tournaments. Neymar, Antoine Griezmann, Cristiano Ronaldo, and Harry Kane are far more attractive options.

Who are you backing to win this award? Always worth looking at the quality of defensive opposition the players will face in the group stages because that accounts for almost half of the tournament. Generally, leading candidates have bagged 3-4 goals by the time the group stages end. Which players listed up there can do that? If I had to pick one then I'd have to go for Griezmann.

[harry_rag]

Taken Jesus at 14/1 with Hills. £5 free bet every time he scores. (Similar offer in outright market every time your team wins a game.)

[waynecoyne]

marathonbet have timo werner at 33 which is too big 

[harry_rag]

One thing I've noticed about this market this year which can cause disputes come settlement time - be aware of what you're betting on! That might sound obvious but what I mean is, regardless of what the bookmaker calls the market, are you betting on the golden boot winner or the top goalscorer?

There seems to have been a move towards the former this year but there are still some firms offering the more traditional top goalscorer bet, i.e.

Golden Boot - you are betting on the official Fifa title awarded to the top goalscorer in the tournament. In the event of a tie, rankings are determined by the player with the most assists then, if necessary, the player who played the fewest minutes

Top Goalscorer - you are betting on the player who scores the most goals in the tournament. In the event of a tie, dead heat rules will apply.

Worst case scenario, you back a player who ties for top goalscorer or one of the each way places and assume you'll get a decent payout under dead heat rules but you get nothing back under FIFA Golden Boot rules. Best case scenario, you get a full payout when you thought you were looking at a tiny DH return.

Impossible to say which is best but just be aware of what you're betting on so you know what the correct return is. Personally, as an old-timer, I probably favour the second basis, with the number of goals being the only relevant factor.

 

[harry_rag]

5 hours ago, waynecoyne said:

marathonbet have timo werner at 33 which is too big 

Is there any chance you've looked at their Golden Ball market (Player of the tournament) rather than Golden Boot (top scorer)? I agree that would be a huge price and just went to have a look. It was into 28/1 and I spent ages looking at the prices thinking that they had quite a few standouts before I spotted the "Boot" market lurking under the "Ball" one. He's 28/1 for the latter but only a more typical 14/1 for Golden Boot.

Apologies, and well done, if you've managed to get 33/1 for top scorer but I can see how easy it would be to mistake the markets as I've just done it for about 10 minutes! It would be better if they had some explanatory text for the "Ball" market as they do for "Boot".

Something else to be wary of when looking at this particular market! 

[waynecoyne]

i didn't actually have a bet harry as when i tried to login the details were  not recognised

but i linked through from oddschecker, so it's possible the link was defective.

i did a double on jesus and brazil yesterday and now you've got me wondering what i have bet on 

[waynecoyne]

History: World Cup Top Goalscorer / Timo Werner

eny

Odds ShorteningOdds ShorteningOdds DriftingOdds Drifting

• Today                           
• All History                  

Time
14:20
11:53								14
10:23					28
09:11			14
07:34											12
Previous Day Closing Price	16	14	16	14	33	14	16		16	14	16	14	14	12	16	14	16	16	15	16	14	16		157/10

 

this is todays history -it's the fifth from the left, but the link could still have been defective

Edited May 31, 2018 by waynecoyne

[harry_rag]

I've looked at a few players histories and I'd say with 99% confidence that they were linking to their Golden Ball prices rather than than Golden Boot. There are no current prices displayed so I suspect the penny may have dropped. As a few of the Golden Ball prices seem to have been cut I suspect a few people have unwittingly bet in the wrong market.

I'm sure you'll be alright with your Jesus bet as the top scorer/win double is fairly standard but Golden Ball/win would be a bit unusual. Just check your slip!

Partly illustrates the perils of Oddschecker and FIFA having two awards with very similar names. Not sure that the Golden Ball is that popular a betting heat.

[Tel79]

Werner is a great shout, you can find 16/1 on him with quite a few bookmakers, check the E/W terms and how many places though.

Germany are a semi final side, they always manage to get there and their group is not too difficult. If this guy ends up getting 5 goals then you will be making profit. 

[StevieDay1983]

Crazy to think that Germany scored 43 goals in qualifying and not one single Germany player scored more than 5 goals during the qualification process. Thomas Muller and Sandro Wagner scored 5 each. Timo Werner only scored 3 goals. I can't see beyond Antoine Griezmann.

[HastGill1]

All Betfair.

Thomas Muller 34/1 - I'm not sure Werner will start games but Muller certainly will and looks a decent price as he is consistently one of the top scorers for Germany and they should get to the semis at least. Form has been better for Bayern this season and he top scored in 2010 and second in 2014.

Griezmann 14/1 Top goal scorer at Euro 2016 and in the form of his life currently. Takes penalties and playing for one of the favourites. No brainer.

Lukaku 20/1 They have an easy group which they should win and are an attacking side with a manager who can't set his team up to defend. Would probably need them to get to the semis for this to come in but he will be their main striker and with De Bryne, Hazard feeding him he should get a fair few chances.

 

 

[Mindfulness]

On 31/05/2018 at 4:01 PM, Tel79 said:

Werner is a great shout, you can find 16/1 on him with quite a few bookmakers, check the E/W terms and how many places though.

Germany are a semi final side, they always manage to get there and their group is not too difficult. If this guy ends up getting 5 goals then you will be making profit. 

Betfair Exchange has a top scorer - top 4 market if you're interested. I think Werner is 4.6 on there at the time of writing this. Should be noted that liquidity is poor unless backing Neymar or Ronaldo.

[Mindfulness]

Paddy Power are offering 6 places each way on their top scorer market, E/W is 1/5 the price here.

Thomas Muller - Top Goalscorer @ 31.0 E/W Paddy Power

I'm with @HastGill1 on this selection, Muller has a good track record at international level and is usually in the starting lineup of a team that could get to the latter stages of the tournament.

Philippe Coutinho - Top Goalscorer @ 51.0 E/W Paddy Power

Coutinho maybe going under the radar a little heading into this tournament with all the talk about Neymar and Jesus. The Barcelona man looks like he will start the first game which is encouraging and I think there is some value in backing him at these long odds.

Raheem Sterling - Top Goalscorer @ 81.0 E/W Paddy Power

I know the punters will try and gun me down for this one given Sterling's tepid scoring record for the national side. Despite this, Tunisia and Panama and arguably 2 of the poorest sides in the tournament and although they will probably sit back and play 10 behind the ball; either match could present an opportunity for England to score heavy due to the gulf in quality. Belgium on the other hand will play cavalier under Martinez and this will simply play into the hands of Sterling & Co with lots of space to run in behind. The most problematic issue for this selection is the unlikelyhood of England progressing to the latter stages, hopefully the early rounds will provide Raheem with enough ammunition to go ballistic and pierce the armour of his opponents.

[chiroden]

Wow, nice odds

didnt expect so!

[StevieDay1983]

On 6/3/2018 at 1:05 AM, Mindfulness said:

Paddy Power are offering 6 places each way on their top scorer market, E/W is 1/5 the price here.

Thomas Muller - Top Goalscorer @ 31.0 E/W Paddy Power

I'm with @HastGill1 on this selection, Muller has a good track record at international level and is usually in the starting lineup of a team that could get to the latter stages of the tournament.

Philippe Coutinho - Top Goalscorer @ 51.0 E/W Paddy Power

Coutinho maybe going under the radar a little heading into this tournament with all the talk about Neymar and Jesus. The Barcelona man looks like he will start the first game which is encouraging and I think there is some value in backing him at these long odds.

Raheem Sterling - Top Goalscorer @ 81.0 E/W Paddy Power

I know the punters will try and gun me down for this one given Sterling's tepid scoring record for the national side. Despite this, Tunisia and Panama and arguably 2 of the poorest sides in the tournament and although they will probably sit back and play 10 behind the ball; either match could present an opportunity for England to score heavy due to the gulf in quality. Belgium on the other hand will play cavalier under Martinez and this will simply play into the hands of Sterling & Co with lots of space to run in behind. The most problematic issue for this selection is the unlikelyhood of England progressing to the latter stages, hopefully the early rounds will provide Raheem with enough ammunition to go ballistic and pierce the armour of his opponents.

That Thomas Muller bet looks a worldy. Some players just know how to score at the World Cup. I'm thinking of the likes of Miroslav Klose, Toto Schillachi, Gary Lineker, and Jon Dahl Tomasson. I would also include Muller in that group. I can certainly see him finishing top 6. Possibly even higher.

[Sir Puntalot]

Only found this out the other day, that "The Golden Boot" is not the same as "Top Goalscorer" - Golden Boot is player of the tournament, but I'm sure they were the same at some stage!  

Anyway, these days it's 2 different markets.

[StevieDay1983]

2 hours ago, Sir Puntalot said:

Only found this out the other day, that "The Golden Boot" is not the same as "Top Goalscorer" - Golden Boot is player of the tournament, but I'm sure they were the same at some stage!  

Anyway, these days it's 2 different markets.

I thought Golden Ball was player of the tournament?

[harry_rag]

Yeah, do you want to either confirm or retract that statement? See this post above and the one that follows it where I rattled on at great length about the differences between a "pure" top goalscorer market, Golden Boot and Golden Ball. Be embarrassing if I typed all that and wasn't even right! 

 

[harry_rag]

I couldn't wait for the clarification, had to check FIFA website!

"The Golden Ball will go to the competition’s best player. FIFA will announce a shortlist of ten players after the semi-finals. The Technical Study Group of FIFA will decide on the winner until the end of the Final. The players who finish second and third will receive the adidas Silver Ball and adidas Bronze Ball respectively."

"The leading goalscorer at every FIFA World Cup™ finals is awarded the adidas Golden Boot. If two or more players are tied on goals, the winner will be decided by the total assists. If assists cannot split them, the players who played the least minutes will emerge with the prize."

So Golden Boot is, essentially top goalscorer but with the assists/minutes played criteria applying rather than dead heat rules.

Edited June 5, 2018 by harry_rag
Added some bold text

[StevieDay1983]

14 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

I couldn't wait for the clarification, had to check FIFA website!

"The Golden Ball will go to the competition’s best player. FIFA will announce a shortlist of ten players after the semi-finals. The Technical Study Group of FIFA will decide on the winner until the end of the Final. The players who finish second and third will receive the adidas Silver Ball and adidas Bronze Ball respectively."

"The leading goalscorer at every FIFA World Cup™ finals is awarded the adidas Golden Boot. If two or more players are tied on goals, the winner will be decided by the total assists. If assists cannot split them, the players who played the least minutes will emerge with the prize."

So Golden Boot is, essentially top goalscorer but with the assists/minutes played criteria applying rather than dead heat rules.

They have to bloody over-complicate things don't they! 

[harry_rag]

An organisation that sometimes doesn't know its arse from its elbow making it difficult for the rest of us to distinguish between our boots and our balls! 

[Sir Puntalot]

I'm off for a lie down after reading that...  

[StevieDay1983]

So to summarise in the tournament the Golden Boot is top scorer and the Golden Ball is best player. However, when it comes to the bookies, the Golden Boot and top scorer markets have the winners distinguished in different ways.

[harry_rag]

1 hour ago, StevieDay1983 said:

So to summarise in the tournament the Golden Boot is top scorer and the Golden Ball is best player. However, when it comes to the bookies, the Golden Boot and top scorer markets have the winners distinguished in different ways.

Essentially, yes. Golden Ball (best player) is a subjective award which, some conspiracy theories would have it, has an unusual tendency to be given to players wearing the boots of award sponsors Adidas! 

Golden Boot is an objective award given to the top goalscorer with assists and minutes played used as criteria in the event of a tie.

Most bookmakers are still betting on "top goalscorer" so you would expect dead heat rules to apply in the event of a tie (most don't bother to make this clear though).

Skybet are clearly betting on the golden boot award as per Fifa criteria. Unibet/888 also call their market golden boot but don't seem to make it entirely clear about the criteria. 

In terms of the lack of clarity, it's a poor show given the problems this market has caused in the past.

I suspect most firms will go "all in, play or not" so if you've backed someone who didn't make the squad you may have done your dough.

[harry_rag]

SPIN up with their Golden Boot index - might be of interest to any of the spread dudes. I've had a very cheap buy of Paulinho at 1.5.

It pays as follows; 100 points for the winner then 75, 50, 33, 25, 20, 10 and 5 down to 8th place. Dead heat rules apply in the event of a tie, e.g. a two way tie for 2nd and 3rd would share 83 points.

I've looked at the 5 World Cups since it extended to 32 teams and this is how many points various totals have been worth:

6+ goals: Only 3 players have managed this feat, Ronaldo with 8 in 2002, Suker with 6 in 1998 and Rodriguez with 6 in 2014, all clear winners earning 100 points.

5 goals: Klose is the only other player to win the 100 point maximum with 5 goals in 2006. In the other 4 years, 5 goals would have earned you 64.5 or 62.5 points for a share of either 1st or 2nd place or 75 points for clear second (Muller in 2014).

4 goals: Worth between 18.33 points and 36 points in the 4 years when any player scored that number.

3 goals: Worth 27.25 points in 2006 for an 8 way tie for 2nd place and 7 in 2014 for a 5 way tie for 6th place, besides that, never worth more than 3.89 points.

2 goals: Never worth any points on this index.

So, on that basis, you're looking for a player who you fancy to score at least 3 goals to get any return with 4 showing a decent profit on a cheap buy.

[StevieDay1983]

On 6/6/2018 at 4:21 PM, harry_rag said:

Essentially, yes. Golden Ball (best player) is a subjective award which, some conspiracy theories would have it, has an unusual tendency to be given to players wearing the boots of award sponsors Adidas! 

I didn't know Adidas sponsored the award! It now makes sense why Lionel Messi won it at the last World Cup even though he wasn't the best player at the tournament. Do we have a list of players that could be in contention that are under the Adidas brand sponsorship?

[waynecoyne]

1 hour ago, StevieDay1983 said:

I didn't know Adidas sponsored the award! It now makes sense why Lionel Messi won it at the last World Cup even though he wasn't the best player at the tournament. Do we have a list of players that could be in contention that are under the Adidas brand sponsorship?

adidas: messi, jesus, d silva, suarez, ozil, pogba, muller, werner, james, di maria, diego costa, alli, salah, firmino,

nike: neymar, Ronaldo, hazard, kane, isco, de bruyne, mbappe, iniesta, coutinho, cavani, modric, sterling

puma: griezmann, aguero

I've gone for iniesta at 40

adidas players won every comp since 2002 so last 4

just to add some reasoning for iniesta: it isn't the best player who wins, there's usually a semtimental factor. this is his last world cup and it could turn out to be some sort of tribute from the journalists. to illustrate the not best player who wins comment-diego forlan won it .

Edited June 8, 2018 by waynecoyne

[Icongene]

Ended up going for a long shot.

Lukaku at 21/1.

Belgium have a relatively easy group and even finishing 2nd should still give them a winnable tie in the next round.

Belgium has so much creative talent that if they go far (Quarters or Semis) then Lukaku is likely to have bagged a few on the back of this. 

Edited June 12, 2018 by Icongene