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How does the latest result effect odds.

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Can anyone explain to me how the latest result, and latest H2H result will affect the odds of the same fixture again? Imagine a situation 1 year from now: Man Utd and Southampton have two very important back to back fixtures.The last league game followed by the FA cup final. Assume that the league game was very important to both sides: Man united need a win to secure the premiership title and Southampton need a win to avoid relegation. Before the last league game the bookies had Southampton at 10.0 to win the FA cup after 90 mins. The league game ended in a draw, how exactly would the bookies now price up Southampton's chances of winning?

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Does anyone have any figures to describe how a draw affects the odds of the same fixture again? The reason that I am asking is because I am trying to model “correct score in extra time” odds from each draw from 0-0 to 4-4. I only have the odds of correct score in full time before kickoff available. I only want to account for the fact that it was a draw and the amount of goals scored. As every extra time period is essentially a 30 miniute match with a very recent result of h2h record of a draw.

Edited by Jimbo123
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