May 21 - May 27

[CzechPunter]

[CzechPunter]

Melnikova - Safarova moved to Monday, bet remains.

Jared Donaldson to beat Denis Istomin at 1.57 with Marathonbet

Both guys are on losing streaks at the moment, but a closer look reveals that Donaldson has been doing much better, with losses only against strong opposition. Istomin also seems to be having some health issues at the moment.

Shuai Zhang to beat Fanny Stollar at 1.51 with Pinnacle

Zhang underrated once again imo. Slightly worried given that this is a pre-GS week, but she's way better than Stollar.

[KennyDelight]

Pauline Parmentier 1.50 to beat Yafan Wang Bet365 @ Strasbourg Open

Yafan Wang rarely plays on clay and struggled against less experienced Asian opponents in the 250 Anning tournament in China .Parmentier will be on a high after winning the Istanbul clay tournament and with home ground motivation.

Happy to back Parmentier in this one

 

[four-leaf]

3 bets for me today

Mandy Minella to beat Alison Riske at 2.50 with bet365

Mandy coming in to maindraw after winning in straight sets in both her qualifying matches and she's done it well. Clay is defenitely a surface that suits Mandy better than Alison who is at her best on hardcourt and grass and Riskes form and motivation is highly questionable on clay. One match between them in 2010 which Alison won in straight sets in Rancho Mirage in California on hard. That result doesn't matter here. Mandys ranking is at 307 because she's been away after having her first child. She's back and playing well again so I think she might just nick this one likely in straight sets.

For jackpot: Mandy Minella -1.5 sets at 4.00 with bet365

John Millman to beat Nicolas Kicker at 1.80 with bet365

John is confident now having reached his first ATP final and winning a clay challenger. He's playing good on the red stuff and should be up for a victory today. Nicolas has no form to speak of so it just feels as if John will likely take this as I don't see how he could be playing bad enough to lose a match like this right now. Lately Nicolas had a shot to play at home on clay in a DC rubber v Chile but lost and got replaced by Guido Pella. I don't know why he got picked over Guido Pella to represent Argentina in that rubber and in this matchup John has the better form.

Peter Gojowczyk to beat Ivo Karlovic at 1.72 with bet365

Peter did well for me last week beating this italian guy and he's beaten Ivo before last season acctually in Newport and clay is as most people know not Ivos prefered surface and Peter has a good gameplan nowadays and knows how to beat Ivo.

For jackpot: Peter Gojowczyk -1.5 sets at 2.75 with bet365

Edited May 21, 2018 by four-leaf

[Urosito]

14 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Shuai Zhang to beat Fanny Stollar at 1.51 with Pinnacle

Zhang underrated once again imo. Slightly worried given that this is a pre-GS week, but she's way better than Stollar.

Also believed this is a safe bet, but Zhang is literally playing the worst match I've ever seen from a professional tennis player.

[CzechPunter]

Yeah, the pre-GS week factor was too strong .

[liquidglass]

4 hours ago, Urosito said:

Also believed this is a safe bet, but Zhang is literally playing the worst match I've ever seen from a professional tennis player.

Agreed that Zhang is playing awful as you point out. But fanny in terms of progressive tennis is not the kind of player that you should be putting safe bets against especially in her current form. She is a real talent with a big future well capable of ruffling a few feathers amidst mixing with the elite of the sport.

[yogg]

21 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Yeah, the pre-GS week factor was too strong .

I'll be going to watch Zhang and Buzarnescu at Surbiton ITF in early June. 

Edited May 22, 2018 by yogg

[yogg]

Rybakina vs Buzarnescu - WTA Strasbourg

this could be tricky for Buzarnescu against the Russian teenager who's no mug (she beat Garcia earlier this season) is on the up and has an excellent serve.

I think Buzarnescu will win 2-1 (4.00 @ Unibet)

but I'll go Rybakina +1.5 sets @ 2.10 with Unibet.

[yogg]

3 hours ago, yogg said:

Rybakina vs Buzarnescu - WTA Strasbourg

this could be tricky for Buzarnescu against the Russian teenager who's no mug (she beat Garcia earlier this season) is on the up and has an excellent serve.

I think Buzarnescu will win 2-1 (4.00 @ Unibet)

but I'll go Rybakina +1.5 sets @ 2.10 with Unibet.

sorry guys, Rybakina's serve let her down today in the 1st set and the tiebreak 

[Brian Bertelli]

Hi ! What do you think about the performance of wawrinka and Ferrer today? They possible to win ? 

[liquidglass]

RUS VS ARCANGIOLI (Rolland Garros Qualifiers W)

By my reckoning Arcangioli at 9/2 would seem the gift of the day considering the h2h at 1-1 and with Arcangioli winning on clay. Arcangioli is already 13/6 this year on clay against Rus 9/5. Her current form in last 4 games might not read well but having beaten players like Trevisan  and Zarazua already this year. this is too glaring an opportunity to let slip. My bet as always is one with safety in mind. Arcangioli to win a set 13/8 Paddypower(9/10)

[CzechPunter]

Trying to back Wawrinka is suicide these days I'm afraid. Either oppose or stay away.

[CzechPunter]

Jared Donaldson (+1.5 sets) to beat Stanislas Wawrinka at 1.71 with Pinnacle

Going to oppose Wawrinka, he really has been dreadful so far in this season. Donaldson had a nice comeback against Istomin in the first round, seemed to like the conditions, should be competitive.

 

[yogg]

the odds on Wawrinka are outrageous, however he has class and playing at home is an extra pump so I'm not so sure CP 

[four-leaf]

I'm surprised nobody mentioned Peter Gojowczyk today. Should have posted him to beat David Ferrer myself.

[Brian Bertelli]

Well i take wawrinka and taro Daniel for tomorrow. I hope win 

[Brian Bertelli]

4 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Jared Donaldson (+1.5 sets) to beat Stanislas Wawrinka at 1.71 with Pinnacle

Going to oppose Wawrinka, he really has been dreadful so far in this season. Donaldson had a nice comeback against Istomin in the first round, seemed to like the conditions, should be competitive.

 

I saw donaldson last week vs Carreño busta. He played in a good form on clay but he lost

[four-leaf]

Two bets for me today

Jay Clarke to beat Bernard Tomic at 2.75 with bet365

Jay is a 19 year old teenager and he can follow in the same steps as Kyle Edmund. Seen him play a few times on clay so far this season and he's very dangerous, he's got a good game. Sure he's doing a lot of unforced errors but also hits a lot of winners that makes up for the errors, he's surely on the rise. Bernard is always worth to oppose nowadays and clay is not a surface he can excel on. Jay is worth a try. Bernard is always in the riskzone of being eliminated in tournaments on clay. Jay has the talent to beat Bernard and can hustle his way to victory here. Only thing that scares me from opposing Bernard is his serve and it seems to be working well on clay. Unless the name Tomic scares you this is a good bet since Bernard at 1.40 is a bit to low or Jay at 2.75 is to high.

Hugo Dellien to beat Adam Pavlasek at 2.25 with bet365

Hugo is going strong nowadays and his biggest goal this year is to qualify for RG, a goal which he set up after winning his first challenger title in april. Adam is not going strong nowadays and needs a big reset to get back to where he once was. Hugo has confidence and is playing well now so I'm defenitely on the bolivian to win this. I know what makes the czech the favourite here since he is at his best on clay but all his done this season is winning a clay challenger in Rome just before Rome masters where he beat a fatigued Laslo Djere in the final. Should be 50/50 this match not 1.57-2.25. Adam also never really has passed the RG qualies except for 2016 when he lost to Laslo Djere in the qualies final round but got in as a lucky loser which doesn't count.

[four-leaf]

Two more bets for me today

Su-Wei Hsieh to beat Lucie Safarova at 1.80 with bet365

Best form on clay right now of these two is ofcourse Su-Wei who has. Lucie is short on match practice so for her to win this match would be a surprise for me. I think Lucie got what she wanted in Strasbourg, she won a match and gets two matches to play for some match practice ahead of RG. Su-Wei is in good form now and will win this in my book.

Bradley Mousley to beat Emil Ruusuvuori at 2.75 with bet365

Can't understand how the bookie is thinking here by making the aussie underdog since Emil has yet to make anything big happen in his young career. He's from Finland like Jarkko Nieminen but Jarkko reached the Stockholm open final only 17 years old so he's got some big shoes to fill and I don't think he's good enough yet to beat a guy like Bradley who is 5 years older and ranked 270 spots higher and who already has beaten a few top 200 players this season. Bradley has lost almost 8 matches in a row to some top 200 players in Mexico and France so it probably makes him the underdog but Emil is not a top 200 player.

[WaveRunner]

Anyone else like the look of N Rubin to win vs Fognini @ 3.82 (Pinnacle)

I might put a small amount on this long shot, Fognini has never been one for consistency and I can't see him having a lot of motivation after such a good run at his home tournament in Rome last week. A week before a grand slam I just don't see the Italian giving his best here. Does anyone else agree / disagree? 

[four-leaf]

One more bet for me today

Lukas Lacko to beat (-1.5 sets) Yosuke Watanuki at 2.20 with bet365

At 20 years old Yosuke is ranked 283 and he took a set from Vasek Pospisil last saturday in the Busan semifinal but I happened to be awake then and watched the livestream at bet365 and Vasek was horrible, just plain awful and so was the japanese and deservedly Vasek lost the final easily in straight sets to Matt Ebden. Apart from playing just crap all match and taking a set of an equally crappy canadian he's now only at 2.50 to win this match against a top 100 player he's never faced before. He ofcourse never has beaten a top 100 player either but come on he just played a long tournament in Busan and has travelled to England from South Korea and now he's a bit expected to do miracles on hardcourt in europe. Apart from being a clear underdog he's likely tired and will come up against a seasoned pro veteran with a big first serve. Vasek played really bad and didn't even get his big first serve going and didn't even deserve to win the match but won probably because of more experience. Yosuke really needs experience to be able to beat top 200 players consistenly. But here in this match I'm afraid he'll get outserved and will not be able to win a set. Only negative about this bet is that I haven't seen Lukas play lately but he played quite well in Bratislava challenger last season winning the final in straight sets against Marius Copil. Long time ago now I know but still he's first seeded and it's gonna take a lot for him to lose a set here, he'll have to play as bad as Vasek for that to work.

[four-leaf]

31 minutes ago, WaveRunner said:

Anyone else like the look of N Rubin to win vs Fognini @ 3.82 (Pinnacle)

I might put a small amount on this long shot, Fognini has never been one for consistency and I can't see him having a lot of motivation after such a good run at his home tournament in Rome last week. A week before a grand slam I just don't see the Italian giving his best here. Does anyone else agree / disagree? 

I agree but I don't like going for bets thinking a higher ranked player will tank it because of a grand slam around the corner but Noah at 3.75 with bet365 would be good enough for me.

[yogg]

Pavlyuchenkova vs Vikhlyantseva WTA Strasbourg

Pavlyuchenkova to win 2-0 @ 2.50 with Unibet

Pavlyuchenkova should have far too much for Vikhlyantseva to handle who made 35 unforced errors against Mrdeza the other day and will probably be her undoing here.

good luck with your betting guys.

[CzechPunter]

@WaveRunner I'd say that there's certainly a shade of value in those odds. My preference would be to wait for the live betting though.

[liquidglass]

8 hours ago, WaveRunner said:

Anyone else like the look of N Rubin to win vs Fognini @ 3.82 (Pinnacle)

I might put a small amount on this long shot, Fognini has never been one for consistency and I can't see him having a lot of motivation after such a good run at his home tournament in Rome last week. A week before a grand slam I just don't see the Italian giving his best here. Does anyone else agree / disagree? 

I do not think this should have anything to do with a week before a slam. In my opinion Fognini has nothing to aim for within the context of a slam. Tennis for him now should just be about trying to earn a living without ambitions. Even without the slam and tanking factor, this really is a losable match for Fognini against a young player in potent form. Rubin should win a set at minimum asking!

[yogg]

Bertens vs Barthel - WTA Nurnberg

early start for these tomorrow and I'm pretty sure an early bath too for an out of form Barthel against a very much in form Bertens.

Bertens to win 2-0 @ 1.71 with 10Bet

the odds are dropping on this. 

good luck all 

[four-leaf]

Andreas Seppi/Peter Gojowczyk first set tie break at 4.00 with bet365

Odds will not drop on this, it should stay at 4 and I think this is a very likely outcome of first set because both are serving very well and breaks will not come easy for anyone here. Since odds likely will not drop until match starts this can be backed until just before the match. Peter is yet to drop serve and Andreas are usually equally hard to break so why not a tie-break in first set.

Edit: Just discovered that again Paddypower is higher on this bet with either player to win first set 7-6 at 5.00 so I'm taking the same bet on both bookies.

Edited May 24, 2018 by four-leaf

[four-leaf]

One more bet from me for today

Caroline Dolehide to beat (-1.5 sets) Marie Bouzkova at 2.37 with bet365

19 year old Caroline is one of the better american next gen players coming up right now and she should be top 100 very soon, maybe before Wimbledon. She's a big hitting player with the obligatory big first serve so she can throw in an ace from time to time and she's capable of blowing her less good opponents of the court even on clay and I think Marie is one of those less good opponents. I'm confident Caroline will win so why not try her in straight sets since she's just 1.57 to win outright and I like taking that extra risk. From what I've seen of Caroline since last year in august when I saw her first time on bet365 livestream she's extremely or just very talented at serving and can put big pressure on her opponents serve. She often goes to tie-breaks if needed and is strong in that department. Currently she's not just in form as she is consistently as good as she's been showing lately.

[four-leaf]

One last bet from me for today

Reilly Opelka to beat Jozef Kovalik at 1.72 with bet365

Reilly is really one in-form american on clay. Jozef has no form, we could see that in davis cup when he lost to Mirza Basic in straight sets. I don't think Jozef will break Reilly. Ernests Gulbis had to fight hard to even get one break last saturday. Reilly is not just serving strong because his baseline game is also on a high level but one thing he sucks at is dropshots but luckily he doesn't try that to often since he mostly fails. He tried one dropshot last saturday and failed so if he doesn't try to many dropshots in this match I think he wins in straight sets.

For jackpot: Reilly Opelka -1.5 sets at 2.88 with Paddypower

Edited May 24, 2018 by four-leaf