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Swinton Handicap Hurdle Tips & Trends 2018


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First big handicap of the new jumps season on Saturday

3:10Haydock12 MAY 2018ITV4

1m7½f (1m7f144y) Pertemps Network Swinton Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) (Class 1) (4yo+)
 
Previous Winners
 
Screen Shot 2018-05-08 at 09.56.53.png
 
9/10 ran within 36 days
8/10 6yo or older
8/10 rated below 140
7/10 carried 11st or less
15/21 finished first 4 last time
 
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Saturdays big flat handicap - Victoria Cup 

4:00Ascot12 MAY 2018ITV4

7f Totescoop6 Victoria Cup (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) (4yo+)
 
Previous Winners
 
Screen Shot 2018-05-08 at 18.25.26.png
 
9/10 age 6 or less
8/10 had a run within 31 days
7/10 Drawn in double figures
8/10 rated under 100
15/21 finished first 5 last time out
14/21 Won at 7f before
 
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Swinton Hurdle

Trends Selection

9/10 ran within 36 days
We lose John Constable, Silver Streak, Hassle, William H Bonney

8/10 6yo or older
We lose Fourth Bridge, Act Of Valour, Lord Napier, Ashkoul

8/10 rated below 140
We lose Dear Sire, Chesterfield, The Unit, Sizing Granite, Optimus Prime
 
15/21 finished first 4 last time
We lose Capitane
 
Selections
1pt EW Havana Beat 12/1 bet365
1pt EW All Set To Go 16/1 bet365
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Victoria Cup

Trends Selection

9/10 age 6 or less
We lose Shady McCoy, Charles Molson

8/10 had a run within 31 days
We lose Zhui Feng, The Grape Escape, Mr Scaramange, Raisning Sand, Escobar, Sabador, Kynren
Louie De Palma, Nicholas T, Pouvoir Magique, Makaarim, Six Strings.

7/10 Drawn in double figures
We lsoe Keyser Soze, Brillaint Vanguard, Via Serendipity, Poets Society

8/10 rated under 100
We lose Firmamentt, Tony Curtis, Silent Attack

15/21 finished first 5 last time out
We lose Gilgamesh, Burnt Sugar, Masham Star
 
14/21 Won at 7f before
We lose Repercussion, 
 
18/19 only had 2 or fewer runs this season
We lose Rip Orf, Sea Fox
 
Selections
1pt EW Get Knotted 25/1 Betfair
1pt EW Spanish City 16/1 Bet365
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Victoria cup 

Via serendipity    344

Kynren     341 

Keyser soze    336

Louie De palma  334 

Hugely open race ....complete pinsticker .....draw could play a part too.....Louie De palma is the dark horse ....hasn' run for over 1000 days but has been heavily backed in recent days ....but I cant' be on a horse with that profile against a cavalry charge ...could be a coup horse though so you make your own mind up on that one .....keyser soze has been running well but looks very exposed now ......so that leaves top two .....kynren has been in really good form and has been putting in some good times so thex12/1 looks very good value .......top rated is 40/1 ?????......ran an absolute cracker on all weather and clock says that time was classy ....now comes to turf but fast ground very much in favour and time was over 7f so 40/1 looks staggering value ......gotta play 

Kynren  10pts ew 12/1 corals 

Via serendipity   10pts ew 40/1 paddyp

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I've had a look at the Victoria Cup and eliminated horses based on ......

not having won over 7F before (specialist distance)

being exposed (combination of age and not having won more than 3 times)

not having had a run this season

carrying more than 8-10

not drawn in the outside half of the track

The 29 runners have become 2.........

Sea Fox at 50/1

Spanish City at 14/1

I see that BH has also come up with Spanish City using some different trends so maybe that's the one ?

I think I'll stick Sea Fox in the NAPS comp because of the bigger odds !

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Swinton

Eliminated horses based on ......

Being exposed (combination of age and not having won more than 3 races)

Weight of 11-5 and over

Not having run within 7 weeks

Not being in the handicap (deleted 2 horses out of the Hcap)

I've got 2 left .......

Forth Bridge at 16/1

Lord Napier 28/1

 

 

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Ive had a really decent e/w bet on ALL SET TO GO in the swinton hurdle i think this horse  will run a hell of race off current weight good Jockey booked has had 2 runs back after long layoff was 2nd in this 2 years ago looks well overpriced at 16/1 in my world and a cracking e/w imo.

Good Luck All

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22 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

Victoria cup 

Via serendipity    344

Kynren     341 

Keyser soze    336

Louie De palma  334 

Hugely open race ....complete pinsticker .....draw could play a part too.....Louie De palma is the dark horse ....hasn' run for over 1000 days but has been heavily backed in recent days ....but I cant' be on a horse with that profile against a cavalry charge ...could be a coup horse though so you make your own mind up on that one .....keyser soze has been running well but looks very exposed now ......so that leaves top two .....kynren has been in really good form and has been putting in some good times so thex12/1 looks very good value .......top rated is 40/1 ?????......ran an absolute cracker on all weather and clock says that time was classy ....now comes to turf but fast ground very much in favour and time was over 7f so 40/1 looks staggering value ......gotta play 

Kynren  10pts ew 12/1 corals 

Via serendipity   10pts ew 40/1 paddyp

Finished on a heap ...5th ..less than a length separating first 5..nooooooo...kynren non runner

Edited by richard-westwood
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Sea Fox was placed ..... 3rd

I put it up EW in the Naps comp so that's a result

Slight disappointment ........ my cable TV and broadband has been down for a week (and is likely to be for some time) so I was stuck with ITV4 and I think it was John Hunt never mentioned my horse but a horse called Sea Deer apparently ran a cracker......

 

 

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