Football Model, volunteers required

[YorkshireFootyFan]

Hello, 

I wonder if anyone would be interested in helping me conduct an experiment. I want to apply some Wisdom Of The Crowd thinking to a football model. 

For more information on WOTC read here https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wisdom_of_the_crowd .

I would be asking participants to predict how they expect teams to perform (perform and not results) against their own standard level. So if we used a scale of 0-10, you might predict say for Manchester City at home to Burnley, you might anticipate Man City playing at an 8 and Burnley at a 3, I would then apply this to my model to generate, expected goals whiich would then be simulated through a random match model to generate odds. I would send you your match odds, and I would publish for all participants to see the collective data/odds.

I might run a short pilot on this during the summer for the MLS or a Scandinavian league to see how it goes and to fine tune it for the start of the UK season. 

Is anyone interested in helping.

[YorkshireFootyFan]

I have just done a sample match of a similar project with some rugby following friends, and the sample went very well. It didn't really turn up any bets for the crowd but the prices were very close to the odds offered by the bookmakers. As you would expect the individual prices I also supplied to the contributors identified some bets for the outliers.

I do have a track record of successful modelling, and the above requirements from yourselves are not that great. Is no one interested?

[Grex]

Good luck with finding volunteers. One of the reasons there haven't been any takers could be down to the leagues that you are focussing on - MLS and Scandinavian leagues. You want people to give performance scores for teams that very few people have any knowledge of.

You may be better to wait until the start of next season and concentrate on the European "big" leagues.

[Valiant Thor]

I think you will struggle with your volunteers for the reasons Grex gives above plus the sample size would be nowhere near what is needed.

If using Betfair prices (large sample size),the market in football IMO is as efficient as it can be regarding WOC or Weight of Money as BF call it so trying to find outliers certainly isn't going to be that simple or profitable with a small sample size.

Good luck with your quest

Reading this will save you a lot of time and effort

Edited May 4, 2018 by Valiant Thor
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[moggis]

Apart from what has already been said I dont understand how anyone can possibly have the faintest idea how well or badly a team is likely to perform in their next game (whether in relation to their normal performance or not ) unless they have just played very well or very badlly in which case they might be more likely to play less well or less badly .

 

Edited May 23, 2018 by moggis