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2000 Guineas Tips & Trends 2018


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Classic weekend at Newmarket with the 2000 Guineas on Saturday followed by the 1000 Guineas on Sunday.

Also we have the very competitive Palace House Stakes (2.20 Sat).

 

3.35 Newmarket
1m (Row) Qipco 2000 Guineas Stakes (Group 1) (British Champions Series) (Class 1) (3yo)

Previous Winners
Screen Shot 2018-04-30 at 12.37.32.png

Trends
9/10 Rated 109 or higher (other winner made debut)
8/10 Making seasonal reappearance
7/10 Drawn 6 or under
19/21 First 3 last time out
18/21 First 6 in betting
14/21 Never ran over a mile previously
 

Screen Shot 2018-04-30 at 12.38.26.png

 

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3.35 Newmarket (Sunday)

1m (Row) Qipco 1000 Guineas Stakes (Group 1) (British Champions Series) (Class 1) (3yo)

Previous Winners

Screen Shot 2018-04-30 at 12.39.40.png

Trends
8/12 Won at Group level before
7/10 Rated 106 or higher
7/10 Drawn 8 or lower
16/21 Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
20/21 Not had more than 1 run this season
16/21 Had not won beyond 7f

 

Screen Shot 2018-04-30 at 12.40.07.png

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2.20 Newmarket (Saturday)

Longholes Palace House Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 (3yo+) 5f

Previous Winners

Screen Shot 2018-04-30 at 12.41.23.png

Trends
9/10 Aged 6 and under
8/10 Making seasonal debut
8/10 Rated 107 or above
16/21 Placed last time out (11 won)
13/21 First 4 in betting
17/21 Won at this trip before
18/21 Drawn 12 or under



Prices bet365

Screen Shot 2018-05-01 at 08.30.15.png

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2000 guineas

Saxon warrior.    423

Roaring lion.    421 

Masar.     411

Gustav klimpt 411

Saxon warrior looked a perfect guineas type when last seen ....hasn' had the attention of Gustav klimpt but looks the stronger guineas contender to me .....roaring lion disappointed recently but I think everyone and his dog can see he ran no sort of race ....maybe he just wasn' fit or wasnt ready who knows but shouldn't be written off .....if he runs his huge price is very interesting especially as home reports suggest he has found his sparkle ....one to watch 

Saxon warrior 10 pts win 11/2 sportb

Roaring lion if confirmed 

 

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53 minutes ago, Valiant Thor said:

Did anyone see the Mick Channon interview yesterday

When asked about Dans Dream he said 

Rather a brave statement, but by the way he's got his horses atm ,never 1 to disregard

Yeah he was very bullish and never afraid to take the big boys on. Have to say it looks there for the taking:ok

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Palace house stakes 

Havana grey 367 

Byltang rock 357

Encore dor  357 

Alpha delphini 355 

Open and classy race.....Havana grey looked to be improving in leaps and bounds in the flying childers only going down narrowly giving the winner 3lb ...the pair 4.5 lengths clear of rest.....if in the same frame of mind will be hard to peg back 

Havana grey 10pts win 4/1 bet365

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On 30/04/2018 at 9:22 PM, richard-westwood said:

2000 guineas

Saxon warrior.    423

Roaring lion.    421 

Masar.     411

Gustav klimpt 411

Saxon warrior looked a perfect guineas type when last seen ....hasn' had the attention of Gustav klimpt but looks the stronger guineas contender to me .....roaring lion disappointed recently but I think everyone and his dog can see he ran no sort of race ....maybe he just wasn' fit or wasnt ready who knows but shouldn't be written off .....if he runs his huge price is very interesting especially as home reports suggest he has found his sparkle ....one to watch 

Saxon warrior 10 pts win 11/2 sportb

Roaring lion if confirmed 

 

10pts win roaring lion 16/1 bet365 nrnb 

Plus 3pt ew doubles with both 1000 and 2000 guineas top 2 

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2000 Guineas Final Decs

Screen Shot 2018-05-03 at 11.07.00.png

Trends Selection
9/10 Rated 109 or higher (other made debut)
We lose Headway, Murillo, Nebo, Raid, Rajasinge, Tip Two Win


8/10 Making seasonal reappearance
We lose Cardsharp, James Garfield, Expert Eye, Gustav Klimt, Masar, Roaring Lion


14/21 Never ran over a mile previously
We lose Saxon Warrior

Selection
1pt Elarqam 11/2 Paddy Power

 

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1000 Guineas

Screen Shot 2018-05-04 at 13.48.38.png

 

Trends

7/10 Rated 106 or higher
We lose Altyn Orda, Billesdon Brook, Dans Dream, I Can Fly. Liquid Amber
Sarrochi, Sizzling, Vitamin, Worship


7/10 Drawn 8 or lower

16/21 Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
We lose Happily, Madeline

16/21 Had not won beyond 7f
We lose Wild Illusion, Soliloquay, Laurens

Left with:


1pt EW Anna Nerium 14/1 Bet365

 

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Palace House Stakes

Done trends based on - 

age, class of race won before (Listed or Group),won over 5f before

short list of 3 - Encore D'Or, Mabs Cross, Havana Grey

Encore D'or is much better on the AW and I'm not keen on 3yo in the early season against older horses so I'll go with the filly ......

Mab's Cross win at 5/1 Paddypower

 

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The 2000 Guineas looks wide open and punters might best be advised spreading their stakes across more than one selection; not a race for each way betting.

The Palace House is more clearcut; Havana Grey has a much higher rating than 3 year olds that usually run in this race and at round about 9/4 is a bet to beat what looks like a motley crew of hasbeens and glorified handicappers.

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Havana Grey does look the best horse in the race by some way but there are some doubts about him

- has he trained on from 2 or 3

- will he need a run on seasonal debut

- will he be fully wound up given that his main target will be the Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot in a months time

 

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3.35 – Qipco 2000 Guineas Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1)
16/16 – Finished in the top 3 last time out   (1,9,10,11)
14/16 – Had won over at least 7f before   (8)
14/16 – Had won a Group race before   (5,14)
14/16 – Had won between 2-5 times before   
12/16 – Won last time out   (3,12)
11/16 – Having their first run of the season   (4,6,7)
9/16 – Had won just 2 or 3 times in their career before   
9/16 – Won by an Irish-based yard   (2)
 

All of the above leaves me with Saxon Warrior 5 Pts Win @ 7\2 Bet365

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2.20 - Longholes Palace House Stakes (Group 3) 
14/15 – Had won over 5f before   
13/15 – Won 3 or more times before   (4)
13/15 – Had won a Listed or Group race before   (3,6,7)
12/15 – Had run at Newmarket before   (8,9)
11/15 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out   (5)
10/15 – Rated between 108 and 114 
10/15 – Aged 5 or younger
8/15 – Won last time out
5/15 – Ran at Newmarket last time out

Down this far and cannot separate the top two:

Alpha Delphini and Encore D'or  @ 7\1 Bet365 and 11\1 Bet365 respectively.

Someone stated above that Encore D'or would be a better AW horse so

Alpha Delphini 5 Pts Win @ 7\1 Bet365

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3.35 – Qipco 1,000 Guineas Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) (Fillies) 
15/16 – Placed in the top 3 last time out   (3,5,9,10,11 )
12/16 – Had won a Group race before   (6,13,15)
12/16 – Had won between 2-3 times before   (1,8)
11/16 – Won their previous race
9/16 – Had raced at Newmarket (Rowley Mile) before   (4,14)
9/16 – Yet to win a race over a mile (or further)   (7,12)

Anna Nerium 5 Pts EW @ 14\1 WHill

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On 30/04/2018 at 9:34 PM, richard-westwood said:

1000 guineas 

Wild illusion  ...385

Laurens. 382 

These two are a bit clear of the rest.....conditions should suit perfectly ...improving types ...8/1 And 10/1 looks very good value...roll the dice 

Wild illusion 10pts win  8/1 corals 

Laurens 10pts win 10/1 pp

2nd bummer but the ew double with Saxon consolation prize...almost landed 

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