May 7 - May 13

[liquidglass]

2 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Caroline Garcia to beat Julia Goerges at 1.80 with Paddy Power

Karolina Pliskova to beat Sloane Stephens at 1.80 with William Hill

Two big hitters against two big hitters, but I believe that Garcia and Pliskova have a bit more finesse on clay than their opponents. You may laugh at me saying that Pliskova has more finesse than someone else, but yeah, in comparison to Stephens, definitely. Meanwhile, Goerges is just shambolic all the time and hasn't looked great since that painful loss in Charleston.

I like the Garcia pick even though I realise that it will not be by any means straight-forward. I just cannot seem to digest the Pliskova pick. One of the negatives about both Pliskova's game is the languid and laid back application to their matches. karolina has improved a bit in that she has now begun to hustle and bite . Good responsive counter- aggression against an organized Azarenka onslaught.. She certainly needs a bit more to be on the same level as sloane. Sloane is a player that is unstoppable when she wants to be. Scores of her first two matches are indicative of that. If she beat Pliskova that bad on hard courts, then be sure a repeat is brewing

Edited May 8, 2018 by liquidglass

[pvaas]

thoughts on these plays guys?

Kohlscriebier -125

- Kohlschreiber recorded a comfortable 6-4/6-4 victory against an out-of-form Bautista Agut in Munich last week and there's no reason to expect a different result on Wednesday morning.

 

- Bautista Agut was pushed to the brink by Donaldson on Tuesday, an opponent with zero game on clay.

 

- Kohlschreiber sailed through his opener against Sugita 6-4/6-3 and he's playing with confidence, 5 wins on clay in the past 10 days, all coming in straight sets

 

- Bautista Agut prefers a quicker, lower bouncing ball coming onto his racket as he doesn't generate his own pace and while the altitude helps with the ball speed he hasn't beaten any elite clay courters at this event, destroyed by Djokovic & Nishikori in recent seasons.

 

- Kohlschreiber showed the stronger clay court prowess in his victory last week, yet the oddsmakers haven't adjusted the line. Take advantage of this mistake. Kohlschreiber Moneyline

Nadal Under 17.5 games +100

- Monfils showcased his lack of fitness & match practice during his opener and he now faces Nadal, the best clay court player ever

 

- Nadal has butchered Monfils on the clay multiple times (Under 17.5 Games 4-1 in their 5 meetings on the dirt - only meeting that went Over was Nadal not at his best).

 

- Monfils game is based on athleticism and defense but his movement and energy are non-existent so far in his return from injury

 

- Madrid has been one of Nadal's less successful clay court tournaments (only 5 titles!) but his defeats have come against Djokovic, Murray (x2) Verdasco & Federer. He's still capable of hammering inferior opponents

 

- Nadal is playing at a peak level on clay right now, expect a demolition of an unfit opponent. Under 17.5 Games

Schwartzman -250

Garcia -138

Wozniacki -163

Sharapova O21.5 games -110

This matchup has all the signs of creating a match full of intensity and drama

 

- Both players are elite clay courters on their day and they went the distance in Stuttgart last year (Mladenovic won 3-6/7-5/6-4).

 

- Their two previous meetings have both gone over this number but the clay is an important factor in this matchup

 

- Both players are tall with a sizable wingspan, meaning they can create angles and also retrieve more balls in defensive positions, making it harder for either player to dominate for long periods of a match.

 

- Both players have had two matches to warm to these conditions, expect both to be in full rhythm

 

- I don't trust either player to close out this match in straight sets, expect a deciding third set to cash the Over comfortably. Over 21.5 Games

Stephens +100

[yogg]

Kukushkin vs Anderson - ATP Madrid

this could be an awkward match for Anderson against a  very in form Kukushkin and I 'll be backing the Kazakh -1.5 sets @ 6.67 with Pinnacle with a saver +1.5 sets @ 2.00 with Paddy Power.

good luck all. 

Just a tie break away from a tasty winner - Kuku even had a BP @ 4-4 in the 2nd set 

Edited May 9, 2018 by yogg

[Sm0k3rZ]

Did anyone get to see KiKi's last match? I saw Wozniacki's match.. and she was horrible. Barty was leading 4-2 in the final set and just fell apart. It was the unforced errors by Barty that gifted the match to woz. Really feel KiKi might be worth backing here at odds of 2.29.

[gg-77]

Goffin to lose 1st set and win the match @7.45 great price to me. He did it 3 times at Monte Carlo and Haase played 1 match here might start strong and choke in the end which he usually does.

[liquidglass]

Kristina. Exactly the point i was making about both sisters having a languid and laid back approach to the game. She loses from a position of advantage. They really have to learn to be aggressive hustlers.

[yogg]

6 hours ago, gg-77 said:

Goffin to lose 1st set and win the match @7.45 great price to me. He did it 3 times at Monte Carlo and Haase played 1 match here might start strong and choke in the end which he usually does.

that 1st set could have gone either way, hard luck gg

[four-leaf]

Maria Sharapova to beat (-1.5 sets) Kristina Mladenovic at evens with bet365

Masha all the way here for me. She's way better then Kristina on clay and any other surface. Only reason they went the distance last season in Stuttgart was because it was Mashas first tournament back from suspension. Now this time I think Masha is gonna win this one and likely in straight sets.

[four-leaf]

Czech I need some more money. Want to try and win some more tonight on Sascha Zverev - Evgeny Donskoy. But how good is the russian gonna be in this matchup? Is it worth backing him on the handicap? Sascha has Rome points to defend after his victory there last season and he's just won Munich so he might taking it easy in Madrid. But he could also cruise in this particular matchup so what's your call?

[four-leaf]

Sascha Zverev/Evgeny Donskoy over 19.5 games at 1.90 with bet365

What the heck, pulling the trigger on this one. I think the russian can be solid enough to push this over 19 games.

[CzechPunter]

Could go either way mate.

[four-leaf]

15 minutes ago, CzechPunter said:

Could go either way mate.

No it can't go either way. It can only go one way in tennis. You have a strange way to see it. It's like I would say that Martin Cuevas could beat Rafa Nadal on clay since a match can go either way.

[liquidglass]

38 minutes ago, four-leaf said:

No it can't go either way. It can only go one way in tennis. You have a strange way to see it. It's like I would say that Martin Cuevas could beat Rafa Nadal on clay since a match can go either way.

What are you on about my man? Every single match no matter who is playing can go either way. You also picked a very bad example to try to butress your point. Cuevas and Nadal most times can go either way. They have always had tight matches together and Cuevas has even beaten Nadal once. So there you go.

[four-leaf]

19 minutes ago, liquidglass said:

What are you on about my man? Every single match no matter who is playing can go either way. You also picked a very bad example to try to butress your point. Cuevas and Nadal most times can go either way. They have always had tight matches together and Cuevas has even beaten Nadal once. So there you go.

What are you on about yourself my man? I was talking about little brother Martin Cuevas  and btw Sascha Zverev/Evgeny Donskoy just went over 19 games. So there you go.

Edited May 9, 2018 by four-leaf

[CzechPunter]

[liquidglass]

Just now, four-leaf said:

What are you on yourself my man? I was talking about little brother Martin Cuevas  and btw Sascha Zverev/Evgeny Donskoy just went over 19 games. So there you go.

Still does not validate your point any better regardless of whether you got Donskoy right or wrong. The point Czech made about the match going either way still remains valid even after the result.

[four-leaf]

1 minute ago, liquidglass said:

Still does not validate your point any better regardless of whether you got Donskoy right or wrong. The point Czech made about the match going either way still remains valid even after the result.

No the match could only go one way, either under 20 games or over 19. And it went over 19 and I was on the right side.

[four-leaf]

After making some money tonight I now decide to make some more tomorrow... More bets coming up!

[liquidglass]

Just now, four-leaf said:

No the match could only go one way, either under 20 games or over 19. And it went over 19 and I was on the right side.

hehehe! I really got it wrong and thought we had a tennis problem here, but I now see it very much looks like an english problem. You have just answered the question that has been posing us the problem in your words    No the match could only go one way, either under 20 games or over 19. meaning as was said it could go either way whether in games or in outright win..

[four-leaf]

Gonna try this fourfold tomorrow

Kevin Anderson to beat Philipp Kohlschrieber at evens with bet365

Kevin way better then Philipp and has always been although he's got fewer titles but reaching a grand slam final says it all about Kevin and he's fully capable on this Madrid surface.

John Isner to beat Pablo Cuevas at 1.80 with bet365

Big John going strong nowadays facing a Pablo with semifinal points to defend but I fear he'll come up short in this matchup because of the big serves coming his way tomorrow. He'll have to return basically out of his socks to win this match.

Simona Halep to beat Karolina Pliskova at 1.44 with bet365

Simona has a 6-1 head to head advantage in this matchup and she's world no.1 and will still be after Madrid and she's playing good enough for another Madrid final. The reason it's 6-1 to Simona is probably about returning and reading the Karolina serve so well. She just beat the other sister and will likely beat Karolina to.

Daria Kasatkina to beat Petra Kvitova at 2.50 with bet365

Saw Petra in the Prag final and that first set when she was up 4-1 she decided to throw it away. Even though she eventually won the match by grinding down the romanian she was a complete disaster with unforced errors thrown in from left and right. It will be costly when facing this young russian.

Fourfold paying x13.00 at bet365 

[yogg]

today I'm going to try three matches in the over 2.5 sets market for a treble paying 12.69 with Bet365.

Kohlschreiber vs Anderson

Sharapova vs Bertens

Isner vs Cuevas

good luck to all. 

[Sm0k3rZ]

Sorry @CzechPunter if this is not allowed but just too excited to not share this. If it is against the rules do delete.

Sharing this as alot of ppl posting four-folds picks n all. So it is possible to hit it big!

[CzechPunter]

Now that we've all seen it, it's gone . Congratulations mate! Not going for any picks today myself, all the odds look about right to me.

[CzechPunter]

Momoko Kobori (+6.5) to beat Ivana Jorovic at 1.75 with Marathonbet

Looks like a decent line to me, as Jorovic wasn't able to cover it against weaker players in the previous rounds. Kobori at home and with a nice upset over Jang, should be at least somewhat competitive.

[yogg]

I've just noticed that this is Kvitova's ninth game in ten days between Prague and Madrid so I'm going to take her on and back Kasatkina to win @ 2.52 with Pinnacle.

I believe Kasatkina is playing better at the moment so a decent opportunity here.

[yogg]

11 hours ago, yogg said:

today I'm going to try three matches in the over 2.5 sets market for a treble paying 12.69 with Bet365.

Kohlschreiber vs Anderson

Sharapova vs Bertens

Isner vs Cuevas

good luck to all. 

for the second day running Kevin Anderson has scuppered my bet on a tie break. Kohlschreiber even had set point in the tie break at 7-6 

I'm beginning to dislike Kevin Anderson.

[Brian Bertelli]

Hi people for tomorrow i will go with 

kevin anderson at 1,50 vs dusan lajovic

Kyle Edmund ar 1,44 vs Denis shapovalov 

John millman at 1,44 vs Oscar otte 

What do you think? 

 

[yogg]

Edmund vs Shapovalov - ATP Madrid

I really think the bookies have this wrong. yes edmund beat Djock (nowhere near his best) and Goffin (still hampered with eye injury) but shapovalov was sensational yesterday and I'm backing him @ 2.81 with Pinnacle.

and -1.5 sets @ 5.09 with Pinnacle.

good luck all 

[Sm0k3rZ]

Really feel all the dogs have a chance. Wouldn't touch any of them to be honest. Anderson couldn't serve out the second set and got broken. Then choked a mini break in tie break and was down set point. Philip choked hence handing him the set. So i would be careful.

Denis has been a surprise in this tournament given he doesn't have much exp on clay. But beating Milos is no small feat given he just beat an Dimi in the previous match. Kyle can easily go missing.

[Sm0k3rZ]

Really feel there is money to be made in both the WTA matches.

I backed Kaskatina in the previous match giving into the whole "Petra  has played 8 matches in the past 10 days". But from little bit of what i saw of the match, she blew away her opponent. Now Pliskova was much more impressive in her match against Halep. But she is infamous for going missing in the later stages of the tournament. I think it will boil down to the first set, if petra loses it, its hard to see her winning the next two. Backing KaPlis.

 

KiKi has made me alo't of money this tournament. Backed her agaisnt Woz and Shara and she won both of them. It feels she has her head screwed on straight this week. Garcia has been impressive for a couple of weeks now. She is keeping it simple and it has been paying dividends. As much as i want to back KiKi, i feel garcia can win easy points on her serve which might prove to decisive in the end. She is yet to lose a set this week. Backing Garcia.

Edited May 11, 2018 by Sm0k3rZ