Brazil Serie A Predictions 2018

[Mindfulness]

Vitoria V Chapecoense

Total Goals: Over 2.5 @ 2.11 Marathonbet

I do not really understand why over 2.5 is odds against here as we have the divisions two worst defences going head to head in this match. They're also the divisions 2nd and 7th strongest attacks respectively while both teams have a number of specific weaknesses that the other can exploit. The average goals per game of both teams combined is 3.0.

Over 2.5 at odds against seems to be the play considering the circumstances.

 

Edited June 5, 2018 by Mindfulness

[Mindfulness]

Cruzeiro V Vasco da Gama

Vasco da Gama +1.25 AH @ 1.847 Matchbook

It never rains but it pours for Vasco da Gama as head coach Ze Ricardo has quit after the home defeat to Botafogo. There's been somewhat of a toxic atmosphere at the club recently with issues on and off the field. Assistant manager Valdir Bigode will take charge of first team affairs for the trip to Cruzeiro.

Cruzeiro themselves are flying high at the minute, 2nd in the table with 3 league wins on the bounce. I guess most punters would think it completely insane to back Vasco here but the metrics and ELO ratings show that Cruzeiro are only marginally ahead of Vasco in some areas of performance and even behind in others.

Cruzeiro are hard to beat with a strong defence but their attack is not that great with only 6 goals scored from 9 games and to compound matters they have some absences in the forward lines for the match with Vasco.

In normal circumstances the asian line for Vasco da Gama would be too generous here. After factoring in the resignation of the manager and recent issues I still think it's too big a price when considering the attributes of Cruzeiro. I'm also of the opinion that X @ 4.45 may hold some added value here aswell.

[Felipe Madeira]

3 hours ago, Mindfulness said:

Vitoria V Chapecoense

Total Goals: Over 2.5 @ 2.11 Marathonbet

I do not really understand why over 2.5 is odds against here as we have the divisions two worst defences going head to head in this match. They're also the divisions 2nd and 7th strongest attacks respectively while both teams have a number of specific weaknesses that the other can exploit. The average goals per game of both teams combined is 3.0.

Over 2.5 at odds against seems to be the play considering the circumstances.

 

Very good pick and odd, I bet over 2.25 @1.86

[Felipe Madeira]

1 hour ago, Mindfulness said:

Cruzeiro V Vasco da Gama

Vasco da Gama +1.25 AH @ 1.847 Matchbook

It never rains but it pours for Vasco da Gama as head coach Ze Ricardo has quit after the home defeat to Botafogo. There's been somewhat of a toxic atmosphere at the club recently with issues on and off the field. Assistant manager Valdir Bigode will take charge of first team affairs for the trip to Cruzeiro.

Cruzeiro themselves are flying high at the minute, 2nd in the table with 3 league wins on the bounce. I guess most punters would think it completely insane to back Vasco here but the metrics and ELO ratings show that Cruzeiro are only marginally ahead of Vasco in some areas of performance and even behind in others.

Cruzeiro are hard to beat with a strong defence but their attack is not that great with only 6 goals scored from 9 games and to compound matters they have some absences in the forward lines for the match with Vasco.

In normal circumstances the asian line for Vasco da Gama would be too generous here. After factoring in the resignation of the manager and recent issues I still think it's too big a price when considering the attributes of Cruzeiro. I'm also of the opinion that X @ 4.45 may hold some added value here aswell.

I believe Cruzeiro will win this game by at least two goals. Vasco is much inferior and Cruzeiro will have return of important players, like Robinho.

[Mindfulness]

10 minutes ago, Felipe Madeira said:

I believe Cruzeiro will win this game by at least two goals. Vasco is much inferior and Cruzeiro will have return of important players, like Robinho.

Appreciate the feedback and I bow to your greater knowledge but I will stick with the selection as I have to find out whether or not the AH analysis I'm currently using is profitable over a long run of bets.

Edited June 5, 2018 by Mindfulness

[Felipe Madeira]

2 hours ago, Mindfulness said:

Appreciate the feedback and I bow to your greater knowledge but I will stick with the selection as I have to find out whether or not the AH analysis I'm currently using is profitable over a long run of bets.

Sure, you`re right. I will not bet because the -1 HA is too low, so I´ll cheer for you.

[Magic0024]

Football Facts and Streaks regarding International Serie A (Brazil)

Sao Paulo have scored in each of their last 7 matches in Serie A (Brazil).

You can find interesting 69 Football Betting Streaks for 06.06.2018 on this link ... http://eurofootballrumours.com/football-facts-and-streaks-06-06-2018-9873

[Magic0024]

Football Facts and Streaks regarding Serie A (Brazil)

Santos conceded at least one goal in each of their last 7 matches in Serie A (Brazil).
Santos have lost their last 4 away matches in Serie A (Brazil).
Grêmio have been undefeated in their last 6 matches in Serie A (Brazil).
Grêmio did not concede any goal in their last 5 matches in Serie A (Brazil).

You can find interesting 47 Football Betting Streaks for 07.06.2018 on this link ... http://eurofootballrumours.com/football-facts-and-streaks-07-06-2018-9876

[Felipe Madeira]

On 05/06/2018 at 10:47 AM, Mindfulness said:

Cruzeiro V Vasco da Gama

Vasco da Gama +1.25 AH @ 1.847 Matchbook

It never rains but it pours for Vasco da Gama as head coach Ze Ricardo has quit after the home defeat to Botafogo. There's been somewhat of a toxic atmosphere at the club recently with issues on and off the field. Assistant manager Valdir Bigode will take charge of first team affairs for the trip to Cruzeiro.

Cruzeiro themselves are flying high at the minute, 2nd in the table with 3 league wins on the bounce. I guess most punters would think it completely insane to back Vasco here but the metrics and ELO ratings show that Cruzeiro are only marginally ahead of Vasco in some areas of performance and even behind in others.

Cruzeiro are hard to beat with a strong defence but their attack is not that great with only 6 goals scored from 9 games and to compound matters they have some absences in the forward lines for the match with Vasco.

In normal circumstances the asian line for Vasco da Gama would be too generous here. After factoring in the resignation of the manager and recent issues I still think it's too big a price when considering the attributes of Cruzeiro. I'm also of the opinion that X @ 4.45 may hold some added value here aswell.

Congratulations brow.

[Mindfulness]

13 minutes ago, Felipe Madeira said:

Congratulations brow.

Appreciated, a good call from you with Sport Recife aswell. Slight loss for me on the midweek card but slowly learning about this league which is good. Hopefully we can find some value at the weekend.

[Bagzi]

Fluminense - Flamengo RJ

01:00CET

Great game expected here with over 30.000 tickets sold. Flamengo is in better shape, winning three games in a row without conceding (vs Corinthians 1-0, and Bahia 2-0 at home and beating Atletico MG away by 2-0). It will be a tough game because it is classic, but this time I am confident in Flamengo victory, will be difficult because Flamengo did not manage to beat Fluminense yet this year (lost one and one draw). Flamengo will be without midfielder Diego (missing through suspension - suspended by the third yellow card), all other players are fit and ready.

On the other side Fluminense coach Abel Braga will be without best player Pedro through injury, With the problems in attack, it is possible that the tricolor coach chooses to strenght the midfield and play with only one player in front. This would be João Carlos, natural Pedro substitute, who was in the field in the defeat in Curitiba.

 

Jun 08, 01:00Serie A

AH+0.5

Fluminense RJ

2.142.03

1.79 / 1.89

Flamengo RJ

 

Flamengo RJ -0.5 AH @1,89 sbobet 4/10

[Magic0024]

Football Facts and Streaks regarding Serie A (Brazil)

67% of America MG's matches had over 2.5 goals scored in Serie A (Brazil).
America MG have scored 31% of their goals in the first 15 minutes in Serie A (Brazil).
67% of Atletico MG's matches had over 2.5 goals scored in Serie A (Brazil).
Atletico MG have scored 2 goals or more in each of their last 3 away matches in Serie A (Brazil).
38% of Atletico MG's conceded goals occurred after the 75th minute in Serie A (Brazil).

You can find interesting 55 Football Betting Streaks for 08.06.2018 on this link ... http://eurofootballrumours.com/football-facts-and-streaks-08-06-2018-9933

[Mindfulness]

[Mindfulness]

@Felipe Madeira, @Bagzi

What do you guys think of Palmeiras @ 1.80 on Sunday?

Apparently both their first choice defensive mids are unavailable.

[Bagzi]

18 hours ago, Bagzi said:

Fluminense - Flamengo RJ

01:00CET

Great game expected here with over 30.000 tickets sold. Flamengo is in better shape, winning three games in a row without conceding (vs Corinthians 1-0, and Bahia 2-0 at home and beating Atletico MG away by 2-0). It will be a tough game because it is classic, but this time I am confident in Flamengo victory, will be difficult because Flamengo did not manage to beat Fluminense yet this year (lost one and one draw). Flamengo will be without midfielder Diego (missing through suspension - suspended by the third yellow card), all other players are fit and ready.

On the other side Fluminense coach Abel Braga will be without best player Pedro through injury, With the problems in attack, it is possible that the tricolor coach chooses to strenght the midfield and play with only one player in front. This would be João Carlos, natural Pedro substitute, who was in the field in the defeat in Curitiba.

 

Jun 08, 01:00Serie A

AH+0.5

Fluminense RJ

2.142.03

1.79 / 1.89

Flamengo RJ

 

Flamengo RJ -0.5 AH @1,89 sbobet 4/10

FT 0-2 bet won. 

 

[Felipe Madeira]

6 hours ago, Mindfulness said:

@Felipe Madeira, @Bagzi

What do you guys think of Palmeiras @ 1.80 on Sunday?

Apparently both their first choice defensive mids are unavailable.

I already bet Palmeiras -0,5 HA, despite the embezzlement, Palmeiras is a very strong team and has good players to replace.

[Felipe Madeira]

2 hours ago, Bagzi said:

 

I did this bet too. 

[Felipe Madeira]

Flamengo will have the embezzlement of one of their main players (Paquetá), but will also have Diego's return. As Flamengo will face one of the worst teams in the league, we have a good chance of success here.

Paraná have won their two home matches but will face one of the favorites in the first division title. In addition, the Maracanã will be crowded with the fans of Flamengo, the pressure will be very strong.

Flamengo -1,25 @2.00

[Magic0024]

Football Facts and Streaks regarding Serie A (Brazil)

Sao Paulo have scored 71% of their goals in the first half in Serie A (Brazil).
Sao Paulo were leading at halftime in 60% of their matches in Serie A (Brazil).

You can find interesting 86 Football Betting Streaks for 09.06.2018 on this link ... http://eurofootballrumours.com/football-facts-and-streaks-09-06-2018-9936

[Magic0024]

Football Facts and Streaks regarding Serie A (Brazil)

Grêmio have failed to score in their last 3 home matches in Serie A (Brazil).
40% of Grêmio's conceded goals occurred after the 75th minute in Serie A (Brazil).
67% of America MG's matches had over 2.5 goals scored in Serie A (Brazil).
America MG have scored 31% of their goals in the first 15 minutes in Serie A (Brazil).
Ceara have failed to win in their last 10 matches in Serie A (Brazil).
Ceara have failed to score in their last 4 matches in Serie A (Brazil).

You can find interesting 107 Football Betting Streaks for 10.06.2018 on this link ... http://eurofootballrumours.com/football-facts-and-streaks-10-06-2018-9939

[Bagzi]

Bahia - Botafogo RJ

21:00CET

Botafogo RJ goes to Salvador to meet hosts Bahia with problems. Three main players are out of the game, defenders Yago and Joel Carli as well as midfileder Jean are all out injured and staying in Rio. Joel Carli was injured in the goalless draw with Ceará and did not train past days, another defender Jean, had an ankle injury in one of the activities and is also out of the duel. Yago will be out too, after the head clash in the last match leaving the stadium with ambulance car.

Bahia have lost 2 times last year Serie A against their tonight oponnent, but i belive in some positive and better performance from the hosts. Hoping for some goals at both sides and expect open game.

Probable line ups:

Bahia-BA

Douglas Friedrich; 
Nino Paraíba, Tiago, Lucas Fonseca e Léo; 
Gregore, Elton, Régis e Zé Rafael; 
Élber e Vinícius.

Técnico: Cláudio Prates (interim manager)

Botafogo-RJ

Jéfferson;
Marcinho, Carli, Igor Rabello e Moisés; 
Lindoso; Luiz Fernando, Renatinho, Marcelo (Matheus Fernandes) e Léo Valencia; 
Kieza.

Técnico: Alberto Valentim

Over 2 AH goals @1,67 sbobet 3/10

[Magic0024]

Football Facts and Streaks regarding Serie B (Brazil)

Juventude have been undefeated in their last 6 matches in Serie B (Brazil).
Juventude have scored 55% of their goals after the 75th minute in Serie B (Brazil).
Coritiba have scored in each of their last 8 matches in Serie B (Brazil).
78% of Coritiba's matches had under 2.5 goals in Serie B (Brazil).
Coritiba have scored 27% of their goals in the first 15 minutes in Serie B (Brazil).

You can find interesting 53 Football Betting Streaks for 11.06.2018 on this link ... http://eurofootballrumours.com/football-facts-and-streaks-11-06-2018-9949

[Bagzi]

Flamengo - Parana

00:00CET

Flamengo manager Maurício Barbieri wants momentum at Maracana, with more than 40 thousand tickets sold. After beating Fluminense  by 2-1 and Bahia by 1-0, Paraná managed to cool in the competition but has not yet left the relegation zone. With nine points, the club needs another positivve result.

Flamengo is on fly and have incredible moment of the season. With four consecutive victories and a long-awaited unbeaten run, the team took the lead of the competition with 23 points out of 30 - seven wins, two draws and only one loss. Best team so far in the season. Parana has one importamn miss - midfileder Leandro Vilela is out through suspension (three yellow card in a row). Flamengo will attack from the start, but i still belive that Parana is capable of scoring at least one goal tonight. parana manager Rogério Micale is former goalkeeper, he knows the how to play counters. Awesome odds.

Both teams to score YES @2.90 bwin 2/10

[Bagzi]

14 hours ago, Bagzi said:

Bahia - Botafogo RJ

21:00CET

Botafogo RJ goes to Salvador to meet hosts Bahia with problems. Three main players are out of the game, defenders Yago and Joel Carli as well as midfileder Jean are all out injured and staying in Rio. Joel Carli was injured in the goalless draw with Ceará and did not train past days, another defender Jean, had an ankle injury in one of the activities and is also out of the duel. Yago will be out too, after the head clash in the last match leaving the stadium with ambulance car.

Bahia have lost 2 times last year Serie A against their tonight oponnent, but i belive in some positive and better performance from the hosts. Hoping for some goals at both sides and expect open game.

Probable line ups:

Bahia-BA

Douglas Friedrich; 
Nino Paraíba, Tiago, Lucas Fonseca e Léo; 
Gregore, Elton, Régis e Zé Rafael; 
Élber e Vinícius.

Técnico: Cláudio Prates (interim manager)

Botafogo-RJ

Jéfferson;
Marcinho, Carli, Igor Rabello e Moisés; 
Lindoso; Luiz Fernando, Renatinho, Marcelo (Matheus Fernandes) e Léo Valencia; 
Kieza.

Técnico: Alberto Valentim

Over 2 AH goals @1,67 sbobet 3/10

FT 3-3 bet won 

[Bagzi]

3 hours ago, Bagzi said:

Flamengo - Parana

00:00CET

Flamengo manager Maurício Barbieri wants momentum at Maracana, with more than 40 thousand tickets sold. After beating Fluminense  by 2-1 and Bahia by 1-0, Paraná managed to cool in the competition but has not yet left the relegation zone. With nine points, the club needs another positivve result.

Flamengo is on fly and have incredible moment of the season. With four consecutive victories and a long-awaited unbeaten run, the team took the lead of the competition with 23 points out of 30 - seven wins, two draws and only one loss. Best team so far in the season. Parana has one importamn miss - midfileder Leandro Vilela is out through suspension (three yellow card in a row). Flamengo will attack from the start, but i still belive that Parana is capable of scoring at least one goal tonight. parana manager Rogério Micale is former goalkeeper, he knows the how to play counters. Awesome odds.

Both teams to score YES @2.90 bwin 2/10

FT 2-0 bet lost.

[Sir Puntalot]

Good to see you back @Bagzi   

[Felipe Madeira]

Round 12:

Atletico Mineiro vs Ceara
Atletico Mineiro -1,25 HA
1 unit
Min odd 1.80
June 13

Atletico Mineiro is excited after a good victory against Fluminense. Now Atletico will face one of the worst teams in the league, Atletico must get a good victory before the stoppage for the World Cup.

Ceará despite having achieved a draw before the Palmeiras shouldn`t get a good result here. The team is weak and playing away from home against Atlético Mineiro and with the crowded stadium shouldn`t resist.

[Magic0024]

Football Facts and Streaks regarding Serie B (Brazil)

70% of Londrina's matches had under 2.5 goals in Serie B (Brazil).
Goias conceded at least one goal in each of their last 10 matches in Serie B (Brazil).
70% of Goias's matches had over 2.5 goals scored in Serie B (Brazil).
Goias have conceded the opening goal in 80% of their matches in Serie B (Brazil).

You can find interesting 59 Football Betting Streaks for 12.06.2018 on this link ... http://eurofootballrumours.com/football-facts-and-streaks-12-06-2018-9994

[Mindfulness]

Brazil Serie A returns this week. Not sure how useful ELO ratings will be for the opening matches after the long pause but I have posted them anyway.

@Felipe Madeira Transfers have been ongoing in Brazil during the world cup break. Do you see any team in the division markedly stronger or weaker through transfer activity during this period? Is there anything you think we should take note of?

 

 

[Magic0024]

Football Facts and Streaks regarding Serie A (Brazil)

83% of Grêmio's matches had under 2.5 goals in Serie A (Brazil).
40% of Grêmio's conceded goals occurred after the 75th minute in Serie A (Brazil).
75% of Atletico MG's matches had over 2.5 goals scored in Serie A (Brazil).
Atletico MG have scored in each of their last 5 away matches in Serie A (Brazil).
Atletico MG have scored 2 goals or more in each of their last 5 matches in Serie A (Brazil).
35% of Atletico MG's conceded goals occurred after the 75th minute in Serie A (Brazil).
75% of Corinthians's matches had under 2.5 goals in Serie A (Brazil).
44% of Corinthians's conceded goals occurred after the 75th minute in Serie A (Brazil).
Botafogo have scored 2 goals or more in each of their last 3 away matches in Serie A (Brazil).
Botafogo have scored 31% of their goals after the 75th minute in Serie A (Brazil).

You can find interesting 41 Football Betting Streaks for 19.07.2018 on this link ... http://eurofootballrumours.com/football-facts-and-streaks-19-07-2018-10490