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Non-League Predictions > April 23rd-April 25th


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After a great Saturday lets hope we can continue to end the season on a high. There are just two bets for now, but will probably be more later once I have had a look at the other fixtures.

Mickleover Sports v Stalybridge

Stalybridge lost 3-0 on Saturday and not surprisingly their recent run of fixtures and putting up a decent effort has caught up with them. Here is the start of the match report for the game against Coalville yesterday. Stalybrdige were playing their 7th game in 12 days and it showed as Coalville coasted to an easy win. The gruelling end of schedule had clearly sapped Celtic's legs as it was one-way traffic from the start. Mickleover have only played 4 games this month and will obviously be much fresher here and won comfortably 3-1 on Saturday. I think the best way to play this is to back them to win at ht and ft at 7/5 with Bet365. More handicap markets might appear but at the moment only Skybet, Unibet and 888bet have the -1 priced up (Marathon do as well but they are much shorter) but the -1 is worth taking as well if you can get on with them.

Frome v Banbury

Now I can't be certain that Frome will only have 10 players again and the fact they are at home might help them be able to at least field 11, but obviously they have to be opposed again. If you are conceding 7 against a team who has only won 3 games all season even for allowing that you had 10 men the whole game that isn't great form. From what I can tell only Marathon have the game priced up at the moment, but I have had my bet and this time the odds haven't changed so am putting up. Banbury have had a fairly busy schedule but they should see this as a chance to score a few goals really. Amazingly they are odds against at 57/50 and that is well worth backing if you can.

Mickleover ht/ft 3pts @ 7//5 with Bet365

Mickleover -1 2pts @ 13/8 with Skybet

Banbury 3pts 57/50 with Marathon 

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National League Ratings

Slightly different to my normal ratings as shot data more diificult to come by for this league. These ratings are based around Pythagorean Expectation using goals for and against....

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Bromley are of interest for Promotion at 40/1. They rank 4th on my ratings over the last 32 matches, 6th over 24, 5th over 16 and 6h over 8. They currently sit 9th 1 point outside the play offs with a game in hand, They can't reach 2nd or 3rd so they will have to start in the qualifying round and will more than likely be away for both matches before a potential final at Wembley. The 40/1 is more than fair taking everything into account

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God knows how Mickleover didn't at the very least land the ht/ft bet tonight as they did everything but score in the first half. I guess that is the danger at this time of year though in that teams will be going through the motions even when everything is in their favour.

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Right hopefully these 3 will help get the Mickleover money back.

Poole v Whitehawk

Not surprisingly the just stupid prices on the away team have gone, but 100/30 is still way too big. Granted Poole need to win to possibly get out of the relegation zone and they got a massive 3 points against fellow releagtion possibles Concord getting the winner in the 90th minute. I also get the feeling they are better than Hungerford and I am not as keen on Whitehawk as I was on Saturday as they played out a bit of a dull game with few chances, but even so the price is huge value yet again.

Brackley v Chorley

Interesting game this as Brackley can't move from 3rd place and with a home play-off semi-final certain and the FA Trophy Final ahead I just wonder if they might ease up in this match, which Chorley if they win will make themselves certain of a play-off place. They made hard work of beating now relegated Tamworth 4-3 although given Tamworth had to win to keep their hopes of staying in the division alive maybe it isn't a shock Tamworth upped their game. Marathon's 113/50 looks worth taking.

Havant & Waterlooville v East Thurrock (Wednesday)

East Thurrock played on Monday night and lost 3-0 to a Wealdstone side who have had a lot of football of late. That made it 4 loses on the spin and given the home side need 3 points to join Dartford at the top of the table it is hard to see anything but a home win. Now obviously that is short, but what I like here is the -2 which is 13/8 at Bet365. Now that might seem short, but Havant are 2 goals behind Dartford on goal difference at the moment. Given Dartford play bottom side Bognor on Saturday and Havant play a Concord team who might still need points to try and stay up, this looks the ideal game to get a few goals and get ahead of Dartford on goal difference going into the final game of the season.

Whitehawk 2pts @ 100/30 with Bet365

Chorley 2pts @ 113/50 with Marathon

Havant -2 2pts @ 13/8 with Bet365

Edited by Darran
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Stalybridge v Workington

Bookies have finally priced this game up and Workington are odds against so they have to be backed. They aren't in the greatest form, but they are better than Stalybridge and Mickleover should have won comfortably, but just couldn't score. With Staly's manager saying he is leaving their isn't even that much motivation for the players to perform anymore so at 11/8 with Betway they have to be backed.

Workington 3pts @ 11/8 with Betway

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Very tempted by Havant and Waterlooville on the spreads. They are 35-38 on the goal rush so need to score 4 goals to make a profit. Spreads are dangerous and obviously a 2 pound bet and no goals could result in a 76 pound loss. I will probably do a covering bet onHavant to score 0 and to score 1 at good prices. Agree that they will be going for 3 goals to go top and might just go higher in view of Dartford having the relatively easier game to play at the weekend. Surely the busy schedule will catch up with East Thurrock.

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So the league are forcing the stalybridge game to take place tonight. It has since come to light that Workington only had 13 players available last night and there is a strong chance it will be even less tonight. I urge people to try and get their bet voided if they can or cash out if that is available as well. 

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What a strange old evening. Havant win 6-1 as they go goal crazy in the last 20 minutes. Chorley won 2-1 to land that bet. Banbury should win from here as they are a goal up and Frome have had 2 red cards. Workington after all that also look set to win as they are 3-1 up. I couldn't void my bet and covered the draw and Stalybridge as I didn't want the bet anymore so made a tiny profit on the game in the end. Still the others tonight have all won so happy to get out with a good profit.

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Right I am onto it and hopefully will get it sorted so they pay out. I had asked for hem rock void it but it didn’t happen and less than an hour before kick off it was still left open so I had other cover bets to cover myself on the basis that bet was still on. I am fuming to see it has been voided so if my first plan of attack doesn’t work then I will take it further.

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  • Darran changed the title to Non-League Predictions > April 23rd-April 25th
9 hours ago, Darran said:

Right I am onto it and hopefully will get it sorted so they pay out. I had asked for hem rock void it but it didn’t happen and less than an hour before kick off it was still left open so I had other cover bets to cover myself on the basis that bet was still on. I am fuming to see it has been voided so if my first plan of attack doesn’t work then I will take it further.

How did you get on Darran/Seedy? I had it as part of a large accumulator with Betway and it was the last game to come in but propping up the return as it was the biggest odds selection amongst short-priced favourites.  I tried to get that part of the bet selection voided before kick off on the basis that the circumstances of the match (ie Workington struggling to get a team out etc..) had changed so much from the previous night. I was quite abruptly told they would not void the match as it fitted in with the 24-hour rule and I asked them for some grace because but no flexibility.

Then having checked the score from the pub later I pleasantly surprised that Workington had won! I was glad at the stroke of luck and when I checked this morning I saw that the match had been voided. What annoyed me at that point was what I saw as double standards of not voiding it when asked to but then voiding it when it did not suit them.

The catch came when I contact them today and they got off on a technicality! If the match had kicked off at 7:45 PM it would have counted but because it kicked off at 8:00 pm which is true it overlapped the timing by 15 minutes! 

They are within their rights but how annoying! Unlucky to have the match called off Tuesday and then Workington where more up against it on Wednesday, then lucky that Workington actually won and then lastly unlucky again about the kick off time letting Betway off the hook! 

 

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I am awaiting a response but guessed it was going to be the 8.00 thing but that is crap because it was a delayed kick off and it was meant to start at 7.45. Wouldn’t surprise me if they voided after the game finished. Like I say if plan a doesn’t work I will continue to push and happy to take it to ibas if necessary as I don’t think they have a leg to stand on myself.

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