_Ghost_ Posted April 15, 2018 Share Posted April 15, 2018 Very early days with a good few months of the start of the 2018/19 season... I've adapted my ratings based on pythagorean expectation to the NFL; Ratings Play Off Projection thegeneral55 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charon84 Posted July 24, 2018 Share Posted July 24, 2018 I mixed up a lot of 'stats' from other sides and my own thoughts and I came up with Patriots, Jags, Eagles and Saints as 1-2 teams from each conference. 6 weeks from now and the NFL starts again! Nice. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roy The Boy Posted August 12, 2018 Share Posted August 12, 2018 Ahhhhhhhh The NFL, if I take my absolute biased and loved Oakland Raiders out of the picture (which they will probably do for me by week 8) i'll try and be reasonable The Patriots always seem to be there or thereabout, this year I am going to throw the egg shaped ball way out there and say I have a sneaking for the Rams, No Logical explanation for this, just a feeling, That said have to agree with the Jags being in the equation, My heart loves it when the Non regulars are involved in the play offs I am going to throw four teams out there, 2 from each AFC & NFC. AFC: PATRIOTS & JAGS NFC: PACKERS & GIANTS so you can now pick your teams and leave them 4 teams out as I have universally jinxed them Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WiggoBets Posted August 31, 2018 Share Posted August 31, 2018 Very much looking forward to the new season now, the off season has flown by tbh I remember the super bowl as if it was last week. Hopefully we can get a few regular contributors to this thread again this year, it proved to be quite popular last year. So as we head into the new season I currently have three ante post bets. Firstly is the Pittsburgh Steelers. I back my boys every year and they always come up short despite promising plenty. No doubt one of the most talented offensive rosters in the league I expect them to definitely be in the playoff mix again and hopefully go on to win the Lombardi Trophy. The loss of Shazier is a real blow but i'm confident Big Ben has one more superbowl victory in him. The AFC is definitely the weaker conference of the two. The horrible Brady and Belicheck have dominated it for the past two decades and will more than likely give it another good go this year. Jacksonville will be dangerous with their incredible defense and I think the Texans are in for a much better season With Deshaun Watson at QB. There are many talented young QB's in the league and I think he is the best of the lot. My main tip from the NFC conference has to be the San Francisco 49ers. I am well and truly on the Jimmy G bandwagon. The way he ended the season last year was nothing short of spectacular and in a division where Seattle will no longer be top dogs the door is firmly open for them to reach the playoffs. It is a very tough conference and you can make a strong case for about 7 or 8 teams, but for me it is all about the niners. One of my favourite stats in any sport is that in 14 of the past 15 nfl seasons a team who finished bottom of their division went on to win the division the very next year. This is unpredictability is what makes the sport so great. Last year we had 2 teams meet the criteria, Rams and Jaguars. This year the potential 'zero to heroes' are the Jets, Browns, Colts, Broncos, Giants, Bears, Bucs and Cardinals. From that list I wold straight away eliminate the Browns and Jets. Cleveland have won 1 of their last 32 matches, they can only get better but they will not be winning their division & the jets simply wont be anywhere near the pats. I would also eliminate the bucs and the cardinals that list. Tampa are without Jameis Winston for the first 4 games and arguably have the toughest division matching up against the Saints, Falcons and Panthers. The cardinals have a new Quarterback in Bradford who always has fitness questions and they are up against two of the more exciting teams in that conference in the Rams and 49ers. So that leaves the Colts, Broncos, Bears and Giants. I would be very confident at least one of those teams ends the top of their division. For me I am going to take an almighty stab in the dark with the Chicago Bears. I don't think there is any value in betting on the divisional markets so I will be backing them to win it all at 100/1!! I was impressed with Mitch Trubisky when he started last year, I think he was under rated & he will come on leaps and bounds and become a strong established NFL QB. They have a new head coach who is very highly regarded from his time in Kansas and have two of the most talented offensive weapons in the league with Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen. I don't think they will have much to fear from Detroit, Minnesota are unlikely to have a season as successful as they did last year, whereas the Packers are a one man franchise and really don't have a great deal of talent apart from the great Aaron Rodgers. If the Bears can tighten up their defence they are definitely worth a punt at a price of 100/1. Bring on the new season! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WiggoBets Posted August 31, 2018 Share Posted August 31, 2018 Will also be posting my College football bets similarly to last season. Week 1: First scoring play of the match to be a Touchdown by the following teams: Ohio State v Oregon State USC v UNLV Penn St v Appalachian St Oregon v Bowling Green bet is only available with bet365 and is currently about 10/1 bookiebasher and Sir Puntalot 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bookiebasher Posted August 31, 2018 Share Posted August 31, 2018 2 hours ago, WiggoBets said: Will also be posting my College football bets similarly to last season. Week 1: First scoring play of the match to be a Touchdown by the following teams: Ohio State v Oregon State USC v UNLV Penn St v Appalachian St Oregon v Bowling Green bet is only available with bet365 and is currently about 10/1 Glad to see you again mate..I,ll be following as usual good luck for the season Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WiggoBets Posted September 1, 2018 Share Posted September 1, 2018 18 hours ago, bookiebasher said: Glad to see you again mate..I,ll be following as usual good luck for the season Good luck to you as well bud, big news today with the raiders trading Khalil Mack to the Bears! Very good addition to the Chicago Defense. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted September 6, 2018 Share Posted September 6, 2018 I'll be weighing in with some dubious TD scorer bets! I know next to nothing about the sport but that's never stopped me having a bash at tryscorers in League and Union. Let's see how my approach works over the season. 100 point bank, I'll update after each week's action. For the opening game between Atlanta and Philadelphia: 2 points Ertz at 13/8 with 365 1.5 points Agholor at 3.2 on BF (2/1 in places is ok) 1 point Ridley at 17/4 with SX (Spreadex) My main resources (used in this order) are a comparison between the spreads and fixed odds to find any "prices of interest", a look at the players' stats and a read of the team news/fantasy previews. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WiggoBets Posted September 8, 2018 Share Posted September 8, 2018 So my 4 college teams for this week are Alabama, Ohio State, Wisconsin & Notre dame. 7/1 for these teams to make a TD as the first scoring play of the game. harry_rag and bookiebasher 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bookiebasher Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 Ah mate..I came home just before the 5pm games started and luckily missed the Wisconsin bet and managed to put in Michigan instead as their game hadnt started yet..With your other 3 picks that came in i actually managed a nice win at 9/1...So thanks mate and sorry about your bet bloody, Wisconsin eh..They battered them afterwards hey....Good luck today in the NFL mate..I havent finalised any bets yet for today.. WiggoBets 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snoopdog Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 I'm going to continue with a system I developed last year based on CBS Power Rankings, and selections for the Westgate, Las Vegas (was Hilton) Handicapping Contest. I know things haven't yet settled down, but I'm itching to start. Week 1 pix are: (all one point at ~ 10/11) Balt -7.5 Pitt -3.5 Cincy +2 Minne -6.5 NO -10 Carol -2.5 Denver -3 Detroit -6.5 I'll be flipping between the golf and NFL tonight bookiebasher 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WiggoBets Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 1 hour ago, bookiebasher said: Ah mate..I came home just before the 5pm games started and luckily missed the Wisconsin bet and managed to put in Michigan instead as their game hadnt started yet..With your other 3 picks that came in i actually managed a nice win at 9/1...So thanks mate and sorry about your bet bloody, Wisconsin eh..They battered them afterwards hey....Good luck today in the NFL mate..I havent finalised any bets yet for today.. Brilliant stuff mate, Michigan and Washington state were on my shortlist as well and both would have won which is slightly annoying! Today is going to be interesting you can't really call anything for certain on week 1. I'd be tempted by some of the underdogs, Houston and San Francisco in particular. Also could be worth backing the 'unders' line in Cleveland as there is some atrocious weather predicted all day. Under 30.5 is currently 3/1. Same can be said for buffalo at baltimore, could be a nice double. Good luck with whatever your having. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bookiebasher Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 1 minute ago, WiggoBets said: Brilliant stuff mate, Michigan and Washington state were on my shortlist as well and both would have won which is slightly annoying! Today is going to be interesting you can't really call anything for certain on week 1. I'd be tempted by some of the underdogs, Houston and San Francisco in particular. Also could be worth backing the 'unders' line in Cleveland as there is some atrocious weather predicted all day. Under 30.5 is currently 3/1. Same can be said for buffalo at baltimore, could be a nice double. Good luck with whatever your having. Yes im just having a look now to be honest mate..Im leaning Bengals so far... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 0/3 and -4.5 points on the TD scorers so far. 2 in the 49ers/Vikings game. 2 points Murray at 5/2 with 888 and 1 point Cousins at 7/1 with Hills (and others). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bookiebasher Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 4 hours ago, bookiebasher said: Yes im just having a look now to be honest mate..Im leaning Bengals so far... Nope ive gone off the Bengals now...I do fancy my SAN DIEGO CHARGERS & the STEELERS so far though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charon84 Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 Bit late, but I have Vikings (-5.5), Ravens (-6.5), Broncos (-3.0), Rams (-3.0), Steelers (-5.5) and Packers (-7.5). Most worried about the Packers. Took them before the Mack trade. Steelers also some little concern because I thougth Bell would play. This my first year as NFL bettor hoping for glory. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WiggoBets Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 Rough start. Disappointing performances the Steelers and Saints. Steelers turning the ball over 6 times is unforgivable, similar story to last year. I suppose in the end a tie is not too bad given the awful conditions. Bucs definitely the standout performance of the day. Chiefs and Redskins looking strong in the late games, Mahomes has unreal arm strength. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WiggoBets Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 5 hours ago, bookiebasher said: Nope ive gone off the Bengals now...I do fancy my SAN DIEGO CHARGERS & the STEELERS so far though. Should have stuck with your first instinct! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snoopdog Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 I'm going to continue with a system I developed last year based on CBS Power Rankings, and selections for the Westgate, Las Vegas (was Hilton) Handicapping Contest. I know things haven't yet settled down, but I'm itching to start. Week 1 pix are: (all one point at ~ 10/11) Balt -7.5 WIN Pitt -3.5 LOSE Cincy +2 WIN Minne -6.5 WIN NO -10 LOSE Carol -2.5 WIN Denver -3 PUSH Detroit -6.5 TONIGHT I'll be flipping between the golf and NFL tonight Reasonable start. Pitt really blew a good lead. Didn't see the Tampa/NO result coming but I have previously noticed it can often be a worthwhile bet to back the biggest dog (Tampa +10) straight up / money line. I guess they were about 4/1. Yesterday's TV was runied - no golf (rain), no Nascar (rain), no US Open tennis (don't have Amazon Prime). I think we get the golf and Nascar today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 0/5 and -7.5 points for me so not exactly off to a flyer! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 Jets at Lions: 1.5 points Johnson 4/1 PP and 2 points Powell 11/4 365 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snoopdog Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 Thursday night is Balt @ Cincy by 1. Power rankings suggest Cincy by 2, so no bet. [However my gut feel is Balt.] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sir Puntalot Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 8 minutes ago, Snoopdog said: Thursday night is Balt @ Cincy by 1. Power rankings suggest Cincy by 2, so no bet. [However my gut feel is Balt.] How do you devise your power rankings for NFL @Snoopdog ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snoopdog Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 I use CBS Power Ranking. See: https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/powerrankings/ Then allow 0.5pts per position, eg team #20 is worh 5.5 pts over team #31 (31-20)/2 = 5.5 Then award 3 pts for home field advantage. I also like to look at the pix for the Hilton Handicapping Contest in Vegas (now Westage). These are shown by Sunday morning at: https://www.thespread.com/nfl-super-contest-picks-from-the-las-vegas-hilton People have to pay ~ $1500 to enter that contest, so there are some good people in. HTH thegeneral55 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WiggoBets Posted September 15, 2018 Share Posted September 15, 2018 Plenty of college teams fit the criteria for usual TD bet tonight. Clemson, Penn State, Michigan, Georgia, Tennessee, Mississippi State, Texas A & M. Take your pick... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WiggoBets Posted September 16, 2018 Share Posted September 16, 2018 Panthers +5.5 Browns +9.5 Texans -3.5 Chargers -7.5 Broncos -6.5 Look like solid bets tonight based on week 1 performances. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snoopdog Posted September 17, 2018 Share Posted September 17, 2018 You went 2-3 which is much better than my 0-4. Most of my "so called" guides had a bad week. The Top 5 pix in the Hilton Contest went 0-5! (after 4-1 in week 1). WiggoBets 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thegeneral55 Posted September 20, 2018 Share Posted September 20, 2018 I'm doing 4 td scorers every week. Week 1 was a 20/1 winner. Week 2 was a washout. Looking for picks outside of the premium players. Any ideas for week 3 ? WiggoBets 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thegeneral55 Posted September 21, 2018 Share Posted September 21, 2018 No prices yet but I'm liking diggs howard drake agholor hill hunt and conner as possibles. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snoopdog Posted September 23, 2018 Share Posted September 23, 2018 Here's my week 3 pix. Hoping for better than my useless week 2. Spreads are PP. Balt -6; KC -6; Miami -3; GB -2.5; Cincy +3; NE -7. I'll be flipping between the golf (Tiger vs Rory and Justin) and the NFL. Don't know about you guys, but until towards the playoffs, I tend to only watch NFL Red Zone rather than complete games. My attention span is short. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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