FootballBettingPredictor

[Timmy1515]

Selection

#140

Single

Chicago Fire vs Houston Dynamo

Major League Soccer / 20th May 2018 @ 21:00

Match winner • Chicago Fire

Odds: 2.25

Stake: 10

[Timmy1515]

Selection

#141

Single

Fluminense vs Atlético Paranaense

Série A / 20th May 2018 @ 23:00

Double chance • Atlético Paranaense or draw

Odds: 2.00

Stake: 10 

[Timmy1515]

On 19/05/2018 at 10:37 PM, FootballBettingPredictor said:

Single

#133

Tochigi SC vs Machida Zelvia

J-League Division 2 / 20th May 2018 @ 06:00

Double chance • Machida Zelvia or draw (0-0) WON +5.30PTS

Odds: 1.53

Stake: 10

 

On 19/05/2018 at 10:54 PM, FootballBettingPredictor said:

Single

#134

Yokohama FC vs Jef United Chiba

J-League Division 2 / 20th May 2018 @ 06:00

Double chance • Yokohama FC or draw (3-3) WON +3.80PTS

Odds: 1.38

Stake: 10 

 

On 20/05/2018 at 10:58 AM, FootballBettingPredictor said:

Selection

#135

Dalian Yifang FC vs Guizhou Hengfeng Zhicheng F.C

Super League / 20th May 2018 @ 12:35

Double chance • Guizhou Hengfeng Zhicheng F.C or draw (2-1) LOST -10.00PTS

Odds: 1.90

Stake: 10 

strange odds on this game both poor Bet 365 make the home side 1.90 I make them 2.75 to win this game 

 

On 20/05/2018 at 11:03 AM, FootballBettingPredictor said:

Selection

#136

Single

Shanghai East Asia vs Jiangsu Sainty

Super League / 20th May 2018 @ 13:00

Match winner • Shanghai East Asia (2-0) +8.30PTS

Odds: 1.83

Stake: 10

this price has now drifted out to a backable price. Live on sky for anyone interested in the China super league

 

On 20/05/2018 at 11:10 AM, FootballBettingPredictor said:

Selection

#137

Single

Sport Recife vs Corinthians

Série A / 20th May 2018 @ 20:00

Double chance • Corinthians or draw (1-1) +7.50PTS

Odds: 1.75

Stake: 10 

Home team opened up at 3.00 there was small value in that price. They are now 2.10  I'm happy to take them on at the price I make Sport Recife a slight fav here at 2.70.

 

On 20/05/2018 at 11:16 AM, FootballBettingPredictor said:

Selection

#138

Single

Helsingborgs IF vs Örgryte IS

Superettan / 20th May 2018 @ 16:30

Double chance • Örgryte IS or draw (2-0) LOST -10.00PTS

Odds: 1.85

Stake: 10

another strange price on the home side here this will be the last selection of the day 

 

On 20/05/2018 at 7:25 PM, FootballBettingPredictor said:

Selection

#139

Single

São Paulo vs Santos

Série A / 20th May 2018 @ 20:00

Match winner • São Paulo (1-0) WON +10.40PTS

Odds: 2.04

Stake: 10

today is not going well  but I'm hoping I've just came across something here 

 

On 20/05/2018 at 7:31 PM, FootballBettingPredictor said:

Selection

#140

Single

Chicago Fire vs Houston Dynamo

Major League Soccer / 20th May 2018 @ 21:00

Match winner • Chicago Fire (2-3) LOST -10.00PTS

Odds: 2.25

Stake: 10

 

On 20/05/2018 at 7:34 PM, FootballBettingPredictor said:

Selection

#141

Single

Fluminense vs Atlético Paranaense

Série A / 20th May 2018 @ 23:00

Double chance • Atlético Paranaense or draw (3-0) LOST -10.00PTS

Odds: 2.00

Stake: 10 

 

On 14/05/2018 at 7:48 AM, FootballBettingPredictor said:

Selections

#111

Single

Oita Trinita vs Yamaguchi FC

J-League Division 2 / 20th May 2018 @ 06:00

Match winner • Oita Trinita LOST (2-2) LOST -10.00PTS

Odds: 2.20

Stake: 10 

 

Selection

#112

Single

Albirex Niigata vs Montedio Yamagata

J-League Division 2 / 20th May 2018 @ 06:00

Match winner • Albirex Niigata (0-0) LOST -10.00PTS

Odds: 2.10

Stake: 10 

 

 

 

On 14/05/2018 at 11:35 AM, FootballBettingPredictor said:

Selection

#114

Single

Sagan Tosu vs F.C. Tokyo

J-League Division 1 / 20th May 2018 @ 07:00

Match winner • F.C. Tokyo (0-0) LOST -10.00PTS

Odds: 2.10

Stake: 10

 

 

On 14/05/2018 at 3:48 PM, FootballBettingPredictor said:

Selection

#116

Single

FC Seoul vs Jeonbuk Motors

K League Classic / 20th May 2018 @ 08:00

Match winner • Jeonbuk Motors (0-4) WON +12.50PTS

Odds: 2.25

Stake: 10 

 

On 16/05/2018 at 7:26 AM, FootballBettingPredictor said:

Selection

#126

Single

Internacional vs Chapecoense

Série A / 22nd May 2018 @ 00:00

Double chance • Chapecoense or draw (3-0) LOST -10.00PTS 

Odds: 2.10

Stake: 10 

Profit/Loss of the day -32.20PTS
Overall Profit/Loss +157.50PTS

Month Profit/Loss:-  -52.60pts

Overall Selections 139

Won 84

Lost 54

Strike rate :- 60.43%

AVG ODDS 1.92

R.O.I  +11.33%

what a month just can't get anything going been working hard this week to try and see how I can better this.

a revamp of odds is being looked at and strength of team rating revamp. We be back very soon 

[Timmy1515]

Selections

Single

#142

Östers IF vs GAIS

Superettan / 22nd May 2018 @ 18:00

Match winner • Östers IF

Odds: 2.22

Stake: 10 

 

Single

#143

Örebro SK vs Kalmar FF

Allsvenskan / 22nd May 2018 @ 18:00

Match winner • Örebro SK

Odds: 2.27

Stake: 10 

 

Single

#144

IFK Mariehamn vs FC Lahti

Veikkausliiga / 22nd May 2018 @ 17:00

Match winner • IFK Mariehamn

Odds: 2.87

Stake: 10 

 

Single

#145

TPS vs FC Honka

Veikkausliiga / 22nd May 2018 @ 16:30

Match winner • FC Honka

Odds: 2.70

Stake: 10 

hopefully get back on track 

[Timmy1515]

On 22/05/2018 at 4:02 PM, FootballBettingPredictor said:

Selections

Single

#142

Östers IF vs GAIS

Superettan / 22nd May 2018 @ 18:00

Match winner • Östers IF LOST -10.00PTS

Odds: 2.22

Stake: 10 

 

Single

#143

Örebro SK vs Kalmar FF

Allsvenskan / 22nd May 2018 @ 18:00

Match winner • Örebro SK WON +12.70PTS

Odds: 2.27

Stake: 10 

 

Single

#144

IFK Mariehamn vs FC Lahti

Veikkausliiga / 22nd May 2018 @ 17:00

Match winner • IFK Mariehamn LOST -10.00PTS

Odds: 2.87

Stake: 10 

 

Single

#145

TPS vs FC Honka

Veikkausliiga / 22nd May 2018 @ 16:30

Match winner • FC Honka LOST -10.00PTS

Odds: 2.70

Stake: 10 

hopefully get back on track 

Profit/Loss of the day -17.30PTS
Overall Profit/Loss +140.20PTS

Month Profit/Loss:-  -69.90pts

Overall Selections 143

Won 85

Lost 57

Strike rate :- 59.44%

AVG ODDS 1.92

R.O.I  +9.08%

ok over the last couple of days I've looked in depth at many things into compiling odds and match predicting. I have always believed that in order to beat the book you needed to understand how they make the odds and just do it better then them. 

I have a good idea how they compile the odds at bet 365 as my odds are fairly close to the odds they have when first compiled. Now do I wannabe a odds compiler or a punter ? a question that I needed to answer.

I watch a lot of football and love analyzing data in sports. I also like predicting outcome of events and enjoy putting my knowledge to the test. I understand why the bookmakers set percentages on sporting events in order for us punters to have a bet.

In a sporting event its impossible to put an exact percentage on an outcome happening. With a flick of a coin its 50-50 there can be no argument about that. But Man city at home to Swansea we can all have a percentage of what we think it could/should be but no one can have an exact percentage.

I've mostly been a value punter betting when I believe value is there. I read this is the only way to win long term which make sense right ?.  Even though I'm in profit with this over 400 selections overall (143 on this thread) could that just be luck ?

Back to the question odds compiler or punter ? I'm a punter but I do enjoy compiling odds so the question is do I just predict which teams will win or try to give a percentage to an outcome that is impossible to get 100% exact ?

answers I'm currently looking for  anyone else asked this question ?

[freddie01]

Back to the question odds compiler or punter ?

 

I guess the simple answer is you have to be a little of both. Good luck.

[LEE-GRAYS]

do what you were doing at start

[Timmy1515]

So after taking the rest of the month off on this thread I'm currently still just over 14pts down on the month with 6/7 winners last couple of days. But for this thread it stands as 

May :- -69.90pts 

April:- +213.10PTS

which = +143.20pts overall

which means somewhere my working out on this has gone wrong 

so from now on I'll use the site I use to calculate my picks and let them do the maths for me 

What I will do from now on as well is each month reset from bet 1 and at the end of each month add it to the overall at the end of each month.

I have a good idea who should win and teams that have a better chance of winning so selections now are the teams I feel have a good chance of winning and not always a value selection.

The reason for this I'm not a bookmaker I don't need to balance a book when I place a bet I'm a punter. So like I've said before its impossible to get a exact percentage to who will win a sporting event. So I will use my methods to predict outcomes of football matches as well as what my eyes are seeing.

lets see how it goes 

selections have been made and will post them now.

[Timmy1515]

Single

#1

IK Frej Täby vs Östers IF

Superettan / 2nd Jun 2018 @ 15:00

Match winner • Östers IF

Odds: 2.25

Stake: 10 

 

Single

#2

Degerfors IF vs IFK Värnamo

Superettan / 2nd Jun 2018 @ 17:00

Match winner • Degerfors IF

Odds: 1.86

Stake: 10 

 

Single

#3

Gefle IF vs Helsingborgs IF

Superettan / 5th Jun 2018 @ 18:00

Match winner • Helsingborgs IF

Odds: 1.76

Stake: 10 

 

Single

#4

Atlanta United vs Philadelphia Union

Major League Soccer / 3rd Jun 2018 @ 00:30

Match winner • Atlanta United

Odds: 1.56

Stake: 10 

 

Single

#5

Columbus Crew vs Toronto FC

Major League Soccer / 3rd Jun 2018 @ 00:30

Match winner • Columbus Crew

Odds: 1.97

Stake: 10 

 

Single

#6

Sporting Kansas City vs Minnesota United

Major League Soccer / 4th Jun 2018 @ 01:30

Match winner • Sporting Kansas City

Odds: 1.35

Stake: 10 

 

Single

#7

Corinthians vs América Mineiro

Série A / 31st May 2018 @ 22:00

Match winner • Corinthians

Odds: 1.54

Stake: 10 

 

Single

#8

TPS vs KuPS

Veikkausliiga / 1st Jun 2018 @ 16:30

Match winner • KuPS

Odds: 1.98

Stake: 10 

 

Single

#9

Oita Trinita vs Roasso Kumamoto

J-League Division 2 / 3rd Jun 2018 @ 06:00

Match winner • Oita Trinita

Odds: 1.78

Stake: 10 

 

Single

#10

Fagiano Okayama vs Montedio Yamagata

J-League Division 2 / 2nd Jun 2018 @ 11:00

Match winner • Fagiano Okayama

Odds: 2.10

Stake: 10 

 

Single

#11

Omiya Ardija vs Kamatamare Sanuki

J-League Division 2 / 2nd Jun 2018 @ 08:00

Match winner • Omiya Ardija

Odds: 1.51

Stake: 10 

 

Single

#12

FC Gifu vs Mito Hollyhock

J-League Division 2 / 2nd Jun 2018 @ 07:00

Match winner • FC Gifu

Odds: 2.48

Stake: 10 

 

Single

#13

Avispa Fukuoka vs Tokushima Vortis

J-League Division 2 / 2nd Jun 2018 @ 06:00

Match winner • Avispa Fukuoka

Odds: 2.69

Stake: 10 

so 13 selections I've just noticed I've got a game tonight in there . So that game will be added to May's total. I'm not sure how often I will update this if daily every 2-3 days.

 

 

[Timmy1515]

here is some data 

I can see what leagues I do well in and ones that need work. I'm doing better at 1x2 rather then double chance.

I'll be back over the weekend to update my process 

[Timmy1515]

15 hours ago, FootballBettingPredictor said:

Single

#7

Corinthians vs América Mineiro

Série A / 31st May 2018 @ 22:00

Match winner • Corinthians (1-0) WON +5.40PTS

Odds: 1.54

Stake: 10 

Profit/Loss of the day +5.40pts
Overall Profit/Loss +145.60PTS

Month Profit/Loss:-  -64.50pts

Overall Selections 144

Won 86

Lost 57

Strike rate :- 59.72%

AVG ODDS 1.92

R.O.I  +10.11%

so with that game out of the way leaves me with -64.50pts for the month on this thread can't get any worse in June can it ?  

[freddie01]

Onwards and Upwards.

[Timmy1515]

SELECTIONS

Single

#14

Montreal Impact vs Houston Dynamo

Major League Soccer / 3rd Jun 2018 @ 00:30

Match winner • Houston Dynamo

Odds: 2.80

Stake: 10 

 

Single

#15

New York City FC vs Orlando City

Major League Soccer / 3rd Jun 2018 @ 00:30

Match winner • New York City FC

Odds: 1.44

Stake: 10 

 

Single

#16

Portland Timbers vs LA Galaxy

Major League Soccer / 2nd Jun 2018 @ 22:00

Match winner • Portland Timbers

Odds: 1.75

Stake: 10 

MORE SELECTIONS ADDED 

[Timmy1515]

SELECTION

Single

Norrby IF vs IK Brage

Superettan / 2nd Jun 2018 @ 15:00

Match winner • IK Brage

Odds: 2.55

Stake: 10

[moggis]

@OP

Hi first of all thanks for a reasonably interesting thread.Better than most of the pointless nonsense you get online nowadays.

Im commenting because you seem to be in earnest and because I’m stuck in some Northern town with nothing better to do.

Honestly it’s like the beginning of Sean of the Dead up here.But then I assume the whole of the Northern 2/3 of the country is like that .

So first of all Im curious to know what exactly your aim is ?

Do you bet to make money ?

I suspect you don’t . Because you will never make money betting on the more obscure leagues .

Because obviously as soon as any bookie notices you making regular profits from such markets you will be banned or heavily restricted.

So you’re just seeing whether you can come up with a way to beat the bookie just for the hell of it ?

Then what ? 

Secondly the answer to your question about value is no,

Its true that in short term markets you need to be betting value but it’s not true in long term markets ,

Thats why I never waste time betting  on short term markets .Even if you find vslue you then get restricted.

Thirdly I note that many of your bets are on odds on shots . Do you really think it likely that that many odds  on shots are value ?

Possibly but I m skeptical .

But if you really want to test your system you should in fact get yourself to pick out tips before you consult your system.

I suspect that you’d be betting on many of those selections anyway .

 

 

Edited June 13, 2018 by moggis

[Data]

Excellent thread @FootballBettingPredictor and I'm sure you'll take the @moggis veiled criticisms above with a pinch of salt. Keep up the good work and show that those who post specific selections for peer review  and real-time accounting are worth a thousand of the posters who offer unqualified and unproven opinion.

[Timmy1515]

Hi all,

          I'm looking to maybe start this up again I've been away for a while I know but I feel like giving this one last go. It would take me a while to get things up and running again but if there is some interest in what I do then I'm all for starting again and sharing it on the forum.

This time I would like to go in full depth of what I do and share all but for now I will get back to working on this project and hopefully in the next few weeks I can share how I intend to go forward with it.

thanks for reading 

[Timmy1515]

Just to clean this thread up alittle the thread ended on this :-Overall Profit/Loss +120.00pts

that was to a 10pt stake on each selection.

it was a very small sample of only 148 selections

Ill end this thread here and start a new one for 2019 onwards