StevieDay1983

Premier League Predictions > Apr 7th & 8th

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It's the next round of Premier League fixtures coming up this weekend. The final 4-6 weeks of the English football calendar becomes a rocky time for us punters but let's try to stick together until the end. Check out the odds and ratings listed above then share with us what you think are the bets to slam down. I am particularly keen to hear about your thoughts on the Merseyside Derby and the Manchester Derby. :ok

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bournemouth is pissing me off lately. i expect them to lose some games but they have never say die attitude and it's causing me grief. i hate to get involved in their games as they tend to scrap a draw in dying moments of the match.

leicester will be too good for newcastle and should take these odds early before they drop further

man utd are really good shout to turn over man city. man city will be absolutely knackered after their midweek champions league game. i just feel they will put everything into it and lose their heads and focus for this match

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My recommendation for next round:

Chelsea, 1 with handicap -1

Arsenal 1

City 1

Bournemouth X

Brighton 1, and tempted to take even at -1 handicap

West Brom 1

Stoke 2

Watford X

Leicester 1

and Everton X, but this is a risky one

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Everton vs Liverpool

A range of derby matches are taking place across Europe this week and one of the biggest ones come in the form of the Merseyside Derby at Goodison Park in a 12:30pm kick-off this coming Saturday. 3rd placed Liverpool will look to keep the pressure on Manchester United in second place as they take on 9th placed Everton.

As I write this, Liverpool are currently dominating Manchester City in the Champions League. The big question is whether they can carry that momentum into the game this weekend? It's not much of a stop gap between now and a lunch-time kick-off on Saturday. Tonight was clearly a massive occasion for the players and fans. Will it be hard for Jurgen Klopp to pick his players up again for this game?

The stark fact here is that Everton have not defeated Liverpool since 17th October, 2010. That's 16 meetings against their rivals without a single win. Based on the difference in quality and form between the two sides it seems hard to find a valid reason to back the Toffees to win. Apart from the standard "form counts for nothing in derby matches" cliche.

When these two teams have previously met this season it's been a close encounter. They contested a 1-1 draw at Anfield on 10th December in the league before Liverpool won their FA Cup 3rd Round match at Anfield on 5th January. So maybe it won't be as done and dusted as we suspect.

I'm going to stick my head on the line and back Everton to make a game of this. I'm not sure they will win but the injury to Mo Salah could be a massive factor. Ideally, I'd have wanted more time to wait and see what Salah's injury is but I have too many previews to sort to hang about.

Personally, I would advise to hold fire and wait until team news is confirmed for this one. It could be hugely influential. Either way, I think backing Everton to lose by 1 goal at the very least and potentially taking a point is worth backing. Their home record isn't too bad this season with 9 wins from 16 home games. This is the sort of game that has been a stumbling block for Liverpool in the past. I just think playing such a big game so soon after such a massive midweek occasion will be too much for a team that plays with the intensity that Liverpool do.

Everton Double Chance @ 2.00 with Bet365

BTTS @ 1.75 with Betfair

@Mindfulness, @Pep004, @MaliMisko12, @betcatalog, @sajtion, @godofhorses, @Tiffy, @waynecoyne, @The Sexless Innkeeper, @Magic0024, @malabgd, @Duke_Tm, @dogmeister, @Arkadi Manucharov, @derbent, @fat, @allyhibs, @6avin24, @discipline, @the bastardian, @Bronxie, @Bett@KikoCy, @teddybear3011, @markus808, @allthethings, @Kenton Schweppes, @vasilli07, @Dylan Lynch, @neilovan, @JKos, @zemo91, @jamiedavies02, @kulikTS, @mrclubbie, @Judeksi, @Henind666, @Dave1X2, and @AndreBR, what do you all think of this prediction? Do you agree? If not, what are you going to bet?

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Manchester City vs Manchester United

It's the Manchester Derby this weekend when league leaders Manchester City have the chance to seal the Premier League title against their local rivals Manchester United in a 5:30pm kick-off at the Etihad Stadium this Saturday night. It's going to be a very tough one to call after the midweek action!

Pep Guardiola's side have been a joy to watch this season. Whether they do it this weekend or next weekend or whenever, they will be crowned Premier League champions barring some kind of miracle. Deservedly so. Victory would seal the title with the most games to spare by any Premier League team so far. In fact, it would be the earliest date a team has sealed the top flight trophy since Matt Busby's Manchester United won it on the same day back in 1956.

Jose Mourinho's team have faced criticism after their recent premature elimination from the Champions League. The Red Devils are 2nd in the Premier League but a staggering 16 points behind their opponents in this game. A top four finish seems likely with 5th placed Chelsea 12 points behind. This is all about pride. United will not want to see City crowned champions at their expense.

Recent head-to-head meetings show little separating the two clubs. Each team has two wins and there have also been two draws to their names in the past six league meetings. United have kept clean sheets on their last two visits to the Etihad Stadium suggesting Mourinho knows how to shut this City side down when he wants to.

City come into this game as a wounded lion. I don't expect them to suffer like they did at Anfield again. United simply don't have as much pace or creativity in their attack as Liverpool do. I can see a more progressive game that will be played out like a game of chess. That will suit both managers down to the ground. My gut instinct is backing a bore draw. However, a single goal either way could sneak it. It's a hard one to call. It might seem a cop out backing an Asian Handicap for United at such a short price but I honestly can't see them losing by more than one goal.

Total Goals Scored Under 2.5 @ 2.05 with Betfair

Manchester United AH +1 @ 1.52 with Unibet

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Hey boys and men (doubt there are any girls punting). We have an interesting set of matches this round.

Let's start

Everton - Liverpool

Liverpool coming of UCL win vs City and doubtful Salah. They need 3 points here and as pointed before Everton has a shitty record v Pool. Regardless if Salah plays or not Everton concede awful lot of goals and I cant see Lpool not scoring here at least twice. Everton on the other hand is mood swingy totally. Can't really tell which way they'll lean, more towards defense like last time or will they open up and try and win at home? Decisions decisions, could be a risky bet, but i'm a big fan of overs whenever it comes to LP so Over 3.5 @3.25 bet365 small stake it is for me.

Bournemouth - Crystal Palace

Can Palace do something here? they're really fighting for survival, just 2 points above relegation. Bournemouth sitting "confortably" at 10th, only 7 pts difference. It's safe to say that they're safe from relegation and is also safe to say that they play home match and it's a hard match to call. I'm leaning towards ahc +0 Palace @2.10 Bet365, but might skip it.

Brighton - Huddersfield

Skip, no idea.

Leicester - Newcastle

Crows really picked up form lately, netting 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss over last 5 games. They might show something here. Leicester are hot, cold, hot, cold, don't like them straight up. To me value lies in BTS @1.90 Bet365 if Newcastle shows up. So small bet on that it is.

Stoke - Spurs

Is stoke done? is it? I think so. 3 points for them here would be awesome and could potentially save them. But the remaining fixtures for them are Westham, Burnley, Liverpool, Palace and Swansea. I think they'll be more inclined to seek points elsewhere as Spurs are too strong and too highly motivated. They're fighting for top 3 and have brushed off Chelsea last time. I just don't see any real threat from Stoke, even if we look h2h, spurs defeated them last 4 matches with 4 goal difference. Tottenham -1,5 handicap @1.95 Bet365 is what i'll bang hard. This a moneymaker for me, i'll try small stakes something ridic like spurs -3,5 @6.25 for like 1 unit.

West Brom - Swansea

West Brom resting comfortably at last place, giving up. No way out, their fixtures left are ManU, Liverpool, Newcastle, Spurs and Palace. Even if they win points vs Castle and Palace and get one from the big 3 they're still out. So no real motivation here. They haven't won or drawn last 8 matches. Swans have a fighting chance and WBR are the perfect whippin boys. I'll bet Swansea straight up @3.39 Bet365 midstakes as I see real value here.

Manchester City - Manchester United

Hard match to call. You have 2 great coaches Guardiola and Mourinho, none of which I like personally but can respect. United is perfect for these types of matches and Mourinho knows how to make a derby unwatchable. I'll skip this match personally but if i had to bet i'd choose the Scum.

 

Good luck

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Brighton V Huddersfield

Put simply, this is a game Brighton have to win. I can see them going all out to get the points that would almost keep them safe. We haven't won in 3, but had a good performance against Leicester last week, and should have got something out of the game. Another good performance, in front of another sell out crowd, should be enough to see off the visitors.

My only concern would be the absence of Dale Stephens, as our win ratio without him is a lot worse than when he is playing.

Brighton to win@ 1.8

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Football Facts and Streaks regarding Premier League

There have been over 2.5 goals scored in Bournemouth's last 8 home games in Premier League.
Man Utd have won their last 4 games in Premier League.
Man City have won 90% of their last 29 games in Premier League.
West Brom have lost their last 8 games in Premier League.
Man City are undefeated in their last 27 home games in Premier League.

You can find interesting 122 Football Betting Streaks for 07.04.2018 on this link ... http://eurofootballrumours.com/football-facts-and-streaks-07-04-2018-9089

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MANCHESTER CITY- MANCHESTER UNITED 1 1.83 BET365 STAKE 3

Citizen if win today will become the new champions and i think they will win. There's a better way to win the championship defeating United at home? also citizen have to redeem themself after the awful match against Liverpoon on wednesday.

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On 02/04/2018 at 8:41 PM, sajtion said:

bournemouth is pissing me off lately. i expect them to lose some games but they have never say die attitude and it's causing me grief. i hate to get involved in their games as they tend to scrap a draw in dying moments of the match.

sixth time in recent times that bournemouth have scored last minute goal and again today.

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Football Facts and Streaks regarding Premier League

Arsenal have scored in 94% of their home matches in Premier League.
75% of Arsenal's points have been earned at home in Premier League.
Arsenal have scored 72% of their goals at home in Premier League.
33% of West Ham Utd's points have been earned away in Premier League.
West Ham Utd have scored in each of their last 8 away matches in Premier League.

You can find interesting 119 Football Betting Streaks for 08.04.2018 on this link ... http://eurofootballrumours.com/football-facts-and-streaks-08-04-2018-9104

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I think this round had a lot of surprises, would you agree? What I mean is about Away teams to win.

I did a quick check over the last 10 years for PL. Average percentage that away team to win is 28%. This round it was 50%. And it wasn't that very weak teams played at home against very good team, this wasn't the case. All games were evenly matched. Maybe with the exception of Liverpool, but Pool had a draw, anyway.

Another thing that was off the statistics, it that home teams are expected to win in 46% of the games. This round, we had not a single game where HT to win from all 8 games.

I think overall this round was very unluckily, so wonder what you think.

Btw, my predictions, system above had 8% per game profit increase, despite all these shenanigans..

@ Magic0024,

I did some checks for Arsenal, regarding points at home from totals and chance to score at home from total number of games. The link you shared shows for this season, so I added other seasons in the mix. Pls check it out - file attached.

If you guys are interested in any kind of statistics I can have a look.

Best of luck with the next 2 games!

PS: I strongly support Arsenal and Chelsea this time, to overturn the statistics table.

 

Arsenal.jpg

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Chelsea vs West Ham

My final Premier League preview of the weekend takes a look at the 4pm clash between 5th placed Chelsea and 14th placed West Ham in a game that really should be a given on paper but one where we all know the outcome is far from certain between these two sides.

Chelsea have once again failed to make any real defence of their title and it looks like they will miss out on Champions League football again next season unless one of the remaining English sides wins that trophy. Antonio Conte's position as Blues manager has been brought into question a few times this season. 5 losses from their last 7 league matches has seen them drop to 11 points off the top four. Form at Stamford Bridge is also questionable with their last 5 league games producing 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 defeats.

West Ham have endured a turbulent season. David Moyes replaced Slaven Bilic back in November. It appears that Moyes had defied the critics and turned the form of the Hammers around. However, discontent between the fans and board has filtered through to the players. Even so, their 3-0 win over Southampton last weekend suggested they'll have enough to stay up.

The bookies are firmly backing a Chelsea win but David Moyes does know how to get this West Ham team to grind out a result against the big guns. Look at some of their results under Moyes already this season. 1-0 win over Chelsea at home, 0-0 draw with Arsenal at home, and a 1-1 draw away to Tottenham. Even the 2-1 narrow loss away to Manchester City showed resilience. I'm not certain that West Ham will get something here but their recent siege mentality following the crowd trouble at home plus their encouraging performances against the big teams makes me think they are worth an Asian Handicap bet.

West Ham AH +1.5 @ 2.02 with BetVictor

Total Goals Scored Under 2.5 @ 2.55 with Betfair

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