April 2 - April 8

[CzechPunter]

[four-leaf]

Sofia Kenin to beat Ashleigh Barty at 2.75 with bet365

Gonna try a bet on Sofia here. She's on the rise and Ash is not on her way anywhere right now, she's just on status quo. Clay is not Ash best surface although she can play well on it but I think Sofia has what it takes to make the upset here.

Sofia to beat Ash at 3.00 with Paddypower

Edited April 1, 2018 by four-leaf
Odds

[CzechPunter]

Carol Zhao to beat Naomi Broady at 2.37 with Bet365

This is for tomorrow actually. I just don't know why this isn't 50/50 at the very least, Broady has been arguably less impressive than Zhao so far in this season and I just don't rate her all that much either. She can be pretty decent, but she doesn't have the potential for top 100 anymore imo, while Zhao does. Not a terribly great argument for a bet, but it's the odds that dictate the play here.

[CzechPunter]

Magda Linette to beat Claire Liu at 1.86 with Marathonbet

Linette needs to start winning somewhere and I don't see why it shouldn't be here against a player of Liu's caliber. Importantly, she has played in Charleston before, so she shouldn't be too unfamiliar with the conditions. Liu doesn't have the Collins/Anisimova level of talent imo.

Heather Watson to beat Taylor Townsend at 1.76 with Unibet

Same arguments as for the Boulter-Townsend match. Watson is capable of defending well, so she should have the upper hand every single time the rally gets long, which should be more often than not given the conditions. It's not even that surprising that Townsend has a 1-3 record in Charleston.

[liquidglass]

14 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Magda Linette to beat Claire Liu at 1.86 with Marathonbet

Linette needs to start winning somewhere and I don't see why it shouldn't be here against a player of Liu's caliber. Importantly, she has played in Charleston before, so she shouldn't be too unfamiliar with the conditions. Liu doesn't have the Collins/Anisimova level of talent imo.

Heather Watson to beat Taylor Townsend at 1.76 with Unibet

Same arguments as for the Boulter-Townsend match. Watson is capable of defending well, so she should have the upper hand every single time the rally gets long, which should be more often than not given the conditions. It's not even that surprising that Townsend has a 1-3 record in Charleston.

I hear what you say about Linette and I think you make a valid point there. Linette last three matches played very well against Collins losing in three tight sets. Sasnovich again three tight sets and seemed to have completely lost it against Risk as she was completely pulverized. Was Liu not the junior french open runner up last year? Hmmmm! I still think it is way too early to figure out whether she actually has the Collins/Anisimova potential as players can sometimes develop late. Liu is still only 17.  A quick look at her 2017 record on clay indicates that she is more than capable of the upset. Having played 2 games in the qualifiers, I really believe that she will play very well. May not win in the end but clearly an upset alert here!!!

[CzechPunter]

Well, fair play to Liu, I thought it was over after the first set. But, whatever you do, do not watch Watson-Townsend. That was the absolutely worst match I've seen this season. 12 double faults, pathetic errors from both, missed smashes, everything. Watson had 4-2* and a couple of break points in the second, 4-6 while missing everything. I will probably oppose Townsend in the next round.

Bernarda Pera to beat Dayana Yastremska at 1.53 with Bet365

Yastremska had serious problems against Sesil in the qualifying before losing against Zavatska. Got a LL and that sometimes makes wonders for players, but Pera just crushed Cepelova and has been playing a level above Dayana all year long.

[CzechPunter]

Elena Vesnina to beat Taylor Townsend at 1.53 with Marathonbet

Stranger things have happened, but come on.

[four-leaf]

Good match to watch Elena Vesnina - Taylor Townsend and I placed a bet at the right time it seems at the odds 3.00 when I placed 2-0 in sets to Elena. Placed the bet when Elena was 2-0 down in the first set, she immediately broke back and did'nt look back after that by taking the first set 6-4. Now a break up in second set and does seem to be up for a straight sets win.

Edited April 4, 2018 by four-leaf

[four-leaf]

Feels like it's just a matter of time before Elena breaks Taylor again and goes 5-2 up.

[four-leaf]

Elena never even got to 5-2 since she won 6-1 in second set.. Easy money!

[four-leaf]

Elena Vesnina started off as a 1.40 favourite with bet365 and was as high as 3.00 to win in straight sets 

[four-leaf]

Czech any more ideas for Charleston tonight?

[CzechPunter]

No.

[CzechPunter]

Caroline Garcia to beat Alize Cornet at 1.53 with Marathonbet

This has always been a good matchup for Garcia, who can do essentially everything better than Cornet. Not sure what to add here honestly.

[CzechPunter]

Btw, keep in mind that the Davis Cup format is now different for the lower tiers, just 2 days and best of 3 sets matches.

[four-leaf]

Naomi Osaka to beat Julia Goerges at 1.53 with bet365

Naomi in her current form wins this 8 out of 10 times. She played very well yesterday against Laura Siegemund and got the win in straight sets in the end. Laura challenged Naomi quite a lot but Naomi showed composure to win in straight sets. I believe she will win in straight sets again. It's 1-0 for Naomi in the head-to-head against Julia after she beat her in Cincinnati qualies 2016 6-4 6-4. The surface works well for Naomis serve and she will be hard to break for Julia. Big serves will come flying again from Naomi to get her out of trouble.

[four-leaf]

So wrong I was about Naomi Osaka... Anyway it's hard to find the winning bets when it comes to tennis.

Anna Blinkova to beat Ajla Tomljanovic at 2.00 with bet365

I just think Anna can get herself a mutch needed win here to boost her ranking a little bit. Ajla is not an unbeatable player. Nearly lost to Anna-Karolina Schmiedlova last round. I think it's time for this teenager to show her talent if she has any that is but her win over Rebecca Peterson was nice.

[ElPrincipito007]

Kr. Pliskova @3,5 (Marathon)

I was happy to back her yesterday at odds of 2,58 and I am happy with this odd also. She was 3 times the underdog here and won 3 times. She also won the only previous meeting between these two at the first tournament of the season. I understand why she isn't the favourite here but I rate her chances higher than this odd suggests.

[CzechPunter]

Kristyna Pliskova to beat Anastasija Sevastova at 3.50 with Bet365

Yep, I agree with @ElPrincipito007 here. Win or lose, this has to be backed on value terms given that Pliskova is playing the tournament of her life. I was worried about her against Vesnina, as it's never easy to "recover" from massive victories, but, now that she's past that hurdle, she should be able to play with freedom again. Sevastova is definitely the favourite, but not a 1.30 one.

[gg-77]

David Ferrer - Alexander Zverev

first set Home (ML) @ 2.27

2/10 PINNACLE

 Tennis / Davis Cup / Kick off: 06 Apr 2018, 12:30

 

First match after Usa hardcourts. Directly to the Spain claycourts its very difficult to adjust. King Ferrer will be freshier in the beginning. I expect him to take first set with highly motivated start.

[CzechPunter]

Watching Ferrer-Zverev, wow, what was Ferrer doing the entire week? I'm a big fan, but surely he shouldn't be playing in this form? A bit sad, really, hoping that he's going to stage a miracle comeback, but it really would be a miracle.

[gg-77]

Yeah Zverev is not playing so well but Ferrer is just so bad. I think Spain just gifted first match here.

[CzechPunter]

Alright, a rotten week then, Pliskova just ran out of steam. Plenty of shocking results in the Davis Cup as well. I'm probably going to wait till Monday before getting stuck in again, no point in pushing things in April.

[CzechPunter]

Ah, alright, I'm going to go for this one actually.

Fabio Fognini to beat Lucas Pouille at 1.79 with Marathonbet

1) Fognini is the better clay court player of the two. 2) I don't trust Pouille under pressure and the near-choke against Seppi only confirmed that assessment.

[four-leaf]

Mirza Basic to beat Norbert Gombos at 2.37 with bet365

Mirzas best surface is supposed to be hard and Norberts best clay and they play on clay in Slovakia so I'm going against those factors that speaks in favor of Norbert because I don't think Nobert has any form at all atm and hasn't had any the last few months either. So Mirza to win this for me and this could also be a live rubber depending on how it goes in the doubles match and the other singles rubber.

[four-leaf]

7 hours ago, four-leaf said:

Mirza Basic to beat Norbert Gombos at 2.37 with bet365

Mirzas best surface is supposed to be hard and Norberts best clay and they play on clay in Slovakia so I'm going against those factors that speaks in favor of Norbert because I don't think Nobert has any form at all atm and hasn't had any the last few months either. So Mirza to win this for me and this could also be a live rubber depending on how it goes in the doubles match and the other singles rubber.

Ofcourse Slovakia switched nomination of player and put Josef Kovalik on the court instead. Mirza won anyway and I'm convinced he would have beaten Norbert Gombos also.

[CzechPunter]

The odds for Fognini have dropped quite a bit, wouldn't want to back him now.

[CzechPunter]

Yep .