Valiant Thor Posted March 31, 2018 Share Posted March 31, 2018 Pretty self explanatory, above zero positive draw bias from the average @ that distance ,below zero the opposite IE Sharpe Defence is running from stall 4 which over past results has had 29% more winners than average, as Sharpe Defence is an unfancied horse the draw bias will most probably be irrelevant Masham Star looks the only fancied horse with a positive draw BillyHills 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant Thor Posted March 31, 2018 Author Share Posted March 31, 2018 Alpha Delphini & Kyllang rock both well fancied in the market and with positive draws Possible Dutch the pair to win or a rev forecast BillyHills 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant Thor Posted March 31, 2018 Author Share Posted March 31, 2018 Nothing much in this race , not a betting proposition (IMO) Maybe an ew on Book of Dreams due to its recent run and likes soft / heavy ground Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted March 31, 2018 Share Posted March 31, 2018 Nice stats Valiant. How much emphasis on draw would you put on an average race? Would you ever back a horse purely because of a good draw? I know one guy once who just used to bet the three inside stalls blind at Beverley over 5f! I have to say the draw comes way down the list of my priorities at most tracks, its so dependant on other variable like ground, how many runners, pace runners etc...... Take today with Musselburgh, the inside rail is normally where you want to be in sprints but if its soft it has much less of an advantage in my experience. Good luck mate, very interesting reading Valiant Thor 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant Thor Posted March 31, 2018 Author Share Posted March 31, 2018 Time to Study 4/1 & Mixboy 9/1 both fancied in the market and in plum draws 61% & 48% above average though only from a small sample size Dutch to win on the pair would be the bet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant Thor Posted March 31, 2018 Author Share Posted March 31, 2018 (edited) Hi BH How much emphasis on draw would you put on an average race?...... About 20% Would you ever back a horse purely because of a good draw?............. Not at all IMO , after crunching the numbers in thousands of races the draw has little effect on unfancied runners , a case of you cant make a silk purse from a cows ear. It is the last stat I look at after I have done my other stats and if my selected horse is in a draw with a high positive bias its defenately lump on time , if its not in a positive draw then other factors are looked at to see if it can overcome it . Edited March 31, 2018 by Valiant Thor BillyHills 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant Thor Posted March 31, 2018 Author Share Posted March 31, 2018 Tommy G @ 11/4 is the best fancied horse with a positive draw Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant Thor Posted March 31, 2018 Author Share Posted March 31, 2018 (edited) Queens Sargent the only horse well drawn and is fav @ 11/8 no ew play Edited March 31, 2018 by Valiant Thor BillyHills 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant Thor Posted March 31, 2018 Author Share Posted March 31, 2018 (edited) Well now real racings started how's it gone on the opening day 1.50 Muss 10 hours ago, Valiant Thor said: Masham Star looks the only fancied horse with a positive draw 7th 2.25 Muss 10 hours ago, Valiant Thor said: Alpha Delphini & Kyllang rock both well fancied in the market and with positive draws Possible Dutch the pair to win or a rev forecast Kyllang Rock won 10/3 & Alpha Delphini 2nd @ 9/4 Forecast £11.23 3.00 Muss 10 hours ago, Valiant Thor said: Nothing much in this race , not a betting proposition (IMO) Maybe an ew on Book of Dreams due to its recent run and likes soft / heavy ground Book of Dreams won 6/1 3.35 Muss 10 hours ago, Valiant Thor said: Time to Study 4/1 & Mixboy 9/1 both fancied in the market and in plum draws 61% & 48% above average though only from a small sample size Dutch to win on the pair would be the bet Time to Study 2nd Mixboy 9th 4.45 Muss 9 hours ago, Valiant Thor said: Tommy G @ 11/4 is the best fancied horse with a positive draw Tommy G 2nd @ 11/4 5.20 Muss 9 hours ago, Valiant Thor said: Queens Sargent the only horse well drawn and is fav @ 11/8 Queens sergent won @ 15/8 Edited March 31, 2018 by Valiant Thor Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted March 31, 2018 Share Posted March 31, 2018 Pretty successful day Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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