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BillyHills

Aintree Grand National Tips & Trends 2018

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21 minutes ago, waynecoyne said:

is there a doubt about him running Richard? you could always do nrnb

Tbh i was just waiting but the 33/1 6 places with paddyp nrnb is a fab bet .....I expected 20/1 ......so 10pts ew on milansbar 33/1 pp 6 places.......he needed 2 more to drop last time I looked ...not sure at moment .....

Edited by richard-westwood

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A  great race this not as much of a lotto these days as fences and   obstacles  have been made easier over the years but still very hard to win granted and a race loved by all with a lot of people have there  only  flutter of the year on it  in that respect a bit like the Melbourne cup for the Aussies . My Two e/w bets thus for are on VICENTE  & SHANTOU FLYER  both 33/1 wiith Skybet 1/5 1-6  but  can be got at 40's with some bookies. The former i really fancied last year it  fell at the first but the went on to win the Scottish version for the 2nd year  in a row up    a mere 4lb this time around if he stays on his feet will be right bang there imo unfrotunatley  STD  wont  get the leg up. as he is on his da's horse hoping a top jockey gets the ride not fussed about Brian Huges     last years piold being on top. The latter is horse i have liked and backed for a while now hasn't won for a lover a year but  bridesmaid a good few time   mainly at decent prices  was pulled up 4 out here last year but did get badly hampered earlier in the race  should give a good account off a slightly lighter weight. I may do another 1 or 2  nearer the time,                                                                                                             

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13 hours ago, BillyHills said:

Ok mate, just wanted to read the reasoning behind the selection. Its interesting to see what makes punters prefer one horse over another in such a wide open contest.

Anyway, it was  a good story, fitted the trends of the author you could say:clap

Cant wait now, just a few days left, i'm 14 miles from Aintree and its pissing down again this morning .

:hope

The way the weather looks over there Billy it could be that the trends guys should be looking at horses like Red Marauder?

Do you think it will be heavy come off time? If it does then that should help in thinning out the field.Just read an article on the Racing Post site about trends and one of the few things David Carr doesnt touch on is the ground which is strange in that it is always one of the first things I consider in any race.

He mentions that stamina is one of the most important issues in modern Nationals due to the nature of the classier horses and the faster pace.If it comes up heavy I think the class angle will be less important than weight and stamina.The problem is that for all 40 runners not a single trainer or jockey could say with confidence that their horse could stay 5 miles + which in terms of energy used will be the case.

What chance then the punter,even seasoned ones.At least I know my pick will handle heavy but can he stay 5 miles? lol

I think a good way to approach Saturday might be to bet on the number of finishers,if it comes up very soft or heavy a low number seems most likely.Also the classier horses are more likely to be pulled up if struggling than those on low weights from the smaller stables who get few shots at the prize so it may pay to have a few ew bets on those types at big odds.

Edited by Glentoby
spelling

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Good point about the going.

Trends never seem to incorporate the ground, I suppose its harder to see the ground issue at a glance and you would need to go through each horse and scrub off those that hasn't won in that days going description.

I guess the thing about Trends is that you can have a quick look at the last 10 results and easily pick out a few obvious things like Age, Weight etc....Going is more of a form study type of thing.  
I agree its just about the most important ingredient in finding a winner, well Mr Bull always said that didn't he!

:ok

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Just a couple of suggestions to possibly steal a bit of value.

Bristol De Mai I have recommended as a lay on his last 2 starts,described him as a slow coach.Might still be but enough reason to take a chance on him in the Bowl.

Had a wind op on 29th Jan,will relish the going and the race could end up in single figures.General 11/2 3 places.EW bet looks solid.

My Tent Or Yours,getting on a bit but absolutely bouncing at home.Would prefer better conditions but will handle soft or heavy well enough,again the Aintree hurdle may end up with a single figure field.5/1 general,3 places.Again ew looks solid.

Hard to see either being out of the 3 as things stand and they both look certain to line up.

My bet for them is to throw them into an ew Round Robin with Seeyouatmidnight at 16/1 general and an ew treble.Shop around and you can get extra places at the 16s with several firms for the GN.

Good luck whatever your bets,I will be very disappointed if the above does not generate a profit.

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UPDATED LIST:
removed non-runners, and double checked where runners had dropped points.
Found one error, Chase the Spud now scores as a qualifier.
Teach me to rush the calculations.

Will check again before saturday, but the 90+ are my shortlist.

MINELLA ROCCO (IRE)    67    
BLAKLION        83    
ANIBALE FLY (FR)    90    
THE LAST SAMURI (IRE)    81    
VALSEUR LIDO (FR)    49    
TOTAL RECALL (IRE)    74    
ALPHA DES OBEAUX (FR)    65    
GOLD PRESENT (IRE)    72    
PERFECT CANDIDATE (IRE)    74    
SHANTOU FLYER (IRE)    90    
TENOR NIVERNAIS (FR)    58    
CARLINGFORD LOUGH (IRE)    AGE    
VICENTE (FR)        92    
TIGER ROLL (IRE)    99    
REGAL ENCORE (IRE)    83    
VIEUX LION ROUGE (FR)    83    
CHASE THE SPUD        92
WARRIORS TALE        74    
SEEYOUATMIDNIGHT    74    
GAS LINE BOY (IRE)    AGE    
THE DUTCHMAN (IRE)    83    
PLEASANT COMPANY (IRE)    74    
UCELLO CONTI (FR)    76    
SAINT ARE (FR)        AGE
BEEVES (IRE)        81    
RAZ DE MAREE (FR)    AGE
I JUST KNOW (IRE)    81
VIRGILIO (FR)        74
BAIE DES ILES (FR)    AGE
MAGGIO (FR)        AGE
PENDRA (IRE)        81
BUYWISE (IRE)        65
CHILDRENS LIST (IRE)    65
HOUBLON DES OBEAUX (FR)    67
LORD WINDERMERE (IRE)    AGE
CAPTAIN REDBEARD (IRE)    72
BLESS THE WINGS (IRE)    AGE
MILANSBAR (IRE)        99
FINAL NUDGE (IRE)    81
DOUBLE ROSS (IRE)    AGE

I will be backing these 6:
ANIBALE FLY (FR)    90    
SHANTOU FLYER (IRE)    90    
VICENTE (FR)        92    
TIGER ROLL (IRE)    99    
CHASE THE SPUD        92
MILANSBAR (IRE)        99

Hopefully there will be a 'back & get your stake back as a free bet' offer come saturday morning.
If so, I will add another 4.

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there’s talk of it being as bad as 2001

with the new rules, only 2 would have finished that race :eek

could end up being an absolute bloodbath again.  

Baie Des Iles has been smashed in the last day or so, I’m tempted to jump on myself, but the way things are shaping I think I’ll be betting on the day when I’ve seen the weather and the track. 

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On ‎10‎/‎04‎/‎2018 at 3:55 PM, BillyHills said:

15/20 Aged under 11
We lose Beeves, Maggio, Houblon Des Obeaux, Bless The Wings, Milansbar, Double Ross, Road To Riches (7)

I don't see why Houblon des Obeaux, Milanspar or Road to Riches are ruled out because of age. 11year olds won this in 2012, 2013, 2014.

Am I missing something ?

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21 hours ago, BillyHills said:

Good point about the going.

Trends never seem to incorporate the ground, I suppose its harder to see the ground issue at a glance and you would need to go through each horse and scrub off those that hasn't won in that days going description.

I guess the thing about Trends is that you can have a quick look at the last 10 results and easily pick out a few obvious things like Age, Weight etc....Going is more of a form study type of thing.  
I agree its just about the most important ingredient in finding a winner, well Mr Bull always said that didn't he!

:ok

I don't have any statistical evidence to hand but isn't there an argument that bad ground plays in to the hands of older horses - 11 to 13 years old - at the expense of the younger ones as they are physically stronger and more able to cope with testing conditions, and maybe not as fast as the young horses whose speed is blunted in the ground ?

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Grand National 2018 – Odds with Bet365

 

1. Minella Rocco  Non Runner
Class act on his day but had a season to forget so far, same comments can be said of his trainer. Had a wind op recently and could do with the ground drying out.

2. Blaklion 11/1
Finished 4th last year and then won the Becher Chase around here, trained with this race in mind all season and needs to improve off a 9lb higher mark.

3. Anibale Fly 11/1
Leading fancy for JP McManus and trained by the shrewd Tony Martin. Ran well in the Gold Cup to be 3rd behind Native River, every chance if over those exertions.

4. The Last Samuri 16/1
Knows his way around here having been placed three times over these fences, best effort when second in 2016. Ran in the Cross Country Chase last time out and should go well.

5. Valseur Lido 50/1
Not much to recommend him this season, had four starts and well beaten in all of them. Certainly well handicapped if finding his old form and runs in the Gigginstown colours.

6. Total Recall 10/1
Won the Munster National at Limerick and the Ladbroke Trophy at Newbury so has had a hard season already. Fell in the Gold Cup last time out and is the main hope for Willie Mullins.

7. Alpha Des Obeaux 40/1
Has plenty of ability but not the most consistent of chasers, prone to breaking blood vessels too. Racheal Blackmore has her first ride in the race and the yard won this two years ago.

8. Gold Present Non Runner
Fell on his last trip round these fences, won first two starts this season but pulled up at the Festival last month. Only runner from the Nicky Henderson yard.

9. Perfect Candidate 66/1
Pulled Up last year when behind 4 out, an 11yo now and his chance may have gone. Well beaten at Cheltenham last time in first time blinkers.

10. Shantou Flyer 33/1
Has finished second on his last four starts including at the Festival behind Coo Star Sivola. Young James Bowen has his first ride in the race and could go well.

11. Tenor Nivernais 125/1
Got round last year in his own time finishing 17th, nothing much to recommend this season apart from his trainer is in great form.

12. Carlingford Lough 50/1
The second McManus runner and can go well on his day. Not looked in love with the game so far this season and the hope is the fences may bring him back to life.

13. Vicente Non Runner
Won the Scottish National for the last two years but came down at the first here last year. Not been in great form this season so far and not one for me.

14. Tiger Roll 10/1
Trained by Gordon Elliott to win at the Cheltenham Festival three years running, took the Cross Country race this time and is the mount of Davy Russell. Leading contender if taking to these fences.

15. Regal Encore 33/1
Finally got his act together when winning at Ascot last time out, yard having best ever season and this one could improve on his 8th from twelve months ago.

16. Vieux Lion Rouge 28/1
Has won twice over these fences over shorter trips and failed to get home on both attempts at the National finishing 6th and 7th. Looks sure to get round once again.

17. Chase The Spud 66/1
Won the Midland National at Uttoxeter but has been pulled up on his last two starts so not in the form of his life. Not well handicapped either.

18. Warriors Tale 50/1
Recently bought by Trevor Hemmings of Many Clouds fame, has finished second the last twice and is now on a career high mark. Stamina could be his downfall, his last two wins were over 20f.

19. Seeyouatmidnight 16/1
Another runner to change hands recently. Only had one run in the last 12 months and since a wind operation. Strong stayer and not too many miles on the clock for a veteran

20. Gas Line Boy 33/1
Decent 5th last year and then came back and won the Sefton Chase in December so certainly likes these fences. A 12yo now but runs off a career high mark so obviously in good heart.

21. The Dutchman 28/1
Won a decent handicap at Haydock and then broke a blood vessel last time. Stays well and is normally a sound jumper so should give a good account for the Tizzard team.

22. Pleasant Company 33/1
Fair to say he hasn’t really turned up this season as yet. Finished 9th last year for Ruby Walsh so has at least got some experience of the fences.

23. Ucello Conti 20/1
Lightly raced this year and made a point of getting here in one piece. Finished 6th two years ago and unseated at Becher’s in 2017. Represents the Gordon Elliott yard so respected.

24. Saint Are 66/1
Great record around here and was 3rd last year, but a 12yo now and not firing at all this season. Would need a major turn around in his form to figure.

25. Beeves Non Runner
Made the running in the Cross Country Chase last time out at Cheltenham. Similar tactics here I imagine and could give supporters a run for their money.

26. Raz De Maree 33/1
Won the Welsh National at Chepstow last time out and has been given plenty of time to recover. Robbie Power takes over in the saddle and will be staying on at the end.

27. I Just Know 25/1
Sue Smith does well with her staying chasers and won this race with Auroras Encore. This one won by 15 lengths at Catterick, which enabled him to shoot up the weights and get in here.

28. Virgilio 100/1
Goes well at Aintree but yet to try the National fences. Inconsistent this season and will need to improve for the trip to get involved you feel.

29. Baie Des Iles 16/1
The mount of Katy Walsh and the 7yo has come in for plenty of support lately. Was 5th to Native River in the Welsh National last year on his only other venture outside of Ireland.

30. Maggio 100/1
13yo outsider who won over the Mildmay course 2 years ago, nothing this season to suggest he’s about to win a National.

31. Pendra 80/1
Finished 13th in 2016 and only made it to the track twice since. Obviously difficult to catch right but not badly handicapped on his best form.

32. Buywise 50/1
Completed in his own time in 2016, 6lb lower now and showed he still had it in him when winning at Sandown in January. Yard has excellent record in the race.

33. Childrens List 66/1
Rich Ricci owned 8yo who has only had four starts over fences. Pulled up when last seen at Punchestown and this is a big ask for one so inexperienced.

34. Lord Windermere 50/1
Former Gold Cup winner who has not won since that day in 2014. He was 7th here last year, and also fell when last tried over these fences, well handicapped these days.

35. Captain Redbeard 28/1
Finished second in the National trial at Haydock which was his first run over 3m+. Stamina may be a concern but should jump round ok.

36. Houblon Des Obeaux 40/1
Finished 10th last year at 50/1, 5lb better off now but a similar result is probably the best he can hope for. Ran quite well last time out in blinkers for the first time and the yard are in great form.

37. Bless The Wings 50/1
Another Gordon Elliott runner, 13yo now and has been doing his stuff in Cross Country races. Has been over the National fences before when 9th in the Topham back in 2015.

38. Milansbar 33/1
The mount of Bryony Frost so will carry a lot of support, finished second last time out at Uttoxeter in the Midland National but looks up against it here.

39. Final Nudge 50/1
Things didn’t go right at the Festival and probably ran better than his finishing position might suggest. His 3rd in the Welsh National was a good effort but needs to cut out the mistakes.

40. Double Ross 100/1
Had a few goes over these fences without success and is not the force of old so is likely to find this just too far. Likely to be up with the leaders early on.

41. Road To Riches 66/1 Runs
Rated 167 in his prime but now 25lb below that mark, obvious claims if turning back the clock but’s very unlikely to be honest.

42. Thunder And Roses 66/1 Runs
Failed to complete last three starts, which is not the ideal preparation for the National. Also unseated here last season.

43. Delusionofgrandeur 80/1
Fairly consistent sort and got his head in front at Catterick in November, not disgraced since including when 5th over 4m1f at Musselburgh. Stiff task if he gets a run here.

44. Walk The Mill 100/1
Scraped in as third reserve, goes well in the ground and is a sound jumper. Stiff task but will have his supporters.

Shortlist

Shantou Flyer 33/1
The Last Samuri  16/1
Beeves NR

 

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Just a word on vicente-i saw an interview with trevor hemmings on atr yesterday talking about his 3 possible runners. This was interspersed with an interview with Nicholls. I normally take what he says with a pinch of salt but it sounded like vicente would not run if soft ground and would wait for the Scottish version which he has won for the last 2 years.

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I've gone for the following 10 using the excellent bet365 offer to help maximise my value.

Anibale fly : 2 points

Total recall: 1 and a half points

I just know: 1 point

Gas line boy: 1 point

Ucello conti: 1 point

Milansbar: 1 point

Regal encore: 1 point

Shantou flyer: 1 point

Saint are: half point

Maggio: half point 

 

I also have vintage clouds on board at 40/1 with nrnb insurance in the likely event he won't race. I'm also keeping an eye on tiger roll and may look to get him on somewhere if a good value free bet arises. 

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I can't remember where I got the stat but apparently every winner of the National on soft ground was aged 9, 10, or 11. 

Since 1999 there have only been 2 Nationals on soft / heavy - winners age   9, 11

                       1st                   2nd                    3rd                4th                   5th

2016                9                      8                      13                    8                      9

2001                11                    8                      8                      10        only 4 finished ( old fences)

Admittedly not much to go on but I thought I'd mention it.

None of the first 3 carried more than 10-11

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On another thread earlier this year I put up a little "system" for the National which has produced some very long priced winners - namely horses who had finished in the first 4 in one of the Irish, Scottish and Welsh Grand Nationals. This year there seem to be 6 qualifiers :

Seeyouatmidnight

Thunder and Roses

Raz De Maree

Houblon Des Obeaux

Bless the Wings

Final Nudge

I've backed all 6 at small stakes. If I had to narrow it to 3 it would be :

1. Seeyouatmidnight

2. Final Nudge

3. Houblon des Obeaux

 

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I've eliminated runners on trends based on age, weight, days since last run, not won over 3 miles, and not fallen too many times and I've got two left ..........

Milansbar at 33/1

Seeyouatmidnight at 14/1

 

 

 

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Final scores:
14 score 80+
5 score 90+

If we take into account Billys stat for winners of 
19/20 Ran within 2 months and adjust those scoring 80+ 

Be really surprised if the winner isn't from the 14 in bold, with high hopes it's 1 of the 5 scoring 90+

BLAKLION    83 (60day adj 92)
ANIBALE FLY (FR)    90

THE LAST SAMURI (IRE)    81
VALSEUR LIDO (FR)    49
TOTAL RECALL (IRE)    74
ALPHA DES OBEAUX (FR)    56
GOLD PRESENT (IRE)    63
PERFECT CANDIDATE (IRE)    74
SHANTOU FLYER (IRE)    90
TENOR NIVERNAIS (FR)    58
CARLINGFORD LOUGH (IRE)    47
TIGER ROLL (IRE)    99
REGAL ENCORE (IRE)    83 (60day adj 92)
VIEUX LION ROUGE (FR)    83 (60day adj 92)
CHASE THE SPUD    92

WARRIORS TALE    74
SEEYOUATMIDNIGHT    74
GAS LINE BOY (IRE)    74
THE DUTCHMAN (IRE)    83 (60day adj 92)
PLEASANT COMPANY (IRE)    74
UCELLO CONTI (FR)    76
SAINT ARE (FR)    61
RAZ DE MAREE (FR)    74
I JUST KNOW (IRE)    81
VIRGILIO (FR)    74
BAIE DES ILES (FR)    72
MAGGIO (FR)    63
PENDRA (IRE)    81
BUYWISE (IRE)    65
CHILDRENS LIST (IRE)    65
HOUBLON DES OBEAUX (FR)    67
LORD WINDERMERE (IRE)    54
CAPTAIN REDBEARD (IRE)    72
BLESS THE WINGS (IRE)    72
MILANSBAR (IRE)    99
FINAL NUDGE (IRE)    81

DOUBLE ROSS (IRE)    63
ROAD TO RICHES (IRE)    56
DELUSIONOFGRANDEUR (IRE)    83
THUNDER AND ROSES (IRE)    76

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So to clarify I am going to take on these 9 against the field:

ANIBALE FLY (FR)    90
SHANTOU FLYER (IRE)    90
TIGER ROLL (IRE)    99
CHASE THE SPUD    92

MILANSBAR (IRE)    99
BLAKLION    83 (60day adj 92)
REGAL ENCORE (IRE)    83 (60day adj 92)
VIEUX LION ROUGE (FR)    83 (60day adj 92)

THE DUTCHMAN (IRE)    83 (60day adj 92)

Happy to see what offers are about between now & the off.
I see bet365 have offered me half stakes back on bets before midday.
That might be enough unless there's anything better?

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5 hours ago, FleetFanatic said:

Happy to see what offers are about between now & the off.
I see bet365 have offered me half stakes back on bets before midday.
That might be enough unless there's anything better?

Interestingly... placed 6 bets, half stakes back. Used for remaining 3. Got half stakes back again.

So 9 bets placed for the price of 6 & a quarter of my stake has already been given back to me as available to withdraw cash.

That will do for me, that's the equivalent of the bet 1, get a bet free offer last year. Offer on until 11.59am.

national.png

Edited by FleetFanatic

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Aintree Grand National Trends (Last 27 Runnings)
- 26/27 - Ran no more than 55 days ago   (2,7,8,10,11,15,17,19,20,21,22,25,27,28,31,32,33,40)
· 26/27 - Officially rated 137 or higher    (Think it maybe a long time before we see a 137 in the National)
· 25/27 - Had won over at least 3m (chase) before   (18)
· 24/27 - Had won no more than 6 times over fences before    

· 23/27 - Aged 9 or older   (3,9,12,13,26)
· 22/27 - Returned a double-figure price   
· 21/27 - Ran no more than 34 days ago   (16,34)
· 21/27 - Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
· 21/27 - Carried 10-12 OR LESS   (1,4,5,6)
· 18/27 - Had won between 4-6 times over fences before   (30,37,38)
· 16/27 - Carried 10-8 OR LESS   (23)
· 16/27 - Finished in the top 4 last time out   (36)

After all the above is taken into account we are left with:

Maggio -  100\1 Bet365

Houblon Des Obeaux - 33\1 Bet365

Double Ross - 100\1 Bet365

They will all meet the criteria of:

· 22/27 - Returned a double-figure price
  21/27 - Came from outside the top 3 in the betting

Maggio - Smart chaser at best but hard to assess how much ability he retains these days after heavy defeats this season. Didn't take to these fences in the 2015 Topham.

Houblon Des Obeaux - Mud-lover who made winning reappearance at Sandown (3m) in November and several fair runs since. Held in tenth in this last year and will likely need it to become a real test to better that position.

Double Ross - Ran well when fourth in the Kim Muir last month. Took well to these fences in the 2014 Topham but not so in 2 tries since, pulled up in this in 2016. Hard to fancy.

*** Just a point that I read this morning. Since 2007 the average price of the winner has been 32\1 ranging from 7\1 to 100\1. 7 of the last 11 winners were 25\1 or bigger. 17 of the last 44 placed horses were also 25\1 or bigger. 

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2 hours ago, BillyHills said:

Regal Encore and Walk In The Mill are both Non Runners 

:ok

Gutted .......narrowed to 4 horses now

Milansbar

Houblon des obeaux

Viue lion rouge 

Chase the spud 

Love the last named ....40/1 and mud lover ...perfect .......milansbar top on my ratings so 33/1 fab ........and houblon des obeaux has collateral form lines with Chase spud so 33/1 fab .....roll the dice 

 

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