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BillyHills

Aintree Grand National Tips & Trends 2018

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April 14th, Aintree 5.15pm

4m2½f (4m2f74y) Randox Health Grand National Handicap Chase (Grade 3) (Class 1) (7yo+)

 

Previous Winners

Screen Shot 2018-03-26 at 22.28.26.png

 

Key Trends:

20/20 Had at lest 3 starts this season
19/20 Ran within 2 months
19/20 Won at 3m or more
17/20 Irish or French Bred
7/10 Rated 148 or above
16/20 Carried 11st or less
15/20 Aged under 11
13/20 Placed last time out

 

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Grand National is only 3 weeks away so I thought I'd get this thread up nice and early and hopefully get plenty of differing views about the greatest race on earth!

Many think its a completely different race these days due to the fences being made a little easier. This has led to the 'better' horses taking part and pushing the ratings higher and higher.

Last year you needed to have a horse rated 143 to get a run, 10 years ago it was 137, 15 years ago it was 132.

Whether the changes have made the race a better contest or not is open to debate, just because the horses are rated higher it doesn't mean you get a better spectacle. I quite liked seeing a 130 rated horse having a go at a big pay day, maybe we should have a 'Silver National'........ Anyway the race doesn't get any easier to predict, look at the SP's for last 10 years!

Will be back with some early thoughts:ok

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My bet this year will be a sentimental one.

Three years ago Maggio failed to make the cut as he did 2 years ago

and then won a consolation race on supposedly unsuitable soft ground at 50/1 on national day.

He has been aimed purely at this race for the last 3 years for owners who triumphed with auroras encore.

Last year he was injured in the run up to the race. He is now 13 so age against him but he doesn't run too often so i'm hoping that counts in his favour. Currently 100/1.

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A chap elsewhere came up with this method last year which I followed:
I haven't had chance to do anything with it yet this year.

Each trend met, you score that number of points out of 11, so the maximum score is 99.
If the trend is not met on the 10/11, you score 1
If the trend is not met on the 9/11, you score 2


The theory was that the trends & scoring are based only on the few years since the major changes to the race were made & was based on winners & close finishers (within 10 lengths of the winner) in those years. Taking only those scoring 90 points or more, it got 6 of the first 7 home at the first attempt last year!

Aged between 8 and 11 years old: 11/11 
Best RPR during last 12 months of at least 5 lbs higher than current Official Rating: 10/11 
Best RPR during past 12 months within last 3 starts over fences: 10/11 
Weight Carried between 10.03 and 11.03: 10/11 
Won a chase over at least 3 miles and 1/2 furlong: 10/11 
Placed in a chase over at least 3 miles and 2 furlongs: 10/11 
Previously won no more than 5 times over fences: 10/11 
Previously won a chase worth £/€ 31 k, or placed in a chase worth at least £/€ 51 k: 10/11 
Last ran between 22 and 49 days prior to this race: 9/11 
Previously recorded no more than 1 fall/unseated rider non completion over fences: 9/11

Last year's ratings:

The Last Samuri: 90 pts 
More Of That: 72 pts
Shantou Flyer: 52 pts
Perfect Candidate: 74 pts
Saphir Du Rheu: 74 pts
Roi De Francs: 65 pts
Wounded Warrior: 81 pts
Wonderful Charm: 72 pts
Tenor Nivernais: 83 pts
BLAKLION: 99 pts 
Drop Out Joe: 83 pts
Le Mercurey: 61 pts
The Young Master: 81 pts
CAUSE OF CAUSES: 99 pts 
Regal Encore: 74 pts
VIEUX LION ROUGE: 99 pts 
Definitly Red: 92 pts 
Ucello Conti: 74 pts
Double Shuffle: 79 pts
Houblon Des Obeaux: 67 pts
Pleasant Company: 81 pts
One For Arthur: 92 pts 
Ballynagour: 58 pts
O'Faolains Boy: 74 pts
Highland Lodge: 92 pts 
Bishops Road: 85 pts
Lord Windermere: 90 pts 
Saint Are: 83 pts
Vincente: 83 pts
JUST A PAR: 99 pts 
Measureofmydreams: 90 pts 
Raz De Maree: 79 pts
Stellar Notion: 56 pts
Rogue Angel: 76 pts
Cocktails At Dawn: 56 pts
Thunder And Roses: 92 pts 
Gas Line Boy: 92 pts 
Goodtoknow: 79 pts
La Vaticane: 72 pts
Doctor Harper: 72 pts

And the years that were used for the data were back scored:


2016 1. RULE THE WORLD: 90 pts
2. The Last Samuri: 99 pts
2015 
1. MANY CLOUDS: 90 pts
2. Saint Are: 76 pts
3. Monbeg Dude: 99 pts
2014 
1. PINEAU DE RE: 90 pts
2. Balthazar King: 90 pts
3. Double Seven: 90 pts
2013 
1. AURORAS ENCORE: 83 pts
2. Cappa Bleu: 92 pts
3. Teaforthree: 99 pts

If anybody wants to crack on before I find the time feel free as things are quite hectic at the moment.

Edited by FleetFanatic

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14 hours ago, FleetFanatic said:

A chap elsewhere came up with this method last year which I followed:
I haven't had chance to do anything with it yet this year.

Each trend met, you score that number of points out of 11, so the maximum score is 99.

The theory was that the trends & scoring are based only on the few years since the major changes to the race were made & was based on winners & close finishers (within 10 lengths of the winner) in those years. Taking only those scoring 90 points or more, it got 6 of the first 7 home at the first attempt last year!

Aged between 8 and 11 years old: 11/11 
Best RPR during last 12 months of at least 5 lbs higher than current Official Rating: 10/11 
Best RPR during past 12 months within last 3 starts over fences: 10/11 
Weight Carried between 10.03 and 11.03: 10/11 
Won a chase over at least 3 miles and 1/2 furlong: 10/11 
Placed in a chase over at least 3 miles and 2 furlongs: 10/11 
Previously won no more than 5 times over fences: 10/11 
Previously won a chase worth £/€ 31 k, or placed in a chase worth at least £/€ 51 k: 10/11 
Last ran between 22 and 49 days prior to this race: 9/11 
Previously recorded no more than 1 fall/unseated rider non completion over fences: 9/11

Last year's ratings:

The Last Samuri: 90 pts 
More Of That: 72 pts
Shantou Flyer: 52 pts
Perfect Candidate: 74 pts
Saphir Du Rheu: 74 pts
Roi De Francs: 65 pts
Wounded Warrior: 81 pts
Wonderful Charm: 72 pts
Tenor Nivernais: 83 pts
BLAKLION: 99 pts 
Drop Out Joe: 83 pts
Le Mercurey: 61 pts
The Young Master: 81 pts
CAUSE OF CAUSES: 99 pts 
Regal Encore: 74 pts
VIEUX LION ROUGE: 99 pts 
Definitly Red: 92 pts 
Ucello Conti: 74 pts
Double Shuffle: 79 pts
Houblon Des Obeaux: 67 pts
Pleasant Company: 81 pts
One For Arthur: 92 pts 
Ballynagour: 58 pts
O'Faolains Boy: 74 pts
Highland Lodge: 92 pts 
Bishops Road: 85 pts
Lord Windermere: 90 pts 
Saint Are: 83 pts
Vincente: 83 pts
JUST A PAR: 99 pts 
Measureofmydreams: 90 pts 
Raz De Maree: 79 pts
Stellar Notion: 56 pts
Rogue Angel: 76 pts
Cocktails At Dawn: 56 pts
Thunder And Roses: 92 pts 
Gas Line Boy: 92 pts 
Goodtoknow: 79 pts
La Vaticane: 72 pts
Doctor Harper: 72 pts

And the years that were used for the data were back scored:


2016 1. RULE THE WORLD: 90 pts
2. The Last Samuri: 99 pts
2015 
1. MANY CLOUDS: 90 pts
2. Saint Are: 76 pts
3. Monbeg Dude: 99 pts
2014 
1. PINEAU DE RE: 90 pts
2. Balthazar King: 90 pts
3. Double Seven: 90 pts
2013 
1. AURORAS ENCORE: 83 pts
2. Cappa Bleu: 92 pts
3. Teaforthree: 99 pts

If anybody wants to crack on before I find the time feel free as things are quite hectic at the moment.

Amazing stats........very interesting.....like you said a lot of work but could be a genuine shot at tricast on the day as a reward ......

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I missed out a couple of minor scoring points... so have edited the original post slightly.

Each trend met, you score that number of points out of 11, so the maximum score is 99.
If the trend is not met on the 10/11, you score 1
If the trend is not met on the 9/11, you score 2


That is how One for Arthur, for example scored 92. Met all the trends except one.

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Trends are as bad as stats,easy to highlight the winner meeting the trends and stats whilst forgetting how many of the other 40 runners met them but lost????

Not too many years ago I took on the stats/trend guys.............their statements of fact included.

French breds do not win the National

Horses beaten in the Dante do not win the Derby

AP has not won the national

Progeny of Montjeu cannot win at the Chelt Fest

These are but a few where it was proven that a statistic is only as factual as the last occurence and as profitable as looking at trends to pick one individual horse when more than one fit the profile unless of course putting one up BEFORE the actual contest every time?

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21 hours ago, Glentoby said:

Trends are as bad as stats,easy to highlight the winner meeting the trends and stats whilst forgetting how many of the other 40 runners met them but lost????

Not too many years ago I took on the stats/trend guys.............their statements of fact included.

French breds do not win the National

Horses beaten in the Dante do not win the Derby

AP has not won the national

Progeny of Montjeu cannot win at the Chelt Fest

These are but a few where it was proven that a statistic is only as factual as the last occurence and as profitable as looking at trends to pick one individual horse when more than one fit the profile unless of course putting one up BEFORE the actual contest every time?

Maybe it was a fluke, but look at the results of the winners & close finishers.
Bar 1 winner & 2 places (Saint Are twice), they all score 90+.

Last year was the first time this was used. It got 6 of the first 7 in the race. Did you?
I've just screenshot my bet history from then, stakes blanked out obviously.

Bet365 also did an offer that morning, meaning I got 10 bets on for the price of 5. I hope they do that again this year. :D

proof.png

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On 01/04/2018 at 11:11 PM, FleetFanatic said:

Maybe it was a fluke, but look at the results of the winners & close finishers.
Bar 1 winner & 2 places (Saint Are twice), they all score 90+.

Last year was the first time this was used. It got 6 of the first 7 in the race. Did you?
I've just screenshot my bet history from then, stakes blanked out obviously.

Bet365 also did an offer that morning, meaning I got 10 bets on for the price of 5. I hope they do that again this year. :D

proof.png

Really interesting and well done on last years bets. 6 of the first 7 can’t be a fluke, too much of a coincidence. As Graham says, if nothing else it’s a really effective way of narrowing down a field of 40 - you’re bound to get the odd anomaly in a race of that nature. I imagine it’s fairly time consuming going through each runner and scoring them according to the above? 

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Anyway I am going to start work on this this weekend.

On 30/03/2018 at 3:40 PM, FleetFanatic said:

Each trend met, you score that number of points out of 11, so the maximum score is 99.
If the trend is not met on the 10/11, you score 1
If the trend is not met on the 9/11, you score 2


Aged between 8 and 11 years old: 11/11 
Best RPR during last 12 months of at least 5 lbs higher than current Official Rating: 10/11 
Best RPR during past 12 months within last 3 starts over fences: 10/11 
Weight Carried between 10.03 and 11.03: 10/11 
Won a chase over at least 3 miles and 1/2 furlong: 10/11 
Placed in a chase over at least 3 miles and 2 furlongs: 10/11 
Previously won no more than 5 times over fences: 10/11 
Previously won a chase worth £/€ 31 k, or placed in a chase worth at least £/€ 51 k: 10/11 
Last ran between 22 and 49 days prior to this race: 9/11 
Previously recorded no more than 1 fall/unseated rider non completion over fences: 9/11

Will only be going though those aged 8-11 as if you fail that criteria you can only score 88.

Done the first 10 already!

Edited by FleetFanatic
Max without age is 88 not 89

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First 40 plus next 7 in the weights.

In comparing RPR to OR, the OR used for the race weights is used,
not what the weight is already due to change to.

MINELLA ROCCO (IRE)    67    
BLAKLION        83    
ANIBALE FLY (FR)    90    
THE LAST SAMURI (IRE)    81    
VALSEUR LIDO (FR)    49    
TOTAL RECALL (IRE)    74    
ALPHA DES OBEAUX (FR)    65    
GOLD PRESENT (IRE)    72    
PERFECT CANDIDATE (IRE)    74    
SHANTOU FLYER (IRE)    90    
TENOR NIVERNAIS (FR)    58    
CARLINGFORD LOUGH (IRE)    AGE    
VICENTE (FR)        92    
TIGER ROLL (IRE)    99    
REGAL ENCORE (IRE)    83    
VIEUX LION ROUGE (FR)    83    
CHASE THE SPUD        83
WARRIORS TALE        74    
SEEYOUATMIDNIGHT    74    
GAS LINE BOY (IRE)    AGE    
THE DUTCHMAN (IRE)    83    
PLEASANT COMPANY (IRE)    74    
UCELLO CONTI (FR)    76    
SAINT ARE (FR)        AGE
BEEVES (IRE)        81    
RAZ DE MAREE (FR)    AGE
I JUST KNOW (IRE)    81
VIRGILIO (FR)        74
BAIE DES ILES (FR)    AGE
MAGGIO (FR)        AGE
PENDRA (IRE)        81
BUYWISE (IRE)        65
CHILDRENS LIST (IRE)    65
HOUBLON DES OBEAUX (FR)    67
LORD WINDERMERE (IRE)    AGE
CAPTAIN REDBEARD (IRE)    72
BLESS THE WINGS (IRE)    AGE
MILANSBAR (IRE)        99
FINAL NUDGE (IRE)    81
DOUBLE ROSS (IRE)    AGE

ROAD TO RICHES (IRE)    56
DELUSIONOFGRANDEUR (IRE)83
THUNDER AND ROSES (IRE)    76

As it stands, either I've done something wrong or this isn't as strong as last year?

Edited by FleetFanatic
Removed Non-Runners

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Just finished rating grand national top 45 runners ....

Milansbar.   605 

Regal encore.  589 

Rathvinden.   577 

These 3 are well clear of the rest so on my ratings I'd be surprised if one of the 3 doesn't go close ........milansbar isn' in yet currently 45 so needs 5 to drop out before sat which is likely .......rathvinden was on my shortlist ....and as milansbar and rathvinden are both on fleets shortlist above they've now become ultra interesting.......Regal encore is the surprise package ...no one' mentioned but he' popped up in ratings ........current prices top 3 33/1 ...33/1...20/1

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Rathvinden is doubtful, as is Bellshill who ran a few days ago.

5 don't need to drop out, we are already without numbers 10, 21 & 25.

What did you rate Tiger Roll? I have backed this horse so many times, glad it scored 90+ in mine.

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13 hours ago, FleetFanatic said:

Rathvinden is doubtful, as is Bellshill who ran a few days ago.

5 don't need to drop out, we are already without numbers 10, 21 & 25.

What did you rate Tiger Roll? I have backed this horse so many times, glad it scored 90+ in mine.

Tiger roll I rated 537 ......and he' 8 yr old so combination made me rule him out .....he' well fancied and Elliot horse so I woujdnt put off anyone backing him but for purposes of narrowing the field I omitted everyone not within shouting distance so looks like just milansbar and regal encore for me then so far .......regal encore was the surprise for me but the more I read the more I like him .......but tiger roll definately is top 6 so has to be in any shortlist and trainer can do no wrong currently 

https://www.racingpost.com/news/richie-mclernon-eyes-grand-national-compensation-after-regal-encore-rehearsal/326116

Edited by richard-westwood

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One I am on Ante Post at 33/1 is Gas Line Boy. Finished 5th last year at 50/1, had just the three runs since then in veteran chase company and has ran brilliantly in all 3 including the grand Sefton over the national fences at Aintree, loves a bit of cut in the ground and has a good pilot on board who has a good Aintree record. Only thing going against him is his age. 33/1 is still available in some places and that is tremendous value in my eyes. 

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Here is a trend and stat,my GN pick a few weeks ago was Seeyouatmidnight,backed at 40s and 33s ew before he was qualified and continued until his "Qualifier" at Newbury,even now 16s is acceptable if you are not already on.

However he has been bought by the owners of Chevely Park Stud,a habit they have of buying horses a few days or weeks before the race.They did win with Party Politics but failed since so according to stats and trends he has NO CHANCE because lightening NEVER strikes twice in the same place?

Bullshit of course in terms of fact and not stats or trends but maybe my original reply did decry trends and stats too offhand for some.However my point was and still is that trends and stats can be manipulated before and after an event which is no good if a profit from betting is hoped for,bearing in mind a bet has to be before an event.

e.g Willie Mullins and Gigginstown had never won the Irish National until this year,using trends and stats few would have found the winner.

Trends and stats are fine for some and as Billy Hills says not all are stupid and might use them to thin out a large field like the GN,fair enough but the bookies already have this info and built in to their tissue mostly so where is the value?

The value is in opposing the stats and trends not to mention self satisfaction imo when you have cracked the puzzle e.g Neptune Collonges.My very good friend,once the youngest licenced bookie in the UK recalls his dad doing his nuts as a layer up until Nicholas Silver saved the day.The only reason 33/1 was available when Neptune won was because of the stats and trends i.e No Grey since NS etc,never factoring in the small percentage of greys taking part since NS.Without factoring in percentages etc it makes stats and trends a sheep following exercise doomed to failure for serious punting and long term profit

As soon as someone mentions being accomodated by Bet 365 the red flag goes to the top of the mast,unless you have been limited to "maximum bet" option 10p win,you know you have failed to make a profit.

All that apart good luck in however you bet,not here to judge only to help,sometimes it is better to be cruel to be kind although not sure about current trends??????????

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1 hour ago, Glentoby said:

Here is a trend and stat,my GN pick a few weeks ago was Seeyouatmidnight,backed at 40s and 33s ew before he was qualified and continued until his "Qualifier" at Newbury,even now 16s is acceptable if you are not already on.

Sorry Glentoby, where did you tip this at 40/1, cant seem to find it anywhere?

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8 hours ago, Glentoby said:

You wont find it anywhere Billy,I did not say I had tipped him...........merely backed him which btw the post was not about.My tip is him but at 16/1 ew if anyone has any interest. HTH

Ok mate, just wanted to read the reasoning behind the selection. Its interesting to see what makes punters prefer one horse over another in such a wide open contest.

Anyway, it was  a good story, fitted the trends of the author you could say:clap

Cant wait now, just a few days left, i'm 14 miles from Aintree and its pissing down again this morning .

:hope

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1 hour ago, BillyHills said:

Ok mate, just wanted to read the reasoning behind the selection. Its interesting to see what makes punters prefer one horse over another in such a wide open contest.

Anyway, it was  a good story, fitted the trends of the author you could say:clap

Cant wait now, just a few days left, i'm 14 miles from Aintree and its pissing down again this morning .

:hope

any idea on the ground billy?

i know it drains well but got to be soft at least?

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Ok here we go with my version of the 'Trends' selection

Key Trends:

20/20 Had at least 3 starts this season
We lose Tenor Nivernais, Seeyouatmidnight, Pleasant Company, Ucello Conti, Saint Are, Pendra, Children's List. Lord Windermere. (8)

19/20 Ran within 2 months
We lose Minella Rocco, Alpha Des Obeaux, Perfect Candidate, Carlingford Lough, Warriors Tale, Gas Line Boy, Raz De Maree, Virgilio, Buywise, (9)

17/20 Irish or French Bred
We lose Blaklion, Chase The Spud, (2)

7/10 Rated 148 or above
We lose I Just Know, Baie Des Iles, Captain Redbeard, Final Nudge, All Reserves (8)

16/20 Carried 11st or less
We lose Anibale Fly, The Last Samuri, Valseur Lido, Total Recall, Gold Present, Shantou Flyer (6)

15/20 Aged under 11
We lose Beeves, Maggio, Houblon Des Obeaux, Bless The Wings, Milansbar, Double Ross, Road To Riches (7)

Horses Left: Vicente, Tiger Roll, Regal Encore, Vieux Lion Rouge, The Dutchman

13/20 Placed last time out
We Lose Vicente, The Dutchman (both Pulled Up), Vieux Lion Rouge (4th of 6)

19/20 Won at 3m or more
Tiger Roll, Regal Encore both have won over 3m

 

Selections

Tiger Roll 12/1 Paddy Power (EW first 6)
Regal Encore 33/1 Paddy Power (EW first 6)

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