Jump to content
Announcements
** October Nap's Competition Result: 1st Zilzalian, 2nd Mickyftm32, 3rd Joales, 4th internetmails KO Cup: redno2009, Most Winners: Xtc12**
** Football Tipster Competition Result : 1st MrJol, 2nd buga00, 3rd glavintoby, 4th Boulder5111, 5th bobsyerunkle **

Big Race Trends - Sat March 10th


Recommended Posts

225 Sandown

2m (1m7f216y) Matchbook Imperial Cup Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) (Class 1) (4yo+)

Previous Winners

Screen Shot 2018-03-05 at 17.16.56.png

 

Key Trends

9/10 carried less than 11st
9/10 ran within 45 days
8/10 Aged 4,5,6
8/10 Won at this trip before
8/10 Irish/French Bred
6/10 Rated 130+
10/15 placed on last completed start

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Something a bit different this week, a race on the AW

205 Wolverhampton

1m½f (1m142y) sunbets.co.uk Lincoln Trial Handicap (Class 2) (4yo+ 0-105)

Screen Shot 2018-03-06 at 09.15.18.png

 

Key Trends

10/10 Rated 91-99
9/10 Aged 4,5 or 6
9/10 SP in single figures
8/10 Had at least one run this year
7/10 Carried more than 9st
6/10 Placed last time out
6/10 Irish Bred

:ok

Link to post
Share on other sites

2.05 Wolves:


Screen Shot 2018-03-08 at 11.32.33.png

 

10/10 Rated 91-99
We lose Mr Scramanga, Big Country, Swift Emperor, Rouge Nuage

9/10 Aged 4,5 or 6
We lose Pactolus, My Target, Original Choice, Examiner, Mythical Madness


8/10 Had at least one run this year - lose none
7/10 Carried more than 9st - lose none

6/10 Placed last time out
lose Third Time Lucky


6/10 Irish Bred
lose Dragon Mall

Selection:

Constantino EW 10/1 Paddy Power

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

225 Sandown

Screen Shot 2018-03-08 at 11.38.39.png

 

9/10 carried less than 11st
We lose Call Me Lord, Chiti Balko


9/10 ran within 45 days
We lose Fidux, Highway One O One, Master Of Irony, Octagon


8/10 Aged 4,5,6
We lose Whatswrongwithyou, Hunstman Son, Mr Antollini, Birch Hill, Gassin Golf, Man Of Plenty


8/10 Won at this trip before
We lose Le Patriote, Shanroe Saint


8/10 Irish/French Bred
We lose Castafiore

6/10 Rated 130+
We lose Friday Night Light

 

Selection:

Silver Streak EW 9/1 Coral

Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, BillyHills said:

2.05 Wolves:


Screen Shot 2018-03-08 at 11.32.33.png

 

10/10 Rated 91-99
We lose Mr Scramanga, Big Country, Swift Emperor, Rouge Nuage

9/10 Aged 4,5 or 6
We lose Pactolus, My Target, Original Choice, Examiner, Mythical Madness


8/10 Had at least one run this year - lose none
7/10 Carried more than 9st - lose none

6/10 Placed last time out
lose Third Time Lucky


6/10 Irish Bred
lose Dragon Mall

Selection:

Constantino EW 10/1 Paddy Power

 

Rated this .....

Mr scaramanga   380

Constantine    375

Original choice   370 

Original choice got to prove on all weather with best form on turf and soft....and very high in weights too ......top 2 both good prices currently ...look ew fab bets tbh 

Mr scaramaga 10pts ew 12/1 pp

Constantino 10ptsxew  10/1 pp

Good luck all 

Edited by richard-westwood
Link to post
Share on other sites

2.25 Sandown - Imperial Cup

just picking out some trends that have at least 2/3rd relevance

15/15 – Had won no more than twice over hurdles before
14/15 – Had won between 1-2 times over hurdles before
13/15 – Carried 10-13 or less
12/15 – Aged 6 or younger
10/15 – Had won over at least 2m1f (hurdles) before

those 5 trends have got me down to 2 runners

Just cheating a little bit on the 'won over 2 miles 1 furlong' as one of my selection has won over the extended 2 miles at Newbury.

Friday Night Light - EW at 10/1 bet365

Highway One O One - EW at 14/1 wm hill

Link to post
Share on other sites

2.05 Wolv - Lincoln Trial

14/15 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
14/15 – Aged 6 or younger
13/15 – Won over a mile (or further) before
12/15– Won at least three times before
9/15 – Ran at Lingfield last time out

Those trends leave me with 2 runners. I'm not overly happy about using 'had raced within 6 weeks' as trainers can get them ready at home better these days with all weather gallops etc but it did enable me to delete another 3 from my original short list (which was too long !)

Also not overly keen on 'Ran at Lingfield' last time but it got me down from 3 to 2

Mr Scaramanga - EW at 12/1 PP

Constantino - EW at 8/1 Corals

 

Edited by Trotter
Link to post
Share on other sites

Just a question

Does anyone actually use race trends, as I cant see any statistical significance in such  a small sample size.

Reason being IMO

A sample size of 10 gives a confidence level of around 37% where to be of any statistical significance should be minimum around the 95%+ mark

Its a bit like picking a horse because it has your mothers / fathers or brothers etc name in the horses name, no relevance to whether it wins or loses whatsoever.

Trends are useless unless you are using a standard as a comparison.

Take the 2.25 Sandown

Using past 10 yrs results and 95% confidence levels

The winner should fall between the ratings below

image.png.e689b9620bdf5ca5c299380df0fb4dc9.png

Now look at the OR,TS and RPR for Saturdays race

image.png.7a7ee434f595f196890cf24d224c3404.png

All Saturdays horses are rated better than the previous years (near as dammit) so you cant use past trends as the race (for whatever reason) has a totally different shape to previous years and any trends which eliminate horses are just ' statistical noise' due to the data difference and small sample size.

 

Edited by Valiant Thor
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Valiant Thor said:

Just a question

Does anyone actually use race trends, as I cant see any statistical significance in such  a small sample size.

Reason being IMO

A sample size of 10 gives a confidence level of around 37% where to be of any statistical significance should be minimum around the 95%+ mark

Its a bit like picking a horse because it has your mothers / fathers or brothers etc name in the horses name, no relevance to whether it wins or loses whatsoever.

Trends are useless unless you are using a standard as a comparison.

Take the 2.25 Sandown

Using past 10 yrs results and 95% confidence levels

The winner should fall between the ratings below

image.png.e689b9620bdf5ca5c299380df0fb4dc9.png

Now look at the OR,TS and RPR for Saturdays race

image.png.7a7ee434f595f196890cf24d224c3404.png

All Saturdays horses are rated better than the previous years (near as dammit) so you cant use past trends as the race (for whatever reason) has a totally different shape to previous years and any trends which eliminate horses are just ' statistical noise' due to the data difference and small sample size.

 

I use them a lot ....in a race ......if 15/15 were 7-10 yr old it' pointless looking outside this band ......likewise if 14/15 ran at grade1 course last time ... . Why wouldn't you use that to your advantage.....thats 95% probability.... ..    I like them and find they really help a lot to narrow things ...but you have to be flexible and not take it as gospel ..     so I tend to rate all runners first then apply trends later and see what it does and look at big picture.....it' a guide really 

Link to post
Share on other sites

RW

Im not saying punters shouldnt use them , just stating that dont fall into the trap you've just stated

3 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

I use them a lot ....in a race ......if 15/15 were 7-10 yr old it' pointless looking outside this band ......likewise if 14/15 ran at grade1 course last time ... . Why wouldn't you use that to your advantage.....thats 95% probability.... ..    I like them and find they really help a lot to narrow things ...but you have to be flexible and not take it as gospel ..     so I tend to rate all runners first then apply trends later and see what it does and look at big picture.....it' a guide really 

Its only 95% prob over so few bets which is not statistically correct , I wouldnt touch those stats with a barge pole, thats why books love trends you can find them on most bookies sites and racing post.

jockey A rides for trainer B 100% strike rate

you look into it they've had 2 rides , technically correct ,statistically garbage .

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Good question !

I think a lot of trends are fairly useless but I treat it as a bit of fun !

I certainly wouldn't bet on the basis of trends

I think some trends do have value though in the big handicaps ...... those would be the ones around age, number of runs, number of wins,....... the basis being that trainers tend to be creatures of habit and they will identify horses as 'he's a Lincoln Horse' or 'he's a County Hurdle horse' ...... and generally what they mean is lightly raced, young horses who are better than the handicapper has been able to assess them because they haven't run very often

And I expect that trainers will be preparing the same kind of horse for those big races each season because they have a template in their mind as to what is the kind of horse that might win that kind of race

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Yes ...some stats are rubbish .....but take the champion hurdle .....15/15 didn' run in hcap last time ......brill stat ....so if you back any horse who ran in one you' have lost every year for past 15 years ....no way I'd back against that .....14/15 ran within 52days ...that' huge stat I know from experience that one is a biggy .... sometimes races buck trends for a year but then bounce back the following year .... I think it' like trotter said ...it points to a type ....young ...lightly raced ...low weighted etc......and time and time again it rings true .....certain races are geared to certain horses without a doubt ....look at the grand national 

I love them tbh....helped me so many times I've lost count but 8/10 absolute minimum .....if never take a 6/10 stat for instance

Edited by richard-westwood
Link to post
Share on other sites

Take Cheltenham this week ..... every other race has trend about grade 1 course last time.....not because that course suits better it just means the horse had a strong prep run against classier opposition....so naturally they do better at chelt .....again ..a type ....so it' a great stat to use ..I'll def be using it 

Edited by richard-westwood
Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

Take Cheltenham this week ..... every other race has trend about grade 1 course last time.....not because that course suits better it just means the horse had a strong prep run against classier opposition....so naturally they do better at chelt .....again ..a type ....so it' a great stat to use 

How many grade 1 horses v how many non grade 1 horses have run ?

thats the trend you should be looking at to see if its significant.

If all horses in the race have run in a grade 1 race does that mean a dead heat, no, so the trend again is insignificant.

Just pointing out that if taken as gospel ,trends are just a turkey shoot

If you use them good luck to to you,but they're to vague for me to use, they pinpoint too many horses in a race and you end up betting against yourself

Edited by Valiant Thor
spelling
Link to post
Share on other sites

 

36 minutes ago, BillyHills said:

Spoil sport, we are having a nice time here each weekend.

:\

 

What floats your boat Valiant?

Not against trends BH if punters like them so e it,I just personally find them too vague and poorly stat related to be of any use to me.

Ive found a nice niche in top class flat racing and for the last few years have been making a nice return so I stick to what works, very automatic and boring.

I must be one of the most disciplined punter on this message board totally stats orientated think its because Im an engineer if I cant get a race down to 2 or 3 and the right price for the top rated I wont even consider a bet, Id rather give it a miss.

Not a lover of jumps but saying that I have seen a few I think are overpriced at Chelt for an ew L15 to small stakes or a straight ew fourfold is more likely, but not made my mind up yet as a couple may be a touch ground dependant, but I wont be having a bet just for a bit of action because its Chelt or any meeting for that matter thats for sure.

Edited by Valiant Thor
Link to post
Share on other sites

I like trends. Obviously they're better at predicting the past than the future, but they can have their uses. The trick, of course, is to work out which are significant.

I have a question for trend followers -- do you know where I can easily find records of past races? Until a while ago the Bet365 site often provided a race history at the bottom of the listings, but for whatever reason it now shows nothing but the last year at best. I'm willing to pay for Racing Post access if I have to -- would either or both paid versions provide this info?

Link to post
Share on other sites

@Lynx welcome to the discussion

It depends on what you want?

If you just want previous winners with age/weight/etc... then we have that on the Punters Lounge racecards;

https://www.punterslounge.com/horse-racing/racecards/10-march-2018/sandown/2.25

At the bottom of the race just click the 'more' option to see previous years.

Screen Shot 2018-03-10 at 09.29.21.png

ATR also carry previous winners.

If you want more detail then you need to go to a paid service so you can filter certain trends

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Lynx said:

I like trends. Obviously they're better at predicting the past than the future, but they can have their uses. The trick, of course, is to work out which are significant.

 

Yes ...  I think that's the bit where you have to use some judgment

If I see a list of trends for a race I try and think of which ones are specific to this race and which ones are just general to all horse racing

So for a big handicap I might look at age, number of runs, number of wins, trainer of past winners, ...... all which might point to a type of horse that trainers are preparing for this big handicap

Other trends seem to be just general horse racing trends and are not specific to this race. For example '8/10 were single figure prices' ...... that probably just relates to all racing and isn't specific to this race. Shorter priced horses win more than bigger priced ones !

Link to post
Share on other sites

2.25 – Matchbook Imperial Cup Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) Cl1 2m110y 
15/15 – Had won no more than twice over hurdles before  (1,2,4,7,9,10,12,14,)
14/15 – Had won between 1-2 times over hurdles before  (16)
14/15 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks  (6,8)
13/15 – Carried 10-13 or less
12/15 – Aged 6 or younger  (3,5,11)

Friday Night Light - 1 Pt EW @ 12\1 Paddy Power

2.05 – Sunbets.co.uk Lincoln Trial Handicap Cl2 1m141y 
14/15 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks  (2,9,10,11)
14/15 – Aged 6 or younger  (3,4,12)
13/15 – Won over a mile (or further) before  
12/15– Won at least three times before  (1,5)
9/15 – Ran at Lingfield last time out  (6)

Constantino 1 Pt EW @ 5\1 Paddy Power

Link to post
Share on other sites
42 minutes ago, Trotter said:

Other trends seem to be just general horse racing trends and are not specific to this race. For example '8/10 were single figure prices' ...... that probably just relates to all racing and isn't specific to this race. Shorter priced horses win more than bigger priced ones !

Trotter dont you think if 8/10 winners have been single figures it also tells you something?

It might mean this is a handicap that is targeted by certain 'well handicapped' horses that get gambled on, I think betting info can be useful in certain races. The only problem with this kind of trend is that we don't actually know what the SP is going to be when we are trying to sort out the winner a few days before. I think to say its just racing related and not specific is being a bit harsh.

If a trend keeps repeating itself there is usually a valid reason behind it, you just have to be able to read between the lines sometimes and not take the stats blindly. For this thread I often just do the maths but its fun trying to sort out the big races.

:ok

Link to post
Share on other sites

I agree ....it' fun to tackle the big races ...and to narrow down a 28 runner race you gotta use something .....even if you can chop half the field it improves your chances tenfold .....so if the last 15 winners were 4-6 yr old...why would I back an older horse....you can argue sample size ..etc  but had you backed an older horse last year you'  have lost .....year before ...lost ...year before etc.........I think you can "overthink" a trend sometimes .......for whatever reason if young horses win this race ....then just accept it graciously ....don' question why ...lol 

Link to post
Share on other sites
45 minutes ago, BillyHills said:

Trotter dont you think if 8/10 winners have been single figures it also tells you something?

Well I don't think it tells you much more than 'this a horse race' !

The main reason I'm not keen on SP related trends is that treating it as a bit of fun I'm using the trends to find out which horses should be short prices but are good EW value based on the trends

Just looking at the first few in the betting kind of defeats the object

Interesting discussion though ......... :ok

and as I said it's just a bit of fun and makes for a readable thread every week

Link to post
Share on other sites
49 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

I agree ....it' fun to tackle the big races ...and to narrow down a 28 runner race you gotta use something .....even if you can chop half the field it improves your chances tenfold .....so if the last 15 winners were 4-6 yr old...why would I back an older horse....you can argue sample size ..etc  but had you backed an older horse last year you'  have lost .....year before ...lost ...year before etc.........I think you can "overthink" a trend sometimes .......for whatever reason if young horses win this race ....then just accept it graciously ....don' question why ...lol 

So your saying if you thought the best horse in the race was a 7 y old you wouldnt back it because the last 15 winners were 4-6 y olds :eyes

the mind boggles

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

This is what we have so far ...... assume EW

Sandown 2.25

Silver Streak (BH)

Friday Night Light (Trotter, Xtc)

Highway One O One (Trotter)

Friday Night Light has been well backed and is in to 2nd Fav at 6/1. Silver Streak and Highway One O One are both holding their price at 12/1

 

Wolves 2.05

Constantino (BH, RW's Ratings, Trotter, Xtc)

Mr Scaranaga (Trotter, RW's Ratings)

Constantino has halved in price overnight and is currently 2nd Fav at 5/1, Mr Scaramaga is currently 3rd Fav at 7/1

Link to post
Share on other sites

Trends can be useful, they can show occasionally where the winners are mostly grouped to produce that trend.

Here is a more complete overview of the trends BH used for Wolves 2.05 Lincoln Trial (last ten runnings).

Trend1.thumb.PNG.1375a593b37c3a17cc8202dcfb400b8e.PNG

 

SP in single figures - 9 winners from a pool 54  runners (SR 16.67%) compared to 1 winner from a pool of 66 runners (SR 1.00%)

OR - 10 winners from a pool of 81 runners (SR 12.34%) compared to 0 winners from a pool of 39 runners (SR 0.00%)

Breeding - 6 winners from 51 runners (SR 11.76%) compared to 4 winners from 69 runners (SR 5.79%)

Weight carried - 7 winners from a pool of 72 runners (SR 9.72%) compared to 3 winners from a pool of 48 runners (SR 6.25%)

Age 4 to 6 yo's - 9 wins from a pool 89 runners (SR 9.72%) compared to 1 winner from a pool of 31 runners (SR 3.22%)

Placed last run (up to 4th place LTO) - 6 winners from a pool of 62 runners (SR 9.67%) compared to 3 winners from a pool of 58 runners (SR 5.17%)

At least one run this year (used 90 days here) - 8 winners from a pool of 79 runners (SR 10.12%) compared to 2 winners from a pool 41 runners (SR 4.87%)

 

They should be treated with some caution though, using a more complete picture could show if a trend has been used correctly from within the pool of runners that trend may be using and not simply cherry picked from a pool that may not be representa.

Using SP as a trend may be better used in the run up to the race start (last 10 minutes) rather than ante post, simply because they are the returned SP's and won't show market fluctuations etc.

Using BH's above trends does indeed eliminate all but Constanino.

 

Here's my trends shortlist

Age - 4 to 6yo's

Breeding - GB or IRE

OR's - 69 to 99

 

This leaves three -

Constantino

Third Time Lucky

Swift Emperor

 

Which I'll dutch -

Constantino - 0.63pts @ 9/2 to win Paddy Power

Third Time Lucky - 1.21pts @ 15/8 to place (3 places) Paddy Power

Swift Emperor - 1.16pts @ 2/1 to place (3 places) Paddy Power

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Valiant Thor said:

So your saying if you thought the best horse in the race was a 7 y old you wouldnt back it because the last 15 winners were 4-6 y olds :eyes

the mind boggles

 

 But there's a reverse side to that....if the last 15 were .....youd' back a 7 yr old ....when 100 % were 4-6?? .....yes if my top rated was 7 and 2nd and 3rd 4 yr old ....I'd back the 2nd and 3rd rated.....absolutely no doubt given the race profile lol.....that' how I've always done it and it works I'd say 8/10 the trends will hold .....but saying that .....Mr scaramaga was top rated but fails trends but I still backed......but I've backed the horse that passed too to be safe..lol....it' a guide not set in stone 

Edited by richard-westwood
Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

 But there's a reverse side to that....if the last 15 were .....youd' back a 7 yr old ....when 100 % were 4-6?? ....

Absolutely ,why should I back against my own judgement simply because something happened a few times years ago.

If I cant trust my own judgement I wouldnt be backing horses.

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
×
  • Create New...