Premier League Predictions > Mar 1st - 5th

[Tiffy]

Spreadex go 56-59 for the time of the first Brighton goal.

i can see them scoring in the first half

Sell time of first Brighton goal @56 

Have also done BTTS & Brighton 1X@ 2.75 with B365 bet builder

[newjack]

Brighton - Arsenal

Everyone is hot and heavy on Brighton and rightfully so. Arsenal has been in shambles lately. I don't see a bright future for Arsene unless he turns this around somehow. So why not go with the popular trend that is home team for sure @4.20 currently at bet365. You can also play AHC +0,5 @1.99 Bet365. This is a bigger stake IMO.

City - Chelsea

Hard to not go with Citizens here but slightly too low odd for me. Chelsea has had up and down games lately, could have won against United but didn't. City are of course looking to secure tittle and will come swinging. I don't believe that midweek UCL game is of any factor, they play Basel at home on Wednesday but given that they have 4 away goals I don't see that match as a particular factor. Another important factor is City home's over record. Out of the last 14 matches they've played at home, 13 went over 2.5, and 9/14 over 3.5. Thats a hefty goal number. But on the other hand Chelsea's away record is 10/14 games were over 2.5's and 6/14 over 3.5's.  So my bet will be over 3 @2.075 Bet365.

Best of luck,

J

[Pep004]

Brighton v Arsenal; 14:30

Brighton will miss long-term injured Sidwell.

Arsenal cannot count on defender Monreal, midfielder Cazorla and forward Lacazette. Midfielder Wilshere is questionable.

Short preview: Arsenal lost twice 3-0 in last two matches, but both times the opponent was Manchester City. Currently one of the best teams in the world, and even though everyone is talking about "Wenger out" and how bad Arsenal actually is, I've seen plenty of positive things in the second half from them, and I really like the odds on them here. They will face pretty decent Brighton lately, who is currently on an unbeaten run for 6 consecutive matches. They have won last two home matches with 3-1 and 4-1, but opponents were West Ham and Swansea. Hughton has zero problems with injuries, they are currently on 12th spot, so they are without some extra pressure, even though the 18th spot is only 4 points away from them. Arsenal is 6th and losing touch with 5th Chelsea who is currently 8 points in front of them.  Chelsea is going to play on Etihad today, so Wenger could count on favor of Manchester City. With Aubameyang, Özil, and Mikhitaryan, Arsenal is a team capable of creating chances against every single opponent. They had some decent against Man City as well, but they were horrible at finishing. Amex stadium is a hot venue, but I think that as Chelsea managed to win here with 0-4 without Courtois, Morata, Fabregas, Pedro,... Arsenal can bounce back with a win here and I suggest taking them on -0,5 handicap with odds around 2,00.

[Sir Puntalot]

Nicely done on Brighton everyone too, the ratings had them well ahead too.  

[Magic0024]

Football Facts and Streaks regarding Premier League

Crystal Palace conceded at least 1 goal in 86% of their home matches in Premier League.
Crystal Palace have scored 36% of their goals after the 75th minute in Premier League.
Manchester Utd have scored in 71% of their away matches in Premier League.
There have been under 2.5 goals scored in Man Utd's last 4 away games in Premier League.
There have been under 2.5 goals scored in Crystal Palace's last 4 home games in Premier League.

You can find interesting 50 Football Betting Streaks for 05.03.2018 on this link ... http://eurofootballrumours.com/football-facts-streaks-05-03-2018-8672

[Tiffy]

you were brave backing Arsenal this weekend @Pep004

Brighton need to win their home games, and are now playing with an attacking swagger that results in goals.

What I have noticed this season (well every season!) is that when there is a split between the fans and the board/manager, then that negativity translates to the players on the pitch. We've witnesses it at the Amex this season with West Ham, West Brom, now Arsenal.

Arsenal were utter rubbish in the first half yesterday, a team showing no confidence, and you wonder if the manager has the ability to inspire the players anymore. Ozick & Aubamiyang will be realising that there so 0 chance of CL football, and EL is far from guaranteed.

Body language tells you they are not up for the fight, the manager can't inspire his players, the fans are on his back. 

Interestingly enough, Brighton are away to another club like that on Saturday, EVERTON. The fans are set against Allardyce & his style of play. 

 

[harry_rag]

Palace v Man U, I've had 2 bets on away cards (though would have probably only had the second if I'd seen it first).

2-3 Man U cards at 13/10 with Hills, 20 or more Man U bookings points at 11/10 with Skybet.

I make it that, of United's 14 away games, they've received <2 cards in 4, 2-3 cards in 9 and >3 in just 1.

I could make a case for buying their bookings at 17 but might top up in running depending on how the price falls and the game goes. Worst case scenario is United have it all their own way and run up a comfortable lead but, all in all, I'd say they're odds on to receive at least 2 yellow cards.

[Pep004]

@Tiffy my biggest mistake in this pick was, that I was talking mostly about Arsenal... seeing some positive things in a match against City, but I totally misjudged the home side (and obviously expected way too much of positive energy from Arsenal as well).  My biggest problem when analyzing PL matches is that I have a point of view only from matches of Man City, and that's pretty much irrelevant as only a few sides (IF) can press and outplay someone as they can.  That's also why my record in PL is only a few units in profit,... Should read this thread more often, as some of you guys are describing some teams and situations very precisely.

Edited March 6, 2018 by Pep004

[Tiffy]

26 minutes ago, Pep004 said:

@Tiffy my biggest mistake in this pick was, that I was talking mostly about Arsenal... seeing some positive things in a match against City, but I totally misjudged the home side (and obviously expected way too much of positive energy from Arsenal as well).  My biggest problem when analyzing PL matches is that I have a point of view only from matches of Man City, and that's pretty much irrelevant as only a few sides (IF) can press and outplay someone as they can.  That's also why my record in PL is only a few units in profit,... Should read this thread more often, as some of you guys are describing some teams and situations very precisely.

Cheers, well it's only taken me about 9 months to start calling things with a bit more accuracy!

Everyones thoughts are valid, and we all see different strengths and weaknesses in teams, and your opinion certainly got me thinking about my comments and whether I was calling it right or not. 

But I would leave Arsenal alone in the PL, until they have sorted this mess out. They may go for it in the Europa League though, as it will be the only way they will qualify for CL next season. 

But City are a different animal this season, just breathtaking to watch and incredible to think they could wrap the title up soon.