StevieDay1983

Premier League Predictions > Mar 1st - 5th

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Listen up people......

I'll make a bold statement and say that Brighton could beat Arsenal at the weekend.

We have been playing some great football recently, and confidence is high. All the squad want to play in every match, especially the upcoming cup game at Old Trafford. CH has a real selection headache at the moment, as all the strikers are scoring!

We played great against an inproving Swabsea side, who themselves have beaten the Gunners recently.

Arsenal, are looking toothless at the moment, and their new players have yet to get going. Brighton have a really tough April/May with games agianst Spurs, Liverpool, Manure, Palace & Man City (rearranged from the 18th March)

Brighton have to get some points on the board now and we have Arsenal, Leicester & Huddersfield at home over the next few weeks, so expect some good performances as they try and reach safety. The gap could be widening as teams start to drop away in March.

Ive not been inpressed with Arsenal recently, especiallywith their lack of goals in big games.

@Mindfulness Any value in the Brighton DC@ 2.05?

BTTS looks a great bet@ 1.7

EDIT- Since posting this, I have just found out that Arsenal are playing City again on Thursday. Also, I picked up the RFO this morning and they are all over Brighton on the DC.. Figaro makes the Brighton win 7/5 (2.40), so it would suggest some definite value here this weekend.

Edited by Tiffy

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49 minutes ago, Mindfulness said:

Sorry mate, I've had a cold recently so haven't had a chance to do much in-depth analysis on games. If I have time this week I will post again.

I wondered where you were!  (I wouldn't go as far as to say I missed you:loon)

Hope you feel better soon.  I've had it too over the last week, just about going now. Anyway, thanks that would be good to get your input. I need to get back to winning ways this weekend.

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1 hour ago, fine margins said:

fcuk me these ELO ratings are uncannily good. Who watches all the matches?

It's the elite team of PL pixies that we have working hard down in the dungeon. They get three square meals and we don't whip them more than necessary so it's all fair.

Check out our ELO ratings section to find out all you need to know...

https://forum.punterslounge.com/forum/234-elo-ratings-discussion/

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Football Facts and Streaks regarding Premier League

Arsenal conceded at least 1 goal in each of their last 9 matches in Premier League.
Arsenal have scored in 100% of their home matches in Premier League.
Arsenal have scored 2 goals or more in each of their last 4 home matches in Premier League.
Manchester City have won 77% of their away matches in Premier League.
Manchester City have scored in 92% of their away matches in Premier League.

You can find interesting 63 Football Betting Streaks for 01.03.2018 on this link ... http://eurofootballrumours.com/football-facts-streaks-01-03-2018-8644

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Arsenal vs Manchester City

The post-mortem of the Carabao Cup Final murder last Sunday has continued all week with even Arsene Wenger's biggest allies now claiming his position beyond this season is untenable. It seems that the Frenchman fails to learn from his mistakes time and time again. It was humiliating last weekend. Not just the score-line but the attitude of the Arsenal players. Walking around having given up. Shambolic.

How on earth can anyone have any confidence that the Gunners will take something from this game after that? It could be argued that the players will want to make amends but I'm not sure they have the mental strength to do that. I don't think Wenger has the get up and go to motivate these players any more.

I don't think City will turn up at the Emirates and destroy Arsenal again. I think we will see a more encouraging effort from the home side. I just don't think this Arsenal team is anywhere close to the standard of this City team right now. My cautious side is still keen to avoid backing the outright. As I always say, Arsenal will let you down when you back them and they'll shock you when you write them off.

Let's make no mistake though. This is firmly a clash between the champions elect and a run-of-the-mill Europa League team. You could easily replace Arsenal with an Everton, Leicester, or Burnley right now. Their recent woes have seen their expectations drop that much. I'm backing over 3.5 goals on a very cold night. I think I might back Aguero to score anytime as well.

Total Goals Scored Over 3.5 @ 2.30 with BetVictor

Anytime Scorer: Sergio Aguero @ 2.10 with Paddy Power

@Mindfulness, @Pep004, @MaliMisko12, @betcatalog, @sajtion, @godofhorses, @Tiffy, @waynecoyne, @The Sexless Innkeeper, @Magic0024, @malabgd, @Duke_Tm, @dogmeister, @Arkadi Manucharov, @derbent, @fat, @allyhibs, @6avin24, @discipline, @the bastardian, @Bronxie, @Bett@KikoCy, @teddybear3011, @markus808, @allthethings, @Kenton Schweppes, @vasilli07, @Dylan Lynch, @neilovan, @JKos, @zemo91, @jamiedavies02, @kulikTS, @mrclubbie, @Judeksi, and @AndreBR, what are you guys looking to bet on over these coming games?

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Watford FC v West Bromwich

Watford FC: Gerard Deulofeu (4/1 f), Jerome Sinclair (3/0 f), Tom Cleverley (23/1 m), Craig Cathcart (1/0 d), Nathaniel Chalobah (5/0 m), Younes Kaboul (2/0 d), Molla Wague (6/1 d), Tommie Hoban (0/0 d), Christian Kabasele (24/2 d)

West Bromwich: Daniel Sturridge (3/0 f), James Morrison (4/1 m), Nacer Chadli (3/1 m)

 

Liverpool FC v Newcastle Utd

Liverpool FC: James Milner (23/0 m, doubtful), Ben Woodburn (0/0 m, illness), Georgino Wijnaldum (24/1 m, illness), Nathaniel Clyne (0/0 d)

Newcastle Utd: Jonjo Shelvey (21/0 m), Islam Slimani (0/0 f), Jesús Gámez (2/0 d)

 

Daily updated injuries and suspensions information from more then 100 football leagues and competitions worldwide at: www.injuriesandsuspensions.com

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Damn, really thought Man City match was on friday (today), I would've pummeled hard city -1. Well what's done is done i guess, missed it :D

On to saturday:

Burnley - Everton - Everton really let me down last week with the 1 goal approach. I hate that type of football, let's close the game and hope to score a goal - oops, backfired, get the attackers in try and get a goal before FT!!. Anyway, Burnley don't concede a lot of goals, especially at home. I just don't think Eve is in the right mindset at the moment to win the game. As odds indicate the logical play would be under 2.5 goals, but at this price i see no value. So I'd try small bet on home team win @2.5 which is good enough.

Leicester - Bournemouth - Man on man, Foxes are hard to play this year, they show up play an awesome match or play like a 3rd league team. This is a no bet for me as I can't lean towards a winner, i'd say draw is a likely option.

Southampton - Stoke - Probably same as above match, both teams inconsistent, slowly slipping down the table. Stoke in hard need of points, but cant see it here. Probable home team win, again no bet for me.

Swansea - West Ham - Reeeally liking Swansea here, especially the way they're priced. I've seen major improvements on their end over the last few games. That aside, they're fighting for a spot in PL next year and are in a need of points. Unlinke Stoke above I actually see them winning here. West Ham not showing great form over last 5 matches, 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses. Swansea beat Liverpool and Arsenal over last 5 games. Managed to somehow lose to Brighton 4:1 which was a bit of a shocker for me. Anomaly I imagine. So, home team bet here at 2.6 is a steal in my opinion.

Spurs - Hudders - No bet. Spurs will likely cover the spread but why risk it.

Watford - Brom - Man that injury list at Watford is concerning me. Like how they play, might snatch up a home bet @2.14 small stakes even though there's massive injury list.

Last, but not least Liverpool vs Newcastle. Liverpool are flying right now, terrific form, but not much else to bet here. The way Benitez plays these type's of opponents is he closes a game in hopes of getting a draw/counter. I don't think he'll be able to do that vs fast liverpool side and therefore while i don't trust them to cover the -2 spread (call me paranoid) I do think Salah will score, at least once. So why not give a go with Salah scoring 2 or more @3.60.

Best of luck,

J

 

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3 hours ago, newjack said:

Damn, really thought Man City match was on friday (today), I would've pummeled hard city -1. Well what's done is done i guess, missed it :D

On to saturday:

Burnley - Everton - Everton really let me down last week with the 1 goal approach. I hate that type of football, let's close the game and hope to score a goal - oops, backfired, get the attackers in try and get a goal before FT!!. Anyway, Burnley don't concede a lot of goals, especially at home. I just don't think Eve is in the right mindset at the moment to win the game. As odds indicate the logical play would be under 2.5 goals, but at this price i see no value. So I'd try small bet on home team win @2.5 which is good enough.

Leicester - Bournemouth - Man on man, Foxes are hard to play this year, they show up play an awesome match or play like a 3rd league team. This is a no bet for me as I can't lean towards a winner, i'd say draw is a likely option.

Southampton - Stoke - Probably same as above match, both teams inconsistent, slowly slipping down the table. Stoke in hard need of points, but cant see it here. Probable home team win, again no bet for me.

Swansea - West Ham - Reeeally liking Swansea here, especially the way they're priced. I've seen major improvements on their end over the last few games. That aside, they're fighting for a spot in PL next year and are in a need of points. Unlinke Stoke above I actually see them winning here. West Ham not showing great form over last 5 matches, 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses. Swansea beat Liverpool and Arsenal over last 5 games. Managed to somehow lose to Brighton 4:1 which was a bit of a shocker for me. Anomaly I imagine. So, home team bet here at 2.6 is a steal in my opinion.

Spurs - Hudders - No bet. Spurs will likely cover the spread but why risk it.

Watford - Brom - Man that injury list at Watford is concerning me. Like how they play, might snatch up a home bet @2.14 small stakes even though there's massive injury list.

Last, but not least Liverpool vs Newcastle. Liverpool are flying right now, terrific form, but not much else to bet here. The way Benitez plays these type's of opponents is he closes a game in hopes of getting a draw/counter. I don't think he'll be able to do that vs fast liverpool side and therefore while i don't trust them to cover the -2 spread (call me paranoid) I do think Salah will score, at least once. So why not give a go with Salah scoring 2 or more @3.60.

Best of luck,

J

 

@newjack Totally with you on Swansea and Watford. :ok Don't forget to put the bookmakers where the odds are from, then others can follow you in a click. ;) Great post by the way. 

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Football Facts and Streaks regarding Premier League

Tottenham have been undefeated in their last 10 matches in Premier League.
Liverpool are undefeated in their last 16 home games in Premier League.
Tottenham have scored in each of their last 16 matches in Premier League.
38% of Tottenham's conceded goals occurred after the 75th minute in Premier League.
Huddersfield conceded at least 1 goal in each of their last 11 away matches in Premier League.

You can find interesting 85 Football Betting Streaks for 03.03.2018 on this link ... http://eurofootballrumours.com/football-facts-streaks-03-03-2018-8661

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Liverpool vs Newcastle

I am often reluctant to get involved in betting when Liverpool play teams far lower than them in the table but I felt it was time to stop dodging them and face the music. The Reds are undefeated at Anfield this season in the Premier League with 8 wins and 6 draws. However, if you look at the teams that have taken points off them at home then you'll see there is a trend. Burnley, Manchester United, Chelsea, Everton, West Brom, and Tottenham have all taken a point at Anfield. Basically, Jurgen Klopp still fails to have an answer against teams that come to Anfield and aim to kill a game. That is exactly what Newcastle are going to do.

In terms of league position, the two teams are separated by some distance. Liverpool are in 3rd place and just 2 points behind local rivals and second placed Manchester United. Newcastle are languishing in 15th place and are just 2 points above the dreaded relegation zone.

Klopp's team are on a fine run of form with just 1 defeat in their last 19 league matches. However, on the six occasions where they dropped points during that run, it occurred at home four times. Rafa Benitez and his side are seeing a slight improvement in their own form. Just 1 loss in their last 8 league matches has made them a tough team to beat. That solitary defeat was also away against an in-form Manchester City.

Newcastle are going to try and grind this game down. Their recent 1-0 win over Manchester United showed they can choke the life out of a game when needed. Can they survive the attacking onslaught from Liverpool? I'm not totally sure they can but I really can't see them getting thrashed and Liverpool are awful value for the win given their habit of being unable to break down counter attacking sides at home.

Total Goals Scored Under 2.5 @ 2.95 with Unibet

Newcastle AH +2 @ 1.93 with BetVictor

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I watched the Arsenal game against Man City Thursday, and Arsenal were not that bad. You really need to put it into context ... City are fantastic !  The multiple ways they attack will make most opponents look bad. Down the left, or right, or through the middle. They have quality all over the park, with unreal pace and skill. The also have a manager who knows what he is doing !

Arsenal have a good squad. A new manager, with a couple of key investments in the next window and they could be good. Obviously Wenger has to go ! There are plenty of decent managers available. Simeone, Tuchel, Naggelsman. In my opinion, Simeone would be brilliant for Arsenal because he would bring the defensive organisation of Athletico to Arsenal. That's what they need. Henry is too green for such a big job, especially with a crucial transfer window coming. It is not like Zidane at Real Madrid, who inherited a world class squad assembled by Mourinho.

The problem for them is that they have no confidence. Two 3-0 beatings by City in a week will also not help. 10 points out of the CL spots cannot be caught up. City, United and Liverpool are over the horizon, and both of Chelsea and Spurs will not slip up.

They are going to switch 100% focus to winning the Europa league.  With Athletic Madrid they the top two seeds. I think they cruise past AC Milan, especially in the home leg.

Europa league round of 16

Lazio v Dynamo Kiev

RB Leipzig v Zenit St Petersburg

Atletico Madrid v Lokomotiv Moscow

CSKA Moscow v Lyon

Marseille v Athletic Bilbao

Sporting Lisbon v Viktoria Plzen

Borussia Dortmund v Red Bull Salzburg

AC Milan v Arsenal

I think Arsenal will be flat against Brighton. A little tired after two games in a short period. Crappy weather will not brighten the mood either. Then add a terrible away record to the equation, and couple that with a highly motivated home side. Both the Brighton win and the home Double chance look really good here.

 

Edited by neilovan

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Southampton-Stoke City X2(Double chance 2.14 bet365) or high risk,little stake 2(5.75)

I decided to play on a win or draw guest, because such a home coefficient is too low. They are pretty similar, though even Southampton has a much better game, while the ending and realization is quite bad. On the other hand, Stoke City is waiting for them from the counter attack and there I see Shaqiri and Moting's really good realiziation, Stoke's defense works quite solidly with the arrival of a new trainer, Zoum and Martians India work very well while the Butland goalkeeper at a very high level (not including autogol)

Good luck

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Leicester vs Bournemouth draw @ 3.70 with Betsafe seems like a value bet, correct line should be something like 2.50 2.86 4.00 imho. There shouldn't be such a wide gap between the clubs as the odds may imply. 

Swansea vs West Ham, Swansea's last 3 home games have been wins (Liverpool, Arsenal, Burnley) West Ham has lost their last 3 away games. Swansea @ 2.65 with Betsafe seems to be a good bet. Also both teams to score @ 2.08 with Betsafe seems value, it should happen more often than not.

 

Edited by markus808

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Manchester City vs Chelsea

The big game this weekend should be bigger but, unfortunately, Manchester City only need 5 more wins to seal the title and Chelsea have once against failed to deliver any half decent defence of their title. It is almost a dead rubber but it's still a clash of two of the best tactical managers in the club game right now so should be an interesting match-up.

City spent last week destroying Arsenal in both cup and league action. It further emphasised how far Pep Guardiola's side have come but also how much Arsene Wenger's side has fallen behind. It was a stark warning to a Chelsea side that has an inconsistent record against the top six this season. Unless they turn up switched on then it could be a second defeat to City this season for Antonio Conte's side.

The last time these two teams met it was the magic of Kevin De Bruyne that split the teams. It could be argued that De Bruyne is not as hot as he was back then but he's still a potential game winner. The Blues must do better than the 3 defeats from their last 4 league games form suggests. Anything other than 100% effort and performance levels will result in a loss.

I think Conte will ensure his Chelsea side make this very difficult for City. Even though Chelsea have won some, drawn some, and lost some against the top teams this season, they are never easy to break down. City might well win this but it will be a single moment of genius that is likely to separate these sides. Can Chelsea prevail victorious? There's a chance but it's a remote one. Sadly, I can see this being another anti-climactic bore fest.

Total Goals Scored Under 2.5 @ 2.25 with William Hill

Chelsea AH +1 @ 1.94 with Unibet

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    • 30 Free Roulette Chips £0
      New UK&IRE Customers only. Free chips over 3 days at 10 per day. Each set of 10 chips will expire at 23:59 GMT & can only be played on eligible games. X1 wagering requirements on winnings. SMS verification required.
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      Min deposit £10. x45 wagering, Roulette and blackjack 50% weighting. Bonus Valid 7 days. No using Moneybookers/Skrill or Neteller as a payment method.
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      New UK&IRE customers only. Deposits made with e-wallets are not valid. Bonus wagering x35 on eligible games. Max winnings from bonus £500. Spins available after bonus is redeemed/lost. 10 per day with no wagering.
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      New UK&IRE Players only. Min buy-in £20. Bonus wagering 35x on eligible games. Spins available day after bonus is lost/redeemed, 10 per day for 10 days, no wagering.
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