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Europa League Predictions > Feb 22nd


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Here are the odds and ratings for the Europa League last 32 second leg matches coming up this week. Give us any thoughts or tips you have in mind for these games! :ok

@delfino, @KikoCy, @giraldi, @Icongene, @dogmeister, @rangers234, @Pipoca, @Notorious, @ElPrincipito007, @KingSoccertips, @vasilli07, @betcatalog, @immortal--, @DW_United, @discipline, @WinningAdvice, @arvee, @silverfox, @FrenchEskimo, @liamcorrigan86, @ElPrincipito007, @Neubs, @TOTTI3, @Simeon Borisof, @Charon84, @Magic0024, @Xcout, @arsenalfh, @BJO, and @CloughandTaylor, what do you think for these games then guys?

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Zenit St Petersburg vs Celtic

I got done by Celtic last week. I was adamant that Zenit would steal a win or at least get the draw. It was not to be. It has changed my perspective of this tie completely. Everything I thought I knew has now been thrown to the four winds. Ideally, I would have liked to have skipped making a prediction on this but as only one of two British clubs left in the Europa League, I really had no choice.

Roberto Mancini's side have it all to do. He under-achieved with Manchester City in Europe and I fear he simply hasn't learnt his lessons. He did reach the semi-final of this competition with Lazio in the 2002/03 season but failed to get past the last 16 with strong Manchester City and Inter Milan squads.

Brendan Rodgers has hinted that the Bhoys would be naive to sit back and defend in the Krestovsky Stadium for 90 minutes. It only takes a single error at the back for Celtic to turn the tie and game plan on its head. The responsibility to attack is with Zenit. Celtic will undoubtedly sit back and wait to counter attack. This could mean we are set up for an intriguing game of chess-like tactics here.

I am unsure who to back to win. It only takes one mistake or a solitary moment of genius to win a game like this. Zenit have shown their defence is far from the strongest but they will fancy their chances at home. The only issue is that they didn't get the away goal which adds further pressure on their back-line. Celtic only need the 1 goal to force Zenit to score 3 goals to win. Time and time again we see the away side do enough to qualify in these games. I think Celtic might well do it.

BTTS @ 2.00 with Betfair

Celtic AH +1 @ 1.80 with Stan James

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LYON AND VILAAREAL MEET IN REMATCH AFTER THE FIRST FINISHED LOGICALLY 3: 1 HOWEVER, WHAT ARE THE CONCLUSIONS OF THE FIGHT IN FRANCE? FIRST, LYON  SHOWED THAT THEY WERE EXTREMELY OUT OF FORM AND ONLY THE FACT THAT THEY ARE 100% OBLIGED TO REACH THE  FINAL HELPED THEM, ITS THE ULTIMATUM THAT MADE THE DIFFERENCE. THEY ARE WINLESS IN 4 SINGLE MATCHES IN THE CHAMPIONSHIP, THEY MOVED TO THE 4TH POSITION, BUT RECENTLY LYON SHOWED THAT THEY ARE BECOMING MORE OF A TOURNAMENT TEAM WITH EVERY YEAR.FOR EXAMPLE, DESPITE THE POOR RESULTS IN THE CHAMPIONSHIP, THEY CONTINUED FOR THE FRENCH CUP AND SHOWED GOOD FOOTBALL AGAINST VILLAREAL.

THE YELLOW SUBMARINE PLAYED FANTASTICALLY THE FIRST HALF WHICH ENDED 0-0, BUT VILLAREAL LOST THEIR BEST PLAYERS LIKE SORIANO, BACCAMBU, SOLDADO AND ANOTHER KEY PLAYERS WERE INJURED SO THEY RECEIVED TWO FAST GOALS. LYON RECEIVED A GOAL WHICH SHOWED THEIR WEAK FORM BUT LUCKILY THE MATCH ENDED 3-1 IN THE END.


ANALYZING THE MATCH, WE CAN MAKE A REFERENCE TO LYON-ROMA THE LAST YEAR, WHICH DEVELOPED IN THE ABSOLUTELY SAME WAY. 4-2 IN LYON, TWO GOALS AS AN ASSET AND AFTER THAT 2-1 IN ITALY. LYON HAD THE LUCK TO SCORE GOAL AND NOT TO BE ELIMINATED, I BELIEVE THEY IMPROVED A LOT SINCE THE MATCH WITH ROMA AND THE MATCH LAST WEEK.


TOP PREDICITON: GOAL / GOL - 1.61, OVER 2.5 - 1.61


ALTERNATIVE FORECAST: GOL / GOAL + OVER 2.5

CS RESULTS: 2: 1, 1: 2

NABIL FEKIR ANY TIME - 3.00

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Villarreal CF v Lyon

Villarreal CF: Andrés Fernández (2/0 g), Rúben Semedo (4/0 d), Bruno (0/0 m), Martínez (3/0 f), Sansone (9/3 f)

Lyon: Marçal (17/0 d, suspended)

 

Arsenal v Östersunds FK

Arsenal: Mesut Özil (22/4 m, illness), Aaron Ramsey (18/6 m, 2nd top scorer), Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (2/1 f, cup-tied), Alexandre Lacazette (26/9 f, top scorer), Santi Cazorla (0/0 m)

Östersunds FK: no absences

 

SC Braga v Olympique Marseille

SC Braga: Fransérgio (12/0 m), Ricardo Ferreira (7/0 d), João Carlos Teixeira (14/0 m), Danilo Barbosa (20/3 m), Dyego Sousa (11/5 f), Marafona (0/0 g)

Olympique Marseille: Sertic (4/0 m), Rocchia (0/0 d), Mitroglou (12/3 f), Mandanda (24/0 first goalkeeper)

 

Atlético Madrid v FC København

(Atlético Madrid coach Diego Simeone will probably make some changes in his squad.)

Atlético Madrid: Stefan Savić (18/0 d), Lucas Hernández (17/0 d)

FC København: Robin Olsen (21/0 first goalkeeper), Erik Johansson (5/0 d), Nicolai Boilesen (16/1 d), Federico Santander (10/3 f), Aboubakar Keita (0/0 m)

 

Daily updated injuries and suspensions information from more then 100 football leagues and competitions worldwide at: www.injuriesandsuspensions.com

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According to the match in Russia, take for granted this.

 

1.Zenit has won 90% of their last 20-25 Europe League home games.

2.Russia is not the best place to visit.

3.Zenit won all their home matches in the group with the same team they have now.

4.In Scotland they played below their maximum.Kokorin stayed quiet but he can explode at every time, especially home.Its hard to predict Zenit to win or Over 1.5 goals, because they can do the same with Utrecht, but I will definitely go with Zenith.Scotland teams are not something scary, especially on away.

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In today's match, I do not see much change in the first match, I expect to be again a closed match with few goals and phases, the two teams will be very cautious, because a goal can change the balance, I will go again with the few goals
DYNAMO KIEV vs AEK ATHEN @@ +2.50 Under, odds 1.58

So, as things have come, I do not give Napoli much hope and I have the feeling that it has a mind in the league, it has to score three goals, so it will open and Leipzig will find places and I will trust it
RB LEIPZIG vs SSC NAPOLI @@ RB LEIPZIG, odds 1.89

I think everything has been judged, I do not think the experienced Lyon will lose the qualification, Villarreal is forced to go ahead and score, if he wants to qualify, I expect an open match with goals on either side again
CF VILLARREAL vs OLYMPIQUE LYONNAIS @@ Both team to score, odds 1.57

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My 10 cents about Zenit - Celtic

I bet on BTTS in the first leg and lost. I knew very well about Zenit's vulnerabilities at the back and didn't have illusions about us keeping a clean sheet, but was sure that classy attacking players that we have would be able to score an important away goal. Didn't happen.

Now I want to draw parallels with the EL preliminary round in which Zenit played last summer. The opposition was Utrecht, and I fully expected us at least not to lose the first leg in Holland, but we did, 0-1. Then in the reverse fixture at home, Zenit played very cautiosly knowing that conceding a goal could ruin the chances to progress. So it ended 1-0 after 90 min. In the extra time Zenit totally dominated, scored the second goal, and won 2-0. I think that against Celtic we're going to see something similar. I expect Zenit to start carefully, preventing Celtic from scoring in the first place, and relying on the quality of our attacking players (Kokorin, Driussi, Rigoni) to create something. Such a gameplan might very well work, after all Zenit is very strong at the new Krestovsky stadium with the support of 50+ thousand crowd (sold out already by Wednesday) and the quality the team has. I think the chances of seeing a low scoring game are high, won't be surprised to see 1-0 after the regular time. Under 2.5 goals and Zenit to win to nil are my expectations but I'm not going to bet on this game at all because just one moment, one lapse of concentration of the hosts' defense allowing Celtic to score would change the game completely.

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Football Facts and Streaks regarding UEFA Europa League

Athletic Bilbao have scored at least 2 goals in their last 3 games in UEFA Europa League.
There have been over 2.5 goals scored in Braga's last 3 games in UEFA Europa League.
AEK Athens have drawn their last 6 games in UEFA Europa League.
Salzburg are undefeated in their last 12 games in UEFA Europa League.
Spartak Moscow have failed to win their last 9 games in UEFA Europa League.
Athletic Bilbao have won their last 4 games in UEFA Europa League.

You can find interesting 57 Football Betting Streaks for 22.02.2018 on this link ... http://eurofootballrumours.com/football-facts-streaks-22-02-2018-8302

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Villarreal CF vs Lyon

22.02.2018 18:00 GMT

Prediction: Over 4.5 Cards

Price:20/21 (1.95)

Villarreal received at home 3.09 average cards. Lyon received away 2.70 average cards. The referee is Luca Banti which shown average 4.75 cards. The first match ended - 3:1 so both team have chances to qualyfy for next round

The line Over 4.5 cards is amazing for bet, IMO the real one should be Over 6.00 cards

 

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Arsenal vs Ostersunds FK

Last week I submitted to the Arsenal bandwagon when I suspected there was a chance it might be a game they would bottle it. I'm fortunate that I went with that decision. The result ended up never being in doubt. I have a feeling this will be exactly the same. Unless Ostersunds FK pull off the performance of a lifetime then it could get messy.

Arsene Wenger's side won 3-0 in the away leg. I can foresee a similar score-line here. I'm not entirely sure the Gunners will field a strong team with the Carabao Cup Final on Sunday. I still think even a back-up side should make light work of this game. I'd even back the Gunners to keep a clean sheet.

Arsenal winning by a 2-3 goal margin seems reasonable and I think the odds being offered are quite tempting. Even a back-up Arsenal side will have some quality players looking to impress in an effort to gate crash the cup final squad on Sunday. This could be a painful away trip for the Swedish side.

Arsenal -2 @ 3.00 with Ladbrokes

Total Goals Over 3.5 @ 2.20 with Betfair

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Dynamo Kiev vs AEK Athens FC

2018, February 22, 19:00 hrs (CET Time)

Europa League - Knockout

Dynamo Kiev
The team obtained a good result in the visit to Greece, an option that gives them the advantage for the start of this match, since the need is on the side of AEK Athens, which requires at least one goal, which allows Dynamo to take advantage of counterattacking and be able to take advantage of the likely open spaces in the defense to achieve a goal that gives them more tranquility.

At home the team has 16 unbeaten games, and counting only Europa League home matches has 10 games without losing, we have to go back to February 2014 to find a defeat at home, against Valencia.

The first leg of the Europa League was their first match, after the winter break, then in the local tournament, won again at home, which motivates them for this match. Viktor Tsygankov, who has scored in both matches, will be key for this match.

AEK Athens FC
The result of the first leg was not expected, the team had five consecutive victories in the home league and  Dynamo took the lead, and AEK had to come back to get the equalizer in the minute '80.

Important absences presented by the team, without Petros Mantalos and Jakob Johansson injured, while Ognjen Vranjes and Marko Livaja suspended. Especially the lack of Vranjes will be felt, after he scored a trio of goals in the weekend league game, considering it is a central defense, an important defensive defense as offensive absence.

It should be considered that the team has a run of 6 games without losing at away in Europa League, but four times they have been tied at zero, which in this game is not enough. They also have 24 games without losing, but in this game that streak is at risk.

Prediction
Forsee a disputed match that sounds complicated, but I think the home team will achieve a good result to move forward, because the need is on the other side, and the good performance at home Dynamo Kiev, will the the key factors for them in this match.

Dynamo Kiev -0.25 AH with 8 units @ 1.73 at 188Bet

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3 hours ago, fine margins said:

Interesting- 

The last three seasons, games in the first leg of the final 32 that saw both teams score and over 3.5, saw the home team win in the second leg, except once.

That is 10 out of 11 games. Significantly, the one that lets this down came from a draw in the first leg (there were only 3 draws).

This suggests that teams who see a lot of goals in the first leg benefit from being home in the second leg - they learn how to score against you and then take advantage at home to dig in and ensure the win. 

What is MOST significant about this stat is that those 10 home wins saw every team go on to qualify on aggregate.

They gain momentum and understanding of the opposite team in the first leg (through the sheer number of goals on both sides) to power through to qualification at home.

EDIT - I might add, the one out of 11 who upset a perfect stat went on to win by a goal.

BTTS and U 2.5 returns three such opposing results, only one goal in it, and no draws, which suggests both teams going for it and not happy to settle on a draw.

This oddity does not go on to apply to last 16, Quarter finals, etc. 

I'm wondering whether travelling fans might not be so enthusiastic to pay for flights for the last 32 and does a lack of support come into this?

 

:welcome to PL @fine margins  :ok 

I love stats too, I think sometimes they are easily dismissed. However, I'd say it's a very small sample size to be playing on the flip side of the coin too. ;) 

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Victoria Plzen vs Partizan Belgrade
2018, February 22, 7:00 PM (CET Time)
Europa League - Knockout

Victoria Plzen
Achieve a good result thanks to the goal that tied the first leg in Belgrade, the team had one of the most "simple" groups, against Be'er Sheva, FCSB and Lugano, won all three games at home without major complications. The FCSB is a rival of care,  they beat Lazio in their elimination round first leg, which gives more importance to the victory won by Victoria Plzen in the group stage.

Additionally in the Czech league they have won the eight games they have played at home, only allowing two goals in those games. This will be the first competition match to play at home this year after the winter break. In the last 13 home games has scored an average of at least 2 goals, so the offensive power has it.


Partizan Belgrade
Having drawn in the first leg, you have the need to make a goal at least in this game, so it will test the local defense. In their local league the team has struggled to achieve a bit of consistency, is 9 points behind arch-rival Red Star Blegado, who is leader of the League.

Partizan has not managed to win in any of the three visiting games he had in the group stage of this edition of the Europa League, although he only lost one of those games, but it is too difficult for them to create scoring chances\.


Prediction
The great form of local Victoria, together with the goal at away, makes it look much better than the away team, although we should not rule them out, but the offensive power that has the Victoria Plzen if necessary is the key that decant this game to the local.

Victoria Plzen with 7 units @ 1.75 with Interwetten

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Dynamo Kiev v AEK Athens

Short preview: I am staying on Ukrainian train, picking the best team from Kiev this time. Weather conditions will be tough for Greeks, who are coming from 15+ on -5 degrees, and if anyone then Greeks aren't used to play at low temperatures. Dynamo won 12 times and played draw 3 times in last 15 matches. Stats, which are only showing how good they are on their NSC Olimpiyskiy stadium. The first match in Greece ended with the 1-1 draw and several incidents before the match. AEK is coming without suspended Vranješ and Livaja, which means that we'll probably see a January signing Shojaei and Ukrainian defender Chygrynskiy in the first eleven. Talking about records, I have to mention the 24-matches unbeaten run by AEK as well, but still, I think that quality, which is in my opinion pretty much on side of Dynamo, decide the match. Dynamo will most likely start carefully, very disciplined as they have an away goal advantage, but they have enough of offensive strength to score when AEK will need to step up, and attack. I see this match finishing with the low scoring win of the home side. Therefore I suggest taking odds around 2,00 on the home side. I think that possible rustiness, due to big winter break in Ukraine can make some damage, but as I said yesterday, those teams are tempting their winter preparations for European matches, and I don't believe that they will be out of form.

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On 22/2/2018 at 7:13 AM, Xcout said:

Victoria Plzen vs Partizan Belgrade

Victoria Plzen with 7 units @ 1.75 with Interwetten

Result:

Victoria Plzen 2 - 0 Partizan Belgrade

+5.25 units

Victoria Plzen continues with his good home form and claims a victory to proceed to next stage.

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