February 19 - February 25

[ogii55]

Ellis - Soeda 3.53

 

I don't like to follow up on a winning bet, but here there is a sense. Ellis continues to demolish his opponents with his serve. He did it yesterday against Ito. Soeda is 33 and probably he will never reach again his Top 50. In the last year he was beaten by the likes of Ellis here and there. He had big problems in beating the first round. Now against Ellis it will be another tough challenge. Everything over 3.00 in this match is a value.

[ogii55]

ITF Rancho Santa Fe

Lorraine Guillermo - Ann Li 3.75 Bet 365

Guillermo is well known for stunning big names. She beat one of the most promissing young players Kayla Day 6:3, 7:6 and before that in the Q also stunned two more favorites. Now she will face Ann Li, 17-years old talent, who is doing pretty well here. Li beat very easy Chirico, who is not in her best shape. Ann Li is 2:0 in H2H vs Guillermo, but both matches were in three sets, but still the odds are pretty tempting.

[CzechPunter]

Meh, Sock was injured. Nothing for me today, the two matches that I wanted to bet on had strange odds movements overnight.

[ogii55]

1 hour ago, CzechPunter said:

Meh, Sock was injured. Nothing for me today, the two matches that I wanted to bet on had strange odds movements overnight.

What were those matches? Same for me for Osaka. Her odds jumped to around 3.3 before the match. I expected to went below three, but so far she has her chances.

[ogii55]

Considering Sock, I just watch the stats at the morning and saw that he have more DF than aces. That tells the whole story. Hope he recovers for the big tournaments next month.

[CzechPunter]

Yep, he even needed a medical timeout as far as I know. I was thinking about Vekic to beat Bonaventure and Zhang to beat Cepelova. The odds for Zhang went crazy for some reason and I'm not too crazy about Vekic - after all, I still have the pre-season bet on her, so I can just cheer without risking more.

[ogii55]

Bonaventure is playing like never before. She is beating all the gravity laws. Cepelova is improving in every match so far. I bet against Zhang yesterday, she started pretty slowly with many mistaces, but then she started to play well.

[CzechPunter]

Crazy good from Bonaventure indeed, glad I skipped!

[ogii55]

Krajnovic - Pouille 3.06 Pinnacle

Krajnovic is one of the best indoor players around. He is showing improvement of the form after the injury. I was very close today to bet on him vs Simon and I am very sorry to not do it. Pouille, on the same time, was pretty close to lose from Herbert, he was down 3:6 and 0:3 in the tiebreak of the second set, but showed mentality. Last week he was beaten by Rublev.

[ogii55]

Puetz - Thompson 2.55 Pinnacle

I am not sure what Puetz is doing on such a low level tournaments. He is 30 and specially on indoor is very classy. In his last match he destroyed Kamke. The dude is in great shape. Same for Thompson, but he has a pretty long journey. It will be his 12th match in 11 days. Not sure if he is capable to handle that.

[ogii55]

Kasatkina - Muguruza 3.36 Pinnacle

Kasatkina already took three valuable scalps, Agnieshka, Konta and Vesnina. She is improving with each match. Against Agnieshka, she has big problems with her first serve. Muguruza's first match here against Bellis was pretty close. She beat Garcia more on mental level (beat her previous week as well). Both met earlyer last season and Muguriza won with a tiebreak in the third, where Kasatkina missed a matchball. Still Muguruza is a favorite here, but not with such big odds for Kasatkina. Maybe 2.75 would be more reasonable.

[CzechPunter]

Huh, Ellis is the man this week!

Fabio Fognini to beat Aljaz Bedene at 2.00 with Bet365

At 2.00, I have to have a play here, as I think that Fognini will find a way. Better player, massive H2H, seems to care. The 8-0 between the two says a lot imo. I respect Bedene's form, but I wouldn't have Fognini above 1.72 here.

[ogii55]

The good run continues this week. Here are two props from Rancho Santa Fe

Doi - Vickery 3.35 Bet 365

The last time Doi won two matches in a row n such a convincing fashion was many months ago. She is pretty good tennis player and maybe this will be the tournament, where she could be back. Earlier this month Vickery suffered an injury. Her season so far is not so nice. I expect for her to have real difficulties here. She beat two rounds, but against very weak opponents. Now she will meet someone who is showing good tennis. I wouldn't give more than 2.50 to Doi for this match.

Muhammad - Duval 2.13 Pinnacle

 

Duval made an impressive run last season. Her biggest problem are the injuries. So far this season she is 4:3, which is not so nice. In the first round Duval overcame Vania King, but was overplayed during the match, according the stats. It's not so nice showing for Duval. Muhammad is flying now after strong last week. She is heading for another final with two wins over very game rivals. I fancy Asia here as the favorite.

 

 

[ogii55]

Did you watch her after winning AO two years ago? She played in Doha and lost in two sets in the very first round. She's got the consistency problem.

I am thinking to try the final for Kasatkina. She already twice returned in matches after saving match points. Svitolina sometimes is capable to anger herself. This could harm her a lot. The problem is that the Ukraininan has killer instincts in the finals with amazing record in tournaments. Also she will be fresher physically and mentally. On the other hand it's clear that Pliskova and Kerber weren't at their best. While Konta and Muguruza played pretty well in the first two sets, before the missed match points destroyed their game.

Maybe odds around 4 has some value. What do you think?

 

 

[CzechPunter]

Well, yeah, but nobody seems to have 4.00 on offer. Also, Kerber has consistency problems? She's 19-3 for the season guys, only Halep has a better record as far as I know.

[ogii55]

Metkic/Peya vs Verdasco Marrero 2.25 Paddy

BOth teams met last week. Ver/Marr won by extremly close 10:8 in the third (54:54 points for the entire match). Now Verdasco will play a tough match earlier the same evening against Fognini. Metkic and Peya are on fire. They beat the finalists from last week. I think Met/Pey must be slight favorites here. 2.25 is pretty nice, as well.

 

 

[CzechPunter]

Karen Khachanov (+2.5) to beat Tomas Berdych at 1.77 with Marathonbet

I am a bit afraid that Khachanov is going to choke given that he's up against a big name, but, quality-wise, he has what it takes to beat Berdych, who could've easily lost in the previous two rounds. Maybe he's still feeling the illness from last week, but he's yet to play a good match in Marseille, while Khachanov is 6-0 in sets against very decent opposition. Last year, Khachanov beat an out-of-sorts Berdych in the French Open - and this could be similar.

[ogii55]

Three more for today:

 

Sanchez - Bouzkova 3.85 Pinnacle (Missed earlier odds, that were around 4.2)

They met last year and Bouzkova won in a tough 3-setter. Was pretty close match. Sanchez is coming from one of the best performances in her life, reaching a final. She was tired the next week, but now she must be fresher. Bouzkova was forced to quit during her match in the semis in the same tournament. Not sure how well she recovered from that injury.

Ozaki - Di Lorenzo 2.20 Pinnacle

Both players are far away from their best shape. Ozaki's loses are from Wang and Niculescu and she is a former Top 100 player. While Di Lorenzo was beaten in her last match by 827th player in the world. 

 

Jarry - Shwarzman 3.8 Pinnacle

Jarry is making the tournament of his life. This is a good chance for him to catch off guard the big favorites. Jarry is serving pretty well and it will not be so easy for Schwarzman to broke his every even serve game. Diego is not at his best. Those odds are pretty big for the current state of both players

[ogii55]

Yamasaki - Banes 6.50 Lads from Yokohama Q

Yamasaki is former numer 11 among juniors. He has some nice wins over Kachanov and such guys as junior. The dude is capable of hiting surprise wins. He was very strong in his first match. Banes is one to watch, but was lucky to pass the first round against an outsider. He won in three sets with two tiebreaks. Great odds for the home boy. Not to much time before the match.

[ogii55]

Sacamoto - Clezar 5.02 Betonline

Sacamoto beat 2 experienced opponents on clay - Robredo and De la Nava. He was pretty game against in form Andrey Martin, when he lost 4:6, 4:6. Clezar wasn't so convincing in the first round of Q against the guy, who is miles away from his class. The season didn't start well for Clezar, as he is 2:4 and this also could cause problems.

Verdasco - Schwarzman 2.35 Pinnacle

Hats down to Verdasco. The dude has very storng week. He demolished Thiem and Fognini and also won the doubles title despite he and Marrero being down 5:7 and 1:4 (later 2:5 in the decider). He is playing his best tennis. The results of Schwarzman showed that he is beating pretty easy.his opponents, but those matches could go in other direction.

Muhammad - Nara 3.25 Bet 365

Muhammad is pretty storng this week. She just beat Vickery and the most important thing is that she came back in the third set from 2:4. Nara got the chance to start strong her third round in the semifinals against Ann Li, who missed a lot of BP at the beginning. I would not give more than 2.50 to Muhammad.

 

Dart - Muchova 2.34 Pinnacle

Dart gave just two games when they met last year on grass. Now the British player once again is peaking with her form. She started from the Q and in the semi finals smacked down Paquet, who eliminated some good players in the event. Muchova has a rest day in the semifinals, but sometimes this could have a negative impact. Probably she watched the way Dart destroyed her French opponent. This season Muchova was beaten by Sebov and Lao. Her best results are on clay, while Dart prefers hard courts. This is the bet of the day for me.