BOB PATRICK

SECRET SPEED FIGURES

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Hi, I am a 64 year old man who has recently taken up betting again after a 20 year gap. I only bet on horses, although I do like to play poker for small stakes. When I used to bet I took it very seriously and spent hours of my life studying form books and statistics. I read everything I could, like martin Pipes biography, William Hill's biography, Alex Bird's biography, etc. I've no intention to be that serious again, but my interest has been rekindled by my 28 year old son who loves a bet. I just want to join in and talk to fellow punters. At one point I could pick winners that no one else would have dreamed of, I'm not saying I can do that now, I am slowly re-learning,  Thank you.

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I used to find winners , sometimes at massive prices by, the use of speed figures, sometimes secret speed figures. By secret, I mean hidden in the horses past, sometimes years ago. I have been browsing some other racing forums and read some right rubbish. Some people think speed figs are only of use in flat racing sprints. Absolute rubbish. Speed figures work especially well over long distances both flat and jumps. In sprints, it is very hard to recover from a bad start, or, a bad draw, although likewise in jumps the speed figure means nothing if the horse falls or is brought down, or if the going and distance are wrong. Just because a horse ran a super time in the past , it might not feel like doing it today, or the connections might not want the horse to do it today, it might not produce a top figure for 2 years, and indeed sometimes they never do it again. And it can be hard work doing the research, looking back through 2 or more years of past form and deciding if today is the day. It can be draining. I used to buy all the form books like raceform, and Directory of Racehorses etc. Its easier now. You can look up a horses entire career on Racing Post website. I'm not saying it is easy to come to the right conclusion, just EASIER. In Martin Pipes biography, (for example) he admits they would would run horses over wrong distances and wrong going  for 2 years or more, so the weight  went down and/or the price was massive. In general you wouldn't fancy a horse if its last 6 runs read UFPPP, but sometimes they are just the ones you need to investigate.I remember some 25 or 30 years ago when I first cottoned on to this. me and my colleague found a horse called STUNNING STUFF. MY PAL SAID  LOOK LAST 2 FIGS PP, 2 P'S FORGET IT! next day we watched it win easily at 33-1! Talk about gutted! Current speed figs are valid too, you got to weigh one up against the other. I am currently re-reading ALEX BIRD'S (the late legendary punter) who became a multi-millionaire and race horse owner. One of the horses he owned he put 2 stone of lead weights in its saddle when training it so any observers would think it was always struggling....and so on. If anyone is interested in the above post please join in.....and as it all comes back to me I'll see if I can find the odd good priced winner for us. 

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Oh, and there are secret draws as well, that are never revealed or perhaps known only to a few. There was a massive advantage to horses drawn in low stall numbers over 1m 4f at Newmarket (sorry, can't remember if it was July course or Rowley course now (do the 2 courses still exist? I am that out of touch). Look up draws on internet and they tell you nothing (or lies). You got to sit down with a pen and paper (or a spreadsheet nowadays) and tediously go through years of results. It was very hard work, but so so rewarding. I got 2 very good winners yesterday at Newcastle, but only had pennies on them as I have a very small sample of results for now. Cheers!

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Hi and welcome BOB, I do use speed ratings in selecting my bets and I use them for all codes as I do feel they help in establishing the type of race that will be run, I also use pace prediction as well to gauge how the race will be run, for example establishing front runners etc, then the speed ratings come into effect better as you can try and predict the way the race may be run.

Any help you may require or can assisst with much appreciated just ask.

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Thank you Bubbles, how very good of you to offer advice. That was one thing I never did learn or delve into,figuring how the race would be run. It's over 20 years since I bet seriously and it will be great to share knowledge with each other. I look forward to it.

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On ‎2‎/‎9‎/‎2018 at 5:50 AM, BOB PATRICK said:

Speed figures work especially well over long distances both flat and jumps. In sprints, it is very hard to recover from a bad start, or, a bad draw, although likewise in jumps the speed figure means nothing if the horse falls or is brought down, or if the going and distance are wrong

I agree - but this is part of racing and can happen whichever way you pick your bets.

I use my own speed figures to narrow down the field - ignoring those who have slow figures.

If this cuts the horses of interest to 3 or 4 then I will look closer at these.

If there are 5 or 6 then ( unless it's a big field ) I'll probably ignore the race.

I decided to restrict myself to the flat and races up to one mile because computing the figures for every race would take up too much time.

It's easy enough during the winter on the a/w but during the summer with 5 or 6 meetings a day it can be very time consuming.

Welcome to the forum, and good luck

 

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I could not reply to any one or anything because my user name was wrong or something. Suddenly it lets me back in. So that is why you have not heard from me. My latest part-success was LET EM IN the other day, 2nd 33-1 (got 50's). It was on all weather, at Wolverhampton. My latest failure was FREE WORLD  over jumps in a 4 runner race,( Backed from 14-1 to 15-2) tried to make all, but at 14 years old he was past it. Now I can join in the forum again, I'll let you all know when I find another and the reasons why.

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Although Speed figs are a major criteria , I also look for patterns and all sorts of other stuff, like times of year  a horse performed well etc etc

just to let you know my last big winner was MAQUISARD 3.35 HUNTINGDON 26TH OF MARCH 2018 W33-1 Only by a neck but that will do. I lost my voice cheering it home. it was not speed  figures  that got it but VAN DER WHEIL. i tried to search for the guy on here who answered my VDW  question (partly) but can't find it, sorry. unless i get any serious and proper comments on here about this result you will never hear from me again. Please don't make comments like an idiot on here that my paragraphs are not correct and such like.  give me valid comments and I'll give you some more winners like this from time to time.. 

yes i could be just making it up, but why the hell would i ever bother? Search Racing Post and see why.

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Hi Bob,interesting topic about speed figures.I have used speed ratings for many years but only in terms of using race times to either firm up an opinion or otherwise,not actually ratings as such but simply the actual race times.Simple these days to find a race time at the bottom of the results in the Racing Post.

I find the race times most useful if the bet I am considering is run on the same track as the time I am looking at,rarely do times travel well e.g comparing times at one course with another.Unless you are looking at courses which are similar in configuration,ground conditions etc.Where i do find times particularly helpful is when a horse runs to within a close proximity of its times,consistently under similar conditions.This helps to confirm that the horse is probably well within itself and vice versa if it suddenly dips below a certain level without good reason .eg slightly hampered,mistake at an obstacle it could point to a physical problem.

Most obviously these days on the AW tracks the times have a particular significance as they are more consistent in terms of conditions.However even on these tracks the time factor should always be approached with a degree of caution due to the way they are prepared e.g Harrowing the surface.Like dog tracks they can be manipulated.

Not long ago I put a horse up on here as in theory the nearest thing to a certainty as possible to get based on time as the main reason,rarely if ever I have ever done this.It duly won (I think it was at Newcastle).A short time later it was up against the horse it had hammered and in theory should have won again.It did not and the form was comprehensively turned around.

Proof if ever I needed it that time is only a very small consideration even over C & D under similar conditions,it obviously has its place but has to be treated with the utmost caution?

Having said that it could be the difference between having a punt on a horse that nobody else seems to fancy because they havent considered the time element.Best wishes on your return to punting but as you probably know it is a different animal to that you left behind so slowly slowly,small steps and garner as much as you can from the Forum.

Nobody can give you the experience you obviously have nor the knowledge but the advantage you have over a complete novice is your past experience,a building block which is a massive plus.

Good luck and best wishes for the future.

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12 hours ago, BOB PATRICK said:

Although Speed figs are a major criteria , I also look for patterns and all sorts of other stuff, like times of year  a horse performed well etc etc

just to let you know my last big winner was MAQUISARD 3.35 HUNTINGDON 26TH OF MARCH 2018 W33-1 Only by a neck but that will do. I lost my voice cheering it home. it was not speed  figures  that got it but VAN DER WHEIL. i tried to search for the guy on here who answered my VDW  question (partly) but can't find it, sorry. unless i get any serious and proper comments on here about this result you will never hear from me again. Please don't make comments like an idiot on here that my paragraphs are not correct and such like.  give me valid comments and I'll give you some more winners like this from time to time.. 

yes i could be just making it up, but why the hell would i ever bother? Search Racing Post and see why.

If you can come up with 33/1 winners why not enter the Naps competition ?

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I could not reply to any one or anything because my user name was wrong or something. Suddenly it lets me back in. So that is why you have not heard from me

I reckon you have been away with your ally Glentoby who was missing in action at about the same time. :loon

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13 hours ago, Alastair said:

If you can come up with 33/1 winners why not enter the Naps competition ?

Well yes I might do. but of course everyone must realise that firstly 33-1 winners are very few and far between. To find one takes a lot of hard work and knowledge. so don't expect them very often. There might not be another one for 6 months for all I know.

What i do know though is when odds -on favs are rubbish. of course I aren't always right , no one in the world can do that. 

(Is my paragraphing OK now?)

60% of odds-on favs win over all. So over 100 races at average of  1-3  60 win so you would put (say) £100 on each. =total £10,000

 . 60 win giving a return of £133 each time RETURN £7980 , USELESS.!

But 3 out of 10 win at average 5-1 well for 10.000 RETURN =18000 

That's excellent! never be afraid of 1-20 favs or worse, they are rare i know, (although when betting tax was abolished they became common for a while)

Peter O' Sullivan  IN HIS BIOGRAPHY Calling the horses talks about a super rich acquaintance who had £18000 on a 1-18 back in 1938. WILLIAM Hill  snapped his hand off. WE ARE TALKING ABOUT MASSIVE MONEY HERE! it lost. Just like recently a 1-20 lost at Ludlow (nose bleed). Just think of how much money the bookmakers will win when these horses get beat... accumulators rich folk etc. 

Surely I'll get a reply from this

 

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I would dispute your figures for odds on favourites. I agree with the strike rate of 60% but the average SP is closer to 4/6 so the losses are minimal, c 3.6% at SP.

The losses for 33/1 + are 57%.

I know which end of the market I would look at.

In reality a bet can be value at 1/5 as much as a 33/1 shot, it all depends on what we believe are the true odds.

 

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On 12/04/2018 at 11:39 PM, MCLARKE said:

I would dispute your figures for odds on favourites. I agree with the strike rate of 60% but the average SP is closer to 4/6 so the losses are minimal, c 3.6% at SP.

The losses for 33/1 + are 57%.

I know which end of the market I would look at.

In reality a bet can be value at 1/5 as much as a 33/1 shot, it all depends on what we believe are the true odds.

 

Well, yes I appreciate what you have to say. I would never bet every 33-1 just like I would never bet every odds on fav.  Finding the true odds, is of course exactly the right answer. A punter has to find where the bookies have got it wrong. I've no disagreement there whatever.

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