You make the call - POCKET ACES Parts 1 and 2!

[Jezza]

All right.... Two real hands I have played on cash tables, one from a couple of nights ago, one that sticks in my mind from a year ago. Both times I am holding AA....would like your opinions here. Hand 1 Absolute poker 1/2 NL - 400 max sit down (yep double buy ins on AP!) ------- I have AA and raise a fair bit in mid position, called by someone who limped UTG originally with about 150 on the back and called by the button who has around 200, I have them both covered. FLOP : J J 5 rainbow. Hmmm not the greatest I think, decent chance someone has a jack. UTG bets out a tiny amount - I think he would check with a jack here but I still dont want to get too involved so I just call. Button then flat calls as well. Turn : 9 It's a total blank really, but then any card apart from an A is going to be (a 10 or Q or K might make someone a full house but if they were playing J10 QJ or KJ they are beating me anyway obviously). Again UTG bets out a minute amount (2 dollars into about a 50 pot) and again I just flat call, I really fear I am beaten by the button but such a small bet is too much to pass up - the button flat calls along with me again. River : Q Well that changes just about nothing.....UTG checks, I check and the Button bets 40 into the 60 pot. Your move? Hand 2: VC Poker 2/4 NL : 300 sit down - I have about 400 infront of me as does the villian. I pick up AA UTG and make it 20 to go from the off (standard raise on these tables). I'm flat called by the villian who has a lot in front of him. He's shown himself to be an ok player, probably does well for himself but from his chat I think he has too high an opinion of himself and does not realise when he was to blame for losing a hand. Moderately tight player so his range of hands are limited. Flop : A J 10 rainbow Now this is not a bad flop by any means - top set!. I dont have the nuts by any means but I can easily house up, I dont want to give a free card here (A K or Q coming off would be disgusting) and I think checking would make my hand obvious anyway, so I bet 50 (around pot size). Villian insta moves all in for 400. Your call? Results later after your opinions. Jez

[georgej]

Re: You make the call - POCKET ACES Parts 1 and 2! Move 1 - check Move 2 - All in I'm a total newbie so if you're playing on the 23rd... be gentle

[Jezza]

Re: You make the call - POCKET ACES Parts 1 and 2! George in hand 1 the decision is basically whether or not to call the 40 bet or fold (you could cehck-raise I suppose but...) In the actual hand I did check and the guy bet 40...the question is what to do now (UTG folded I forgot to put that in the hand...it came back to me and me only) Jez No worries about the 23rd mate btw....its always a good game

[georgej]

Re: You make the call - POCKET ACES Parts 1 and 2! call him on the 40 Did you clean em both out?

[Oskar]

Re: You make the call - POCKET ACES Parts 1 and 2! As I havent learnt when to fold pocket Aces yet I would probably end up calling the 40 in situation one as I cant put him on a J, although KJ is a posibility. Im hoping for AQ; he aint putting you on a J either and is betting to see if you'll pay him off with AK (you did a decent raise in mid position). Im calling the 40 but am probably distraught when he shows KJ (sooooted) Situation 2, can you really put him on KQ? Two pair maybe or a smaller set, either way I aint folding top set, all my money is in there. These are cash games though and Im way inexperienced in them, hence the assumption that both times the villan had some form of decent starting hand, playing ABC poker. Im probably miles out

[GaF]

Re: You make the call - POCKET ACES Parts 1 and 2! Ok - I'm trying to do this "properly" - but don't do that much, so correction of any cr@p I speak would be appreciated.... Hand 1 - I presume that a flush isn't in the equation at all. Pot odds - you have to put 40 in to win 100 - so you are being offered odds of 5/2 Cards that beat you - any J, KT, 99, QQ, 55 - 47 cards out there - no J =45/47 * 44/46 = 92% - so chance that one player has at least one J is 8% - KT = 4/47 * 4/46 = 0.7% chance that one player holds KT - 99 = 3/47 * 2/46 = 0.3% chance that one player holds 99 - QQ = 3/47 * 2/46 = 0.3% chance that one player holds QQ - 55 = 3/47 * 2/46 = 0.3% chance that one player holds 55 - AA (to split pot) = 2/47 * 1/46 = 0.1% These stats assume that we accept you have UTG beat and are only playing against the Button. Purely statistically, that leaves a 10% chance that he has you beat - so your odds of winning are 1/10. It looks a great bet!! Of course that is purely statistical - we know that he has called everything (including your initial big raise) and put a big bid in on the river - so he was dealt a big hand. It could be QQ, but is (statistically) more likely KK or AK - which doesn't help him - he wasn't challenged to show any strength after the flop - so we don't know whether the flop helped or not. He is on the button, so has seen presumed weakness from both you and your opponent after the river - I think there is every chance he has KK - and therefore you have him beat. So my answer is CALL. This is my first attempt at a clinical analysis like this - so criticism of my thought gratefully accepted..... I'll look at hand 2 later when I have a few mins...... Ok - Correction to the stats above (as there are 45 unknown cards - not 47) Cards that beat you - any J, KT, 99, QQ, 55 - 47 cards out there - no J =43/45 * 42/44 = 91% - so chance that one player has at least one J is 9% - KT = 4/45 * 4/44 = 0.8% chance that one player holds KT - 99 = 3/45 * 2/44 = 0.3% chance that one player holds 99 - QQ = 3/45 * 2/44 = 0.3% chance that one player holds QQ - 55 = 3/45 * 2/44 = 0.3% chance that one player holds 55 - AA (to split pot) = 2/45 * 1/44 = 0.1% It doesn't change things that greatly - chance he has you beat is about 10.5% instead of 10% stated above. Please check my maths - it really wouldn't surprise me if there are other (more serious) errors in my calculations.

[cains]

Re: You make the call - POCKET ACES Parts 1 and 2! How much do you know of the man on the button in play1 ?? He is last to act.. And could have an J, played slowly all the way.. If he has JX or 55, he can play this as slow as i want, couse now flush or straight draws.. (at least not until river) 60$ pot and 40$ raise.. Thats a good raise from his side imo.. Your getting 2,5/1 if im not wrong here.. (im at work, and 30degrees, so not sure my brain got this right). He could also have KK or TT, but like you he cant throw his hand away with those low raises. If i was you i would have raised 15-20$ after flop or turn.. That way you either win the pot, or you know if there is a J... I think i would call it.. ( we all love those rockets :ok ) Play2... hmmm tough one... As you say his tight. And you therefor expect premium hands, and after 20$ pre flop raise i would think he had AK, AQ, AJ, AT, KQs and thats problably it... So he could have hit his straight.. But with rainbow flop, and he got the nuts.. Why move all in now.. Why not just call after thinking for a short while, and take the bet on turn, after you have betted another 50-100$.. I say he is on AJ or AT, and because of the flop, and you pre flop raise, he expect you to have either a K or Q.. and there for he wants to make sure you dont draw for the straight to cheaply... So ALL-IN :nana

[Oskar]

Re: You make the call - POCKET ACES Parts 1 and 2! I just realised KK didnt even cross my mind in the first hand, I think I have a tendency to only put my opponents on hands that fit in with the flop in some way. Something to work on for me.

[Plow-King]

Re: You make the call - POCKET ACES Parts 1 and 2! Hand 1. For me a straightforward call. I will not repeat the already top notch analysis above. For what your offered for $40 Idont see the sense in folding. I would prob give him the benefit of AQ and call thinking there was a decent chance of taking the pot. If you go seriously over the top of him, you lay yourself open to getting smoked if he is beating you. And if you go over him and he has AQ surely he would realise he is beaten and fold anyway, so there isnt anything to be gained from raising.

[the tufty fan club]

Re: You make the call - POCKET ACES Parts 1 and 2! Gut instinct which has served me well in the past would be: Hand 1 - fold Hand 2 - all in But thats just me! :D

[GaF]

Re: You make the call - POCKET ACES Parts 1 and 2! Hmmm - Hand 2 - He either has 2 pair or the straight. 2 Pair and you have the lead, straight and he has the lead. I really cannot decide between them. He could have trips J or 10 as well, but I don't put him on that - I think that was too aggressive a move for a lower trip (he must have considered the possibility that you could have AA!!!). Then again - if he's worried you have K or Q, then he should make the big bet to take the pot down now...... I really can't make the decision, so with trips Aces, I think CALL. If he has the straight you have the escape of a full house, if he has 2 pair or trips, you have him beat. The chance of you getting a Full House is I think a J, T or other pair. Probability of not getting J is 44/47 * 43/46 = 87.5% - so chance of J is 12.5% Probability of not getting T is 44/47 * 43/46 = 87.5% - so chance of T is 12.5% Chance of pair 2 is 4/47 * 3/46 = 0.6% Chance of pair 2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,Q,K = 0.6% * 10 = 6% So your odds of FH are 31% - odds of AAAA are 1-(46/47*45/46) = 4% So you pretty much have 35% chance of winning regardless of what he has. You're pot odds are 350/500 = 7/5 So even if he has a straight - it's a pretty fair bet - if he hasn't, then its a great bet - so changed my Mind - It's a DEFINITE CALL Just realised that my calculations in the first exercise were wrong - there were 7 known cards, not 5 - I'll go back and adjust......

[Doddsy]

Re: You make the call - POCKET ACES Parts 1 and 2! Personally I would call hand 1 even though I would be worried but intrigued to know what he had for a small amount. Hand 2 I would fold. I know a lot of you are saying go all in and you probably would have him beat at that point but personally when I make those calls I always end up losing when the turn and river comes (sure that just happens to me). If he is a tight player as you say, I can't see him going all in with that flop unless he had the nuts or he is drawing to the nuts unless of course he's made trips himself. Would rather lose my initial bet than all my money. I am fairly new at cash games so this is also affecting my judgement for hand 2. In a tournament, no question, all in.

[GaF]

Re: You make the call - POCKET ACES Parts 1 and 2! I have to add as well - in both my answers (both call) - I've ignored the cash at stake - when we're talking $350, I'd probably fold a Royal Flush!!! I presume you're more used to palying at these stakes.....and prepared to back the odds, (almost) regardless of the cost. I'm sure I've got at least one of these wrong - I imagine you've put one call and one fold in there?

[cains]

Re: You make the call - POCKET ACES Parts 1 and 2! Doddsy and Gotafancy.. Dont look at how many $$ it is here.. Its a bit above what most of us play for.. So look at it, as points instead.. Gotafancy: if you going to fold royal flush i dont mind playing you. :lol doddsy: If he is a tight player as you say, I can't see him going all in with that flop unless he had the nuts or he is drawing to the nuts unless of course he's made trips himself. Would rather lose my initial bet than all my money. If hes drawing to the nuts, or made his trips, this is the moment for you to call if you are in this situation.. You have the best hand. So his all in is wrong and you should punish him..

[GaF]

Re: You make the call - POCKET ACES Parts 1 and 2! For the second hand, I thought (but didn't write) - we put your opponent on a decent hand and high cards - which obviously reduces your chance of a FH - but that doesn't matter because you only need the full house if he has a straight - which means he has KQ - if he has A, J or T to reduce your chances of full house, then it doesn't matter because you have him beat anyway (on 2 pair or trips). If he has Trips, then there is the risk of him beating you with 4 of a kind (quite small), but he cannot beat you with a Full House (because you would always have a higher FH) I can't wait for the answer - but I know last time it took a few days to get all the answers in :cry

[friskyfitz]

Re: You make the call - POCKET ACES Parts 1 and 2! without offering any boring info on this my calls are A)......... call 40 B)......... fold (premium hand could be K,Qs too) and a raise of 4 times the pot in a money game is too costly on that flop

[Markpl1]

Re: You make the call - POCKET ACES Parts 1 and 2! My opinion is i fold the first hand reluctantly. I think he has at least trips (one of the jack) or he has possibly hit a house with 9's or queens. The only hand i can see him making that move with that you are beating is ace queen. Not the right odds. 2nd hand i call the all in. The only hand that you are behind to is King Queen and alot would slow play it on that board (i would). So i think you have him on two pair or a lower set. Both of which you are in very good shape against.

[mrmuzeman]

Re: You make the call - POCKET ACES Parts 1 and 2! Id call the first I reckon, I think the bet is dying for a call really likely from a Jack. Although having said that I wouldnt even be suprised if K10 hung around and caught the straight with the diddy bets that there were. With such a small bet i think I would have raised a bit just to see what was going on better. With the second I think its time to bite the bullet and push it all in :lol Did he have pocket Jacks?

[laidbackbloke]

Re: You make the call - POCKET ACES Parts 1 and 2! I've actually played very similar hands to both of these situations this week. both times I called and both times they had a straight with me not improving my hand The first hand I would probably call.............. but it does feel a bit dodgy. The second is a tough decision, but I would fold.............. I've been caught out a few times by flops like that. Then again, I've only really started playing cash games so what do i know?

[heniek31]

Re: You make the call - POCKET ACES Parts 1 and 2!

Gut instinct which has served me well in the past would be: Hand 1 - fold Hand 2 - all in But thats just me! :D

Me too :ok. I folded aces few times and I was always right. There are just too many chances for beating aces in this hand. It really stinks. Second one is tough but sorry, I wouldnt pass that one. Actually I had some like that last week. On the flop AK4, guy call all in, I check he shows K4.

[mrmuzeman]

Re: You make the call - POCKET ACES Parts 1 and 2! I reckon Jez should get a 6 show tv deal from BBC (a late night programme) called "You Make the Call". He'd sit in a big leather chair infront of a computer screen with online poker going on. Hed spin round in the chair and spiel off about a poker situation like the aces question above. People would write in their answers and everything. The prize could be a heads up game vs Jez :loon

[GaF]

Re: You make the call - POCKET ACES Parts 1 and 2!

KT = 4/45 * 4/44 = 0.8% chance that one player holds KT

Is my Maths right here? Thinking about it - that's for KT in that order - for KT in any order wouldn't it be 8/45 * 4/44 ? Which gives double the chance - 1.6%? Any better statistitians out there who can confirm which is right? I'm thinking it's this one....

[Jezza]

Re: You make the call - POCKET ACES Parts 1 and 2! Well....onto the results. Hand 1 ------- I folded. So certain I was that the button was slowplaying I even typed "nh" in the chat box just as I folded. I did not have him on AJ I had him practically on pocket 5s! I realised with the small bets he might have stayed in with anything but I thought he would check at the end if this was the case or he had a small piece, only a very strong hand would liven up like that at the end. It is quite rare to fold aces but I really thought this was the time to do it. Anyway the chat box prompted him to show....and he turned over pocket 10s as he took the pot down :wall. He asked if I had AK (I can see his reasoning) but I decided to tell him the truth and admitted I had folded the winning hand. He said he had honestly thought he was winning and thought it was a value bet, not a bluff (with UTG still in here and an overcard on the river I am not so sure about this but I thought I had better repeat what he said...). Considering the hand afterwards I came to the conclusion that the massive majority of the time you see someone flat call several players like this on early streets and then liven up big style on the river they have been slowplaying and folding the aces would have been correct - however the defining factor this time was the tiny bets, nobody was really going to fold if they had anything for those bets and to sort out the slowplays he should have been put to the test a bit more. A bad read by me in this situation....I think at least one if not 2 mentioned pocket 10s so well done if you did (and you would all have won this pot that I lost just about!) Hand 2 ------- I called. The hand I was worried about of course was KQ. However hardly anyone would have played KQ like that against me in this spot. They almost certainly would have just flat called - personally if it was me with KQ there I would have raised but not moved AI. I had to consider he had 2 pair or a lower set, both of which I had crushed - I felt J10 was the most likely hand from him (and he was putting me on AK). Of course if the worst comes to the worst and he does have KQ I am behind but I still have a decent chance to outdraw him, add to this the tiny chance I think it is that he actually HAS the straight in the first place I called for all my money instantly. He turns over AJ and is drawing dead to runner runner jacks for four of a kind!. Sweet, took down an 800 dollar pot and to add to the humour he starts whining in the chat box "gee you flop two pair and that happens - always to me". Personally I would say if a tight player like me with a lot of money infront of him makes it 5 times the big blind to go UTG in a cash game you should generally fold AJ :lol. Also the very fact I led at the pot with a big bet after flopping top set (which most average players would have checked) enticed the big raise from him with the second best hand - a check from me there and livening up later might have alerted him to the strength of my hand and possibly not got him all in. Several of you read this opponent who rates himself highly correct - well done Congrats to everyone who got the reads right....These two examples illustrate to me what is the single most important thing to learn to do in no limit hold em and that is accurately put your opponent on a hand. When you can do this well you will find your results go through the roof - if you know what your opponents hold you cant lose! Jez

[mrmuzeman]

Re: You make the call - POCKET ACES Parts 1 and 2! Well I did get the reads somewhat wrong :lol but the fact is I called the first and the second so would have taken down 2 nice pots :nana

[GaF]

Re: You make the call - POCKET ACES Parts 1 and 2!

Well I did get the reads somewhat wrong :lol but the fact is I called the first and the second so would have taken down 2 nice pots :nana

lol - likewise - I feel I would have won both pots, but with the wrong reads (so in the long run would lose!!!!) ....so good news and bad news. Cheers Jezza - although my answers weren't particularly good given what the answer was (I think my answer to the second hand was better than my answer to the first) - just the process of working through it and trying to think about it is a HUGE help at my level - I'm sure my answers will improve over time and as I get more experience of poker. Thanks m8 :clap - looking forwarde to the next challenges...... ;)

[mrmuzeman]

Re: You make the call - POCKET ACES Parts 1 and 2! Not necessarily bad news though gotafancy. The instincts that both pots were worth playing hold good. We thought we were infront on the all in pot and we were correct. Getting the reads dead right could just be the icing on the cake :ok