BillyHills Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 3.35 Newbury 2m½f (2m69y) Betfair Hurdle (Handicap) (Grade 3) (Class 1) (4yo+) 1.50 Newbury 3m (3m52y) Betfair Cash Out Handicap Hurdle (Class 2) (4yo+ 0-145) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted February 8, 2018 Author Share Posted February 8, 2018 Betfair Hurdle Trends 10/10 Aged 5 or 6 10/10 Carried less than 11-2 8/10 Rated between 124 and 137 16/19 placed last time out 15/19 had not won beyond 2m1f 16/19 had not run more than 4 times that season. 3m Handicap Hurdle Trends 7/10 Ran within 45 days 7/10 Carried less than 11-4 7/10 Rated 130 or less 15/19 Aged between 6-8 11/19 Placed in first 4 last time 13/19 Had not won at the trip before. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted February 8, 2018 Author Share Posted February 8, 2018 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted February 8, 2018 Author Share Posted February 8, 2018 Betfair Hurdle 10/10 Carried less than 11-2 We lose the top 14 horses 10/10 Aged 5 or 6 We lose Poppy Kay, Knocknanuss, Waterlord, William H Bonney, Irish Roe, Coeur Blimey16/19 placed last time out We lose Nietzsche16/19 had not run more than 4 times that season. We lose Zalvados Lalor and Silver Streak left Lalor hasnt won a hurdle race (11 out of the 19 winners had won at least once over hurdles) 1pt EW Silver Streak 14/1 Hills Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted February 9, 2018 Author Share Posted February 9, 2018 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted February 9, 2018 Author Share Posted February 9, 2018 3m Handicap Hurdle Trends 15/19 Aged between 6-8 We lose Indian Stream 7/10 Ran within 45 days and carried less than 11-4 We lose Barters Hill, The Eaglehaslanded, Bastien, Talkischeap Lough Derg Farmer 7/10 Rated 130 or less Left with King Uther and Book Of Gold Both placed in first 4 last time 13/19 Had not won at the trip before. King Uther won at 3m2f, Book Of Gold not won at trip. Selection 1pt EW Book Of Gold 10/1 PP corky 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 Betfair hurdle Irish roe 99,12 Spiritofthegames 99.10 Verdana blue 99.07 Bleu et rouge 99.07 Irish roe fails on age trend but I'm prepared to forgive him as his overall form is very good ....spiritofthegames would prefer further but will,like the ground and would be an apt winner with the winter games starting ....overpriced at 25/1 Irish roe 10pts win 9/1 bet365 Spiritofthegames 10pts win 25/1 bet365 corky and Bubbles180 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 Newbury 3.35 15/15 – Carried 11-7 or less in weight14/15 – Aged 7 or younger13/15 – Placed in the top 3 last time out13/15 – Rated 130 or higher12/15 – Won between 2-4 times over hurdles in the UK/IRE before12/15 – Had raced within the last 8 weeks Application of those trends gives me a short list of 4 - Kalishnikov, Spiritofthegames, Irish Roe and Silver Streak ...... which is obviously too many ! Silver Streak can go because his wins to date have been on sharp or undulating tracks so Newbury is a different test Irish Roe can go because she's a mare and all her wins over jumps have been in single figure fields. She did win a big field bumper but that was Mares Only and it's unknown how she'll cope in a big field of geldings over obstacles. I think some mares tend to back out if they're surrounded by big males with an obstacle in front of them ......... obviously some don't but she hasn't been tested yet So I'm left with ....... Kalashnikov at 12/1 EW Spiritofthegames at 25/1 EW Bubbles180, richard-westwood, corky and 1 other 2 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 Newbury 1.50 12/13 – Had won no more than 3 times over hurdles before11/13 – Had run within the last 9 weeks10/13 – Had won over at least 2 ½ miles (hurdles) before9/13 – Aged 7 or younger9/13 – Carried 10-13 or more Only 1 horse left .......... Bastien to win at 6/1 corky 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted February 9, 2018 Author Share Posted February 9, 2018 My Ratings on the Betfair Hurdle Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WiggoBets Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 3 hours ago, Trotter said: Newbury 3.35 15/15 – Carried 11-7 or less in weight14/15 – Aged 7 or younger13/15 – Placed in the top 3 last time out13/15 – Rated 130 or higher12/15 – Won between 2-4 times over hurdles in the UK/IRE before12/15 – Had raced within the last 8 weeks Application of those trends gives me a short list of 4 - Kalishnikov, Spiritofthegames, Irish Roe and Silver Streak ...... which is obviously too many ! Silver Streak can go because his wins to date have been on sharp or undulating tracks so Newbury is a different test Irish Roe can go because she's a mare and all her wins over jumps have been in single figure fields. She did win a big field bumper but that was Mares Only and it's unknown how she'll cope in a big field of geldings over obstacles. I think some mares tend to back out if they're surrounded by big males with an obstacle in front of them ......... obviously some don't but she hasn't been tested yet So I'm left with ....... Kalashnikov at 12/1 EW Spiritofthegames at 25/1 EW My shortlist is exactly the same but I have sided with Silver Streak and Spiritofthegames at juicy odds Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WiggoBets Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 Also had a look at the National Trial at Punchestown on Sunday. 18 of last 20 winners have carried less than 11 stone and all 18 were at least 10lbs below the top weight. Also, 18 of the last 20 winners have had a lower official mark than 130. No horse has ever won this race having had its previous run over hurdles, and 15/20 previous had finished at least 6th in their previous run. The previous 7 winners have been in the top 4 in the market. 15 of the last 20 winners were aged 7,8 or 9 (although the previous two winners were 6 year olds). This gives us plenty of angles to go at, will post selections tomorrow once race is priced up BillyHills 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 (edited) Newbury 1.50 12/13 – Had won no more than 3 times over hurdles before (3,8) 11/13 – Had run within the last 9 weeks (1,2,5,6) 10/13 – Had won over at least 2 ½ miles (hurdles) before 9/13 – Aged 7 or younger (7) Bastien 1 Pt ew @ 7\1 Coral Newbury 3.35 This was a bit harder to seperate. 15/15 – Carried 11-7 or less in weight (1,2,3,4,5,6,7) 14/15 – Aged 7 or younger (8,12,15,17) 13/15 – Placed in the top 3 last time out (11,18,19,22,23) 13/15 – Rated 130 or higher (24) 12/15 – Won between 2-4 times over hurdles in the UK/IRE before (16) 12/15 – Had raced within the last 8 weeks (9,14) 12/15 – Aged either 5 or 6 years-old (20) 6/15 – Aged 5 years-old (including 6 of last 9) (13) This has left me with 2 Kalashnikov & Silver Streak Kalashnikov 1 Pt ew @ 14\1 Unibet 1-4 1/4 Silver Streak 1 Pt ew @ 18\1 WHill 1-4 1/4 Edited February 10, 2018 by Xtc12 BillyHills and richard-westwood 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 Had a look at another few races today and the following shows up: Altior to be beaten by Politologue Outsider Loves Destination @ 25\1 (only 4 runnings of this race) Drumcliff another outsider @ 16\1 Casse Tete @ 13\2 Bubbles180 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted February 10, 2018 Author Share Posted February 10, 2018 Sunday 4.20 Punchestown Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted February 10, 2018 Author Share Posted February 10, 2018 Key Trends 9/10 Carried less than 11st : Lose top 6 horses 9/10 Favourites beaten 9/10 Rated less than 140 As Above 8/10 Ran within 40 days: Lose Forever Gold, Red Devil Lads, Mick The Jiver, White Arm, Spider Web 10/19 Placed last time out We lose Woods Well, Out Sam, Teachers Pet, Cappacurry Zak 15/19 Aged 7,8 or 9 (last 2 aged 6!) Lose Without Limites, Toubaloo. Folsom Blue, Isleofhopses... 13/19 Top 4 in betting 19/20 Not won at this trip previously 1pt EW Space Cadet 14/1 bet365 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbles180 Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 Well done again guys 1st (9/1) & 3rd (25/1) Had them both along with Silver Streak richard-westwood and donal 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted February 10, 2018 Author Share Posted February 10, 2018 On 09/02/2018 at 2:48 PM, Trotter said: Kalashnikov at 12/1 EW Spiritofthegames at 25/1 EW 8 hours ago, Xtc12 said: Newbury 1.50 Bastien 1 Pt ew @ 7\1 Coral Newbury 3.35 Kalashnikov 1 Pt ew @ 14\1 Unibet 1-4 1/4 On 09/02/2018 at 12:43 PM, BillyHills said: Selection 1pt EW Book Of Gold 10/1 PP Xtc12 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WiggoBets Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 8 hours ago, BillyHills said: Key Trends 9/10 Carried less than 11st : Lose top 6 horses 9/10 Favourites beaten 9/10 Rated less than 140 As Above 8/10 Ran within 40 days: Lose Forever Gold, Red Devil Lads, Mick The Jiver, White Arm, Spider Web 10/19 Placed last time out We lose Woods Well, Out Sam, Teachers Pet, Cappacurry Zak 15/19 Aged 7,8 or 9 (last 2 aged 6!) Lose Without Limites, Toubaloo. Folsom Blue, Isleofhopses... 13/19 Top 4 in betting 19/20 Not won at this trip previously 1pt EW Space Cadet 14/1 bet365 I am going to take a chance on WITHOUT LIMITES. He fits a lot of the criteria and with the last two winners being 6 years old I am happy to have him on board. I will also have a little tickle on MICK THE JIVER at massive odds as he has a good profile, despite having dreadful form this season. Others on my shortlist are White arm, Teachers Pet and your selection Space Cadet but I will stick with just the two I mentioned. Good luck BillyHills 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbles180 Posted February 11, 2018 Share Posted February 11, 2018 I'm on Space Cadet and Without Limits Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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