thegreatdom

Six Nations 2018

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Good evening, 

 

Just wondered if any one had any views regarding the upcoming 6 nations? 

I think there’s value to be had with Scotland and France this year. England are rightful favourites but don’t instill confidence in me against some more settled sides in the tournament. 

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I've gone early on England -15.5 v Italy at 5/6 with 888. Surprised to see such a low line for that game.

You can get evens for -17 and 10/11 for -16 but I'll take the lower line at a slightly shorter price.

I decided to come up with my own handicap lines for all the games, as I did last year, by starting with a gut feel number before considering any external sources and then refining it. I went for a line of 28 on this game which wasn't far from the Rugby Vision rating of 26.

So far, on the other 2 opening round games, there's no more than a point or two between my "guess", the ratings and the handicap lines.

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For tomorrow, I've posted the following in my "Daily Spread" thread:

"France v Ireland: Buy France hotshots for 1 point at 15 with SX (Vakatawa, Lamerat, Thomas, Palis)

5 points higher elsewhere, the truth lies somewhere in the middle for me."

Nice low risk bet with 4 players on your side and a single try yielding a 10 point profit. I also think that Thomas is a reasonable anytime tryscorer bet at 4/1 with BF Sportsbook.

PP doing money back on losing "whatodds" bets to a tenner so you might as well back one that catches your eye for an interest.

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Thomas try made for a big swing on my bets yesterday; 4/1 winner and 10 points profit on buy of France hotshots. But for that it would have been a wipeout. I'll take a bit of good fortune now and again.

Italy v England today and I'm already on the England -15.5 handicap bet posted above. At least I've got the value as the line has risen a fair bit.

Lads offering 16/1 a red card feels a bit too big even though I wouldn't say I exactly fancy one in this game. At the 19/1 I've been able to boost it to it's definitely worth a few quid. I've also bought Parisse try minutes at 7 with SX. Tipped by the RP at 11/2, a buy at 7 slightly edges that and, with a cagey start anticipated, the prospects for any try coming a bit later on seems reasonable. Also, he's as high as 11 to buy elsewhere.

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