speed New System Based on Speed Ratings

[Bubbles180]

Hi guys have been running a system based on speed ratings, not just on one rating but on several ratings, have been looking at how horses run their races based on course, class, ground and distance then looking at their times/speed rating for these and then putting them in an algorythm and looking for the best runner in the race based on these speed ratings and finding which horse is ths fastest in the race, normally I get 1/3 selections a day, prices do vary but usually are low. for exampl the last 3 selections have been

14/01/18    12.40    Kelso    Coole Hall   1.44    Win
15/01/18    13.10    Ayr    Grand Morning    5.00    Win
16/01/18    13.25    Here    Carole's Vigilante   1.44    Win

My stirke rate at present for 2018 is 75%

ROI is 115%

Avg odds are 3.00

Will post from today to see how it runs

[Bubbles180]

Today 2 runners

13.10    Ling    City Gent 2/1
15.20    Ling    Spare Parts 9/4

[BillyHills]

Good luck mate, interesting

[Bubbles180]

13.10    Ling    City Gent 2/1 4th 
15.20    Ling    Spare Parts 9/4 Won

[Bubbles180]

12.50    South    Sunshineandbubbles 2/1
13.50    South    Axe Cap 2/1 
14.20    South    Aleef 9/2

[Bubbles180]

oh well as usual start a topic and boom all lose, hey ho on to tomorrow

12.50    South    Sunshineandbubbles 2/1 Lost
13.50    South    Axe Cap 2/1 Lost
14.20    South    Aleef 9/2 Lost

Edited January 19, 2018 by Bubbles180

[Snert]

 

I'm a convert to speed ratings and don't back a horse without good ratings - but which speed ratings do you use ? - are they any good?  There are a lot of ratings out there.

I compute my own speed ratings but only for the flat and up to about a mile.

I will follow your thread with interest

 

 

[Bubbles180]

Hi Snert, yes their are many ratings and I use a number of them but I input various ratings from various sources based on Run Style, LTO rating, Best Rating Course  and Distance Rating, and an Avg Rating of all races then search for the best rating in the field, this is why I only do 1 course per day, wil try and extend it when the racig gets later to do more courses.

I also use Par ratings to establish the quality of the rating for the horse selected, using pars form previous races and the course.

 

[Bubbles180]

4 for today

12.40    Muss    Alizee De Janeiro   5.50
13.15    Muss    Attention Please   3.25
13.45    Muss    Simone   2.50
16.00    Muss    I'm To Blame 6/4 (this is a NHF race but this horse posted an exceptional time when last seen, Could be my Bumper horse for Cheltenham)

Edited January 19, 2018 by Bubbles180

[Bubbles180]

Had some time to look at the other meetings and have come up with a few more that look good today gonna trial them and see what happens

14.10    Chep    Ramses De Teillee   2.38
15.40    Ling    Native Appeal    1.50
18.45    Newc    Nomorecalls    3.00
19.45    Newc    Chingachgook     4.50

You may notice Maiden races here as Im a strong candidate for basing Maidens on previuos runnings using their speed ratings for those races as to me they indicate the horses quality, you can also use this theory when they run in Handicaps for the first time basing their overall speed rating compared to those who have already run in handicaps, it can give you an idea of the horses quality and possible ability, a good example of this is SPARE PARTS as all of his speed raatings for the past 5 races have been much higher than his opponents.

[Bubbles180]

12.40    Muss    Alizee De Janeiro   5.50 Lost
13.15    Muss    Attention Please   3.25 Lost
13.45    Muss    Simone   2.50 Lost
16.00    Muss    I'm To Blame 6/4 Won

14.10    Chep    Ramses De Teillee   2.38 Won
15.40    Ling    Native Appeal    1.50 Lost
18.45    Newc    Nomorecalls    3.00 Lost
19.45    Newc    Chingachgook     4.50 Lost

8 Selections

2 wins

P&L -3.12

Total

13 Selections

3 wins

P&L -4.87

[Bubbles180]

Todays Selections

13.25    Ling    Betsalottie        6.00
13.40    Hayd    Vocaliser        2.10
14.00    Ling    Kareem Albaari        4.00
14.50    Hayd    Captains Buck        2.10
15.00    Ascot    Minella Daddy        12.00
15.25    Hayd    Brianstorm        2.20
15.40    Ling    Morning Has Broken        2.88
19.45    Chelm    Titan Goddess        2.50
20.15    Chelm    Spare Parts        2.38
20.45    Chelm    Authentic Art        2.20

 

[Bubbles180]

13.25    Ling    Betsalottie        6.00 Lost
13.40    Hayd    Vocaliser        2.10 Won
14.00    Ling    Kareem Albaari        4.00 Lost
14.50    Hayd    Captains Buck        2.10 Lost
15.00    Ascot    Minella Daddy        12.00 Lost
15.25    Hayd    Brianstorm        2.20 Won
15.40    Ling    Morning Has Broken        2.88 Won
19.45    Chelm    Titan Goddess        2.50 Lost
20.15    Chelm    Spare Parts        2.38 Lost
20.45    Chelm    Authentic Art        2.20 Lost

9 Bets

3 wins

P&L -2.82

Overall

Bets 22

Wins 6

P&L -7.69

[Bubbles180]

13.10 Font Lisp 1/3

15.10 Font Melrose Boy 1/4

16.10 Font The Flying Sofa 8/11

Just the 3 today but bad prices may have a small treble

[Bubbles180]

3 bets 

2 wins

P&L -0.42

Running

25 Bets

8 wins

-8.11 P&L

 

[Bubbles180]

Today

13.00    Leic    Don Des Fosses
13.30    Leic    Optimus Prime

Edited January 23, 2018 by Bubbles180