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UFC / MMA Predictions 1st Quarter of 2018


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UFC/MMA Predictions (1st Jan - 31st March 2018)

I'll be posting all my predictions in here for the 1st quarter of 2018 for UFC will occasionally include other MMA Promotions but mainly UFC events I'll try to post up predictions for all UFC events. Predictions will usually won't be put up till a day or 2 before the fights as often then odds for anything but the headliners aren't posted until fight week and these preliminary fight contend a lot of the value in my opinion. 

I'd like to see a few other members send in their tips too . As some of you may have seen I posted up on a event by event basis from about July last year and ended up with a flat stakes profit of 26.02 units from exactly 100 bets so a ROI of 26% is pretty healthy so hopefully we can continue this moving into 2018. 

Also I will endeavour to stick to my gut of only picking fights with value , the only exception I will make is I will always pick a winner of the Main Event of any UFC Event I post up. I'll report back on the result of this when we get to the end of the quarter. 

Good Luck everyone. 

Edited by Danshot
spelling correction
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So lets kick this off tonight with the 1st UFC Card of the Year , now unfortunately 2 of my favourite fights on this card are now scrapped but this still has a lot of good talent and some good match ups with an intriguing main event.

UFC Fight 124 St.Louis , Missouri on 14th January

Headliner (Dooho Choi vs Jeremy Stephens)

Jeremy Stephens to Beat Dooho Choi -  6/4 (Unibet)

Fight to End Within the Distance - 4/9 (Bet365)

Main Card (3am GMT)

Page Van Zant to Beat Jessica Rose-Clark - 10/11 (Coral)

Kamaru Usman vs Emil Weber Meek to End Within The Distance - 10/11 (Betfred)

Prelims (1am GMT)

James Krause to Beat Alex White - 4/6 (Betway & Bet Victor)

Guido Cannetti to Beat Kyung Ho Kang - 13/5 (Coral)

Irena Aldana to Beat Talita Bernado - 10/17 (Bet365)

Fight Pass Prelims (11.30pm GMT)

Danielle Taylor to Beat J.J Aldrich - 11/10 (Betway)

Jessica Eye to Beat Kalindra Faria - 10/11 (Betfred)

Wild Card Bet 

Matt Frevola to Submit Marco Polo Reyes - 8/1 (Betfair) 

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Fight Night 124 St.Louis Summary

W5 - L5 , For a lose of -0.89 units. 

So pretty much a break even night , as you will see I decided to add in a wild card bet this will usually be a longer odds bet and therefore less like to come in but if we get a couple right in the quarter will produce good returns. 

So we managed to nail the headliner and was happy with the way Stephens looked coming into the cage he had a determination and I honestly believe that he actually wins this more often then Choi despite his underdog price. 

As for our losing bets I backed both PVZ and Taylor based on their movement but unfortunately neither could get any kinda of momentum going indeed PVZ broke her arm going for a spinning back fist during the 2nd so couldn't throw any right hands in the 2nd half the fight , and Aldrich size was just too much for Taylor to overcome with many strikes falling short. 

Cannetti looked good as an underdog dominating the 1st round until he made a mistake and got submitted , that said we got a lucky break with Jessica Eye getting a split decision in a fight that really could of gone either way. 

The only lose that really I feel we could of left alone is the Usman vs Meek fight to end in a finish , I didn't take Usman despite expecting him to win as price was too short , but I thought he might start to finish after winning his last fight by 1st round KO following 4 decisions but he went back to just grinding out wrestling and not looking for the finish with either a submission which I felt there were plenty of opportunities my guess is he respected Meek's power and didn't want to take any chances. 

Big fight weekend up next with UFC 220 going up against Bellator 182 on Saturday Night , predictions later in week.

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UFC 220 in Boston , Massachusetts on 20th January

Headliner (Miocic vs Ngannou)

Stipe Miocic to Beat Francis Ngannou -  31/20 (Coral)

Fight to End Within the Distance - 1/9 (Betfair)

Main Card (3am GMT)

Daniel Cormier to Beat Volkan Oezdemir - 5/16 (Coral)

Daniel Cormier to Win via Submission - 2/1 (Sky Bet)

Calvin Kattar to Beat Shane Burgos - 7/4 (Betfred) 

Calvin Katter to Win by Points - 11/4 (Sky Bet) 

Gian Villante to Beat Francimar Barroso - 7/10 (Bet Stars) 

Thomas Almeida to Beat Rob Font - 10/11 (Bets Stars & William Hill)

Prelims (1am GMT)

Kyle Bochniak to Beat Brandon Davis - 6/5 (Betfred)

Dustin Ortiz to Beat Alexandre Pantoja - 23/20 (Coral)

Fight Pass Prelims (12am GMT)

Enrique Barzola to Beat Matt Bessette - 4/9 (Betfred)

Islam Makhachev to Beat Gleison Tibau - 2/5 (Sky Bet)

Wild Card Bet 

Islam Makhachev to Win by Submission - 12/1 ( Betfair)

Edited by Danshot
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Sorry last minute but here goes ....

UFC on Fox 27 in Charlotte , North Carolina on 20th January

Headliner (Jacare vs Brunson)

Derek Brunson to Beat Jacare Souza - 11/10 (WIlliam Hill)

Over 1.5 Rounds - 8/11 (Bet365)

Main Card (1am GMT)

Vin Pichel to Beat Joaquim Silva - Evens (Bet365)

Drew Dober to Beat Frank Camacho - 10/17 (Bet365)

 Dennis Bermudez to Beat Andre Fili - 2/3 (Coral)

Prelims (10pm GMT)

Justine Kish to Beat Ji Yeon Kim - 8/15 (Bet365) 

Katlyn Chookagiain to Beat Mara Borella - 8/13 (Coral)

Bobby Green vs Erik Koch to Go The Distance - 5/6 (Sky Bet)




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  • 2 weeks later...

UFC 221 in Perth , Australia  on 10th February 

Headliner (Romero vs Rockhold)

Luke Rockhold to Beat Yoel Romero : 6/10 (Betstars)

Main Card (3am GMT)

Pedro vs Safarov Under 2.5 Rounds : 10/21 (Coral)

Tui Tuivasa to Win in Round 1 : 19/10 (Coral)

Curtis Blaydes to Beat Mark Hunt : 8/13 (Coral)

Prelims (1am GMT)

Damian Brown to Beat Dong Hyun Kim : 6/5 (Bet365)

Jeremy Kennedy to Win by Decision : 3/1 ( Bet365) 

Jussier Formiga to Beat Ben Nguyen : 10/11 (Betfred)

Fight Pass Prelims (11.30pm GMT)

Ross Pearson to Beat Mizuro Hirota : 2/3 (Coral)

Wild Card Bet 

Jake Matthews to Win by Submission : 12/1 (Coral)

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UFC Fight 126  Austin , Texas on 18th February

Headliner (Cerrone vs Medeiros)

Medeiros to Beat Cerrone @ Evens (Sky Bet)

Main Card (2am GMT)

Northcutt to Beat Gouti @ 1/3 (Betfred)

Alves to Beat Millender @ 8/13 (Coral)

Peterson to Beat Davis @ 7/4 (Bet365)

Prelims (11pm GMT)

Moreno to Beat Burkman @ 4/11 (Sky Bet)

Piechota to Beat Williams @ 4/11 (Betway)

Ferreira to Beat Gordon @ 19/10 (William Hill)

Moras to Beat Pudilova @ 6/5 (Betfred) 

Wild Card Bet 

Moras by Stoppage @ 5/1 (Bet365)


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UFC on Fox 28 in Orlando , Florida on 24th February 

Headliner (Emmett vs Stephens)

Stephens to Beat Emmett : 2/3 (Coral) 

Main Card (1am GMT)

Perry to KO/TKO/DQ vs Griffin : 4/6 (Betfair)

Torres to Decision vs Andrade : 4/1 ( Betfair)

Prelims (9.15pm GMT)

Bermudez to Beat Morales : 8/13 (Betway)

Prachino to KO/TKO/DQ vs Alvey : 13/5 (Betfair)

Yahya to Beat Doane : 2/5 (Coral)

Moroz to Beat Hill : 6/4 (Bet365)

McMann ro Beat Reneau : 1/2 (Betfair)

Wild Card Bet 

Barao to Submit Kelleher : 5/1 (Unibet)

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  • 2 weeks later...

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