Announcements
*** New Last Man Standing Competition - Win up to £1500 Annually - See Competitions Forum ***
*** October Competition Winners: Well done to Roland Cooper (NAPS), BillyHills (KO Cup), Theodore007 (Football Tipster Competition), Bagzi (Last Man Standing Comp) & Demios (Poker) ***
BillyHills

£20 Daily Challenge - All Welcome

Recommended Posts

11 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

I ideally I would prefer a 2% risk i.e. a £1000 bank but was threatened with expulsion from the forum if I introduced further capital

Thats a lie and wont have you saying that on the forum.!

I never threatened to ban you from the forum, i said if you kept massaging your figures, like you was,  i would pull the thread in fairness to the other members as it was misleading. You personally were never threatened with 'expulsion'

Why do you need a bigger bank anyway???? if You get that low then you need to find something better to do with your money.

@The Equaliser

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, The Equaliser said:

Many thanks for your comments.  I too dislike the losing runs.  I may try to just include my highest rated selections in the future.  It will mean fewer doubles and trebles but may be worth it. 

Good reply to Rolemat by the way

 

13 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

Fair enough, I believe most punters think like you, I suspect it's a lack of understanding of statistics.

To quote Nick Mordin, "The very best measure of any system is that when you explain it to an average punter their reaction will be "That's complete rubbish""

I'm happy for people to ignore my method of betting short priced horses each way  because it will enable me to continue making a nice steady profit each month. There is no form analysis at all, I just take advantage of bookmaker's odds in certain situations.

 

I can assure you most punters would understand simple arithmetic,statistics have nothing to do with betting odds but if you cannot see that you cannot possibly win thats ok if it makes you happy,only mentioned it as it is responsible gambling week and we have been encouraged to help fellow punters.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, BillyHills said:

Thats a lie and wont have you saying that on the forum.!

I never threatened to ban you from the forum, i said if you kept massaging your figures, like you was,  i would pull the thread in fairness to the other members as it was misleading. You personally were never threatened with 'expulsion'

Why do you need a bigger bank anyway???? if You get that low then you need to find something better to do with your money.

@The Equaliser

I have replied seperately to the above issue.  If I have misinterpreted your words about having my thread pulled, I apologise

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Rolemat said:

 

I can assure you most punters would understand simple arithmetic,statistics have nothing to do with betting odds but if you cannot see that you cannot possibly win thats ok if it makes you happy,only mentioned it as it is responsible gambling week and we have been encouraged to help fellow punters.

I believe Mclarke to be a very responsible betting man.  He is honest too. I believe he uses 100's of spreadsheets to come up with his short priced selections and takes advantage of bookmakers promotional odds.  As of yesterday he was still top of this month's nap table.  Not sure that I would even try to follow his method but, just because I don't understand it fully doesn't mean that I would say it's wrong and; it definitely is not irresponsible gambling.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, The Equaliser said:

I believe Mclarke to be a very responsible betting man.  He is honest too. I believe he uses 100's of spreadsheets to come up with his short priced selections and takes advantage of bookmakers promotional odds.  As of yesterday he was still top of this month's nap table.  Not sure that I would even try to follow his method but, just because I don't understand it fully doesn't mean that I would say it's wrong and; it definitely is not irresponsible gambling.  

I did not mean he was irresponsible,simply pointing out that his betting method i.e ew on short priced horses has been proven to be a long term losing strategy and always will be,as I said,simple arithmetic.hth

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, Rolemat said:

I did not mean he was irresponsible,simply pointing out that his betting method i.e ew on short priced horses has been proven to be a long term losing strategy and always will be,as I said,simple arithmetic.hth

Well Sir,

I respecfully ask you to ask MClarke to reveal his cumulative profit/loss figures; he seemed to be doing OK the last time we spoke about them. It is dangerous to assume that a strategy is a failure just because you think it to be so. I get a lot of flack over my strategy because the winning doubles and trebles don't come through that often.  However, I have faith in it.  Sure, it could all go pear shaped and possibly I will lose my betting bank.  There is always a risk to betting.  However, the returns can be ten times more favourable than puting money into a savings account if one gets their strategy right.  I think that there are a lot of good tipsters in this forum and I respect their selections.  I wouldn't put any of them down without finding out a bit more about their strategies before declaring that they simply won't work.  I hope this helps?          

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, The Equaliser said:

Well Sir,

I respecfully ask you to ask MClarke to reveal his cumulative profit/loss figures; he seemed to be doing OK the last time we spoke about them. It is dangerous to assume that a strategy is a failure just because you think it to be so. I get a lot of flack over my strategy because the winning doubles and trebles don't come through that often.  However, I have faith in it.  Sure, it could all go pear shaped and possibly I will lose my betting bank.  There is always a risk to betting.  However, the returns can be ten times more favourable than puting money into a savings account if one gets their strategy right.  I think that there are a lot of good tipsters in this forum and I respect their selections.  I wouldn't put any of them down without finding out a bit more about their strategies before declaring that they simply won't work.  I hope this helps?          

I  think that when decades of experience and knowledge,personal and from others,both punters and bookies tells you that something is flawed,it generally is? For his strategy to have a hope of providing a profit it would require a high percentage of winners to bets ratio,which if it was the case begs the question about backing short prices ew in the first place.As soon as a horse has only placed,50% of the stake is lost,if the place is  1/4 and the price less than 4/1 a further loss and ditto 5/1 and 1/5,add the unplaced i.e 100% loss and the flaw is obvious.Was only trying to help but each to their own.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Rolemat said:

I  think that when decades of experience and knowledge,personal and from others,both punters and bookies tells you that something is flawed,it generally is? For his strategy to have a hope of providing a profit it would require a high percentage of winners to bets ratio,which if it was the case begs the question about backing short prices ew in the first place.As soon as a horse has only placed,50% of the stake is lost,if the place is  1/4 and the price less than 4/1 a further loss and ditto 5/1 and 1/5,add the unplaced i.e 100% loss and the flaw is obvious.Was only trying to help but each to their own.

Ok, I'll leave MClarke to defend his strategy.  Without full cumulative P&L figures it is difficult to to determine whether it is profitable.  I guess that because he selects short priced favourites that he does have a greater strike rate than 50%.  I appreciate that you were only trying to be helpful 😐

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

5 doubles,two trebles and 1 win bet today:

 

Doubles and trebles:

 

Selections:

A  1.15 Win Enola Gay 3/1

B  1.30 Aint the Last Day 5/2

C  2.40 aint Diomode Des Mottes 2/1 (Price slashed from 3/1 earlier)

D  4.10 Win Confirmation Bias 3/1

E  5.10 Sou Requitted 5/2

F 6.40 Sou Poeta Brasileiro 9/4

 

Doubles: At £3

                AB  £42.00

                BC  £31.50

                CD  £36.00

                DE  £45.00

                EF  £36.56

 

Trebles: at £2.50

 

(1)    CDE £112.50

(2)    ABF £113.79

 

£20 staked

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, Craig bluenose said:

Cab somebody just pick some winners on a regular basis? Don't care about the system. Lol.. 

Take a look at the overall 2019 tipster naps table that was posted up recently, there you will find some tipsters with a good recent strike rate.  Hope this helps

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 11/8/2019 at 9:39 AM, Trotter said:

God knows !

probably 'cos I've never bothered asking for it to be changed ....... :loon

You can change it yourself by going into Account Settings and change display name, its just like magic although knowing Trotter that may be a bit technical🤣

Or....... I can change it for you

**Edit Profile is where you need to go:ok

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

So unlucky with both your bets today.  I don't place any bets at venues with heavy going these days; all too unpredictable!  But well done in your attempts here and in the naps anyway

 

Thanks, my 3rd bet was Soupy Soups which also came second (at 16/1) and looked like it would win if there were a few extra yards. Just the way it goes sometimes, I'm sure it evens itself out over time so I don't get too despondent, it's good to get a bit of fun for your money.

I don't mind heavy going, I tend to back those horses that show they can perform on the going.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, BillyHills said:

You can change it yourself by going into Account Settings and change display name, its just like magic although knowing Trotter that may be a bit technical🤣

Or....... I can change it for you

Click your name where you log in and select Account Settings

 

Cheers BH ...... I just tried that but it actually changed my User Name not the 'newbie punter' bit ...........

So I changed it back ...........

go ahead and change it if you can !

I think I should be at least a Legend ......... 😂

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 11/8/2019 at 9:07 PM, The Equaliser said:

Ok, I'll leave MClarke to defend his strategy.  Without full cumulative P&L figures it is difficult to to determine whether it is profitable.  I guess that because he selects short priced favourites that he does have a greater strike rate than 50%.  I appreciate that you were only trying to be helpful 😐

 

Thanks for your comments.

Since I started betting on my new system in June there have been 435 selections of which 299 (69%) have either won or placed. My profit has been £2,400 to £60 stakes. ROI is 9%.

Rolemat states that my system has been proven to be a long term losing strategy. He does not know my system, other than the fact it is based on backing short priced horses each way.

I have a spreadsheet which calculates the chance of each horse finishing in the 1st 4 places. This is quite a complex spreadsheet as there are 36,000 scenarios in a 15 runner race.

I only back in those races where the bookies are offering 4 places instead of the standard 3 and only then when the shape of the betting and the over-round is in our favour. As an example there were 4 such races today but only 1 that provided a suitable opportunity.

Before I retired I was FD for a multi billion pound business and I now make my living by investing in shares. By my nature I am cautious and prudent so I certainly wouldn't "throw my money down the drain".

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 11/9/2019 at 8:13 AM, Craig bluenose said:

Cab somebody just pick some winners on a regular basis? Don't care about the system. Lol.. 

I thought I reacted to this previously but must have been mistaken.

What I wanted to say was that a study of the month on month nap tipsters as shown in the November update under Admin reveals a lot of tipsters who have produced good strike rates which I believe you are seeking. You may do well to study these and chose from a few to follow.  Personally, I never follow any tipsters, however, their usefulness for me is that they sometimes highlight a selection that is worth a second look.  If that horse then fits in with my own criteria only then would I consider backing it.  Hope this helps  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.