LEE-GRAYS Posted May 4, 2022 Share Posted May 4, 2022 5 hours ago, LEE-GRAYS said: 3.45 longchamp baylagan 20/1 £10 e/w bet365 placed 2nd 25/1 +£52,50 +£71,50 may +£871,50 1st oct MCLARKE and The Equaliser 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Equaliser Posted May 4, 2022 Share Posted May 4, 2022 5 hours ago, The Equaliser said: Resuming Lay bets for this comp. This is now based upon significant shortening prices from the overnight position. i.e. going against the crowd. I had to look at 28 races to find this one! B/Fwd -28.64 4.20 Km Downtown Getaway 15.15 Lay at 2.32 = 14.85 profit v £20 liability Haha the market got it right today so a £20 loss = -£20 MTD & YTD -£48.64 It will be interesting to see what happens during the month of May Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nigwilliam Posted May 5, 2022 Share Posted May 5, 2022 Ches 130 Count D'Orsay 10/1. £10 win Alligator Alley 11/2. £10 win skybet The Equaliser 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LEE-GRAYS Posted May 5, 2022 Share Posted May 5, 2022 10.50 compiegne gaelik first 20/1 £10 e/w bet365 The Equaliser 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Equaliser Posted May 5, 2022 Share Posted May 5, 2022 2.50 Hunt Malina Jamila 27.40 @ 1.73 = £26.85 profit v £20 liability. The horse was 6/4 last night and I don't see why a 16/1 shot being withdrawn should make its odds so short. I am laying this turkey Nigwilliam 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nigwilliam Posted May 5, 2022 Share Posted May 5, 2022 11 hours ago, Nigwilliam said: Ches 130 Count D'Orsay 10/1. £10 win Alligator Alley 11/2. £10 win skybet 2nd. & NR. The Equaliser 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Equaliser Posted May 5, 2022 Share Posted May 5, 2022 12 hours ago, The Equaliser said: 2.50 Hunt Malina Jamila 27.40 @ 1.73 = £26.85 profit v £20 liability. The horse was 6/4 last night and I don't see why a 16/1 shot being withdrawn should make its odds so short. I am laying this turkey It was a pity that the Skelton horse was withdrawn and that the Doc's horse blundered at the last hurdle. - 20 = MTD -40 YTD -68.64 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted May 5, 2022 Share Posted May 5, 2022 3 minutes ago, The Equaliser said: It was a pity that the Skelton horse was withdrawn and that the Doc's horse blundered at the last hurdle. - 20 = MTD -40 YTD -68.64 I'd much rather be backing odds on horses than backing against them. Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nigwilliam Posted May 6, 2022 Share Posted May 6, 2022 Ches 315 Cleveland 6/1. £12 win The Grand Visir 18/1 £4 win Reshoun 20/1 £4 win The Equaliser 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LEE-GRAYS Posted May 6, 2022 Share Posted May 6, 2022 (edited) 23 hours ago, LEE-GRAYS said: 10.50 compiegne gaelik first 20/1 £10 e/w bet365 lost +£32.50 may +£851.50 1st oct Edited May 6, 2022 by LEE-GRAYS may The Equaliser 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LEE-GRAYS Posted May 6, 2022 Share Posted May 6, 2022 (edited) 4.10 chantilly sassy rascal 20/1 £10 e/w bet365 Edited May 6, 2022 by LEE-GRAYS 4.10 The Equaliser 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Equaliser Posted May 6, 2022 Share Posted May 6, 2022 8 hours ago, MCLARKE said: I'd much rather be backing odds on horses than backing against them. I do avoid odds on selections, however, the horse in question was stated as 6/4 the previous night and that was after a 16/1 shot non-runner. I trust the 10 pm prices as a good guide to the probability of a horse's chances of success. Therefore, if the market goes mad on a selection and its price shortens significantly then I will "lay" the horse. For the comp I have to adjust the liability to £20. However, in practice, if I lay an odds on horse I adjust the profit to say £20 so that my liability is less than £20. On the other hand if the odds are evens or higher I adjust the liability to say £20 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Equaliser Posted May 6, 2022 Share Posted May 6, 2022 6.10 Nott Chimed Lay 23.26 @ 1.86 = £22.79 poss profit v £20 Liability. This horse was showing up as 13/8 last night with Franz Strauss at 15/8. The money has poured onto this one. There are at least two live contenders so worth a "lay" bet imo Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bang on Posted May 6, 2022 Share Posted May 6, 2022 (edited) 1 hour ago, The Equaliser said: I do avoid odds on selections, however, the horse in question was stated as 6/4 the previous night and that was after a 16/1 shot non-runner. I trust the 10 pm prices as a good guide to the probability of a horse's chances of success. Therefore, if the market goes mad on a selection and its price shortens significantly then I will "lay" the horse. For the comp I have to adjust the liability to £20. However, in practice, if I lay an odds on horse I adjust the profit to say £20 so that my liability is less than £20. On the other hand if the odds are evens or higher I adjust the liability to say £20 The non runner was the trainers other horse, and the horse Malina Jamila was a non runner the day before so of the 2 entries this looked best for them, as it proved. I wouldn't stop you from laying short ones but handicap 'good things' rather than non handicaps may be better. I rarely bet in maidens, as they are all trying to do something that they have never done before - Win. There can be many plots and sub plots in there. Edited May 6, 2022 by Bang on The Equaliser 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Equaliser Posted May 6, 2022 Share Posted May 6, 2022 2 minutes ago, Bang on said: The non runner was the trainers other horse, and the horse Malina Jamila was a non runner the day before so of the 2 entries this looked best for them, as it proved. I would stop you from laying short ones but handicap 'good things' rather than non handicaps may be better. I rarely bet in maidens, as they are all trying to do something that they have never done before - Win. There can be many plots and sub plots in there. Many thanks; I may well look at handicap short priced selections in the future Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted May 6, 2022 Share Posted May 6, 2022 Sky 5 places SP 5 X £2 EW Nottingham 5.35 As If By Chance 4/1 Nottingham 5.35 Rabat 4/1 Nottingham 5.35 Mostallim 11/2 Nottingham 5.35 Vape 15/2 Nottingham 5.35 Helvetian 17/2 The Equaliser and Wildgarden 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nigwilliam Posted May 6, 2022 Share Posted May 6, 2022 16 hours ago, Nigwilliam said: Ches 315 Cleveland 6/1. £12 win The Grand Visir 18/1 £4 win Reshoun 20/1 £4 win 1st. , 9th. , 10th. Returns £84 MCLARKE, LEE-GRAYS and The Equaliser 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Equaliser Posted May 6, 2022 Share Posted May 6, 2022 1 hour ago, Nigwilliam said: 1st. , 9th. , 10th. Returns £84 Ryan Moore in brilliant form MCLARKE and Nigwilliam 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Equaliser Posted May 6, 2022 Share Posted May 6, 2022 11 hours ago, The Equaliser said: 6.10 Nott Chimed Lay 23.26 @ 1.86 = £22.79 poss profit v £20 Liability. This horse was showing up as 13/8 last night with Franz Strauss at 15/8. The money has poured onto this one. There are at least two live contenders so worth a "lay" bet imo Chimed ran badly in the race. They said it ran to Freely. I saw the same comment about Pride Of Priory yesterday. Doe this mean that the horse takes off on its own and the jockey can do nothing about its running. All very confusing. At least I collected 22.79. This gives me a MTD of -17.21 & YTD OF -45.85 I will look for a handicap selection tomorrow as per @Bang on's advice. Gone are the days when we could all look for 7/2 plus favourites in many races. They are quite often much shorter than those odds these days Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nigwilliam Posted May 7, 2022 Share Posted May 7, 2022 Asc 405 One Ruler 17/2 £5 ew OO De Lally 22/1 £5 ew skybet 8pl. The Equaliser 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LEE-GRAYS Posted May 7, 2022 Share Posted May 7, 2022 On 5/6/2022 at 9:30 AM, LEE-GRAYS said: 4.10 chantilly sassy rascal 20/1 £10 e/w bet365 lost +£12.50 may +£831.50 1st oct The Equaliser 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LEE-GRAYS Posted May 7, 2022 Share Posted May 7, 2022 6.00 auteuil exupery 12/1 £10 e/w bet365 The Equaliser 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Equaliser Posted May 7, 2022 Share Posted May 7, 2022 7.50 War Oceans Red 19.61 @ 2.02 = 19.22 v £20 liability This horse was 7/4 last night. It has 3 live contenders so I will go with laying this one I had to work through a lot of races to find a handicap with such a significant shortening in price. I realise that @Bang onwould not recommend laying in non-handicaps but would like his view that if I chose some non-handicap races to consider what would he recommend? a lot of listed race hot pots seem to fail at short odds, I think Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bang on Posted May 7, 2022 Share Posted May 7, 2022 1 hour ago, The Equaliser said: 7.50 War Oceans Red 19.61 @ 2.02 = 19.22 v £20 liability This horse was 7/4 last night. It has 3 live contenders so I will go with laying this one I had to work through a lot of races to find a handicap with such a significant shortening in price. I realise that @Bang onwould not recommend laying in non-handicaps but would like his view that if I chose some non-handicap races to consider what would he recommend? a lot of listed race hot pots seem to fail at short odds, I think Another race type that I rarely bet in, I treat them similar to handicaps so go ahead. The reason IMO is, that you can get the craved for (by breeders) 'black type' in a listed race. BUT, listed races are not as hot as Group races, and sometimes a top handicapper can win. As you say, "a lot of listed hot pots seem to fail at short odds". The only advice I would give is to look closely at jockey bookings and trainers in form before deciding to lay a runner (of any race type). Maiden races are full of horses trying to do something they haven't done before - win, so could be a possible non handicap lay, but again, take a look at trainers course form, recent form, jockey bookings etc. Good luck. The Equaliser 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted May 7, 2022 Share Posted May 7, 2022 Ascto 4.05 FRESH 7/1 £10 EW SKY 8 places The Equaliser 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nigwilliam Posted May 7, 2022 Share Posted May 7, 2022 16 hours ago, Nigwilliam said: Asc 405 One Ruler 17/2 £5 ew OO De Lally 22/1 £5 ew skybet 8pl. 6th & NR. Returns £23.50 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Equaliser Posted May 7, 2022 Share Posted May 7, 2022 12 hours ago, The Equaliser said: 7.50 War Oceans Red 19.61 @ 2.02 = 19.22 v £20 liability This horse was 7/4 last night. It has 3 live contenders so I will go with laying this one I had to work through a lot of races to find a handicap with such a significant shortening in price. I realise that @Bang onwould not recommend laying in non-handicaps but would like his view that if I chose some non-handicap races to consider what would he recommend? a lot of listed race hot pots seem to fail at short odds, I think RESULTS UPDATE I didn't expect Oceans Red to run that bad. Anyway a profit of £19.22 = MTD +£2.01 and YTD - 26.63 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nigwilliam Posted May 8, 2022 Share Posted May 8, 2022 Ham 645 Bollin Joan 8/1 bet365 £10ew. 4pl. The Equaliser 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LEE-GRAYS Posted May 8, 2022 Share Posted May 8, 2022 22 hours ago, LEE-GRAYS said: 6.00 auteuil exupery 12/1 £10 e/w bet365 placed +£14 +£26.50 may +£845.50 1st oct The Equaliser 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LEE-GRAYS Posted May 8, 2022 Share Posted May 8, 2022 3.42 bordeaux le bouscat woodwind 14/1 £10 e/w bet365 The Equaliser 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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