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BillyHills

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25 minutes ago, gbettle said:

Many thanks VT,

Always appreciate your comments & observations. I've done Monte Carlo simulations before so I had better fill my boots and crunch some stats. 

I'm also thinking of breaking up the trixie, into the doubles and treble, £10 total stake each.

It's difficult to know where to go with this as it is showing regular profits. @Valiant Thor has analysed the results and made good suggestions. For the purpose of this thread the stake has to remain at £20 per day, and changing the staking won't make too much difference. The REASON that I only do the trebles are because 2/3 winners can still result in a loss with odds on selections.

It all depends upon how comfortable you are with losing runs/days. 

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6 hours ago, gbettle said:

 

event_date time course selection betfair position
2022-01-25 13:10 Down Royal Deploy The Getaway 1.74  
2022-01-25 14:50 Leicester Walk In Clover 1.57  
2022-01-25 17:00 Southwell Blue Trail 1.52  
           
           
Bet Total Outlay Total Return Total Profit    
Trixie 20.00 (4 bets of 5.00) 59.58 39.58    

 

event_date time course selection betfair position
2022-01-25 13:10 Down Royal Deploy The Getaway 1.74 1
2022-01-25 14:50 Leicester Walk In Clover 1.57 1
2022-01-25 17:00 Southwell Blue Trail 1.52 1
           
           
Bet Total Outlay Total Return Total Profit    
Trixie 20.00 (4 bets of 5.00) 59.58 39.58    
           
Month bets outlay return profit  
1 25 500 664.69 164.69  
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12 hours ago, gbettle said:

Many thanks VT,

Always appreciate your comments & observations. I've done Monte Carlo simulations before so I had better fill my boots and crunch some stats. 

I'm also thinking of breaking up the trixie, into the doubles and treble, £10 total stake each.

There is a saying that goes "if it aint broke don't fix it" I remember a week or so ago when you couldn't get data through from your usual supplier and you were putting up selections at greater odds than usual.  I don't think you got 3 winners during that period.  However, some of your followers were writing in asking whether you had changed your strategy, which suggested to me that they were possibly copying your bets.  Hence, it would be a pity if you changed direction now when you are going through a purple patch so to speak.

Interestingly the Punter Lounge Accumulator posted up each day quite often has selections with similar odds to those that you post up.  This is invariably a £20 Treble.  Perhaps @MCLARKEcan provide the results for these over the same period that you have been posting to compare a "treble" against a Trixie bet

 

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Good luck all.

event_date time course selection betfair position
2022-01-26 14:10 Catterick Get Your Own 2.06  
2022-01-26 17:00 Kempton Montesecco 2.36  
2022-01-26 19:00 Kempton Come On Girl 2.44  
           
           
Bet Total Outlay Total Return Total Profit    
Trixie 20.00 (4 bets of 5.00) 137.54 117.54    
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11 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

Interestingly the Punter Lounge Accumulator posted up each day quite often has selections with similar odds to those that you post up.  This is invariably a £20 Treble.  Perhaps @MCLARKEcan provide the results for these over the same period that you have been posting to compare a "treble" against a Trixie bet

I think it is @The Brigadierwho maintains these results.

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2.50 Winc - Dorking Lad - 2/1 Bet365 B.O.G. - WON 3/1

Trainer Gary Moore is in very good form ( 12 wins, 8 placed from 46 runners last 2 weeks). Came 2nd LTO and todays slightly better ground should suit.

2022 - + £105.15 (5 wins from 10 bets)

Edited by Bang on
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3 hours ago, gbettle said:

Good luck all.

 

event_date time course selection betfair position
2022-01-26 14:10 Catterick Get Your Own 2.06  
2022-01-26 17:00 Kempton Montesecco 2.36  
2022-01-26 19:00 Kempton Come On Girl 2.44  
           
           
Bet Total Outlay Total Return Total Profit    
Trixie 20.00 (4 bets of 5.00) 137.54 117.54    

There is no reason why trying to achieve break even if at least one double comes in on a Trixie.  I have done this with over 95% of my Trixies since day one.  In fact you can back one odds on at a price e.g 1/2 and as long as the other two are at least 2/1 against you will still break even or get a small profit if two selections win.

What concerns me a little bit is that I feel your success over the past few months is very much related to choosing the correct odds on shots that have produced the goods for you.  The above selections seem to me to be based upon a different selection criteria you successfully applied yesterday.

I do wish you every success with these as I am sure all your followers do, however, I have doubts that if you applied the above evens per selection in the future that you would have the same success that you have achieved in the past.

Good luck anyway,      

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1 hour ago, The Equaliser said:

There is no reason why trying to achieve break even if at least one double comes in on a Trixie.  I have done this with over 95% of my Trixies since day one.  In fact you can back one odds on at a price e.g 1/2 and as long as the other two are at least 2/1 against you will still break even or get a small profit if two selections win.

What concerns me a little bit is that I feel your success over the past few months is very much related to choosing the correct odds on shots that have produced the goods for you.  The above selections seem to me to be based upon a different selection criteria you successfully applied yesterday.

I do wish you every success with these as I am sure all your followers do, however, I have doubts that if you applied the above evens per selection in the future that you would have the same success that you have achieved in the past.

Good luck anyway,      

Why do you think the above selections are based on a different criteria ?? They are totally correct to the rules posted .

By definition the vast majority of selections will be odds on , (the only 2 odds on horses today didn't qualify ) to put a price stipulation would make a nonsense of the original selection criteria.  

People should check the selections each day (actually you can do it yourself if you read the rules ) bet 'em or don't and if it goes tits up form a queue to say 'I told you so ' until that happens or if,  enjoy spending the extra cash .

 

Edited by roger2256
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47 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

There is no reason why trying to achieve break even if at least one double comes in on a Trixie.  I have done this with over 95% of my Trixies since day one.  In fact you can back one odds on at a price e.g 1/2 and as long as the other two are at least 2/1 against you will still break even or get a small profit if two selections win.

What concerns me a little bit is that I feel your success over the past few months is very much related to choosing the correct odds on shots that have produced the goods for you.  The above selections seem to me to be based upon a different selection criteria you successfully applied yesterday.

I do wish you every success with these as I am sure all your followers do, however, I have doubts that if you applied the above evens per selection in the future that you would have the same success that you have achieved in the past.

Good luck anyway,      

It's not a different selection criteria - those are the shortest priced favs (with only 0 or 1 RP tip - see below) when I took my odds line from Betfair at 10:19 GMT.

The system is:

  1. from all UK & Eire races, find the favourites;
  2. compare them with the RP Naps table, found here
  3. take any favourite that has either 0 or 1 tip from the RP Naps Table - we now have a set of candidates for my daily trixie
  4. filter that set of candidates by 0 or 1 tip only, and then take the lowest 3.
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7 minutes ago, roger2256 said:

Why do you think the above selections are based on a different criteria ?? They are totally correct to the rules posted .

By definition the vast majority of selections will be odds on , (the only 2 odds on horses today didn't qualify ) to put a price stipulation would make a nonsense of the original selection criteria.  

People should check the selections each day (actually you can do it yourself if you read the rules ) bet 'em or don't and if it goes tits up form a queue to say 'I told you so ' until that happens or if,  enjoy spending the extra cash .

 

I don't follow anyone.  I am just thinking about others who do ?

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1 minute ago, gbettle said:

It's not a different selection criteria - those are the shortest priced favs (with only 0 or 1 RP tip - see below) when I took my odds line from Betfair at 10:19 GMT.

The system is:

  1. from all UK & Eire races, find the favourites;
  2. compare them with the RP Naps table, found here
  3. take any favourite that has either 0 or 1 tip from the RP Naps Table - we now have a set of candidates for my daily trixie
  4. filter that set of candidates by 0 or 1 tip only, and then take the lowest 3.

Ah OK, but why did you have a data issue problem a week or so ago?

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5 hours ago, gbettle said:

Good luck all.

 

event_date time course selection betfair position
2022-01-26 14:10 Catterick Get Your Own 2.06  
2022-01-26 17:00 Kempton Montesecco 2.36  
2022-01-26 19:00 Kempton Come On Girl 2.44  
           
           
Bet Total Outlay Total Return Total Profit    
Trixie 20.00 (4 bets of 5.00) 137.54 117.54    

2 to go but I can already see that I should have gone with Criollo:

 

Criollo.jpg

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11 hours ago, gbettle said:

Good luck all.

 

event_date time course selection betfair position
2022-01-26 14:10 Catterick Get Your Own 2.06  
2022-01-26 17:00 Kempton Montesecco 2.36  
2022-01-26 19:00 Kempton Come On Girl 2.44  
           
           
Bet Total Outlay Total Return Total Profit    
Trixie 20.00 (4 bets of 5.00) 137.54 117.54    

 

event_date time course selection betfair position
2022-01-26 14:10 Catterick Get Your Own 2.06 3
2022-01-26 17:00 Kempton Montesecco 2.36 5
2022-01-26 19:00 Kempton Come On Girl 2.44 4
           
           
Bet Total Outlay Total Return Total Profit    
Trixie 20.00 (4 bets of 5.00) 0.00 -20.00    
           
Month bets outlay return profit  
1 26 520 664.69 144.69  
Edited by gbettle
re-alignment of cells
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4 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

The fun for me is to try and be successful using my own criterion.  I would love to emulate your success with my Trixie's. Here's hoping your next selection wins because, then, at least or should I say last, I will have my first Trixie in for the new year

Your missing the point as to what gb is referring to when he asks ' why' 

Are you aware of the government's new gambling review ? 

Basically it's a bunch of do gooders poking their noses into other people's business and deciding what we, the public can and can't bet on and how much . 

Do you understand the similarities here ? 

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14 minutes ago, roger2256 said:

Your missing the point as to what gb is referring to when he asks ' why' 

Are you aware of the government's new gambling review ? 

Basically it's a bunch of do gooders poking their noses into other people's business and deciding what we, the public can and can't bet on and how much . 

Do you understand the similarities here ? 

Cheers Roger, my sentiments exactly  

Edited by gbettle
wasn't finished
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1 hour ago, roger2256 said:

Your missing the point as to what gb is referring to when he asks ' why' 

Are you aware of the government's new gambling review ? 

Basically it's a bunch of do gooders poking their noses into other people's business and deciding what we, the public can and can't bet on and how much . 

Do you understand the similarities here ? 

Well, OK.  I do care about other people who place bets.  The government needs to crack down on restricting unscrupulous betting institutions that encourage problem gamblers to exhaust all the money that they have and more through running up debt.  It has and does ruin people's lives.  I have known a few of these victims so I welcome some attention being given to problem gamblers.  These poor souls cannot help being suckered into bad habits and need help.  The government will probably not do anything to help them anyway.  I think that children should be taught in school about the realities of gambling and the pitfalls that are all too easy to fall into for vulnerable people who just don't understand what they are getting themselves into. 

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