Jump to content
Announcements
** November Poker League Result : 1st ian309, 2nd juanmoment, 3rd McG **
** Football Tipster Competition Result : 1st Soi Bongkot, 2nd fischer21, 3rd chillymonster, 4th Pempi, 5th patriciamarc **
** October Naps Competition Result: 1st sirspread, 2nd kenisbusy, 3rd Artie77, 4th Mick33. KO Cup Winner: The Equaliser, Most Winners: CS333 **

£20 Daily Challenge - All Welcome


BillyHills

Recommended Posts

25 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

Do you have any data to support this ?

No, but when you say things like "you won't go far wrong by backing odds on favourites this is clearly not true.

My Best of The Best selections bear testimony to the fact that one will lose money by backing odds on favourites.

That is not to say that you lose money by backing odds on favourites, you have a selection process that excludes other odds on false favourites. 

One has to be very careful imo about touting the benefits of backing odds on favourites without very careful consideration

For example there is one running today in the 5.00 at Listowel a Willie Mullins horse named Mt Leinster, currently being offered at a best price of 8/13.  I doubt very much that your selection process will have you lumping on this one 🙂

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

11 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

No, but when you say things like "you won't go far wrong by backing odds on favourites this is clearly not true.

My Best of The Best selections bear testimony to the fact that one will lose money by backing odds on favourites.

 I posted this last Saturday.

"One of the safest strategies out there is to back horses that are very short odds. If you had backed all horses this year at odds of 8/13 or less then you would have had 447 winners from 633 runners and a profit of 3%. If you had restricted it to odds of 1/4 or less you would have had 109 winners from 120 runners and a profit of 11%."

So why do you claim my statement is clearly not true?

The small sample you have posted doesn't really prove anything I'm afraid.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

28 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

 

 I posted this last Saturday.

"One of the safest strategies out there is to back horses that are very short odds. If you had backed all horses this year at odds of 8/13 or less then you would have had 447 winners from 633 runners and a profit of 3%. If you had restricted it to odds of 1/4 or less you would have had 109 winners from 120 runners and a profit of 11%."

So why do you claim my statement is clearly not true?

The small sample you have posted doesn't really prove anything I'm afraid.

Well, to make money in this game one has to be selective and that includes placing money on odds on favourites.

Will you put £300 to win on Mt Leinster today?

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

Well, to make money in this game one has to be selective and that includes placing money on odds on favourites.

Will you put £300 to win on Mt Leinster today?

 

It would be good if this thread was limited to £20 challenge selections. Perhaps a new thread could be started for your discussion.  Just a thought!.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

31 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

If it was a system selection I'd have no problem betting on it.

I'd rather put it on that than any of the 150/1 shots in the same race.

Haha, not taking much of a chance are you.  Anyway I will be laying selected odds on shots from the 1st October.

And just so as not to offend the over read and stressed PL member @NigwilliamI will be posting these on the daily racing chat thread.

Banned from doing so on this thread by the illustrious @Valiant Thorwho threatened not to post up any more selections on this thread until I did so.  Despite me not posting up "lay" selections as promised he seems to have gone very quiet with no posts at all

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, gbettle said:

Mt Leinster is a back for me because not 1 tipster - https://www.racingpost.com/tipping/naps-table/ - has selected it. 

And yet the wisdom of the crowd have still made it a 1.61, 8/13 fav.

2nd by 12 lengths: "Pulled hard, led, 3 lengths ahead before halfway, clear with one other after halfway, joined under 3f out, pushed along over 2f out, headed when ridden briefly towards far side under 2f out, soon no extra and eased, no match for winner (op 8/13)"

1st 15/8 Barbados: "Chased leader, disputing second after 3f, 3 lengths second before halfway, clear with one other after halfway, joined leader under 3f out, led going best towards near side under 2f out, went clear when ridden over 1f out, kept on strongly, easily (op 7/4)"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 9/24/2021 at 7:42 AM, gbettle said:

 

event_date time course selection betfair position
2021-09-24 13:00 Haydock Lockerbie 1.66  
2021-09-24 13:15 Newmarket Al Jaddaf 1.49  
2021-09-24 17:35 Listowel Pink In The Park 1.85  
           
           
Bet Total Outlay Total Return Total Profit    
Trixie 20.00 (4 bets of 5.00) 64.38 44.38    

 

event_date time course selection betfair position
2021-09-24 13:00 Haydock Lockerbie 1.66 4
2021-09-24 13:15 Newmarket Al Jaddaf 1.49 2
2021-09-24 17:35 Listowel Pink In The Park 1.85 1
           
           
Bet Total Outlay Total Return Total Profit    
Trixie 20.00 (4 bets of 5.00) 0.00 -20.00    

 

Month bets outlay return profit
8 31 620 703.98 83.98
9 24 480 464.92 -15.08
Link to comment
Share on other sites

event_date time course selection betfair position
2021-09-25 14:45 Market Rasen Caramelised 1.79  
2021-09-25 16:20 Chester Mujtaba 1.7  
2021-09-25 16:25 Haydock Pride Of Priory 1.59  
           
           
Bet Total Outlay Total Return Total Profit    
Trixie 20.00 (4 bets of 5.00) 67.15 47.15    
Link to comment
Share on other sites

23 hours ago, gbettle said:

 

event_date time course selection betfair position
2021-09-25 14:45 Market Rasen Caramelised 1.79  
2021-09-25 16:20 Chester Mujtaba 1.7  
2021-09-25 16:25 Haydock Pride Of Priory 1.59  
           
           
Bet Total Outlay Total Return Total Profit    
Trixie 20.00 (4 bets of 5.00) 67.15 47.15    

 

event_date time course selection betfair position
2021-09-25 14:45 Market Rasen Caramelised 1.79 3
2021-09-25 16:20 Chester Mujtaba 1.7 1
2021-09-25 16:25 Haydock Pride Of Priory 1.59 1
           
           
Bet Total Outlay Total Return Total Profit    
Trixie 20.00 (4 bets of 5.00) 13.52 -6.49    

 

Month bets outlay return profit
8 31 620 703.98 83.98
9 25 500 478.44 -21.56
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
×
  • Create New...