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BillyHills

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21 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

If it wins you make money. One of the safest strategies out there is to back horses that are very short odds.

If you had backed all horses this year at odds of 8/13 or less then you would have had 447 winners from 633 runners and a profit of 3%. Longest winning run would have been 13, longest losing run 6.

If you had restricted it to odds of 1/4 or less you would have had 109 winners from 120 runners and a profit of 11%. Longest winning run would have been 22 and the longest losing run 3.

 

 

Excellent analysis as always.  I will bear the above information in mind when I start laying the big 3's odds on shots next month.  The reasoning behind this is that they are over bet and I hope that this will make it a profitable strategy 🙂

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5 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

The reasoning behind this is that they are over bet and I hope that this will make it a profitable strategy

Perhaps they are not overbet purely because of the fact a lot of punters will not back them because of the misconception that odds on represents poor value. I hope that this misconception continues as it means the rest of us can make money,

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7 hours ago, Valiant Thor said:

AUG  +62.14
SEPT +93.51
B365

image.png.2ea55c3a3a1e378352061d97a2904f88.png
4.12...GUBBAS
8.70...KOY KOY
7.18...THREE DONS

One required for break even / small profit

4.12...GUBBAS...........LOST...7th
8.70...KOY KOY...........WON...20.62
7.18...THREE DONS...LOST...2nd

STAKED...20...RETURNED...20.62...PROFIT...0.62PTS (better than a loss 🙄)
AUG  +62.14

SEPT +94.13

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7 hours ago, gbettle said:

 

event_date Time Course Selection betfair position
2021-09-18 14:50 Newbury Al Aasy 1.71  
2021-09-18 14:55 Navan Chemical Energy 1.37  
2021-09-18 17:15 Catterick Old Flame 1.6  
           
           
Bet Total Outlay Total Return Total Profit    
Trixie 20.00 (4 bets of 5.00) 55.10 35.10    

event_date Time Course Selection betfair position
2021-09-18 14:50 Newbury Al Aasy 1.71 4
2021-09-18 14:55 Navan Chemical Energy 1.37 1
2021-09-18 17:15 Catterick Old Flame 1.6 1
           
           
Bet Total Outlay Total Return Total Profit    
Trixie 20.00 (4 bets of 5.00) 10.96 -9.04    

 

Month bets outlay return profit
8 31 620 703.98 83.98
9 18 360 328.68 -31.32
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22 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

Perhaps they are not overbet purely because of the fact a lot of punters will not back them because of the misconception that odds on represents poor value. I hope that this misconception continues as it means the rest of us can make money,

The same conclusion was derived by an actuary E.L Figgis in an audit for the Royal Commission on Gambling back in 1950,1965,1973 and published in their report in 1978

Quote

Figgis’ evidence for 1950, 1965 and 1973,
using starting prices, demonstrates that for the shortest odds examined – i.e.
0.4 to 1 (5 to 2 on) or less – the average pre-tax return varied from 97.2 per
cent in 1950 to 108.1 per cent in 1965 and to 108.5 per cent in 1973.
Calculations of the returns in 1975 and 1976, performed for the Royal
Commission on Gambling, found rates of return of 112.1 per cent and 107
per cent, respectively.

Similar findings were published by Henery in 1985 covering uk flat racing
Also in the Ladbrokes Pocket Companion (1990) in a trial from 1985~1989 placing bets of odds under 1/2 or shorter yielded a positive return of 6.5%

From at least 1950 to present day this has and does still exist, so It amazes me you still read the crap "you cant make money backing favs" bandied around by punters who cant see the wood for the trees or think they know better than the market.
Like you say "it means the rest of us can make money" and long may it continue. ;)

Edited by Valiant Thor
format
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18 minutes ago, Valiant Thor said:

The same conclusion was derived by an actuary E.L Figgis in an audit for the Royal Commission on Gambling back in 1950,1965,1973 and published in their report in 1978

Similar findings were published by Henery in 1985 covering uk flat racing
Also in the Ladbrokes Pocket Companion (1990) in a trial from 1985~1989 placing bets of odds under 1/2 or shorter yielded a positive return of 6.5%

From at least 1950 to present day this has and does still exist, so It amazes me you still read the crap "you cant make money backing favs" bandied around by punters who cant see the wood for the trees or think they know better than the market.
Like you say "it means the rest of us can make money" and long may it continue. ;)

class 1 2-7 runners shows 111% but hardly any bets each year

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25 minutes ago, Valiant Thor said:

Just the 1 today , about the best of a bad bunch , still a bit of meat in the 2.88 with the odds boost IMO

I have analysed my bets over the last few years and on Sundays I have lost money. This is probably related to the lower quantity of racing on Sunday. As an example my £20 daily challenge today is 20/1.

I may start to have a break on Sundays or restrict myself to just one bet.

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1 minute ago, Wildgarden said:

class 1 2-7 runners shows 111% but hardly any bets each year

The amount of bets is irrelevant its about return on investment,
People are putting £1500 in ISA's for 12 month to make £15 pa if they're lucky
When inflation is around 3% theyre basically investing to lose money and theyre told its a good deal because its tax free, so how does that work (and thats like one bet in relative terms).
People who are serious about "betting" should look at it more of a business IMO, anyone can sell stuff for less than its worth and then go bust, others seek the value and make money the same as anything be it stocks , business , betting they're all just a numbers game.

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6 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

I have analysed my bets over the last few years and on Sundays I have lost money. This is probably related to the lower quantity of racing on Sunday.

I may start to have a break on Sundays or restrict myself to just one bet.

All my betting selections are automated to eradicate any emotion in the choice , so whether its Mon,Wed or Sun makes no difference (boring maybe but its how i like to do things, easier to quantify)
 

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3 minutes ago, Valiant Thor said:

People are putting £1500 in ISA's for 12 month to make £15 pa if they're lucky

I agree, putting it in a bank you will lose money in real terms.

A stocks and shares ISA is another matter, you can pick a world index tracker and probably make on average 5%  + per annum without any knowledge of investing. Those with good knowledge can make 10% +. You obviously need the balls to withstand the big falls that are likely but if you start early and put regular amounts into the ISA then it will grow very nicely due to the impact of compound interest (described as the 8th wonder of the world by Albert Einstein).

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37 minutes ago, Valiant Thor said:

All my betting selections are automated to eradicate any emotion in the choice , so whether its Mon,Wed or Sun makes no difference (boring maybe but its how i like to do things, easier to quantify)

Probably wise. I tend to have 3 serious bets a day out of the many selections my systems throw up.

Whether I put £100 each on 3 selections or £2 each on 150 selections the ROI should be the same in the long term.

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