Jump to content
Announcements
*** York Ebor Competition: Well done to 1st daveg, 2nd glavintobuy & 3rd Donnyflyer ***
** September Poker League Result : =1st muttley & juanmoment, 3rd McG **
** September Naps Competition Result: 1st Mick33, 2nd BBBC, 3rd Rainbow, 4th Tipsterix. KO Cup Winner: CS333, Most Winners: Alastair **

£20 Daily Challenge - All Welcome


BillyHills

Recommended Posts

5 hours ago, Valiant Thor said:

The two  +10% EV I had for today are now both NR's :\ so brought in a couple of reserves with a lower +expected value ( I dont normally back them unless I've estimated them to be in my goldilocks zone of  +10% > +25% ev )  but these are still IMO just over +5% ev mark, so see how they go.
AUG  +62.14
SEPT +75.22
image.png.2e09fb20f84bf68476272f79c6c101e1.png
10pts...FAUVETTE
10pts...ZIGGY

 

10pts...FAUVETTE...WON...30
10pts...ZIGGY..........LOST....2nd
STAKED...20...RETURNED...30...PROFIT...10
AUG  +62.14

SEPT +85.22

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 9/12/2021 at 6:17 PM, gbettle said:

 

event_date Time Course Selection betfair position
2021-09-12 14:35 Chelmsford City Mutafawwig 1.90 5
2021-09-12 14:45 Bath Pretty Sweet 1.62 1
2021-09-12 16:05 Curragh Point Lonsdale 1.70 2
           
           
Bet Total Outlay Total Return Total Profit    
Trixie 20.00 (4 bets of 5.00) 0.00 -20.00    

 

 

Month bets outlay return profit
8 31 620 703.98 83.98
9 12 240 150.48 -89.52

Nearly had it, by a nose 

event_date Time Course Selection betfair position
2021-09-15 16:00 Kelso Zafar 1.48 1
2021-09-15 16:10 Beverley At A Pinch 1.23 2
2021-09-15 16:15 Sligo Fancy Foundations 1.71 1
           
           
Bet Total Outlay Total Return Total Profit    
Trixie 20.00 (4 bets of 5.00) 12.65 -7.35    

 

Month bets outlay return profit
8 31 620 703.98 83.98
9 15 300 240.06 -59.94
Link to comment
Share on other sites

event_date Time Course Selection betfair position
2021-09-16 13:25 Naas Pirate Jenny 2.10  
2021-09-16 14:00 Naas Leinster House 1.90  
2021-09-16 14:05 Yarmouth Wajd 2.84  
           
           
Bet Total Outlay Total Return Total Profit    
Trixie 20.00 (4 bets of 5.00) 133.41 113.41    
Link to comment
Share on other sites

AUG  +62.14
SEPT +85.22
image.png.b2970b1dde15900b510ff7ff49d0ef1a.png 
B365
image.png.12e9a9688c02cc5d604e9cbf71740c5b.png
WIN ONLY 5.75pts
PLACE ONLY 14.25
place needed for small profit

NB..3.75 was freely available by several books when first posted unfortunately all books are now around 3.5 or less, which I have no control over.
I calculated sp to be around 3.00 to 3.25 so still some meat left in the sandwich so to speak (if it wins).

Edited by Valiant Thor
Add NB
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Valiant Thor said:

AUG  +62.14
SEPT +85.22
image.png.b2970b1dde15900b510ff7ff49d0ef1a.png 
B365
image.png.12e9a9688c02cc5d604e9cbf71740c5b.png
WIN ONLY 5.75pts
PLACE ONLY 14.25
place needed for small profit

NB..3.75 was freely available by several books when first posted unfortunately all books are now around 3.5 or less, which I have no control over.
I calculated sp to be around 3.00 to 3.25 so still some meat left in the sandwich so to speak (if it wins).

Now 11/10 :loon
Its a runaway train

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 hours ago, gbettle said:

 

event_date Time Course Selection betfair position
2021-09-16 13:25 Naas Pirate Jenny 2.10  
2021-09-16 14:00 Naas Leinster House 1.90  
2021-09-16 14:05 Yarmouth Wajd 2.84  
           
           
Bet Total Outlay Total Return Total Profit    
Trixie 20.00 (4 bets of 5.00) 133.41 113.41    

 

event_date Time Course Selection betfair position
2021-09-16 13:25 Naas Pirate Jenny 2.10 NR
2021-09-16 14:00 Naas Leinster House 1.90 1
2021-09-16 14:05 Yarmouth Wajd 2.84 1
           
           
Bet Total Outlay Total Return Total Profit    
Trixie 20.00 (4 bets of 5.00) 77.66 57.66    

 

Month bets outlay return profit
8 31 620 703.98 83.98
9 16 320 317.72 -2.28
Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 hours ago, Valiant Thor said:

AUG  +62.14
SEPT +85.22
image.png.b2970b1dde15900b510ff7ff49d0ef1a.png 
B365
image.png.12e9a9688c02cc5d604e9cbf71740c5b.png
WIN ONLY 5.75pts
PLACE ONLY 14.25
place needed for small profit

NB..3.75 was freely available by several books when first posted unfortunately all books are now around 3.5 or less, which I have no control over.
I calculated sp to be around 3.00 to 3.25 so still some meat left in the sandwich so to speak (if it wins).

WIN ONLY 5.75pts...LOST...2nd
PLACE ONLY 14.25...WON...21.37
STAKED...20...RETURNED...21.37...PROFIT...1.37
AUG  +62.14

SEPT +86.59

 

Edited by Valiant Thor
Link to comment
Share on other sites

event_date Time Course Selection betfair position
2021-09-17 13:45 Newbury Silk Romance 1.52  
2021-09-17 16:45 Newton Abbot Eglantine Du Seuil 1.03  
2021-09-17 16:55 Downpatrick Top Bandit 1.39  
           
           
Bet Total Outlay Total Return Total Profit    
Trixie 20.00 (4 bets of 5.00) 36.43 16.43    
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, Valiant Thor said:

Only 2 to chose from today and unfortunately both in same race. :\
Some don't like backing 2 in a race but I look at it as purely a math algorithm and a 34.6% roi IF SUCCESSFUL seems fine by me.
B365 prices correct @ time of posting
image.png.eaecb99b818431c060aac43e5c691533.png
12.82pts...SHE'S A NOVELTY
7.18pts.....GINGER DU VAL

12.82pts...SHE'S A NOVELTY...LOST...2nd
7.18pts.....GINGER DU VAL......WON...26.92
STAKED...20...RETURNED...26.92...PROFIT...6.92
AUG  +62.14

SEPT +93.51
 

Edited by Valiant Thor
Update
Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 hours ago, gbettle said:

 

event_date Time Course Selection betfair position
2021-09-17 13:45 Newbury Silk Romance 1.52  
2021-09-17 16:45 Newton Abbot Eglantine Du Seuil 1.03  
2021-09-17 16:55 Downpatrick Top Bandit 1.39  
           
           
Bet Total Outlay Total Return Total Profit    
Trixie 20.00 (4 bets of 5.00) 36.43 16.43    

 

WTF Eglantine Du Seuil?! 1/12 fav beaten - 3rd!!! - by a combined 48/1 runners ... punters sold down the river:

"Led, jumped right, 7 lengths ahead 14th, reduced lead when mistake 4 out, pushed along when jumped badly right 2 out, headed when blundered and jockey lost irons last, soon lost second and eased (tchd 1/7)"

event_date Time Course Selection betfair position
2021-09-17 13:45 Newbury Silk Romance 1.52 2
2021-09-17 16:45 Newton Abbot Eglantine Du Seuil 1.03 3
2021-09-17 16:55 Downpatrick Top Bandit 1.39 1
           
           
Bet Total Outlay Total Return Total Profit    
Trixie 20.00 (4 bets of 5.00) 0.00 -20.00    

 

Month bets outlay return profit
8 31 620 703.98 83.98
9 17 340 317.72 -22.28
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, gbettle said:

 

WTF Eglantine Du Seuil?! 1/12 fav beaten - 3rd!!! - by a combined 48/1 runners ... punters sold down the river:

"Led, jumped right, 7 lengths ahead 14th, reduced lead when mistake 4 out, pushed along when jumped badly right 2 out, headed when blundered and jockey lost irons last, soon lost second and eased (tchd 1/7)"

event_date Time Course Selection betfair position
2021-09-17 13:45 Newbury Silk Romance 1.52 2
2021-09-17 16:45 Newton Abbot Eglantine Du Seuil 1.03 3
2021-09-17 16:55 Downpatrick Top Bandit 1.39 1
           
           
Bet Total Outlay Total Return Total Profit    
Trixie 20.00 (4 bets of 5.00) 0.00 -20.00    

 

 

Month bets outlay return profit
8 31 620 703.98 83.98
9 17 340 317.72 -22.28

WTF indeed!.      Horse must have a thing about 3m2f races.    Ran twice at that distance and fell the first time.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 hours ago, Nigwilliam said:

WTF indeed!.      Horse must have a thing about 3m2f races.    Ran twice at that distance and fell the first time.

Well nobody makes anyone put money on a horse at such cramped odds so I guess you have to accept the consequences of taking what is assumed to be a very small risk.  I was watching an old "jumpers and bumpers" video with John Francome in the spotlight the other day.  He said that although some trainers make it look  easy to get multiple winners in a day sometimes, but people just do not realise how difficult it is to get a horse to a race track and then get it to win.  Taking very short odds about any horse is not a sensible option imo unless one has very specialised knowledge and a strategy that is proven to be profitable over time.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 hours ago, gbettle said:

WTF Eglantine Du Seuil?! 1/12 fav beaten - 3rd!!! - by a combined 48/1 runners ... punters sold down the river:

At those odds you would expect it to lose 1 race out of 13 so not that big a surprise.

It is only the same as a horse winning at 12/1 and we don't express amazement when that happens.

It is very irritating though when you've backed it, @Alastairwon't be happy because it was his nap in his quest to win the most winners competition.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

At those odds you would expect it to lose 1 race out of 13 so not that big a surprise.

It is only the same as a horse winning at 12/1 and we don't express amazement when that happens.

It is very irritating though when you've backed it, @Alastairwon't be happy because it was his nap in his quest to win the most winners competition.

I think I've had a 1/25 loser in the past in the competition.........

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

Well nobody makes anyone put money on a horse at such cramped odds

If it wins you make money. One of the safest strategies out there is to back horses that are very short odds.

If you had backed all horses this year at odds of 8/13 or less then you would have had 447 winners from 633 runners and a profit of 3%. Longest winning run would have been 13, longest losing run 6.

If you had restricted it to odds of 1/4 or less you would have had 109 winners from 120 runners and a profit of 11%. Longest winning run would have been 22 and the longest losing run 3.

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
×
  • Create New...