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Australian Open 2018


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Well, I'm not sure what the world has come to now that we have Sandgrens making it to the QFs. The guy almost lost against the semi-retired Przysiezny in Auckland and now this. If anyone still thinks that short-priced accas are the way to go in tennis, this GS should be the final wake-up call. Some upsets can be predicted and understood, but how on earth could anyone possibly pick Sandgren to beat Thiem and Pera to beat Konta is beyond me. Those results were sheer madness.

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1 hour ago, CzechPunter said:

Well, I'm not sure what the world has come to now that we have Sandgrens making it to the QFs. The guy almost lost against the semi-retired Przysiezny in Auckland and now this. If anyone still thinks that short-priced accas are the way to go in tennis, this GS should be the final wake-up call. Some upsets can be predicted and understood, but how on earth could anyone possibly pick Sandgren to beat Thiem and Pera to beat Konta is beyond me. Those results were sheer madness.

Or Istomin to beat Novak and Zverev to beat Murray last Aus Open. The Aus Open is probably the most unpredictable slam. In recent years we've seen Baghdatis, Tsonga, Gonzalez play in the final plus Johannson somehow won it in 2002 :loon

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6 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Well, I'm not sure what the world has come to now that we have Sandgrens making it to the QFs. The guy almost lost against the semi-retired Przysiezny in Auckland and now this. If anyone still thinks that short-priced accas are the way to go in tennis, this GS should be the final wake-up call. Some upsets can be predicted and understood, but how on earth could anyone possibly pick Sandgren to beat Thiem and Pera to beat Konta is beyond me. Those results were sheer madness.

I'm not sure that Sandgren beating Thiem was so much of a surprise after Thiem struggled so badly against Kudla and Sandgren beat Wawrinka, which regardless of the condition Wawrinka was in would have given Sandgren a big boost in confidence. Even Pera beating Konta wasn't that much of a surprise from a form perspective - Pera with lots of wins since the second half of last season and Konta struggling ever since Wimbledon pretty much, although even taking that into account you could never have predicted that she would have trouble staying on her feet - that's usually a given in tennis :lol

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41 minutes ago, owenclass said:

Do you think the Dimitrov Edmund match will go to four sets as i fancy over 37.5 games 4/5 paddy power

Also Dimitrov to win 3-1 11/4 paddy power

To be honest, it is hard to know what to expect from the Dimitrov/Edmund match with all the drama that has happened so far. Firstly considering the details of the head to head between the two of them, Dimitrov has to be said to be prized way too short. Edmund has played Dimitrov twice losing in three close sets both times. I really think situation-wise Edmunds is in a very good place. He will enjoy the freedom of playing with house money knowing that there is a realistic chance of victory.

If Dimitrov can beat Edmund 3-0 after the physical exertions from the combined matches of Mcdonalds, Rublev and Kyrgios, then he will just have to be considered too good. These are what slams are all about for players of Edmund's calibre. Attempt and believe to do what you have never done before!! The only threat in my opinion to the 37.5 target is Edmund running away with a 3-0 win which is not beyond the realms of possibility. With adrenalin and the gritty British blood flowing through Evans, I strongly believe having already played Dimitrov twice before, he can win with the +1.5 set handicap at 6/4. Real value. Good luck all!!!

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Well, downhill it is, although I suppose that I still have the Halep outright to hope for. She's certainly not the main favourite for the title, but, if Kerber is tired enough to lose against Keys tomorrow and she beats Pliskova, things could happen. She would certainly be the favourite in the finals - in fact, I reckon that this applies to everyone from her part of the draw.

T.Berdych/R.Federer - Over 3.5 sets at 1.83 with Bet365

I'm a bit surprised to see Berdych being as good as he is after that disaster against Struff, but it seems that he's really turned things around after the Tiebreak Tens. He did have some luck against DelPo and Fognini, but you don't beat those players 3-0 with ease even if you have a lot of luck. He is playing well, there can be no doubts about that, and the important thing is that he's battle-hardened coming into this. Federer hasn't really had to do much so far, as all his previous opponents neatly folded when it mattered. Berdych shouldn't and he will be eager to take his revenge for the last year's defeat, so I think there's a good chance this won't be over in three sets. The odds certainly look worth it to me.

H.Chung/T.Sandgren - Over 3.5 sets at 2.00 with 10Bet

If Chung plays like he did against Djokovic, he's going to win this in straight sets. It really was an excellent performance and he fully deserved to win 3-0, but, well, I'm not sure what it's going to do to him mentally now that he'll have to adjust to playing against a "Challenger-level" opponent. Sandgren has been serving from a tree so far and, if he keeps that first serve percentage high, he'll have some good chances to win a set or even more. He's the player that doesn't have anything to lose here and I reckon that he's not going to choke after not choking against Wawrinka and Thiem, so I'd have the overs at around 1.70 here, not at evens. 

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Funny story. Last year, I had a pre-season bet on Edmund to finish as the best Brit (except Murray). Bedene had a massive lead mid-season, but got injured and Edmund started to catch up with him. Final score was Bedene 993 points, Edmund 992 points. That would be alright somehow, but, in his last match of the season, he was 5-1* up against Jack Sock in the decider, lost it 6-7 to lose the match and the bet. And now he's into the AO semis :notworthy. Amazing things happen.

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I had a bet on Edmund to beat Dimitrov in Brisbane haha . Tennis is an incredible sport, Anderson led him 2-1 in the first round and was a break up in the fifth but somehow managed to lost it, Basilashvili should have beaten him as well and Seppi was in full control for one set and a half but then he entered in some self destruction mode. And today he beats easily the number 3 in the world and he is now 6 sets away from winning a grand slam. just amazing

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Czech, now that Rafa is also eliminated, do you think we will see a first time winner? I have a sneaky feeling Roger is not winning this. I have a strong suspicion Chung might surprise. What are your thoughts? Do you think Cilic has a legit chance now? Who'd you pick now if you had to? 

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9 minutes ago, Senking said:

Czech, now that Rafa is also eliminated, do you think we will see a first time winner? I have a sneaky feeling Roger is not winning this. I have a strong suspicion Chung might surprise. What are your thoughts? Do you think Cilic has a legit chance now? Who'd you pick now if you had to? 

I would pick Chung to win the tournament.

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Simona Halep vs Karolina Pliskova

Over 21.5 games 4/5 paddy power

Halep to win match  4/5 paddy power

Halep to win 3-1 11/4 paddy power

I really hope this match is a classic as it should be a long one but it could be one sided as well. But with the quality players on show then it should be two tight sets

 

I think it will be a long match in the Federer Berdych and Chung Sandsgren matches so i fancy overs in both

I also fancy Federer to win 3-1 5/2 paddy power. And Chung to win 3/1 11/4 paddy power

Both bets combined is 14/1 paddy power

Edited by owenclass
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Looking at everything, I'm not even sure that I'm going to have any more bets for this Australian Open, can't see a bet yet, maybe on Federer against Chung depending on what the lines are going to be. After seeing today's QFs in the women's section, I'm surprised that Kerber is only a slight favourite against Halep, I'd have her as a bigger one. I can't really bet on her due to the pre-season bet that I have on Halep and I will obviously be hoping for Halep to win, but I think that the odds are an overreaction to her win over Pliskova. She was crap for three games, then Pliskova failed to break her for a *4-0 lead and the Czech switched off completely. Yes, Halep was good, but Kerber isn't going to self-destruct like Pliskova, she's too good for that at the moment. One streak is going to end tonight, as Halep is 10-0 and Kerber 14-0, but i'd take the 1.80 for Kerber if I didn't have the bet on. I guess you could also say that Keys fell apart against Kerber like Pliskova did against Halep, so just take those matches out and look at the rest of the seasons.

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Btw, some other stories. Tennys Sandgren has apparently deleted all his Twitter messages. His GS run has gotten him so much attention that people actually went through his Twitter and...well..it didn't go so well. Meanwhile, Sam Groth has called it quits and will now be trying to make it in rugby (yes, seriously).

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Yeah, okay, I'll have a bet.

Roger Federer (-1.5 sets) to beat Hyeon Chung at 1.45 with Marathonbet

Not a fan of short odds, but I think this should be 1.30 - and it perhaps will come match time. Chung loves playing gainst stereotypical tennis from the back of the court, but he's not going to get any of that against Federer. Also, he doesn't have a second serve at the moment. If he plays like he did against Sandgren, it will be easy three. If he plays like he did against Djokovic, he might sneak a set, but it will be the biggest surprise of the tournament for me if he takes two.

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Elise Mertens vs Caroline Wozniacki 

Over 20.5 games 4/5 paddy power

Over 2.5 sets 5/4 paddy power

Bertens to win 7/4 paddy power

 

This is not going to be straight forward for Wozniacki as her opponent is playing great tennis and this match could go to three sets

 

Simona Halep vs Angelique Kerber

Over 21.5 games 4/5 paddy power

Over 2.5 sets 5/4 paddy power

Halep to win 11/10 paddy power

 

Well Kerber is favourite to win the match but I feel that she has already played her match of the tournament in the last round. And feel that her opponent has a better defence which Kerber won't like and I can see this match going to three sets but will probably be two very tight sets

 

 

The first semi final is going to be interesting so my selections are

Cilic to beat Edmund 1/2 paddy power

Cilic to win 3-1 11/4 paddy power

Over 38.5 games 4/5 paddy power

 

I think it is probably the end for Edmund as his opponent will have too much experience as he has been in the position before. But Edmund is making his first appearance so he will definitely be nervous. I'm sure both players will win a set and a couple of tie breaks will cover the overs bet

Edited by owenclass
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Just my luck I guess, disgusting really. Leaving the finals tomorrow alone, Wozniacki is priced way too short for me to be able to do anything in connection with the pre-season bet on Halep. Two factors should be in play - Halep's fitness, which could be an issue given the long match against Kerber, and mental problems of both, as this is as huge as it gets, way too much on the line. Fingers crossed that Halep wins, she certainly deserves it more given the draw she's had to go through.

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Hey Czech Punter what do you think of Halep and Wozniacki going to three sets as it will be surprising that it wont. And what about Halep fitness after that match in the semi final as that must have taken a lot out of her so that's why I think Wozniacki will edge it as she has more variety in her game

 

Simona Halep vs Caroline Wozniacki 

Over 21.5 games 8/11 paddy power

Over 2.5 sets 5/4 paddy power

Wozniacki to win 5/4 paddy power

Wozniacki to win 2-1 11/4 paddy power

Tie break in the first set 5/1 paddy power

Either player to lose the first set and win the match 3/1 paddy power

 

Mens Doubles Final

Oliver Marach and Mate Pavic vs Juan Sebastian Cabal and Robert Farah

Over 22.5 games 4/5 paddy power

Over 2.5 sets 5/4 paddy power

This match is going to be a tough one for each team as they are both so evenly matched and there is not much to separate them in the betting. So I think overs is the best here and three sets is good bet as well

 

Edited by owenclass
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