Australian Open 2018

[WinningTipster]

2 PICKS FOR AUSTRALIAN OPEN:

SEPPI-KARLOVIC OVER 41 GAMES @ 1.78 pinnacle
Karlovic is capable of taking at least one set and making it a long match against favorite Seppi.

KEYS-BOGDAN 2:0 SETS @ 1.44 pinnacle
Generally, a big gap in class between the 2 players. Good 2 matches for Keys in Australian Open.

 

[CzechPunter]

Oh, come on! He always had enough quality to beat the top guys, but the lack of killer instinct has been troubling him all career long. He's not going to win a GS, but he can beat anyone on a good day.

[four-leaf]

1 hour ago, CzechPunter said:

Oh, come on! He always had enough quality to beat the top guys, but the lack of killer instinct has been troubling him all career long. He's not going to win a GS, but he can beat anyone on a good day.

Benny is going to retire this season according to Eurosport commentator Maria Strandlund Tomsvik.

[four-leaf]

Gilles Muller to beat Pablo Carreno Busta at 2.30 with bet365

Gilles should be able to win plenty of cheap points on his serve applying pressure to Pablo to hold serve on his own. I predict that Pablo will get broken by Gilles while Gilles being able to hold his serve most of the times. In the heat it may be crucial for Pablo to hold his serve or he will drop set after set. Hoping for a successful bet this time.

[owenclass]

Grigor Dimitrov vs Andrey Rublev

Rublev to win 7/4 paddy power

Over 38.5 games 4/5 paddy power

I like the look of Rublev as he has the game to make it tough for his opponent who himself had a tough match in the previous round. So Rublev can take advantage and pull off a sort of shock result

Edited January 19, 2018 by owenclass

[four-leaf]

Marta Kostyuk/Elina Svitolina Under 16.5 games at 2.40 Unibet, Under 17.5 games Bet365

Easiest money tonight. Elina will run her race here and won't let the 15 year old get close to breaking her serve. We're talking about oceans of difference between these two right now. Marta can make herself ready to play the junior tournament next week after a successful proweek. Simply, Marta doesn't stand a chance here.

[CzechPunter]

J.Benneteau/F.Fognini - Over 36.5 games at 1.80 with Marathonbet

I can understand why the line is so low here, as it is possible that we are going to see a really straightforward set at some point, but I still think that there's some value on the overs. Fognini is the more talented lad and the rightful favourite, but I can't see Benneteau giving him an inch after that glorious victory over Goffin. Given the quality of the players, I have to take the line regardless of the outcome.

Juan Martin del Potro to beat Tomas Berdych at 1.76 with Marathonbet

Although Juan Martin should've done a better job against Khachanov by beating him in three, I have to go with him in this one. I'm not surprised that Berdych is here, but let's be honest, he is yet to be tested. He lost against Struff in Doha, then shocked everyone by winning the TB Tens, then dropped sets against overawed De Minaur and aging GGL. Unless he starts to have some fitness issues, del Potro should be the winner of this big-hitting battle.

Maximilian Marterer to beat Tennys Sandgren at 1.70 with Marathonbet

This looks more like a Challenger-level match than a match that's taking place quite deep into a Grand Slam, but there you go. In any case, I have a fairly large preference for Marterer here, as he's had to go through some matches to be here. Sandgren, on the other hand, has beaten two walking byes, the only thing that he did was that he didn't fall apart mentally when seeing Wawrinka on the other side of the net. Marterer is a legitimate player for the future imo, so I'll go with him.

[teddybear3011]

What a game between Halep and E.Bouchard , i am all the way for Halep. Let's hope she will kick a** on Saturday as well.

[LePapo]

Is anyone else considering to bet on chung to beat Zverev? 2.60 looks a bit high to me given Zverev is not proven in these conditions and Chung is playing some good tennis recently. And for sunday, odds on Seppi seem a bit generous as well. Edmund played a five setter today (Seppi too but against Karlovic) and took a MTO early in the match. The italian has beaten federer and kyrgios in australia so conditions suit him. He's on good form so honestly I think he has every chance to get past edmund on sunday.

[CzechPunter]

If Zverev plays like he did against Gojo in the first two sets, he's going to win. If not, he's going to struggle. I mean, neither guy has been too impressive recently, Chung hasn't done all that much either, he only beat the out-of-form Isner before the AO and then the tired Medvedev in the previous round. Perhaps slight value on Chung, perhaps.

[DrO]

L.Safarova - K.Pliskova Over 20.5 at 1.65
From my point of view they both play similar tennis. Pretty aggressive,solid service but not so good on return and defense. 
Each of the 7 previous matches went over this line. And line could easily be covered in two sets as well. 
Also - i will definitely try option Tie Break in the match - Yes @3.70 
 

[four-leaf]

Juan Martin Del Potro to beat Tomas Berdych at 1.72 with bet365

Agree with Czech on this one.

Maximilian Marterer to beat Tennys Sandgren at 1.61 with bet365

Agree with Czech here to although both at lower odds.

Marton Fucsovics/Nicolas Kicker under 33.5 games at 1.90 with bet365

This is a must try for me. Marton is by far the better hardcourt player here and he's in good form to. He beat Sam Querrey easily while Nico Kicker only defeated Lukas Lacko in 4. When they met in Pune a few weeks ago Marton won 6-0 6-3 so I fully expect something similar here. Had the opportunity to see Marton play live in Stockholm qualies last season and I can tell you he was in form then and he's hard to break and still in form now. I know I did go against him in Pune when he faced Benoit Paire but he's a different level then Nico. I really don't think Nico will stand a chance here.

Taking these three in a treble at bet365 and hoping for the best.

[LePapo]

2 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

If Zverev plays like he did against Gojo in the first two sets, he's going to win. If not, he's going to struggle. I mean, neither guy has been too impressive recently, Chung hasn't done all that much either, he only beat the out-of-form Isner before the AO and then the tired Medvedev in the previous round. Perhaps slight value on Chung, perhaps.

Yeah spot on, it depends on which zverev turns up the one that played against gojo or the one that played agiasnt fabbiano. Chung beat a tired medvedev under almost 40 degrees so it was a bit expected, maybe after all there's no much value on chung. I'll just watch this match, no bet for me.

[four-leaf]

5 minutes ago, LePapo said:

Yeah spot on, it depends on which zverev turns up the one that played against gojo or the one that played agiasnt fabbiano. Chung beat a tired medvedev under almost 40 degrees so it was a bit expected, maybe after all there's no much value on chung. I'll just watch this match, no bet for me.

Well there's other matches so what are you gonna bet on then?

[owenclass]

Can Gasquet win a set against Federer

[CzechPunter]

Not very likely, Gasquet doesn't seem to be a top player anymore.

[CzechPunter]

DelPo completely lifeless. Fingers crossed for Kerber.

[CzechPunter]

Well, that wasn't good. Marterer fell apart mentally after winning the first set and DelPo was lifeless throughout. Benneteau and Fognini played five sets, however, and there were some subtle pluses in regards to the long-term bets - Thiem/Osaka/Garcia are now all ahead of expectations (Berdych too though, unfortunately, but that's a trade-off I'm happy to accept). Again, fingers crossed for Kerber, she really should deliver, but it's obviously a good idea (if you've bet on her to win the quarter) to watch the match and lay things off in-play if she doesn't turn up.

Regarding tonight, I'm having mixed feelings about going for anything. Kyrgios to beat Dimitrov is the obvious bet, but the price isn't exactly big. Apart from that, I can see all the underdogs having a chance, but there isn't anything outstanding. I'm naturally not expecting Diego to have a chance against Rafa, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him pushing the match over thirty games. As for the women, I was eyeing Allertova in some regard, but the scheduling is a bit of a problem. She'll be on Laver as the very last match by the looks of things, which isn't ideal. I'd much prefer to see her as the first match, not with all the pressure of a night match after Rafa and without a certain start time. So yeah, I just feel like sitting out right now.

As for what I've seen tonight: If Halep is tired after that epic showdown, Osaka might have a fighting chance if she serves well (the odds are a joke though right now, 3.00 or something). Nerves might be an issue though. Berdych played a really good match, but, if the odds for Fognini are right, I'll be pulling the trigger. Chung might also give Djokovic a test, he's a legit guy and he doesn't have a history of choking against big names.

[teddybear3011]

And once again, Halep proved herslef to be one of the best! Winning the match nicely and graciously against Davis. Placed my bet on her, so , Thank you, Simona Halep !

[LePapo]

Impressive from Berdych, although I don't even consider him anymore to go deep in big tournaments he always manages to find a way to reach at least QF/SF in grand slams and it's been 8 years in a row doing so. He has one more match to play to reach QF but it's a winnable match for him so hats off. Thiem has every chance to reach the QF. I think it would be too much for Chung to beat Djokovic. 

Regarding today's matches, I had thought about no tiebreak in nadal-schwartzman however odds are low imo. I imagine PCB run will end today. Kyrgios-Dimitrov is the best match of the day. I was expecting a more convicing performance from Kyrgios in the last round but he couldn't outplay tsonga and beat him with 3 tiebreaks. It should've been a 5 setter but tsonga threw away a 5-2 lead in the last TB. Dimitrov has a good serve so this match might feature a couple of tiebreaks. This should be a close match and I think there's slight value on dimitrov however not worthy enough to risk my money. And finally I'm backing seppi to get past edmund but with low stakes. Edmund physical condition is in doubt after that 5 setter under almost 40 degrees. I was expecting hotter conditions today to bet a bigger amount here but let's just keep it reasonable. Also the 40/1 on Seppi to reach the last four is alive and kicking so no need to overbet on him.

1.5 units on Seppi to beat Edmund at 3.15

 

[owenclass]

Name the finalists

Angelique Kerber vs Caroline Wozniacki 9/1 paddy power

 

If there are two players that are probably the stand out players of the tournament then it is Kerber and Wozniacki. And at these odds then I think it is a great bet

Edited January 21, 2018 by owenclass

[CzechPunter]

Honestly, I don't like any bets for Monday either. Everything looks just about right price-wise, I was hoping to get 2.10 or so for Chung to get a set, but no luck there. I was also hoping for some interesting lines for Fognini/Berdych, but no luck there either . I even looked through the doubles, but everything is sort of meh. So yeah, the only match that I'll be interested in is Kerber-Hsieh. Would be a shocker to see Kerber lose in the form she's in, but stranger things have happened.

[owenclass]

Svitolina, Mertens, Kyrgios Dimitrov, Seppi and Edmund to win a set 7/4 paddy power

 

I'm loving this bet as I can see it happening

[seanV]

3 hours ago, owenclass said:

Name the finalists

Angelique Kerber vs Caroline Wozniacki 9/1 paddy power

 

If there are two players that are probably the stand out players of the tournament then it is Kerber and Wozniacki. And at these odds then I think it is a great bet

 

I think Svitolina will account for Woz quite easily

[LePapo]

F**k Seppi just checked out after the second set. Good run for the outright on him but a bit dissapointed at the same time as he was set and break up in the second set and he was playing better than Edmund. Schwartzman played a good match today just rafa served so well on break points, now against cilic for a place in the last four. For the other round of 16 matches maybe no tiebreaks in Djokovic-Chung is the most attractive bet... but overall prices are right

[CzechPunter]

Yep, one crucial hold in the second and it could've been very different, the mental game completely shifted after the re-break. Once the third set was gone there was no chance.

[four-leaf]

12 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Honestly, I don't like any bets for Monday either. Everything looks just about right price-wise, I was hoping to get 2.10 or so for Chung to get a set, but no luck there. I was also hoping for some interesting lines for Fognini/Berdych, but no luck there either . I even looked through the doubles, but everything is sort of meh. So yeah, the only match that I'll be interested in is Kerber-Hsieh. Would be a shocker to see Kerber lose in the form she's in, but stranger things have happened.

I think Caroline Garcia is an interesting underdog as well as Naomi Osaka and I think Karolina Pliskova looks spot on to nick a straight sets win so those in a treble looks nice.

[four-leaf]

Challenger Newport beach qualifiers

Dennis Novikov to beat Raymond Sarmiento at 1.61 with bet365

Dennis was really good against Elias Ymer in Aussie open qualies and he should have to mutch for Raymond.

JC Aragone to beat Luke Bambridge at 1.53 with bet365

JC played well yesterday when he beat Dominik Koepfer. In third set he was down double break 3-0 but came back and in the tie-break he was down 3-0 again but came back and won. He should beat Luke to.

Brayden Schnur to beat (-1.5 sets) Guillermo Olaso at 1.72 with bet365

Brayden was crap yesterday even though he beat Patrik Kypson in straight sets but he's been doing good in the beginning of this season and Guillermo is nothing special really even if he beat Ante Pavic in straight sets yesterday. Should be an easy win for Brayden here. Didn't see Guillermo play when he lost to Christopher Eubanks in straight sets in USA F1 futures but he lost badly and he's never done anything special on hardcourts on the challenger tour and should be losing this match. 

[CzechPunter]

Maybe it's me getting old, but I'm placing a 3pts bet on Hsieh at 8.70 with Marathonbet now. I didn't like the potential payouts at 4.00-5.00, but I don't mind them now. Unless Kerber retires in the first set, it will be a nice clean profit.

[CzechPunter]

I might have lost three points there, but, since that loss allowed me to avoid a minor heart attack, I'm not too bothered. In fact, it's the first point of the season at which I'm satisfied, as I'm +26.9pts for the event and +5.2pts overall. Hopefully, things aren't going to go straight downhill from here, but let's see.

Grigor Dimitrov (-1.5 sets) to beat Kyle Edmund at 1.60 with Unibet

Honestly, this should be the end of the road for Edmund, who was lucky to draw Basilashvili and Seppi in the previous rounds, as both managed to trouble him just a little bit before self-destructing on their own. He did win against Anderson, which needs to be respected, and his forehand will be able to do some damage against Dimitrov, but, when it comes to the mental game, I'm not sure that Edmund is there yet. This will be his first real big match here and it's going to come against a guy that outplayed Kyrgios in four sets with only one minor slip at the very end. 

Elina Svitolina (-4.5) to beat Elise Mertens at 1.96 with Marathonbet

Going against Mertens again, as she seems to be going in the opposite direction than Svitolina. Svitolina played an absolute cracker of a set against Allertova in the previous round, looking sharp and focused, while Mertens had serious issues against both Cornet and Martic. Not too surprising given how many matches she's played lately, but the issue is that she might just be way too tired to be competitive in this one. She doesn't have any weapons for winning cheap points against Svitolina, she doesn't have any experience, and she lost to her very quickly last year in a much less consequential match. Unless Svitolina reverts to her performances from R1 and R2, this shouldn't be too hard.