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Hi Guys! My first post here, tried to do this on the Betfair forum but I'm not active enough there to post.

Anyway to business-was hoping for some advice/calculations for my current bet.

Beginning of the season I placed a season acca with Hills on the following:

City to win Prem : 2/1

Wolves to win Championship: 7/1

Wigan to win League 1: 7/1

Luton to win League 2: 9/2

Arsenal to win Europa: 7//1

France to win World Cup: 7/1

I bet £10, total return £619520

Now looking at the all the league bets I'm in a great spot,  I smashed the prices early and everyone is odds on ( City=1/100, Wolves=1/8, Wigan 1/3, Luton 1/5)

Arsenal is dodgy but I'm in with a shout, if it somehow comes in I can obviously lay France big for the world cup etc.

Hills is currently offering me a cash-out of  £458 (hilarious really) What do you think the bet is currently worth/odds of this coming in as things stands?

Also what would you do in my situation, do you lay/ back anything, e.g. Blackburn to win League 1 etc????

Any advice would be greatly appreciated! Either way every weekend is currently proving to be a fun sweat :)

I have attached the bet as a screenshot in case anyone doubts the story!

 

Thanks

Camden Guy

seasonbet.png

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Golly . Well this is my bread and butter and one of the great sadnesses of my current life is thst I only have a few people to discuss seriously outright accas with.

I do such bets all the time and they are without doubt the easiest way to make money from betting on soccer . If anyone disagrees with that don't worry because it's my avowed aim to make it far better known over the next 4 years or so .

Okie dokie .

Firstly ,if WHill were to offer £1000s for such a position anyone could make a living placing many such bets in December  and cashing out in late Feb early March. So they can't really.

Secondly,if you are thinking of laying France if Arsenal and Wigan should win why did you put them in the bet ? 

Thirdly , the main reason you might want to bet Blackburn is in order to hedge your cash out amount because obviously if Wigans odds getter bigger your cash out gets smaller .

However since you have no intention of cashing out then hedging  Blackburn right now might not be worth it until Arsenal progress further in the `Europa league and you can see who they get in say the QFs.

I also have some strong positions on Wigan but I've been partly hedging them by betting Blackburn for top 2 but their price in that market is too low now and so I will be betting on Blackburn.

But I will be betting them in other accumulators rather than as a single .

Anyway you might want to consider doing a double on Blackburn and Atletico Madrid for the EL.

If Atleitico are kod then of course Arsenals price falls and they will be favourites.

While if Blackburn dont win then thsts good for you too of course .

Good luck.

 

 

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@moggis

Thanks for such a detailed repsonse Moggis good to have some moral support.

Unfortunately WH are known scum on their cash-out giving WAY below your true equity. Bet 365 would be something like £7k in the current position, with the true value of the bet being somewhere near £10k. Why I bet with WH I don't know as their cash-out policy is a disgrace and known amongst punters.

If all league bets come in + Arsenal are you telling me you would let it ride and not lay France???? It would be the sensible thing to do to guarantee money on both sides.

Yea as you say, no intention of cashing out and with the 'likelihood' of Wolves, Luton maintaining their lead (though of course this changes weekend by weekend) I'll be doing several doubles with Blackburn + EUROPE LEAGUE WINNER (ARSENAL, NAPOLI, AT MADRID)

League 2 is the scary one. Wigan have an amazing defence but can lack a bit of fire power and Blackburn have been on a great run. Wigan play in the FA CUP this weekend, so gap could be narrowed to 2 points, then they both play on Tuesday where Blackburn have a chance to then overtake if Wigan lose. Getting towards the business end now and every match is huge!

Thanks for the words, it's nice to know someone is watching over :)

Good luck with your own punting and let's see how it all rides out....

 

 

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@Camden 1984

Thanks for  the kind words ,

I don't want to say anything about Bet 365s cash out policy so Iwill just repeat that were  William Hill to offer several  £1000 s on bets like this a person could make a living simply placing outright accas  in December and cashing out in February . (Of course the odds on this specific bet would be much lower in December but you could increase the stake if you were confident you could get it back in February). 

It would be interesting to know how much WHill need to offer you in order for you to cash out ? And why didn't you place it with bet 365 then if you knew WHills cash outs are bad ?

I wasn't saying I wouldn't hedge France if the rest of the bet came in I'm saying I wouldn't have bet on France at all . (Or I would have bet a lower stake and done France Germany and Brazil.)

The fact thst you are seemingly definitely intent on betting against `France if the rest of the bet comes in suggests you'd have been better off not including them . (Although their odds seem to have shortened since you placed the bet)

I'm also a bit surprised that ,if you are now going to bet on Blackburn ,that you didn't do so before when they were more than 6-1 but no mstter.

Im almost certainly going to make a profit on my bets this season because I'm constantly trading these markets but also because it's been very straightforward this year with Wolves ,Luton ,City ,Wigan ,Blackburn and now Tranmere finally perhaps coming good plus the usual suspects in Europe . I think I actually got 2-5 Bayern Munich in a couple of bets ,lol. 

Every week there are opportunities and this is a very very entertaining way to bet and it astonishes me  that 99% of gamblers never do such a bet during the season ,only at the beginning when it's far far harder usually .

So far as Blackburn is concerned up til a couple of weeks ago I thought they were going to win but Im increasingly impressed with Wigan . It could depend on who wins their meeting in a few weeks .

Anyway good luck once again. Be funny if England won the World Cup though.

I can see the headline now 

Punter loses out on £600,000 as England and £200 million Kane Shock the World :)

 

Edited by moggis
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I'm not sure you understand how a cash out policy works the bookie will offer a cash out relative to the equity of your bet. Bet 365 and the rest will offer a cash out 10-15% less than the true equity of your bet Hills offer something like 20%, even if they gave the equivalent equity of a BET 365 in terms of equity it doesn't guarantee a profit lol the bet still needs to become profitable over time.

 You would either be very bold or very stupid to not lay France when you have 600k riding.

Good luck either way

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On 26 January 2018 at 9:46 AM, Camden1984 said:

I'm not sure you understand how a cash out policy works the bookie will offer a cash out relative to the equity of your bet. Bet 365 and the rest will offer a cash out 10-15% less than the true equity of your bet Hills offer something like 20%, even if they gave the equivalent equity of a BET 365 in terms of equity it doesn't guarantee a profit lol the bet still needs to become profitable over time.

 You would either be very bold or very stupid to not lay France when you have 600k riding.

Good luck either way

Hi,I'm sorry but I wasn't sure if this comment is aimed at me or not but on double checking I think it might well be so I'm replying on that basis .

The reason I wasn't sure is because I dont really know what I've said to elicit your comment .

I realise thst bookies only offer cash outs that are less than the equity of the bets. 

It's my belief that its actually not difficult to place accumulators at certain points in the season that improve in the short term.

Its on that basis that I claim that if William Hill offered £1000s for your £10 bet people could make a living simply placing accumulators  in December and cashing out in late February .

Im not claiming you could just place one accumulator and that one bet would be somehow guaranteed to improve rather that most of the time you could place quite a lot of accumulators enough of which would improve .

This is based on the idea (I think it's probably a fact but I will say idea ) that most teams that are doing well in December ( for example) tend to carry on doing well for several weeks at least.

Yes of course you'd either be bold or stupid not to lay France . Have I said anything to give the impression that I don't think that ?

Hopefully I won't need luck . :)

Edited by moggis
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  • StevieDay1983 changed the title to Huge Acca! Looking Good!
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I don't bet the amounts I used to a couple of years ago..Brexit finished me off :lol..

Do enjoy season long bets though as it gives you teams to follow throughout the season, only ever do them as singles. Think it's hard enough predicting one outcome let alone two or more..

I've got Luton to go up, think there's very little chance of them winning the league, really stumbling over the line, due to inconsistency of sides around them they should get enough points to go up. My bets on Burnley and Brighton to get relegated not looking too strong though..:lol

Took Bayern and Barca to win the CL when they were both 6/1 which is looking decent after the draw.

You've had a good ride out of a tenner though..If I was looking at 6 bets though I would certainly want to bet 4-fold and 5-fold though, just so unlikely all are going to come in.

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II've been following your bet this season via this thread. I am a LUTON fan, although I generally post about Brighton as I have a season ticket there. I have 2 fourfold, in a 5 team Accra, and have LUTON to get promoted rather than win. They have been too inconsistent this season, and it will be typical if they let your Accra down. Accrington have taken everyone by surprise in L2, but let's hope they have a dip in form over the last few games and LUTON clinch the title. 

Good luck, and thanks for sharing your story. It makes interesting reading.

 

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