FA Cup Predictions > Jan 5th - 8th

[StevieDay1983]

It's the FA Cup 3rd Round coming up in 2018. Always an exciting way to start the new year. A wealth of intriguing ties for us to muse over. Take a look at the odds listed above and give us some tips you come up with so we can all share from the knowledge base of this whole forum! 

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[waynecoyne]

Sheffield wednesday have a derby v Sheffield united (the following Friday) which is more important than the game v Carlisle.

the squad are down to the bare bones and the team for the cup game will likely include a few kids.

Carlisle can be backed at 41/10 and look good value.

[malabgd]

Liverpool FC v Everton FC

Liverpool FC: Philippe Coutinho (14/7 m), Mohamed Salah (21/17 f, top scorer), Alberto Moreno (12/0 d), Daniel Sturridge (9/2 f), Jordan Henderson (16/1 m, captain), Marko Grujić (3/0 m), Nathaniel Clyne (0/0 d), Adam Bogdan (0/0 g)

Everton FC: Idrissa Gueye (20/1 m, doubtful), Michael Keane (16/0 d), Leighton Baines (13/2 d), Maarten Stekelenburg (0/0 g), Ross Barkley (0/0 m), Seamus Coleman (0/0 d), Ramiro Funes Mori (0/0 d)

 

Manchester United v Derby County

Manchester United: Ashley Young (17/2 m, suspended), Antonio Valencia (18/2 d), Zlatan Ibrahimović (5/0 f), Eric Bailly (8/1 d), Michael Carrick (0/0 m, captain)

Derby County: Tom Lawrence (20/2 m), Joe Ledley (15/1 m), Bradley Johnson (21/4 m)(all doubtful)

 

Daily updated injuries and suspensions information from more then 100 football leagues and competitions worldwide at: www.injuriesandsuspensions.com

[Magic0024]

Football Facts and Streaks regarding FA Cup  

Man Utd have won 83% of their last 6 games against Derby in all competitions.
Liverpool are undefeated in their last 20 home games against Everton in all competitions.
Man Utd have scored at least 4 goals in their last 3 home games against Derby in all competitions.

You can find interesting 33 Football Betting Streaks for 05.01.2018 on this link ... http://eurofootballrumours.com/football-facts-streaks-05-01-2018

[andrewcalo]

Burnley +3 against a tired Man City side looks a great banker. 1.55 with my crap bookie. 

Man.City wil second string it and Burnley will go.all out. 

City will be lucky to win this, let alone get a two goal difference.

[andrewcalo]

Burnley +3 against a tired Man City side looks a great banker. 1.55 with my crap bookie. 

Man.City wil second string it and Burnley will go.all out. 

City will be lucky to win this, let alone get a two goal difference.

 

I think the priceo on Swansea to win is laughable. We do well in the cups.

The score recently in the Spurs match (2-0) was not an accurate representation of how well we played. The officiating in this match was some of the worst I've ever seen. 

We will get at least a draw against an overconfident Wolves. The draw no bet looks tasty at a massive 3.7.

Edited January 5, 2018 by andrewcalo

[StevieDay1983]

Liverpool vs Everton

The combination of this being a Merseyside derby and an FA Cup clash means it's sensible to back goals, goals, and more bloody goals. Interestingly, Everton haven't beaten Liverpool since 17th October, 2010. That did surprise me. The last time these two sides met in the FA Cup was 14th April, 2012. On that occasion, Liverpool prevailed 2-1 winners. I expect something similar here. The Toffees have come out of their honeymoon period with Allardyce and it will be tough for them at Anfield. My only concerns are the absence of Coutinho and Salah for Liverpool and the possible inclusion of Tosun for Everton. I think that's a really shrewd signing by Allardyce and exactly what they need. I still think Liverpool should have just about enough. Especially if Van Dijk is in to solidify their back-line.

Over 2.5 Goals Scored @ 1.80 with 188Bet

Over 10 Corners @ 1.73 with Betfair

[StevieDay1983]

Cardiff vs Mansfield

It's been a tough Christmas period for us Cardiff fans. Our squad is obliterated by injury. We've been missing the spine of our team in Morrison, Gunnarsson, and Zohore. Hopefully, Warnock should play the reserves as expected to give those injuries a chance to recover. It's been rumoured that a flu bug has swept the camp so we could see a few youngsters thrown in. My concern is that Warnock only sees the FA Cup as a distraction as we push for promotion. We have been undone by a number of lower placed league teams in the cups in recent seasons. Bristol Rovers, MK Dons, and Shrewsbury have all knocked us out in the domestic cups recently. I'm not sure Mansfield will beat us but it wouldn't surprise me if they did. We should still have a starting XI that includes Lee Camp, Jazz Richards, Greg Halford, Anthony Pilkington, and Omar Bogle so plenty of experience. That might just see us through. Mansfield could be worth a handicap bet though.

Mansfield +1.25 AH @ 1.66 with BetVictor

BTTS @ 1.91 with William Hill

[Neubs]

Today i like AHC on Derby. ManU little bit out of form and even if Lukaku are fit for today - they maybe play not with the best 11 - Derby Coach Rowett said that this is perfect "Test" for there own Ambitions if they want to play PL next Year. So i think they will play with best 11 and also i like here the Fact, that i like Derby´s Football more when they are the Dog or not so the clear Favorite.

 

Derby AHC +1.5 @ 2.20 2/10 bet365

[Jamesboaz]

Actually both matches look like they will have over 2.5 goals. 

[Tiffy]

Newcastle V Luton

Luton are seasoned cup giant killers, and are flying high in L2. I can't see them getting thrashed by a rotated Newcastle side. LUTON will be cheered on by 7,500 fans who are making the long trip up north. I think this game has the potential to see BTTS/O2.5 & a replay under lights at Kenilworth Rd. I think if Newcastle win, it will only be by a goal.

LUTON +1.5@ 1.82

 

[Tiffy]

@StevieDay1983

Loving the corner bets now are you?

Surprisingly, Liverpool didn't even have a corner in the first half, and there were only 7 in total (4-3)

 

[RealUnited]

Thanks Arkadi Manucharov and thanks to Sporita. The over 2.5 was a great bet, I've seen my winnings really increase since joining.

[Magic0024]

Football Facts and Streaks regarding FA Cup  

Ipswich have failed to win their last 12 games in FA Cup.
Rochdale have kept a clean sheet in 83% of their last 6 games in FA Cup.
Chelsea have won 83% of their last 12 games against Norwich in all competitions.
There have been over 2.5 goals scored in Sheff Wed's last 7 games in FA Cup.
QPR have failed to win 93% of their last 27 games in FA Cup.

You can find interesting 66 Football Betting Streaks for 06.01.2018 on this link ... http://eurofootballrumours.com/football-facts-streaks-06-01-2018

 

[allthethings]

Fascinating odds movement today, dunno if anyone saw it. When I first looked at the overs in the Man Utd match, the odds on offer for o2.5 was 1.8. By the time it kicked off, the odds on offer were o3 for 1.8. The odds in the Liverpool match started at about 1.9 for o3, ended at 1.7 for o2.5.

So of course the match with the money flooding toward overs finished under, and vice versa.

For this round, over the past seven seasons, dogs in the 3.0 to 5.0 range tend to draw when they get a result, whereas those in the 5.0 to 8.0 range tend to win when they get a result. One thing that is hurting my brain is that the past three season have seen those in the 4.0 to 5.0 range have been winning rather than drawing. Last season Derby and Leicester won away, the previous year Burnley and Walsall, Sheffield Utd in 2015.

One thing I will say is that the odds already reflect sides that have recent success, like Swans. Rarely do these tendencies carry over from season to season...you have much better luck selecting a side that comes seemingly out of nowhere.

Regardless...tomorrow looking at Peterborough, Wigan and Dons away, Carlisle and Coventry at home, among a few others. I'll pull the trigger close to kickoff after seeing where the money goes...typically I do the opposite.

[andrewcalo]

"For this round, over the past seven seasons, dogs in the 3.0 to 5.0 range tend to draw when they get a result, whereas those in the 5.0 to 8.0 range tend to win when they get a result. One thing that is hurting my brain is that the past three season have seen those in the 4.0 to 5.0 range have been winning rather than drawing. Last season Derby and Leicester won away, the previous year Burnley and Walsall, Sheffield Utd in 2015."

@allthethings - one reason is because since the last 2/3 seasons fixtures have congested a lot - teams don't want to face a replay, and go all out for the win. If you look at the fixtures you mentioned, the dogs won because they are classically counterattacking teams - Leicester, Burnley, Walsall...

 

 

[StevieDay1983]

12 hours ago, Tiffy said:

@StevieDay1983

Loving the corner bets now are you?

Surprisingly, Liverpool didn't even have a corner in the first half, and there were only 7 in total (4-3)

 

Haha, learned from the best mate!... Well, I didn't because the bet didn't come in but yeah, got to love a corners bet if nothing else stands out. I was tempted to back Van Dijk to score but wasn't 100% sure he would start. Always worth backing a debutant to score or a player playing against his old club to score. Or Shane Long scoring against Cardiff!

[Tiffy]

1 hour ago, StevieDay1983 said:

Haha, learned from the best mate!... Well, I didn't because the bet didn't come in but yeah, got to love a corners bet if nothing else stands out. I was tempted to back Van Dijk to score but wasn't 100% sure he would start. Always worth backing a debutant to score or a player playing against his old club to score. Or Shane Long scoring against Cardiff!

Well it looks like you are following in my footsteps, picking losers, haha

May fancy QPR on the corners today though. 

[Bronxie]

Going for some BTTS YES accys where the side from a higher league are away from home:

The early KO double at 4.53

Blackburn/Hull, Bolton/Huddersfield & Carlisle/Sheff Wed at 5.50

Coventry/Stoke, Exeter/West Brom & Fulham/Southampton at 5.25

Stevenage/Reading, Yeovil/Bradford & Wycombe/Preston at 5.18

Wolves/Swansea & Norwich/Chelsea at 3.60

...and the 3PM KO ten-fold at 300/1 

Edited January 6, 2018 by Bronxie

[Bronxie]

Just realised Boro/Sunderland doesn't fit the criteria any longer. Oops. Doing better than the one that does, mind.

Any other mistakes in there?

[Neubs]

20 hours ago, Neubs said:

Today i like AHC on Derby. ManU little bit out of form and even if Lukaku are fit for today - they maybe play not with the best 11 - Derby Coach Rowett said that this is perfect "Test" for there own Ambitions if they want to play PL next Year. So i think they will play with best 11 and also i like here the Fact, that i like Derby´s Football more when they are the Dog or not so the clear Favorite.

 

Derby AHC +1.5 @ 2.20 2/10 >bet365

2 Late Goals....  Bet lost...

[allthethings]

14 hours ago, allthethings said:

Fascinating odds movement today, dunno if anyone saw it. When I first looked at the overs in the Man Utd match, the odds on offer for o2.5 was 1.8. By the time it kicked off, the odds on offer were o3 for 1.8. The odds in the Liverpool match started at about 1.9 for o3, ended at 1.7 for o2.5.

So of course the match with the money flooding toward overs finished under, and vice versa.

For this round, over the past seven seasons, dogs in the 3.0 to 5.0 range tend to draw when they get a result, whereas those in the 5.0 to 8.0 range tend to win when they get a result. One thing that is hurting my brain is that the past three season have seen those in the 4.0 to 5.0 range have been winning rather than drawing. Last season Derby and Leicester won away, the previous year Burnley and Walsall, Sheffield Utd in 2015.

One thing I will say is that the odds already reflect sides that have recent success, like Swans. Rarely do these tendencies carry over from season to season...you have much better luck selecting a side that comes seemingly out of nowhere.

Regardless...tomorrow looking at Peterborough, Wigan and Dons away, Carlisle and Coventry at home, among a few others. I'll pull the trigger close to kickoff after seeing where the money goes...typically I do the opposite.

Just a great day, as things broke right everywhere. The 5.0 to 8.0 wins included three I took (Peterborough, Dons and Notts County) and one I didn't (Coventry), and the 3.0 to 5.0 draws included three I took (Stevenage, Peterborough and Carlisle) out of seven, with odds around 3.4 to 3.6 for X. In all, finished 6-8 for +15 units in FAC. Thanks where they're due to Andrew C, who gave me the push toward the historical draw in the latter case and away from the recent wins.

[Magic0024]

Football Facts and Streaks regarding FA Cup

Arsenal have won 83% of their last 6 games in FA Cup.
Tottenham have won 75% of their last 8 competitive games.
Wimbledon have lost 56% of their last 9 trips away in all competitions.
West Ham have lost 25% of their last 8 competitive games.
36% of Leeds’ conceded goals occurred after the 75th minute.

You can find interesting 63 Football Betting Streaks for 07.01.2018 on this link ... http://eurofootballrumours.com/football-facts-streaks-07-01-2018

[Tiffy]

On 05/01/2018 at 10:48 PM, Tiffy said:

Newcastle V Luton

Luton are seasoned cup giant killers, and are flying high in L2. I can't see them getting thrashed by a rotated Newcastle side. LUTON will be cheered on by 7,500 fans who are making the long trip up north. I think this game has the potential to see BTTS/O2.5 & a replay under lights at Kenilworth Rd. I think if Newcastle win, it will only be by a goal.

LUTON +1.5@ 1.82

 

A couple of goalkeeping errors & the crossbar made it a flattering result for the Geordies. Good to see LUTON give it a real good go, it will boost their confidence for the title run in now!

[Tiffy]

15 hours ago, allthethings said:

Just a great day, as things broke right everywhere. The 5.0 to 8.0 wins included three I took (Peterborough, Dons and Notts County) and one I didn't (Coventry), and the 3.0 to 5.0 draws included three I took (Stevenage, Peterborough and Carlisle) out of seven, with odds around 3.4 to 3.6 for X. In all, finished 6-8 for +15 units in FAC. Thanks where they're due to Andrew C, who gave me the push toward the historical draw in the latter case and away from the recent wins.

Brilliant stuff @allthethings, it's great when it comes together like that.