The Stats Don't Lie

[robstars7]

Hello Everyone,

Thought id sign up on here as its the first time iv tried to make a real go at being profitable at football betting. Im only interested in betting on football as it is my passion and it would be great to be able to bet on games and actually win some money. Im big on stats and not luck and in the few months I have been betting on football seriously iv come up with some systems for btts, under and over 2.5 goals, and a team to score 2+ goals. There based on average stats of the league (fts, cs etc ) with also some research done on injuries through different apps.

It would be great if i could get some help on here for other successful bettors who have been doing it longer and are more successful than me. I currently do 2% of my br per bet and try to keep to double and trebles. I dont focus on too many leagues but when looking for goals I like to bet on english very low divisions, A league, eredivse and jupiter league and the turkish super liga.

I have changed my Btts to score system from the below results and so far I have 7 correct selections out of 11. I would love to work closely with other memebers discussing win rates and systems and potential games coming up etc. I deposited £200 about 2 months ago and due to bad results/poor br management I went down to £50 which is where im currently at. I feel I have improved and have started working on my mental game (ex poker player so i realise how key this is when there is varience involved). 

Thinking of starting a whats app group to discuss football/games/selections. If anyone would be interested let me know.  I will Likely post maybe once or twice a week with results, thoughts and strategys. Will try to post my selections where possible. 

I track all my results and currently my selections over a small sample are the following: 

Bet Type	Placed	Wins	wr %
2+ goals	24	16	67%
U/2.5 goals	14	8	57%
Match R	5	1	20%
BTTS	36	19	53%
O/2.5 goals	14	7	50%
SINGLES	4	1	25%
DOUBLES	17	6	35%
TREBLES	12	2	17%
4 TEAM	3	0	0%
5 TEAM	1	0	0%

[Sir Puntalot]

36 minutes ago, robstars7 said:

Hello Everyone,

Thought id sign up on here as its the first time iv tried to make a real go at being profitable at football betting. Im only interested in betting on football as it is my passion and it would be great to be able to bet on games and actually win some money. Im big on stats and not luck and in the few months I have been betting on football seriously iv come up with some systems for btts, under and over 2.5 goals, and a team to score 2+ goals. There based on average stats of the league (fts, cs etc ) with also some research done on injuries through different apps.

It would be great if i could get some help on here for other successful bettors who have been doing it longer and are more successful than me. I currently do 2% of my br per bet and try to keep to double and trebles. I dont focus on too many leagues but when looking for goals I like to bet on english very low divisions, A league, eredivse and jupiter league and the turkish super liga.

I have changed my Btts to score system from the below results and so far I have 7 correct selections out of 11. I would love to work closely with other memebers discussing win rates and systems and potential games coming up etc. I deposited £200 about 2 months ago and due to bad results/poor br management I went down to £50 which is where im currently at. I feel I have improved and have started working on my mental game (ex poker player so i realise how key this is when there is varience involved). 

Thinking of starting a whats app group to discuss football/games/selections. If anyone would be interested let me know.  I will Likely post maybe once or twice a week with results, thoughts and strategys. Will try to post my selections where possible. 

I track all my results and currently my selections over a small sample are the following: 

Bet Type	Placed	Wins	wr %
2+ goals	24	16	67%
U/2.5 goals	14	8	57%
Match R	5	1	20%
BTTS	36	19	53%
O/2.5 goals	14	7	50%
SINGLES	4	1	25%
DOUBLES	17	6	35%
TREBLES	12	2	17%
4 TEAM	3	0	0%
5 TEAM	1	0	0%

 to PL @robstars7   

Well done on the results so far, but without wanting to burst your bubble, the sample isn't small, it's absolutely tiny! You'd need well over 2000 bets to know where you are, and even then it would have a 5% variable swing.

Regarding a whatsapp group - there's no need for that, that's why we have the forum and you'll only limit the input it receives, rather than get a bucketload here.  

[robstars7]

On 12/26/2017 at 11:17 PM, Sir Puntalot said:

 to PL @robstars7   

Well done on the results so far, but without wanting to burst your bubble, the sample isn't small, it's absolutely tiny! You'd need well over 2000 bets to know where you are, and even then it would have a 5% variable swing.

Regarding a whatsapp group - there's no need for that, that's why we have the forum and you'll only limit the input it receives, rather than get a bucketload here.  

I wondered what the sample size needed would be but its hard to get anything from w% without working out average price and then seeing what you would need to b/e or be profitable. Im fairly happy with how things are going its slow but then i know 95% of people betting on football lose apparently! 

 

[Sir Puntalot]

1 minute ago, robstars7 said:

I wondered what the sample size needed would be but its hard to get anything from w% without working out average price and then seeing what you would need to b/e or be profitable. Im fairly happy with how things are going its slow but then i know 95% of people betting on football lose apparently! 

 

Not just football @robstars7 - the actual stats are 98% of people who bet lose money, and it's probably closer to 99% these days.  #top1%  

[robstars7]

So I haven't posted much as I been away over the new years up in newcastle where I used to live. Still managed to study some form and get some bets in. Saturday I had a very good day and Monday very poor. Now im back in london I will be posting bets more on the day and some updates.

My Btts strategy is reach close to 70% since I changed slight things in the system. Put the rest of my december records on the spreadsheet but then must of saved januarys over it !!! at least that was just the best and I got some stats down.

Todays fixtures looked exciting on paper but closer look didnt match up with much gone for some cyprus league games which is unusual as not many goals usually in these but good value on the prices and good percentages.  Also had my first venture into corners as I couldnt find anything in the games and fulham and southampton have good stats at home + palace and especially ipswich concede a lot of corners away.

Treble: 

Clyde v annan atheletic BTTS ....13/18 btts...72% Grade A....should be 1.38>> 1.57 =+0.19 

Doxa v Famagusta BTTS.... 12/16....75% Grade A ... should be 1.33>>1.92= +0.59

Achnas v Ermis BTTS... 11/16...69% Grade B... should be 1.45>>1.86=+0.41

Double:

Fulham v Ipswich ...Home team over 6.5 corners. 15/24. 63% Grade B.....Should be 1.6>>1.89 =+0.29

Southampton v Palace...Home team over 6.5 corners 12/21 57% grade C.... Should be 1.75>>>2.0 = +0.25

 

Week 1 (11-17^th december) :

Bets Placed: 17

Bets Won: 5

SR: 29%

Actual profit.: +3 points

 

Week 2 (18th-24th december)

Bets placed: 17

Bets won: 4

SR: 24%

P/L on week : - 1-2 pts

 

Week 3 (25^th-31st december)

Bets place: 11

Bets won: 4

SR: 36%

P/L on week: +6.66 pts

 

December Summary: (11-31th)

Bets Placed: 45 bets

Bets Won: 13

SR: 29%

P/L On Month: +8pts 

Not Amazing but heading in the right direction at least.

[robstars7]

UPDATE

Just an update as I haven't updated in a while.  January has had a pretty awful start, only wining 4 bets out of 23 which is very poor considering some were doubles.  At the start of the year I was betting on btts, 2+ goals etc in games in leagues where its not known to have lots of goals, and even though I was only finding a game here and there with the system....it did not turn out well. Iv also had a shocker with recording my results as I somehow saved january 3 days results over the whole of decembers stats, which is gutting. I will have to go through my bet history and list it all again when im on night shift within the next 3 days lol 

So.... finding myself going back and forth with my balance and eventually ending up pretty much where I started. Not sure why, maybe too many bets, maybe not enough mix in the markets im betting on? maybe the prices are too short?  Its got me thinking... does anyone do double that has to be a minimum price? for instance the double has to be at least 3/1? would be interested to know as mathematically you obv have to win less.....but then im sure if prices are that price then most the matches would not work with my system in identifying matches.

Also noticed corners seem to have decent odds for a market I  feel would be fairly evenly matched. Anyone have success betting on corners?

Again id love to hear some feedback or work closer with someone else putting a lot of time into trying to make a profit out of this crazy game. GL everyone !

 

 

[Rivilearner]

@robstars7-Whats your strategy on BTTS would like to test it

 

Edited May 4, 2018 by Rivilearner

[robstars7]

15 hours ago, Rivilearner said:

@robstars7-Whats your strategy on BTTS would like to test it

 

TBH im only just starting a new system for btts. Things are going good with o 2.5 & home team to score 2+ goals but "no bttts" isnt going well and btts is hit and miss.

Im losing motivation, I dont think football betting can be profitable from just a system really

[Sir Puntalot]

@robstars7 - I've moved this to our systems and strategy forum, so our systems dudes can take a look.  

Take a look at other threads here and you'll see there are success stories.  

[Rivilearner]

@robstars7-soccer betting in general isn't easy. 

what strategy do you use for o2.5 and home to score 2

[robstars7]

5 hours ago, Sir Puntalot said:

@robstars7 - I've moved this to our systems and strategy forum, so our systems dudes can take a look.  

Take a look at other threads here and you'll see there are success stories.  

Like whos? Iv tried looking at a few but not a lot of people have a like regular long term diary with winning in, so if you could recommend whos is a good read that would be good

[robstars7]

1 hour ago, Rivilearner said:

@robstars7-soccer betting in general isn't easy. 

what strategy do you use for o2.5 and home to score 2

uses soccerstats.com. focuses on the home team and average goals for 2.5..... and for home team 2+ it focuses on fts percentage and average goals

[Rivilearner]

@robstars7- i know soccerstats and i love their point per game.

so specifically how do you look at them to generate prediction for team score 2+ and o2.5, can you be more elaborate so i can get back to you on this system.

Thanks

[robstars7]

15 hours ago, Rivilearner said:

@robstars7- i know soccerstats and i love their point per game.

so specifically how do you look at them to generate prediction for team score 2+ and o2.5, can you be more elaborate so i can get back to you on this system.

Thanks

Yeah I like soccerstats, by far the best site. 

For 2+ it has to be a home team. They have to be favourites. fts beats average, and the average goals (goals score home team+goals conceded away team) has to be over 3.0. Also 2 out of the last 5 games they have to have scored 2 at home and the away team must of conded 2 away....I then make sure the price has value by finding out how many games home team have scored 2+ at home ^& and how many games the away team have conceded 2 or more.

 

E.G. home team scored 2+ 8/13 games.... away team conceded 2+ 5/13 = 13/26 ...26/13= 2.0 (so price has to beat 2.0)

For 2.5 its home team has to have above average 2.5 games, and below average c/s

away team needs above average 2.5 games and either c/s or fts beating average.

Then it works on some average goals stuff.

[Rivilearner]

@robstars7- This sounds interesting i have to look more into it.

Have you tried looking at average goals score in the last 5 games for home team plus last 5 games score for the away team add it together if its above 2.5 I consider it as above game, this is the strategy i use for finding over 2.5 or better still over 1.5. Though as a precaution i look at the away team goals receive if its less than 1.00 i skip it.

moreover i still use it for finding 1x2, if the home team is better paced in current position and has better score average last 5 games H & A I tend to pick home team also vice vasa away team.

Regards

 

[robstars7]

On 5/6/2018 at 4:29 PM, Rivilearner said:

@robstars7- This sounds interesting i have to look more into it.

Have you tried looking at average goals score in the last 5 games for home team plus last 5 games score for the away team add it together if its above 2.5 I consider it as above game, this is the strategy i use for finding over 2.5 or better still over 1.5. Though as a precaution i look at the away team goals receive if its less than 1.00 i skip it.

moreover i still use it for finding 1x2, if the home team is better paced in current position and has better score average last 5 games H & A I tend to pick home team also vice vasa away team.

Regards

 

No I look over the season, not last 5. Dont see anything that suggest last 5 has that much of an impact.

What systems do you use?

[robstars7]

Mid Month Stats:

Bet Type	Placed	Wins	wr %
BTTS	32	13	41%
O/2.5 goals	26	17	65%
Nbtts	11	4	36%
2+ goals Home Team	16	7	44%
Overall:	85	41	48%
SINGLES	3	2	67%
DOUBLES	19	4	21%
TREBLES	14	1	7%
4 TEAM	1	0

 

Not a Great month so far and in the red currently. Been given optimism by having the same o2.5 goals strategy for a couple of month and it getting 60%+ so far both month, so a system im confident of. 

BTTS had been a problem but changed the system a lot the start of this week as i noticed a trend with matches with bigger prices. so far 5/7 correct and matches are mostly 1.95+ in price... so hopeful for this system as having bad results for btts has irritated me for some time.

also tweaked the 2+ goals for home team slightly, even though im encouraged by these results as the prices for these games are always usually 2.0-2.5 in price. 

Working on a NO BTTS & a half team o 1.5+ goals system. Just gonna test it for a couple of weeks and see. 

I found myself having a lot of correct selections but not a lot of correct bets. So iv cut my bets down to mostly double and some trebles. every now and then I will do a 4 fold for variety. Since changing to doubles iv had 3/7 winning doubles this week resulting in a +5 points profit so far.

Tonight bet is just 1 double as thursdays is a rubbish day for games usually! ....think ill post over the weekend as well just for an insight into the sort of games I pick and to hopefully discuss.

DOUBLE: 

Wolfsburg v Holsten Kiel - O2.5 (2.14)  + Lyngby v Randers- O 2.5(1.96) = 4.19 (Think prices have improved since I placed bet)

Have a positive day everyone!

[robstars7]

Good the double came in yesterday...like I said I will post up until Sunday just to see people opinions on my bet structure and selections.

Unusually for a friday I couldn't find a great deal of matches that matches up to my system so today its just one double again: 

Ives v VPS (Finland- veiskkausliga) ....BTTS (2.15) +Brommapojkarna v Kalmar FF (Sweden- Allsvenskan)....O 2.5 goals (2.08) = 4.47 double.

Does anyone know a site similar to soccerstats stats...like avg goals, cs %, fts% and the averages for all these that cover a wider range of games. A lot of south American games aren't covered by soccerstats. 

And also I want to look at half time prices of a game 0-0 to finish over 1.5 goals. How can I do that? 

 

Thanks!

 

[Rivilearner]

footystats.org is also a great site just like soccerstats, but some leagues you need to subscribe

[robstars7]

58 minutes ago, Rivilearner said:

footystats.org is also a great site just like soccerstats, but some leagues you need to subscribe

Thanks Rivilearner, 

I used to use that site a lot but it was all free then, £10 a month is a bit too steep considering there not a huge deal different to soccer stats, just got more leagues.

[robstars7]

Saturday picks: 

O 2.5 goals :

> Kagoshima v Sagamihara- Jap 3 - kicked off result 2:1

Cracovia v pogon szezecin- poland- 1.73

Asan v Deejeon- south korea - 1.78

Yokohama v varen- japenese - 1.76

Slovan v Zilina - slovakia - 1.73

Btts:

Omiya v gifu - japanese 2 - 1.80

Over 1.5 goals in 2nd half:

Real Oviedo v Seville - spain 2nd div - 2.20

AGF v Sonderjyske- Denmark- 2.18

 

Struggled to find btts as my stretegy uses low average goals teams and therefore there btts stats are poor, and the price isnt value when I work it out. Anyone got a way round it? maybe ignore getting value and just do btts that fall in line with the strategy and are around 2.0 in price? 

[robstars7]

Good results yesterday winning 2/5 bets and ending up with a 4 point profit. 

Sunday Picks: 

O 2.5 goals: 

Fredica v Vedsyssell - denmark 1st

Oita v Yanaguchi- japanese 2nd 

Grulla v Fujieda- japanese 3rd  (game currently 0-4)

Ankaran v celje - slovenia

Helsinberg v Orgeyte - sweeden 

Home team to score 2+ goals:

Touchi v Machida - Japanese 2nd

Magallones V rangers - Chile 

BTTS:

Alashkert v Gendsasar - Armenia

Thespakosta v tokyo u23 

O 1.5 goals in 2nd half:

Athletico v Eibar- Spain 

Hammarby v AIK- Sweden

[moggis]

On 02/01/2018 at 12:21 PM, Sir Puntalot said:

Not just football @robstars7 - the actual stats are 98% of people who bet lose money, and it's probably closer to 99% these days.  #top1%  

I agree that it’s probably 99% of punters who are long term losers but I’ve rarely seen anyone on a forum admit it so props to you.

In fact it’s worse than that ,of the 1% who win  I’d suggest that most only make the equivalent of minimum wage once the time they spend watching games they wouldn’t otherwise have watched etc is taken into account .

But what baffles me is why ?

I mean I don’t know because I never bet on 90 minute markets ,but aren’t the tips on this very site profitable !?

Or if not on this site ,is there no site where there are profitable tips ?

If yes then doesn’t that suggest that almost all gamblers are stupid ?

I mean why on earth don’t they just do the tips of a site that provides winning tips instead of their own losing ones ?

Ok I think I get that apparently people -well let’s face it -men all think they’re so smart they can figure it out themselves but why don’t   they just bet on the sites tips and paper trade  their own ones until they’ve cracked it ? Or better still why can’t they pick up information from the the type of markets winning tipsters are profiting from ? I mean pro gamblers don’t like to sell tips because they risk giving away their edge yet here are tipsters merrily  giving away their edge to every Tom Dick and Harry and still only 1 % can win !!

Im sorry but logically either no website is in actuality  making a discernible profit in which case doesn’t that suggest that this is all one big giant con that works in favour of the bookies and the site owners or the overwhelming majority of gamblers really aren’t overly smart .

I think it speaks volumes that very very few women bet except to have an interest in a game .

 

Edited June 13, 2018 by moggis

[Sir Puntalot]

2 hours ago, moggis said:

I agree that it’s probably 99% of punters who are long term losers but I’ve rarely seen anyone on a forum admit it so props to you.

In fact it’s worse than that ,of the 1% who win  I’d suggest that most only make the equivalent of minimum wage once the time they spend watching games they wouldn’t otherwise have watched etc is taken into account .

But what baffles me is why ?

I mean I don’t know because I never bet on 90 minute markets ,but aren’t the tips on this very site profitable !?

Or if not on this site ,is there no site where there are profitable tips ?

If yes then doesn’t that suggest that almost all gamblers are stupid ?

I mean why on earth don’t they just do the tips of a site that provides winning tips instead of their own losing ones ?

Ok I think I get that apparently people -well let’s face it -men all think they’re so smart they can figure it out themselves but why don’t   they just bet on the sites tips and paper trade  their own ones until they’ve cracked it ? Or better still why can’t they pick up information from the the type of markets winning tipsters are profiting from ? I mean pro gamblers don’t like to sell tips because they risk giving away their edge yet here are tipsters merrily  giving away their edge to every Tom Dick and Harry and still only 1 % can win !!

Im sorry but logically either no website is in actuality  making a discernible profit in which case doesn’t that suggest that this is all one big giant con that works in favour of the bookies and the site owners or the overwhelming majority of gamblers really aren’t overly smart .

I think it speaks volumes that very very few women bet except to have an interest in a game .

 

@moggisOh where to start!  

Regarding the 98/99% of losing punters - I consider these to be the every day joe bloggs types who bet for fun more than anything, and there's nothing wrong with that.

You'll find people on forums such as PL are considerably smarter, and if you would take the whole of Punters Lounge and get a percentage of winning punters, it would be way way higher than 1 or 2%, just looking around shows you that.

There are sites with profitable tips (hint, hint ) but there are sites that like to appear to be winning, but wait what's that? There's no record, I wonder why!  

That's quite a damning statement for the rest of what you've said, but I guess I'll talk from me being Punters Lounge owner's point of view.

Do I have a degree? No. Do I have higher education? None worth shouting about. However, I know betting inside out. I know value, I can decide for myself if those match odds are undervalued, overvalued or if I think that bookmaker has them spot on. I know that there is nearly always a bet to be had in every single football match, you just need to bet on the market that has the most value.

As for women - that's a very uninformed statement!   Sports betting, quite low female involvement. Casino, Bingo, Slots, Poker - women are very prominent, make no mistake about that.  

 

[robstars7]

On 6/13/2018 at 6:29 PM, Sir Puntalot said:

@moggisOh where to start!  

Regarding the 98/99% of losing punters - I consider these to be the every day joe bloggs types who bet for fun more than anything, and there's nothing wrong with that.

You'll find people on forums such as PL are considerably smarter, and if you would take the whole of Punters Lounge and get a percentage of winning punters, it would be way way higher than 1 or 2%, just looking around shows you that.

There are sites with profitable tips (hint, hint ) but there are sites that like to appear to be winning, but wait what's that? There's no record, I wonder why!  

That's quite a damning statement for the rest of what you've said, but I guess I'll talk from me being Punters Lounge owner's point of view.

Do I have a degree? No. Do I have higher education? None worth shouting about. However, I know betting inside out. I know value, I can decide for myself if those match odds are undervalued, overvalued or if I think that bookmaker has them spot on. I know that there is nearly always a bet to be had in every single football match, you just need to bet on the market that has the most value.

As for women - that's a very uninformed statement!   Sports betting, quite low female involvement. Casino, Bingo, Slots, Poker - women are very prominent, make no mistake about that.  

 

I just feel iv tried so many different approaches that im confused as to how you get to the best approach. All my results for systems have improved but its still tough to turn a profit.

Im going to start betting in singles, and iv found a market that I liked with decent odds.

Just not sure i can have a good enough success rate to beat the odds.

[robstars7]

Over 1.5 1st half..... This is a bet iv added to my systems and even though my win rate isnt as high the big prices (ususally 2.4+) makes it a bet of interest still. 

My problem is that if a match meets the requirement of my system the general price usually doesnt equal value. My system is specific as this is a hard bet to find. So obv a lot of matches wont be o1.5 in my system. So when i looked at o 1.5 goals 1st half a lot of team are like 7 matches 2 1st halfs over. 7 matches 3 games over = :

14 games 5 over=

14/5= 2.75 

= the price not usually classed as value.

What do i do? start betting on the match that reaches system and is closest to the value price?

[real55555]

1. When the value doesn't match with your system's expected value (this is how i called it), why don't you go the other way round i.e. Go under 1.5 goals. Normally when there's no value for one outcome means the other outcome should have more value.

2. Still goes back to some of the comments posted earlier in this thread. You need to get a substantial amount of sample to have a good picture of whether there's value or this strategy will turn into a profit. I believe every system will have good and bad streaks at some time, so if your sample size is too small, you will either turned a profitable system into a losing one because of small sample size or the other way round. My advice is 200-300 matches of sample size will give you an indication whether you should continue to do the trial, and to confirm whether your system is a profitable one, I'd say a minimum of 1000 matches sample is required, eve though some people still deem this as insufficient. It all depends on your ROI.

3. Try to keep your system/strategies simple so that you can get a lot of matches that fit the criteria for you to do your trial.

[robstars7]

2 hours ago, real55555 said:

1. When the value doesn't match with your system's expected value (this is how i called it), why don't you go the other way round i.e. Go under 1.5 goals. Normally when there's no value for one outcome means the other outcome should have more value.

2. Still goes back to some of the comments posted earlier in this thread. You need to get a substantial amount of sample to have a good picture of whether there's value or this strategy will turn into a profit. I believe every system will have good and bad streaks at some time, so if your sample size is too small, you will either turned a profitable system into a losing one because of small sample size or the other way round. My advice is 200-300 matches of sample size will give you an indication whether you should continue to do the trial, and to confirm whether your system is a profitable one, I'd say a minimum of 1000 matches sample is required, eve though some people still deem this as insufficient. It all depends on your ROI.

3. Try to keep your system/strategies simple so that you can get a lot of matches that fit the criteria for you to do your trial.

I think for the o/u 1.5 1st half goals the under would be too short a price. My system also works on backing a minimum price. I wont go beyond a certain price.

I think 2 of my systems (o2.5 goals and 2+ home team goals) are solid  but iv still only got about 300 and 200 games for those systems.

3. - in hindsight thats a good thought but its hard to have simple systems covering lots of games that are profitable.