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justanotherpunter

Championship SAM correct score

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I have been encouraged by Grex's SAM system to start  a thread based loosely on the SAM numbers published on the BBC for the Championship games.
I applied the published numbers on the Sheff Wed v Wolves match last night and I was rewarded with a Wolves win and 0-1 score forecast.
I will attempt to forecast the correct score with the published numbers using my own completely untested version.
I will use a stake of £1.00 for all matches and a starting bank of £0.00 to see if the Sheff Wed match was a fluke result or if there is any merit in this.
As stated this is completely untested so use with caution if planning to follow with hard cash.
I will use Betfair and Betdaq to place these matches for now-
Todays selections

Saturday    
16/12/2017 Birmingham v QPR           3.00 Correct score 0-0    9.80 £1.00 £8.80      BF
16/12/2017 Bolton v Burton                 3.00 Correct score 1-1    7.30 £1.00 £6.30      BD
16/12/2017 Brentford v Barnsley         3.00 Correct score 3-1  14.00 £1.00 £13.00    BD
16/12/2017 Bristol City v Notts Forest 3.00 Correct score 2-1   9.10 £1.00 £8.10       BD
16/12/2017 Derby v A Villa                  3.00 Correct score 2-1  11.50 £1.00 £10.50    BD
16/12/2017 Ipswich v Reading            3.00 Correct score 2-2  17.00 £1.00 £16.00    BF
16/12/2017 Leeds v Norwich               3.00 Correct score 2-1  10.50 £1.00 £9.50      BD
16/12/2017 Millwall v Middlesbrough  3.00 Correct score 2-2   20.00 £1.00 £19.00    BF
16/12/2017 Preston v Sheff Utd          3.00 Correct score 1-1     7.20 £1.00 £6.20      BD
16/12/2017 Sunderland v Fulham       3.00 Correct score 1-1     7.60 £1.00 £6.60      BD
16/12/2017 Cardiff v Hull                     5.30 Correct score 3-1  17.00 £1.00 £16.00    BF

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First of all, I have absolutely no problem with you "plagiarising" my thread title :lol

Until now, I didn't realise that BBC published SAM predictions for the Championship. However, I do wonder where you get the correct score predictions. For the EPL, the SAM predictions for 1-X-2 and correct score are given on the individual match analysis pages e.g. for the Leicester - Palace game......

acMEKgY.jpg

But for Championship games, BBC only appear to quote the 1-X-2 probability, e.g. for today's Birmingham - QPR game.....

Bb5xfu2.jpg

Anyway, good luck :hope

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Hi Grex- sorry for pinching your idea but I thought I would try it out on the championship as you were not in here :)

I use https://www.flashscore.com/

click on the match in question link - then click on H2H tab and try to predict the possible outcome from the previous home and away matches and also the historical matches between the 2 teams.

I also use this to try and predict BTTS outcomes.

I hope this helps you out in your quest and I would like to thank you for giving me the idea to try out something new :D

We'll see if it can be made to pay somehow and this is the reason for trying 4 threads as they can be dropped quickly if not profitable.

I will also keep an eye on your thread with interest - good luck to you also.

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In other words, this has got absolutely nothing to do with the probability predictions of SAM (Sports Analytics Machine).

You are merely making a "intelligent guess" based on previous results. Not exactly a "system" is it, Justanotherpunter?

Perhaps you should change the thread title, and transfer it to the Glory Hunters forum (if it still exists).

Edited by Grex

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Hi Grex

as I said in my opening "based loosely on the SAM numbers published on the BBC for the Championship games"

As there is no published score for these matches I have tried to apply my own method whilst referencing SAM figures at the same time.

I quite agree that it is not SAM scores being used - as there is none - so I have adapted to my own system as a test.

I seem to have got lucky again with the Bristol City match showing a profit with a win -

Saturday    
Birmingham v QPR           3.00 Correct score 0-0    9.80 £1.00 £8.80      BF 1-2 lost £1.00
Bolton v Burton                 3.00 Correct score 1-1    7.30 £1.00 £6.30      BD 0-1 lost £1.00
Brentford v Barnsley         3.00 Correct score 3-1  14.00 £1.00 £13.00    BD 0-0 lost £1.00
Bristol City v Notts Forest 3.00 Correct score 2-1   9.10 £1.00 £8.10       BD 2-1 won £7.69
Derby v A Villa                  3.00 Correct score 2-1  11.50 £1.00 £10.50    BD 2-0 lost £1.00
Ipswich v Reading            3.00 Correct score 2-2  17.00 £1.00 £16.00    BF 2-0 lost £1.00
Leeds v Norwich               3.00 Correct score 2-1  10.50 £1.00 £9.50      BD 1-0 lost £1.00
Millwall v Middlesbrough  3.00 Correct score 2-2   20.00 £1.00 £19.00    BF 2-1 lost £1.00
Preston v Sheff Utd          3.00 Correct score 1-1     7.20 £1.00 £6.20      BD 1-0 lost £1.00
Sunderland v Fulham       3.00 Correct score 1-1     7.60 £1.00 £6.60      BD 1-0 lost £1.00
Cardiff v Hull                     5.30 Correct score 3-1  17.00 £1.00 £16.00    BF  1-0 lost £1.00

Total matches played = 11 - total matches won = 1 - total matches lost = 10

Total won = £7.69 - total lost = £10.00 - total lost = £2.31

Bank £0.00

Selections 11

Won 1

Lost 10

Total lost £2.31

New Bank -£2.31

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Saturday                                                                                   Odds  Stake  Win
23/12/2017 Bolton v Cardiff                 3.00 Correct score 1-3  23.00 £1.00 £22.00 BD
23/12/2017 Derby v Millwall                 3.00 Correct score 2-0  10.50 £1.00 £9.50   BD
23/12/2017 Fulham v Barnsley            3.00 Correct score 3-0  15.50 £1.00 £14.50 BD
23/12/2017 Leeds v Hull                      3.00 Correct score 3-1  18.00 £1.00 £17.00 BD
23/12/2017 Preston v Notts Forest      3.00 Correct score 3-1  18.50 £1.00 £17.50 BD
23/12/2017 QPR v Bristol City             3.00 Correct score 1-2  11.00 £1.00 £10.00 BF
23/12/2017 Reading v Burton              3.00 Correct score 3-0  15.00 £1.00 £14.00 BD
23/12/2017 Sunderland v Birmingham 3.00 Correct score 2-0  10.50 £1.00 £9.50  BF
23/12/2017 Wolves v Ipswich              3.00 Correct score 4-1    20/1  £1.00 £20.00 B365
23/12/2017 A Villa v Sheff utd             5.30 Correct score 2-1   11.00 £1.00 £10.00 BD
23/12/2017 Sheff Wed v Middlesbrough 3.00 no numbers given

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Not so good in here either -

Friday                                                                      Odds  Stake  Win
Norwich v Brentford           7.45 Correct score 2-2  14.50 £1.00 £13.50 BD 1-2 lost £1.00

Saturday                                                                 Odds  Stake  Win
Bolton v Cardiff                 3.00 Correct score 1-3  23.00 £1.00 £22.00 BD 2-0 lost £1.00
Derby v Millwall                 3.00 Correct score 2-0  10.50 £1.00 £9.50   BD 3-0 lost £1.00
Fulham v Barnsley            3.00 Correct score 3-0  15.50 £1.00 £14.50 BD 2-1 lost £1.00
Leeds v Hull                      3.00 Correct score 3-1  18.00 £1.00 £17.00 BD 1-0 lost £1.00
Preston v Notts Forest      3.00 Correct score 3-1  18.50 £1.00 £17.50 BD 1-1 lost £1.00
QPR v Bristol City             3.00 Correct score 1-2  11.00 £1.00 £10.00 BF 1-1 lost £1.00
Reading v Burton              3.00 Correct score 3-0  15.00 £1.00 £14.00 BD 1-2 lost £1.00
Sunderland v Birmingham 3.00 Correct score 2-0  10.50 £1.00 £9.50  BF 1-1 lost £1.00
Wolves v Ipswich              3.00 Correct score 4-1    20/1  £1.00 £20.00 B365 1-0 lost £1.00
A Villa v Sheff utd             5.30 Correct score 2-1   11.00 £1.00 £10.00 BD 2-2 lost £1.00
Sheff Wed v Middlesbrough 3.00 no numbers given

Total matches played = 11 - total matches won = 0 - total matches lost = 11

Total won = £0.00 - total lost = £11.00 - total lost = £11.00

Bank -£2.31

Selections 22

Won 1

Lost 21

Total lost £11.00

New Bank -£13.31

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Todays matches

Friday                                                                           Odds  Stake  Win
29/12/2017 Cardiff v Preston  7.45 Correct score 2-1  10.50 £1.00 £9.50 BF
29/12/2017 Millwall v QPR     7.45 Correct score 2-1  10.50 £1.00 £9.50 BD

Saturday to follow -

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Saturdays matches -

Saturday                                                                                        Odds  Stake  Win
30/12/2017 Barnsley v Reading             3.00 Correct score 1-1   7.20 £1.00 £6.20 BF
30/12/2017 Birmingham v Leeds           3.00 Correct score 1-2  12.00 £1.00 £11.00 BF
30/12/2017 Brentford v Sheff Wed        3.00 Correct score 3-1  16.50 £1.00 £15.50 BD
30/12/2017 Burton v Norwich                3.00 Correct score 1-2  10.00 £1.00 £9.00 BD
30/12/2017 Hull v Fulham                     3.00 Correct score 2-2  14.50 £1.00 £13.50 BF
30/12/2017 Ipswich v Derby                  3.00 Correct score 1-1    7.20 £1.00 £6.20 BD
30/12/2017 Middlesbrough v A Villa      3.00 Correct score 2-1  10.50 £1.00 £9.50 BF
30/12/2017 Notts Forest v Sunderland 3.00 Correct score 1-0     9.60 £1.00 £8.60 BF
30/12/2017 Sheff Utd v Bolton              3.00 Correct score 3-0   13.50 £1.00 £12.50 BD
30/12/2017 Bristol City v Wolves          5.30 Correct score 1-2   11.00 £1.00 £10.00 BD

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Better showing in here -

Friday                                                                                           Odds  Stake  Win
29/12/2017 Cardiff v Preston                 7.45 Correct score 2-1  10.50 £1.00 £9.50 BF 0-1 lost £1.00
29/12/2017 Millwall v QPR                     7.45 Correct score 2-1  10.50 £1.00 £9.50 BD 1-0 lost £1.00

Saturday                                                                                        Odds  Stake  Win
30/12/2017 Barnsley v Reading             3.00 Correct score 1-1   7.20 £1.00 £6.20 BF 1-1 won £5.89 :cigar
30/12/2017 Birmingham v Leeds           3.00 Correct score 1-2  12.00 £1.00 £11.00 BF 1-0 lost £1.00
30/12/2017 Brentford v Sheff Wed        3.00 Correct score 3-1  16.50 £1.00 £15.50 BD 2-0 lost £1.00
30/12/2017 Burton v Norwich                3.00 Correct score 1-2  10.00 £1.00 £9.00 BD 0-0 lost £1.00
30/12/2017 Hull v Fulham                     3.00 Correct score 2-2  14.50 £1.00 £13.50 BF 2-2 won £12.82 :cigar
30/12/2017 Ipswich v Derby                  3.00 Correct score 1-1    7.20 £1.00 £6.20 BD 1-2 lost £1.00
30/12/2017 Middlesbrough v A Villa      3.00 Correct score 2-1  10.50 £1.00 £9.50 BF 0-1 lost £1.00
30/12/2017 Notts Forest v Sunderland 3.00 Correct score 1-0     9.60 £1.00 £8.60 BF 0-1 lost £1.00
30/12/2017 Sheff Utd v Bolton              3.00 Correct score 3-0   13.50 £1.00 £12.50 BD 0-1 lost £1.00
30/12/2017 Bristol City v Wolves          5.30 Correct score 1-2   11.00 £1.00 £10.00 BD 1-2 won £9.50 :cigar

Total matches played = 12 - total matches won = 3 - total matches lost = 9

Total won = £28.21 - total lost = £9.00 - total won = £19.21

Bank -£13.31

Selections 34

Won 4

Lost 30

Total won £19.21

New Bank £5.90

Bank is actually in profit for first time :cow

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Friday                                                                 Odds  Stake  Win
Sheff Utd v Sheff Wed 7.45 Correct score 3-1  19.00 £1.00 £18.00 BF 0-0 lost £1.00

Total matches played = 1 - total matches won = 0 - total matches lost = 1

Total won = £0.00 - total lost = £1.00 - total lost = £1.00

Bank £5.90

Selections 35

Won 4

Lost 31

Total lost £1.00

New Bank £4.90

Todays selection -

Saturday                                                                                Odds  Stake  Win
13/01/2018 Cardiff v Sunderland 12.30 Correct score 3-1  18.50 £1.00 £17.50        BF

more to follow

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Saturday                                                                                   Odds  Stake  Win
13/01/2018 Barnsley v Wolves           3.00 Correct score 0-3  13.50 £1.00 £12.50 BD
13/01/2018 Birmingham v Derby        3.00 Correct score 1-2  11.50 £1.00 £10.50 BF
13/01/2018 Brentford v Bolton            3.00 Correct score 3-0  14.00 £1.00 £13.00 BF
13/01/2018 Bristol City v Norwich       3.00 Correct score 2-1  10.50 £1.00 £9.50 BF
13/01/2018 Burton v QPR                  3.00 Correct score 1-1     7.00 £1.00 £6.00 BD
13/01/2018 Hull v Reading                 3.00 Correct score 2-1   10.50 £1.00 £9.50 BF
13/01/2018 Ipswich v Leeds               3.00 Correct score 1-1     7.20 £1.00 £6.20 BF
13/01/2018 Middlesbrough v Fulham 3.00 Correct score 2-1     9.80 £1.00 £8.80 BD
13/01/2018 Millwall v Preston            3.00 Correct score 1-1      7.40 £1.00 £6.40 BD
13/01/2018 Notts Forest v A Villa      5.30 Correct score 2-2    19.00 £1.00 £18.00 BF

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Saturday                                                                                Odds  Stake  Win
13/01/2018 Cardiff v Sunderland 12.30 Correct score 3-1  18.50 £1.00 £17.50        BF 0-0 lost £1.00

13/01/2018 Barnsley v Wolves           3.00 Correct score 0-3  13.50 £1.00 £12.50 BD 0-0 lost £1.00
13/01/2018 Birmingham v Derby        3.00 Correct score 1-2  11.50 £1.00 £10.50 BF 0-3 lost £1.00
13/01/2018 Brentford v Bolton            3.00 Correct score 3-0  14.00 £1.00 £13.00 BF 2-0 lost £1.00
13/01/2018 Bristol City v Norwich       3.00 Correct score 2-1  10.50 £1.00 £9.50 BF 0-1 lost £1.00
13/01/2018 Burton v QPR                  3.00 Correct score 1-1     7.00 £1.00 £6.00 BD 1-3 lost £1.00
13/01/2018 Hull v Reading                 3.00 Correct score 2-1   10.50 £1.00 £9.50 BF 0-0 lost £1.00
13/01/2018 Ipswich v Leeds               3.00 Correct score 1-1     7.20 £1.00 £6.20 BF 1-0 lost £1.00
13/01/2018 Middlesbrough v Fulham 3.00 Correct score 2-1     9.80 £1.00 £8.80 BD 0-1 lost £1.00
13/01/2018 Millwall v Preston            3.00 Correct score 1-1      7.40 £1.00 £6.40 BD 1-1 won £6.08
13/01/2018 Notts Forest v A Villa      5.30 Correct score 2-2    19.00 £1.00 £18.00 BF 0-1 lost £1.00

Total matches played = 11 - total matches won = 1 - total matches lost = 10

Total won = £6.08 - total lost = £10.00 - total lost = £3.92

Bank £4.90

Selections 46

Won 5

Lost 41

Total lost £3.92

New Bank £0.98

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Todays selections -

Saturday                                                                               Odds  Stake  Win
20/01/2018 A Villa v Barnsley        3.00 Correct score 4-0   20/1  £1.00 £20.00 365
20/01/2018 Bolton v Ipswich          3.00 Correct score 2-2  20.00 £1.00 £19.00 BF
20/01/2018 Fulham v Burton          3.00 Correct score 4-0   16/1  £1.00 £16.00 365
20/01/2018 Leeds v Millwall           3.00 Correct score 1-0    8.00 £1.00 £7.00 BF
20/01/2018 Norwich v Sheff Utd     3.00 Correct score 2-1  10.50 £1.00 £9.50 BD
20/01/2018 Preston v Birmingham 3.00 Correct score 3-0  18.00 £1.00 £17.00 BD
20/01/2018 QPR v Middlesbrough 3.00 Correct score 1-2  11.00 £1.00 £10.00 BF
20/01/2018 Reading v Brentford    3.00 Correct score 1-2  10.50 £1.00 £9.50 BD
20/01/2018 Sunderland v Hull        3.00 Correct score 2-2  19.50 £1.00 £18.50 BF
20/01/2018 Wolves v Notts Forest 3.00 Correct score 4-0   16/1  £1.00 £16.00 365
20/01/2018 Sheff Wed v Cardiff     5.30 Correct score 1-1    7.00 £1.00 £6.00 BF

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No luck this weekend -

Friday                                                                Odds  Stake  Win
Derby v Bristol City      7.45 Correct score 2-1  10.00 £1.00 £9.00 BD 0-0 lost £1.00

Saturday                                                             Odds  Stake  Win
A Villa v Barnsley        3.00 Correct score 4-0   20/1  £1.00 £20.00 365 3-1 lost £1.00
Bolton v Ipswich          3.00 Correct score 2-2  20.00 £1.00 £19.00 BF 1-1 lost £1.00
Fulham v Burton          3.00 Correct score 4-0   16/1  £1.00 £16.00 365 6-0 lost £1.00
Leeds v Millwall           3.00 Correct score 1-0    8.00 £1.00 £7.00 BF 3-4 lost £1.00
Norwich v Sheff Utd     3.00 Correct score 2-1  10.50 £1.00 £9.50 BD 1-2 lost £1.00
Preston v Birmingham 3.00 Correct score 3-0  18.00 £1.00 £17.00 BD 1-1 lost £1.00
QPR v Middlesbrough 3.00 Correct score 1-2  11.00 £1.00 £10.00 BF 0-3 lost £1.00
Reading v Brentford    3.00 Correct score 1-2  10.50 £1.00 £9.50 BD 0-1 lost £1.00
Sunderland v Hull        3.00 Correct score 2-2  19.50 £1.00 £18.50 BF 1-0 lost £1.00
Wolves v Notts Forest 3.00 Correct score 4-0   16/1  £1.00 £16.00 365 0-2 lost £1.00
Sheff Wed v Cardiff     5.30 Correct score 1-1    7.00 £1.00 £6.00 BF 0-0 lost £1.00

Total matches played = 12 - total matches won = 0 - total matches lost = 12

Total won = £0.00 - total lost = £12.00 - total lost = £12.00

Bank £0.98

Selections 58

Won 5

Lost 53

Total lost £12.00

New Bank -£11.02

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