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Mattmid

ELO Test

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I thought I'd post these up and see how they do.  I've been playing around with the excellent ELO ratings and want to try this. It's based on the team's average game score given by Sir Puntalot but then adjusted by the average of their opponent's average effect to date in their previous games.  Having read that back I think an example is needed :eek  These averages are home and away separate as I'm very much a believer that most teams play different home to away. 


So this week for example, let's take Burnley v Watford. 

 

So far Burnley's average game score at home from the ELO scores is 32, whilst Watford's away game score is 42 (got to say I'm very impressed with Watford this season and if you look who they've played at home as well then their home record should improve too)

Those are the base figures then.  Burnley 32  Watford 42

To date, Burnley have reduced their opponents average game score by 0.50 on average, whilst Watford have reduced their opponents average game score by 2.75.  I excluded the first three games from the opponents average to let the teams game score average settle down.

Those figures are then added or taken away from the opponents, so Burnley  32 - 2.75,  Watford  42 - 0.5.   If the opponent average reduction has a minus figure then it's added on to the average instead. 

Attached as a jpg is this weekend's fixtures (with current odds from betfair)

 

A word on Liverpool v Everton.  Liverpool have been reducing the opponent's game score massively at home (and away in fact) recently which means Everton's already low away average score has been reduced to minus!

 

I'm not betting on this for real but for test purposes let's put a few bets that standout  and see how they fare. 

Quite a few look too close to call or very little value in them

So...

Watford  3.20  (it will be interesting to see if free scoring Watford can break down stubborn Burnley or not)

Man Utd  3.45  (a repeat of the Arsenal game?)

 

Chelsea and Spurs look bankers but of no value.  Leicester or Newcastle to win look fair odds but I've no idea which one will if any so I'll leave that.  Similarly with Huddersfield and Brighton. 

 

I think I'll test an underdog one too where the totals are not massively apart and odds are say 4.00+

Southampton 4.10

Stoke  DNB 10.50  or Double Chance 4.20 (Not that close but given Spurs form and huge odds might as well add it)

Bournemouth  4.00

 

prem9dec.jpg

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Value   0/2

Underdog (odds 4 min)   0/3

 

Data at bottom.  I've made a slight adjustment and decided to go with the median rather than average so as to try to smooth out the outlying games from affecting things too much as I'm going to use last 6 scores as we move forward rather than the whole season to try to keep an element of 'form' in the figures. 

 

Value 

Burnley 2.34  

Not an awful lot in the Palace v Watford totals (10) so at 3.40 I'm going to plump for Watford again (as long as Benteke stays on penalty duties :lol )

Leicester at 3.75 looks a decent price too with just 10 between them on ratings as well. 

Everton  3.30 at a rating difference of just 2. 

 

Underdogs (4+)

On ratings have to say none of them.  On a personal note it wouldn't be a surprise if West Ham beat Arsenal but I can't justify putting it in as this is based purely on the rating levels. 

 

 

prem12dec.jpg

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