2018 World Cup Ante-Post Chat

[waynecoyne]

i have had a go at naming the finalists: brazil/spain at 18/1 b365

this is based on germany underperforming which has been discussed elsewhere and france and brazil meeting in the semi.

[harry_rag]

8 hours ago, waynecoyne said:

i have had a go at naming the finalists: brazil/spain at 18/1 b365

this is based on germany underperforming which has been discussed elsewhere and france and brazil meeting in the semi.

That's also tipped by the Racing Post today in their 88 page World Cup pullout. Spent most of today wading though it. It's a decent enough read and should be useful for reference before each game.

To answer a question asked elsewhere by @thecurlyone1 Kevin Pullein's only tip is for Argentina who he feels may represent the best value in the outright market. There's also a couple of pages where he offers his thoughts on qualifying results (a poor guide to what lies ahead), the extent of home continent advantage for European teams, the increasing prevalence of defence over attack in International football and how luck is more significant in International tournaments than is generally acknowledged.

Also, back to @waynecoyne Spreadex have got a load more of those player goal minutes quotes up which I've not looked at yet.

[waynecoyne]

bernardo silva at 36 looks ok

[waynecoyne]

10 hours ago, harry_rag said:

That's also tipped by the Racing Post today in their 88 page World Cup pullout. Spent most of today wading though it. It's a decent enough read and should be useful for reference before each game.

To answer a question asked elsewhere by @thecurlyone1 Kevin Pullein's only tip is for Argentina who he feels may represent the best value in the outright market. There's also a couple of pages where he offers his thoughts on qualifying results (a poor guide to what lies ahead), the extent of home continent advantage for European teams, the increasing prevalence of defence over attack in International football and how luck is more significant in International tournaments than is generally acknowledged.

Also, back to @waynecoyne Spreadex have got a load more of those player goal minutes quotes up which I've not looked at yet.

harry,

interesting that you mention kevin pullein. He seems to be revered in some circles and apparently makes a profit year on year.

I cannot however bring myself to read his columns. Whenever I try, it just seems a load of waffle and saying things like the team that gets more shots on goal has more chance of scoring. I wonder what his success levels are really like. He also seems to bet almost exclusively on corners which I don't have much interest in.

[StevieDay1983]

8 hours ago, waynecoyne said:

harry,

interesting that you mention kevin pullein. He seems to be revered in some circles and apparently makes a profit year on year.

I cannot however bring myself to read his columns. Whenever I try, it just seems a load of waffle and saying things like the team that gets more shots on goal has more chance of scoring. I wonder what his success levels are really like. He also seems to bet almost exclusively on corners which I don't have much interest in.

It's also a massive call to back Argentina. There is no denying that Argentina have a quality attack but they've performed poorly in qualification and have weaknesses at the back. If they came into this tournament with the Messi of four years ago then I might be more enthusiastic about backing them. If they really get going then I could maybe see a semi-final spot. I just think when you compare them to Brazil, Spain, France, and Germany I don't think they can compete.

[Icongene]

I've backed Spain at 7.5

Only them or France really interested me in terms of value. Germany and Brazil around 5.00 is terrible.

It will take a huge tournament for a few of the younger Spanish guys but with Ramos/Pique/De Gea there at the back, that's as good as any to take to a World Cup. 

I think the top 4/5 teams are probably more evenly matched than the bookies are suggesting.

 

Edited June 9, 2018 by Icongene

[allyhibs]

It's Germany, France, Spain or Brazil.

Put 1 unit on each of them and the minimum profit is 1 unit. Easy 

Quote

 

 

[bookiebasher]

Ive been away and it seems ive missed the Racing Post World Cup Pullout ffs...Has anyone still got their copy ?..As i sometimes like to follow on their "experts" favourite bets for the world cup...Much appreciated if anyone can help me. 

[harry_rag]

28 minutes ago, bookiebasher said:

Ive been away and it seems ive missed the Racing Post World Cup Pullout ffs...Has anyone still got their copy ?..As i sometimes like to follow on their "experts" favourite bets for the world cup...Much appreciated if anyone can help me. 

I believe you can buy it as a standalone paper "at all good newsagents". You could also (I assume) buy the ipad version of last Thursday's paper and get it that way, or access it by subscribing to their members club (there should be a 30 day free trial option).

[bookiebasher]

3 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

I believe you can buy it as a standalone paper "at all good newsagents". You could also (I assume) buy the ipad version of last Thursday's paper and get it that way, or access it by subscribing to their members club (there should be a 30 day free trial option).

Thanks mate..I saw it in the Member Club but didnt see the 30 day free trial option,as i dont follow horses i didnt think it was worth joining..But i,ll look again.

[harry_rag]

Might not be on at the moment, apologies if that's the case. There always seems to be a free trial offer more often that not!

Should be £3.95 in newsagents apparently.

[bookiebasher]

Ok i,ll try in the newsagents again tomorrow...Cheers. 

[Bronxie]

So what's the best offer from the bookies for this? Will be placing my ante post today.

[Icongene]

25 minutes ago, Bronxie said:

So what's the best offer from the bookies for this? Will be placing my ante post today.

WilliamHill on outright winner and top goalscorer gives you a 5quid free bet each time yer team win or your player scores (if that's ye meant).

[Sir Puntalot]

On 08/06/2018 at 7:27 AM, waynecoyne said:

harry,

interesting that you mention kevin pullein. He seems to be revered in some circles and apparently makes a profit year on year.

I cannot however bring myself to read his columns. Whenever I try, it just seems a load of waffle and saying things like the team that gets more shots on goal has more chance of scoring. I wonder what his success levels are really like. He also seems to bet almost exclusively on corners which I don't have much interest in.

Amazingly dull read, have to agree @waynecoyne   I'd question his profits unless a full record is shown, RP, Oddschecker, they all bleat winners but there's no record.  

[Sir Puntalot]

11 hours ago, Bronxie said:

So what's the best offer from the bookies for this? Will be placing my ante post today.

There's currently 18 offers on our middle tab offers section.  Scroll down on mobile/tablet or right side on desktop.  

[waynecoyne]

brazil tournament wins (matches won in this tournament) are 3.7 to buy with sporting index

drawn in a weak group with Serbia Switzerland and costa rica I can see them winning all 3

then probably mexico  Belgium, france to reach the final.

This is 90 mins only- (apologies I missed that)- so that makes it a little less attractive.

Edited June 14, 2018 by waynecoyne

[harry_rag]

2 hours ago, Sir Puntalot said:

Amazingly dull read, have to agree @waynecoyne   I'd question his profits unless a full record is shown, RP, Oddschecker, they all bleat winners but there's no record.  

On the dull read point, that's a matter of opinion these days. Sometimes I scan what he says, sometimes the whole article is interesting and of value even if there isn't a tip at the end of it. Unless you (mistakenly) think you know everything there is to know about betting and can't possibly improve as a punter then there would be some things you could learn from him. Whether his writing style appeals to you enough for you to sort his wheat from the considerable chaff is another matter.

In years past I've learnt a huge amount about framing your own odds from reading him in various publications and his book and I'm £1,000s better (or less worse) off as a result.

I can guarantee you his track record is beyond question, it's been posted bet for bet on here for several years!  You can quibble that he only puts up one selection a week in obscure markets with firms where some of us may struggle to get much on (e.g. AH card/corner markets with 365) but you cannot question his ability to find value.

[markus808]

If anyone is interested in World Cup winner and group stage simulation models there is a good paper https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.03208.pdf (from page 20). Statistical models have been wildly successful before (Microsoft's model predicting Portugal win and unbeaten record two years ago for example) It has Spain winning at 17.8% (5.6) over 100k simulations. Betfair has it around 13% (7.40). There are more value to be had on who is reaching the group stages and correct finishing positions of a given group.

 

Edited June 14, 2018 by markus808

[Sir Puntalot]

12 hours ago, harry_rag said:

On the dull read point, that's a matter of opinion these days. Sometimes I scan what he says, sometimes the whole article is interesting and of value even if there isn't a tip at the end of it. Unless you (mistakenly) think you know everything there is to know about betting and can't possibly improve as a punter then there would be some things you could learn from him. Whether his writing style appeals to you enough for you to sort his wheat from the considerable chaff is another matter.

In years past I've learnt a huge amount about framing your own odds from reading him in various publications and his book and I'm £1,000s better (or less worse) off as a result.

I can guarantee you his track record is beyond question, it's been posted bet for bet on here for several years!  You can quibble that he only puts up one selection a week in obscure markets with firms where some of us may struggle to get much on (e.g. AH card/corner markets with 365) but you cannot question his ability to find value.

Agreed, everyone likes a different strength cup of tea.  

Not sure if that "mistakenly" was a dig at me  I don't for the record, but I have been betting since I was 15 so I know plenty, but there's always different markets created that make you think of different ways to bet.

Has "every" bet he's ever done been put up though?  He's no onion, but if a tipster writes for a big company he/she should have a record so that all newbie punters can see exactly what they're made of, however as I've said already, there's a very good reason why most don't.

[harry_rag]

No dig intended, just making the point that anyone who thought they knew it all would be mistaken.

I assume he's had bets that don't get printed in the paper (given that, these days, he only puts up one bet in a typical week). He has something like 19 or 20 years of profitable tipping based on if you'd followed all his published bets over a season. I suspect the prominence with which they post his record, e.g. at the end of every season, means it's decidedly not typical of all their tipsters, who are obliged to put up several tips most match days. They are more open to revealing their individual tipsters' records on request these days, good bad or indifferent.

At the end of the day they're providing journalistic content rather than a paid tipping service so there's no obligation on them to provide detailed records of past performance. It's probably telling that it's only KP and, recently at least, their golf tipster for whom they choose to regularly publish a p/l.

[Pep004]

Hello guys, here are my quick thoughts about the WC group stages... I totally forgot to do a c/p so some odds might be different till now.

Group A

For me personally, two biggest concerns/questions are if Salah will play and how much will home ground help to Russians. “Golden generation” of Uruguay will play one of their last if not the last World Cup as Suarez, Cavani, and Godin are 31/32 years old. With all experiences they have, I expect no surprise in the group, seeing Uruguay at the top without bigger difficulties. Therefore the future bet I suggest for this group is Uruguay to win the group. Odds on Pinnacle are currently set at 1,99. Second suggestion, but can be more or less used as a combo bet as odds are around 1,50 is Saudi Arabia to reach less than 1,5 points in the group.

 

Group B

Eyes in this group are completely on two teams from the Iberian Peninsula, but both other teams in the group have some decent players. I think that Morocco has a very decent squad with some exceptional individuals, but unluckily for them, they have two European “giants” in their group, and if both will play up to expectations, there should be no surprises. I was looking at Portugal to have more than 5,5 points in the group at odds around 2,00 on Pinnacle, but they are usually having some problems in group stages, so I think that there is no value on these odds. Another future bet in this group could be also that Iran won’t reach more than 1,5 points with odds around 1,85.

 

Group C

In this group, there should be no doubts about the winner as France is having one of the most talented squads on this World Cup. Still, a lot will depend on decisions of Deschamps who is still using Giroud as a number nine and due to his role, France plays much slower than they could, but well… On second place I see Denmark, who seems like a very decent team, while Australia is coming with one of poorest teams in their history and I cannot see them reaching anything. Peru is a team who can complicate things for everyone, but I think that Denmark is more tactically organized and therefore I see them at 2nd place. So my betting suggestion in this group is Denmark to qualify at 1,714 on Pinnacle, while other interesting is Australia to have less than 1,5 points in the group with odds around 1,90.

 

Group D

Argentina almost stayed without the World Cup as they booked their place on last matches. Can Messi carry them to finals? Can Messi reach something with the national team? We’ll have responses soon, but due to how much they depend on one player, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Croatia taking first place. The second place in this group will very possibly bring up the match against France, so I believe the both (Croatia and Argentina) will try to do their best to avoid the second position. Nigeria is a very special team, with a bunch of interesting players, but as I said earlier about Morocco, I think that they are simply in a tough group. They have their chances against Iceland, but I think that advantage in tactics – especially in case of Iceland, who plays very well organized, might cause Nigerians big problems. My betting suggestion in this group is Croatia to reach more than 4,5 points at odds around 1,80.

 

Group E

Personally, I think that Brazilians are the biggest favorites in this tournament, but the ball is rounded and everything can change very quickly in 90 minutes, so I don’t really like to talk about main favorites. Anyway, I cannot see any problems for them in this group, but their coach will need to keep players heads on the ground as the first knockout match could be very tricky. Costa Rica surprised the whole world on last World Cup, but this year I cannot see them repeating something similar this year. Even more, I expect them to be at the bottom of this group. Switzerland is always somewhere up, usually coming through group stages but leaving them as soon as possible and I see them surviving the group stage this time as well. Therefore my betting suggestion in this group is Switzerland to qualify with odds around 2,00 on Pinnacle.

 

Group F

National coach of Germany decided to leave Leroy Sane at home which really shocked me as Leroy, regardless of his age is one of the best wingers in the world. Still, they have a lot of same players as in 2016 and what is even more important, they are Germans, they have a winning mentality and they know how to play to win tournaments. As they will mix with Group E, where Brazil will most likely take first place, they will do everything to be in the first place in their group. Mexico looks the most serious contender for 2nd here. Sweden without Ibrahimović is a different team and even though some people are saying that it’s good for the nation because they play as a team, I do not agree with this, because Ibrahimović is still a leader and a player who can make a difference. I think that Swedens will need more time to be used to play without Zlatan. My betting suggestion in this group is Mexico to qualify with odds above 1,85 on Pinnacle.

 

Group G

Belgium with their golden generation might be the dark horse of this tournament. True that they will most likely cross with Brazil, but in my opinion, they are the team who can beat them. No one is taking England seriously anymore, but that can go only in their favor. There is no extreme pressure on the team of Southgate for who everyone is saying that it wouldn’t be a surprise of going home already after the group stage and even though I think that Tunisia can be a serious contender for second place, I think that discipline of England could be enough to survive the group stage. No one really speaks about Panama, who I think has no chance in this group. My betting suggestion for this group is Belgium to win with odds 1,751 on Pinnacle, while the other interesting bet is also Panama to reach less than 1,5 points with odds around 1,57.

 

Group H

That is the group without the main favorite in my opinion. Bookies are highly rating Colombia, but I have some strange feelings about their selection. True that their superstar Falcao is probably playing last World Cup, but both Poland and Senegal look very decent and could cook up some surprises here. Poland with Lewandowski in front and with some other very decent players could be even first in this group, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see Senegal qualifying from this group. Japan is having a bunch of difficulties and currently having a pretty poor selection, so I see them at the bottom of this group. Japan under 3,5 points seems like a decent bet for me, but odds are pretty low (around 1,41). Firstly, I was looking at Poland to win the group, but as I smell that at least one of them – Colombia or Poland will be a flop, I decided to take Senegal to qualify with 2,11 on Pinnacle!

Edited June 15, 2018 by Pep004

[Mindfulness]

To reach the semi final: England @ 2.6 Betfair

Finishing 2nd in the group has boosted England's chances of progressing to the later stages of this tournament and Betfair's price of 2.6 looks generous for this market imo.

Colombia? They will resort to shooting from distance to test Pickford and then Falcao will look to convert any spillages inside the penalty box. Cuadrado will also look to get in behind Ashley Young who can be defensively vulnerable at LWB. The biggest concern for England here is that they are facing an experienced opponent both on the pitch and in the dugout, Colombia looked cohesive in the group phase, albeit against average opposition. On the flipside, England will be the most menacing side Colombia have had to face thus far and their backline will really be put to the test. Even if star man James Rodriguez manages to play, he is clearly struggling with a niggling injury and may not be able to make as big an impact on the game as he otherwise would. Colombia are experienced and have some quality danger men but I still see this match as a good opportunity for England to progress to the next round.

Switzerland / Sweden? Two of my least favourite international teams right now, both low on quality but both are well drilled, cohesive, hard to break down and possess a strong mentality. If it came down to quality of individuals then England would obliterate either of these teams but we know international football is not like that these days and so I expect both these teams to test England's mentality and resolve to the limit. All the pressure will be on England here as they will be expected to cruise past the 'lesser' opposition but the reality will probably be a grim war of attrition. Despite this, we should, as with the Colombia game, see this as a great opportunity for England to reach their first World Cup semi final in 28 years. Southgate is different from previous England managers as he is more adept at shielding the players from the weight of pressure and expectation. This will be crucial now England have been placed in the 'easy' half of the tournament where psychology will perhaps be the most important factor for the favoured teams.

It's still going to be really difficult for England to make the latter stages of this tournament, if we were talking about EVS to make the last 4 then I wouldn't bother but Betfair's 2.6 has just enough juice for me to get involved.

Note: Do not confuse 'to reach the semi final' market with 'stage of elimination' market.