Group H Predictions (Poland, Senegal, Colombia, Japan)

[Marek76]

On 13.06.2018 at 4:40 PM, dziabac said:

If you watch "Łączy nas Piłka" channel on YouTube you can tell that team morale is off the hook and if it comes to the World cup/ Euro cup: attitude & team physical preparation is the two most important things. Polish federation pumped money in to the camp for them. They send 4 trucks full of equipment to Sochi. I don't see anything less then 7 points for them after 3 games.

Welcome @dziabac !

By that you mean that Senegalese players will take the World Cup not so seriously and get lazy on the pitch?! Every single player participating in the World Cup is pumped and willing to give 100% blood and sweat. So I don't see how that coluld be an advantage for us. 

If I bet every single time with my heart (be it my beloved club or national team) rather than my mind then I'd be sleeping under the bridge by now.

Don't get me wrong, I'd love to see us cruising 3-0 by half time, I just don't think we can pull this off.

[Pep004]

Colombia -0,5 @1,92

Yesterday, odds on Colombia were under 1,70 and I have to admit that I was thinking about taking it. Now, at 1,92 it's a default bet for me but count on the fact that James Rodriguez will start on the bench, due to the problems with calf. Even though I've said in the first post about the World Cup, that I smell the surprise in this group with Senegal qualifying and one of two strong teams - Poland or Colombia being a flop, I've decided to go with South Americans here. They are a way more experienced team, having much stronger team individually and I think that in 90 minutes, they should be able to break the Japan side. Japan is the biggest underdog in this group, but even they have some chances of qualifying - anyway fewer chances among other teams in my opinion. With Inui, Kagawa, Haraguchi, they have some interesting players, but I think that all in all, they will have a tough time, competing against well "oiled" Colombian side with veteran Falcao as a lone striker, and strong support of Cuadrado, Sanchez, Quintero and some other players. Pekerman will also have some jokers on the bench -  especially in Bacca and James which cannot be said for the Japan manager Nishino.

Once again, I think that odds went crazy only due to the fact that James starts on the bench, but looking from another perspective... Japanese were probably preparing themselves on this player, trying to cover his movements, not allowing him to take the ball often, not allowing to be alone at all and I expect them being a bit lost now as they don't know if they should do the same with Quintero, or simply pay more attention to other players as Falcao, Cuadrado, etc. I think that a lot will go through Carlos Sanchez in the middle, while it's true that focusing on only a few players against this Colombian side might be a problem. I don't think that will be an easy match for Colombia, but I do think that they will start with a 1-0/2-1 win. I've been looking at over as well, but I have to admit that Colombian defense seems pretty solid, so I am staying only with this suggestion.

[mcsilks]

Columbia 1-1 Japan at Half Time. Columbia down to 10 men.

Columbia 4/1 to win with Paddy Power the game despite dominating with their 10 men.

Cracking odds.

[StevieDay1983]

8 minutes ago, mcsilks said:

Columbia 1-1 Japan at Half Time. Columbia down to 10 men.

Columbia 4/1 to win with Paddy Power the game despite dominating with their 10 men.

Cracking odds.

Interesting stat, Colombia have never won a game at the World Cup when they have gone behind. That includes actually losing the previous six. Still, they have done well to come back from behind so why not back them at those odds?

[waynecoyne]

On ‎06‎/‎06‎/‎2018 at 7:55 AM, waynecoyne said:

This is good info marek, I have always been impressed by Glik when I have seen him. Senegal look tempting at 5/2 in the game v Poland. I have backed this and also sold the time of the second Senegal goal at 81.

thanks again marek-you've won me a few quid

[StevieDay1983]

So @Marek76 and @dziabac, how are you feeling after yesterday? You've got to be confident you can still beat Japan after they stumbled over the line against 10 man Colombia. However, that Colombia game could prove crucial. I still think this group is wide open. In fact, yesterday's results have only added even more unpredictability to proceedings.

[Marek76]

@StevieDay1983 Deep inside I'm gutted because we lost the game but in all fairness I should be saying: I told you so, didn't I ?!

We showed no balls, no creativity, with Milik being useless as a burger sandwich at a Jewish party. And it's even more painfull as Senegal did not play great football at all. Both goals that we conceded were pure gifts. First one was a deflection (with defender facing the goal and his back towards the shot - a rookie mistake) and the second goal was a gift from the 4th official who decided to let the Senegalese player come on the field right in middle of the action and unfortunately our DM decided to play a long ball towards Szczęsny (who should have stayed in goal FFS!, he was 2 meters off the ball when he got lobbed...) 

https://gph.is/2tlYBIQ

It will be a tricky game on Sunday but, without any unnecessary sugercoating, I reckon we'll lose the game as well. if you follow my initial post in this thread, it's all there. And it you see Milik in the line up on Sunday, double your stakes. 

Edited June 23, 2018 by Marek76

[Sir Puntalot]

14 hours ago, Marek76 said:

with Milik being useless as a burger sandwich at a Jewish party.

This  

[sodabrab]

This is the group of death really 3 teams very equally matched here are my views tomorrow.

Senegal v Japan

I like Senegal -0.25 @1,96. They are such a physical direct running team, they can mix it up and like to play a long ball. So in the event that Japan put an early press on like they did against Colombia, Senegal can just go over that up to Niang who's very capable in the air. I've major concerns about two centre backs for Japan 10 man Colombia caused them trouble  with simple balls over the top which Falcao lateched on to twice and could have scored. Their right back also is a concern H Sakai he 's positioning sense was found out a few times against Colombia. the keeper Kawasaki is a liability and that was clear to see for anyone that studied Japan in the warm ups. Tomorrow Sakai and Kawasaki match up against Mane and  Sybaly down the left and Niang and they have serious pace. At the back Koulibaly and co are very solid and they kept Lewandowski very quiet. I think they are too physical, too fast and have the attributes to target where Japan are at their weakest.

Poland V Colombia

This is a tough one to call and whether Glik plays will be key. I'm not convinced by Cionek or Pazdan particularly Pazdan he seems to play a yard off the rest of the Polish defenders and that is a worry for me. If Glik plays that changes things as he is their leader and also excellent in the air in the offensive third. Millik was very poor against Senegal and I think his place is under threat and I also worry about Piczczek defensively. Offensively I rate Poland but they are very reliant on attacking down their left side with Grosicki he is a real threat. Lewandowski was poor against Senegal but he was up against Kouliblay who is a superb centre half. I think we will see the real Lewandowski tomorrow. Colombia were good with 10 men against Japan. Izquierdo was a threat and Falcao looked dangerous with the limited supply he got. James is their key player and he only joined as a sub reservations remain whether he is fit but I think when the chips are down he will come to the party. At the back D Sanchez was very poor for Colombia and I'm concerned about how he'll match up to Lewandowski. All in all I think these are two good attacking teams on their day, the shackles will have to be off tomorrow and the one who's bravest will prob take it. I think we will see goals because of this but also because of where they sit on the table this is do or die. I like Over 2.25 @ 1.88 and will prob bet in running on AH bet once I see how teams set up. 

 

Edited June 23, 2018 by sodabrab

[betcatalog]

The two teams, burned for grades, otherwise will have an important issue. I expect to be better than the premiere and will give it all, I expect to be aggressive and so I will bet on both teams to score
POLAND vs COLOMBIA @@ Both team to score, odds 1.75

An important game for the two teams, whichever win will make a decisive qualifying step. I really like Senegal and I will give her a winning lead, I do not think they will take any particular risk, so the few goals have a lot of luck
JAPAN vs SENEGAL @@ +2.50 Under, odds 1.62

[Magic0024]

Football Facts and Streaks regarding FIFA World Cup

England have won their last 5 matches in FIFA World Cup.
Senegal have won their last 4 matches in FIFA World Cup.
Colombia have failed to win their last 5 matches in FIFA World Cup.
England are undefeated in their last 12 matches in FIFA World Cup.
Senegal are undefeated in their last 10 matches in FIFA World Cup.
Japan are undefeated in 90% of their last 10 matches in FIFA World Cup.
There have been over 2.5 goals scored in Poland's last 11 games in FIFA World Cup.

You can find interesting 134 Football Betting Streaks for 24.06.2018 on this link ... http://eurofootballrumours.com/football-facts-and-streaks-24-06-2018-10052

[StevieDay1983]

Japan vs Senegal

Group H is an enigma wrapped in a mystery and surrounded by intrigue. What a set of opening game results we had. My initial predictions were thrown right to the four winds so when Japan face Senegal in this 4pm BST kick-off later today at the Central Stadium in Yekaterinburg anything could bloody happen!

Fortunately, despite winning 2-1 against 10 man Colombia in their first game, I saw nothing from Japan that made me think they are going to qualify. Had Colombia kept all eleven players on the pitch I think they would have beaten Akira Nishino's side. They are simply lacking in terms of quality across the park.

Senegal were every bit as dangerous as we suspected. I backed them to be tricky against Poland but I still thought Poland might edge it or, at best, it would be a draw. I was impressed by Senegal though. It is a side that Aliou Cisse has clearly inspired with the spirit of 2002. I'm excited by the prospect of watching them this afternoon.

For me, this is one of the easier games to back. I'm not saying my prediction is a given but I have confidence in this Senegal team to do the business. Their attacking prowess will just be too much for Japan. I can see a Senegal win and if Japan don't settle quickly it could be a rude awakening for them. Let's see just how brave these two sides are. Will they both go for the win or will they put defensive solidarity first as an insurance policy for the draw? I can see Senegal taking the initiative and that will be pressure that Japan might struggle to handle.

Senegal to win @ 2.50 with Betfair

Total Goals Scored Over 2.5 @ 2.42 with Matchbook

[StevieDay1983]

Poland vs Colombia

One of the tougher games to predict just became a lot tougher when Poland meet Colombia in a 7pm BST kick-off this evening at the Kazan Arena in Kazan. Both teams suffered surprising defeats in their opening games and a loss here could spell an early exit from the competition if earlier results go a certain way.

We were warned by the Polish collective on here that things might not be so positive as some of us predicted. They were right, of course. Always trust the views of those closest to the source. What concerned me for Poland was how rigid and nervous they looked. It seemed like some of their players froze when it mattered. That does not bode well. Especially against a Colombia side that will clearly want to make up for the opening game loss.

Colombia are a team that many still feel will reach the last 16 despite their opening game loss to Japan. They have quality throughout the side and had it not been for the sending off of Carlos Sanchez then it could have been a different story. I am backing them to hit back fiercely today. Even with 10 men they almost snatched a draw with Japan and that shows the steely determination within this Colombian team.

I'm actually very excited to watch this game. If Japan and Senegal draw earlier on then that will add another element of pressure to the game with these teams knowing a defeat would eliminate them but drawing would leave their hopes hanging by a thread. I think this could be a thrilling game. My gut says to back Colombia but I just can't write this Poland team off. @Marek76 and @dziabac, what are you backing?

BTTS @ 1.90 with BetStars

Robert Lewandowski Anytime Scorer @ 2.25 with 888Sport

[Marek76]

@StevieDay1983 Plata o plomo! With both teams needing the points this game can go either way but, as said earlier, I don't see us as winners here. Our coach is said to be tinkering with the 3-5-2 line up, the one we hardly ever played. That's exactly the panic reaction I mentioned in the 1st post. He probably will not change 50% of his squad as Sampaoli did, Argentina's coach, but he might do something similar. Too early to venture on a witch hunt but if he drops Milik and introduces Kownacki and Bereszynski (both from Sampdoria) and Jacek Goralski (Ludogorec), all hungry to play, he might have a chance to shine. 

I succesfully predicted the correct score of our first game in our World Cup competition, so if I used that as a reference I'd predict a high scoring game with Colombia as winners.

Poland - Colombia CS 2-3 @41

over 4.5 goals @9

 

[harry_rag]

I'm in the pro-Senegal camp here in terms of expected outcome. Their goal rush looks reasonably cheap at 14 (profit for 2 or more) but their hotshots with SPIN look even better value at 13.5 (25 points per Mane, Niang or Sarr goal). I think those 3 players are worth around 20 points.

[waynecoyne]

On 6/5/2018 at 10:06 PM, Marek76 said:

If you noticed an odds movement on Poland accross the board that would be due to the injury of Kamil Glik (AS Monaco), who decided to shoot an overhead kick during a 5-a-side training session game and landed straight on his back, damaging his shoulder in the process. The latest news indicate he'll be out for 5-6 weeks (he might make it in time to feature in the finals if we manage to scrape through  ) He's the pillar of our back four and without him I'm honestly worried about the state of our defence. Think of him as John Terry in his prime for the English national team.

There's a joke doing the rounds in Poland for a long while that whenever we play in the World Cup or Euros, there are 3 group games that could be characterised as:

1. The opening game

2. Win or die

3. Saving the face

I for one am quite sceptical about our chances in Russia. The opening game vs Senegal will be decisive and if Mane and Co shift the gear up, we'll be in trouble. All of our defenders currently at the disposal are slow (apart from Piszczek from Dortmund) , combined with physical style of African teams (the style we're supposed to play), we might see the copy/paste scenario of Poland's games in S. Korea in 2002, which read as follows: Loss - Loss - Win , and corresponds directly with the game description above (1-3).

We have a decent generation of players but a large group of them will retire after this World Cup, their hay days were during the Euros in France. Lewandowski is about to leave Bayern (for Juventus?) and his mind might be elsewhere if he doesn't do all the paperwork before the first kick off.

I predict we will not qualify from the group and will try our best to avoid the last spot in the group in our final game versus Japan. Japanese football have progressed immensly so losing to them is not out of the question either.

Poland: zero points in the group stage @26

Poland: 1 point in the group stage @12

 

 

 

 

On 6/5/2018 at 10:06 PM, Marek76 said:

@Marek76

will you be backing Poland in the final game as a hedge?

 

 

[Sir Puntalot]

Just can't believe how bad Poland have been, as they looked a good side in the qualifiers. Perhaps they have a bit of the England syndrome, good in qualifiers, hopeless at finals. Polish players need to hang their head in shame in my opinion. Against Colombia they were just jogging round the pitch, no fast closing down, just a pure acceptance they were going to lose.

Really does remind me of England teams of the last few years, but we'll see if the current one crumbles against better opposition.

[StevieDay1983]

Japan vs Poland

I really didn't think I would be writing a preview for this final Group H game with Japan being not only seen as the favourites to reach the last 16 from this group but favourites to win this 3pm BST kick-off versus Poland at the Volgograd Arena in Volgograd.

Japan have quite frankly stunned me with their performance so far. I still feel they had luck on their side against Colombia. 11 vs 11 and that was only ending in a Colombia win. However, the fight and determination they showed against Senegal in that 2-2 draw won me over.

Poland have been appalling. As @Sir Puntalot rightly said, their players should hang their heads in shame after that pathetic display against Colombia. As soon as that first Colombia goal went in you could just see the motivation departed that Polish team. It was horrible to watch.

Who will come out on top in this game? Akira Nishino's side need a draw to confirm their spot in the last 16. In fact, they may already have done enough because if Senegal beat Colombia then that also seals Japan's place in the second phase. A draw in the other game could also potentially see them through.

I hope for Poland's sake that their players show a bit of pride in this final game. Japan will be doing everything they can to win this game and seal top spot in the group. Whether it's England or Belgium they face in the last 16 it'll be a tough game but they need to get there first. I expect more of the same fight and resilience they showed against Senegal.

Poland have the higher quality of player but Japan seemingly have more effort and commitment. I think Poland could suffer another defeat here and be leaving this tournament with no points. I still think it will be an entertaining game because both teams want the win. I also think it's about bloody time Robert Lewandowski scored!

BTTS @ 1.87 with MarathonBet

Robert Lewandowski Anytime Scorer @ 2.28 with 888Sport

[StevieDay1983]

Senegal vs Colombia

If there was one group stage game I was looking forward to then this would be it. Senegal versus Colombia in a 3pm BST kick-off at the Cosmos Arena in Samara. Senegal know a draw would be enough to see them progress but a defeat would more than likely end in elimination. Colombia know a win is needed but a draw could do the job.

Senegal became everyone's second favourite team thanks to the great spirit of their fans and the attractive attacking play of their team. The opening game 2-1 win over Poland was not necessarily unexpected but the manner in which they attacked their opponents with free-flowing football was surprising. The 2-2 draw with Japan showed how much fight their side has.

Colombia were left humbled by Japan with a 2-1 loss in their opening game. They looked to be struggling to break down Poland in their second game before the Polish defence was breached in the 40th minute and the flood gates then opened. The longer the game wore on the more you could see the Colombian self-belief grew. That is the factor that could be a problem for Senegal here.

I would love to see both of these teams progress. In fact, it's a shame that one of Japan, Senegal, and Colombia won't be in the last 16 because all three nations deserve to be there based on how they have played. Sadly, I think we could be saying goodbye to Aliou Cisse's men.

Jose Pekerman's side looked re-born in their game with Poland. Yes, Poland were poor but the Colombian performance was exhilarating. If you're a Senegalese fan then it would worry you how well they played. Play like that again and they'll dismantle this Senegal team.

This should be an open game. Cisse won't want to play defensive and hold out for a draw. It's asking for trouble. Colombia would pick them apart over 90 minutes. It goes against the mantra of this Senegalese team as well. Senegal will look to take the game to Colombia and Colombia will fight back with everything they have got.

I can't express how excited I am about this game. If both teams set up as I anticipate then we could have a goal fest. One team is likely to miss out. I fancy Japan to hold Poland to a draw at least so sadly it means we could well lose one of these two. Let's hope whoever it is goes out firing on all cylinders.

BTTS @ 1.91 with Betfair

Colombia to win @ 1.91 with Betway

[Magic0024]

Football Facts and Streaks regarding FIFA World Cup

England are undefeated in their last 13 matches in FIFA World Cup.
Belgium are undefeated in their last 12 matches in FIFA World Cup.
Japan are undefeated in 91% of their last 11 matches in FIFA World Cup.
Belgium have won with at least a 3 goal margin in their last 3 matches in FIFA World Cup.
There have been over 2.5 goals scored in Poland's last 12 games in FIFA World Cup.
There have been over 2.5 goals scored in Panama's last 5 games in FIFA World Cup.
Senegal have scored at least 2 goals in their last 6 matches in FIFA World Cup.

You can find interesting 36 Football Betting Streaks for 28.06.2018 on this link ... http://eurofootballrumours.com/football-facts-and-streaks-28-06-2018-10119

 

[Marek76]

8 hours ago, StevieDay1983 said:

I would love to see both of these teams progress. In fact, it's a shame that one of Japan, Senegal, and Colombia won't be in the last 16 because all three nations deserve to be there based on how they have played.

Japan have already qualified, they play for the 1st-2nd spot now

[pizarro1]

16 minutes ago, Marek76 said:

Japan have already qualified, they play for the 1st-2nd spot now

No they're not, if they lose against Poland and the game Senegal / Colombia ends a draw they're third place. There's also a scenario where Poland gives a big trashing and Colombia wins by just one goal difference where Senegal would still end ahead on goal difference.

[Marek76]

Oh you're right, Columbia has got 4:2 goal difference whereas Japan 4:3. I've been so confident about Columbia's victory that I haven't considered a draw in their game  

[betcatalog]

The motivation is with Japan, it's a compact team and a lot of running, patience that never gives up. Poland made a tournament and I can trust it. I will bet Japan's militancy so you will not lose it today
JAPAN vs POLAND @@ +0 AH JAPAN, odds 1.80

[Marek76]

On 5.06.2018 at 11:06 PM, Marek76 said:

whenever we play in the World Cup or Euros, there are 3 group games that could be characterised as:

1. The opening game

2. Win or die

3. Saving the face

 

Poland: zero points in the group stage @26

Poland: 1 point in the group stage @12

 

It's sad to say but everything goes according to the plan... We lost two initial games and based on the pattern from previous World Cups we should beat Japan in our last group game in order to avoid total humilation - as we did in 2002 (vs USA 3-1) and in 2006 (vs Costa Rica 2-1). But somehow I don't see that happening this time around as Japan have got everything to play for and they might simply outrun us. 35-40 degrees Celcius heat is expected this afternoon which will not help us.

Some background stories:

A couple of senior players started to complain about the coach, his tactics, poor choice of the starting line up etc. Also, the story of Lewandowski got some fresh light, as it turns out he's outsider within the squad, he likes to keep to himself and does not bond with the rest of the team (a true introvert or ego issues?). 

 

I'd expect to see a new squad, with plenty of fresh faces, including Bartosz Białkowski (Ipswich Town) who's been getting raving reviews in the media throughout the season in the Championship.

I might hedge my initial, major bets but for anyone who hasn't got involved in the game yet the best bet would probably be to focus on goals, BTTS and overs would be my choice, preferably the former.  

Good luck to us, we'll need it!

 

[markus808]

I expect physical Senegal side to get more cards against fast and individually able Colombians. Both of the bets would have won in Senegal's previous two games. Senegal had 2 cards against Poland and 3 cards against Japan. 
Senegal more cards @1.76
Senegal over 1.5 cards @1.42

[Bayern]

Japan vs Poland

Japan have beaten South American strong side Columbia and got a draw with African outfit Senegal in the first 2 group games, both as the underdogs. The players like Keisuke Honda and Takashi Inui have put up good performance.

As for Poland, they have poor display in the first 2 group games. They have lost both of them and are already eliminated from this competition. Their striker Robert Lewandowski was tightly marked and had poor build-up play with his teammates.

In terms of motivation, Japan only need a draw to secure a spot of Last 16, while Poland will fight for their honor in this match, and Lewandowski also hopes to find the net in World Cup.

For more information about the tips of World Cup, please visit http://predict.7msport.com/en/report_list.shtml

Considering the current AH line and both sides' recent form and motivation, 7M Sports believe a draw is the most likely outcome of this match. Secondly, we are also going for a narrow win for Japan.

[Bayern]

Senegal vs Colombia

Senegal have got 1 win and 1 draw in their first 2 games, but they are not guaranteed to advance into next round. The final group game against Columbia will be their test. 

On the other hand, Columbia, led by James Rodriguez, Radamel Falcao and Juan Cuadrado, have won over Poland 3-0 in their last game, getting back on winning track after their first defeat to Japan. 

Given both sides' overall quality and experience, Columbia who have entered the Last 8 in the last World Cup are superior.

The line is -0.50 for Columbia, which is confident for South America giants. So 7M Sports believe Columbia are expected to pick up all 3 points in this game.