Group C Predictions (France, Australia, Peru, Denmark)

[StevieDay1983]

Group C initially appears to be set for the two European sides of France and Denmark to qualify. However, Peru are one of the highest ranked nations in this tournament and will be bouncing after qualifying for their first World Cup since 1982. Australia might well be the whipping boys here but it only takes a shock result to change a team's tournament. What bets will you guys be placing in this group?

[StevieDay1983]

The more time that has passed since posting up this thread, the more I am feeling that Peru could spring a surprise and qualify. Don't get me wrong, my head is still telling me to back France to win the group and Denmark to finish as runners up. However, Peru are looking dangerous and confident in their friendlies. Australia, sadly, could just be coming along to make up the numbers. They have had mixed results in friendlies so far under new manager Bert van Marwijk consisting of a 4-1 loss to Norway before a credible 0-0 draw against Colombia. The Socceroos might get a draw somewhere but they surely can't expect to qualify.

[Dalan Quaice]

I call this group, group of death. They are all equally matched. My concern is Australia inconsistent. But people looking to place a bet with the bookmakers should consider this group on BTS ( Both Team to Score). Lots of goals here. I think France, former world cup winner 1998 and semi finalist 2006 will go through. Peru and Denmark will battle it out and lots of goals between them. It is the fight for knockout stage.

Team           P     W    D.  L    PTS

France         3.      1    2      0      5  

Denmark.    3.      1     1.    0.     4

Peru.            3.      0.    2    1.      2

Australia.     3.     0      1.   2      1

•  

 

[StevieDay1983]

23 hours ago, Dalan Quaice said:

I call this group, group of death. They are all equally matched. My concern is Australia inconsistent. But people looking to place a bet with the bookmakers should consider this group on BTS ( Both Team to Score). Lots of goals here. I think France, former world cup winner 1998 and semi finalist 2006 will go through. Peru and Denmark will battle it out and lots of goals between them. It is the fight for knockout stage.

Team           P     W    D.  L    PTS

France         3.      1    2      0      5  

Denmark.    3.      1     1.    0.     4

Peru.            3.      0.    2    1.      2

Australia.     3.     0      1.   2      1

•  

 

Yeah, I think you touch on a valid point about consistency. All of these sides have a stunning performance and a catastrophic performance in them. It just depends which performances they put in. My friend has a Peruvian wife so they are really getting behind them. It means I've followed them a bit more too and I can see them causing a bit of a shock due to it being their first World Cup in a while. If they can get something in that opening game with Denmark then it would give them a great chance of progressing because I think they can beat Australia.

[Tel79]

I got a thing for Denmark here, They could win the group, they will give France their best game of the tournament and could get something from it. The French can capitulate, they have left out some decent players however they are still very strong. 

France on Goal difference from Denmark. I would also agree the BTTS market could be very interesting for this group, money to be made. 

[StevieDay1983]

On 5/31/2018 at 3:28 PM, Tel79 said:

I got a thing for Denmark here, They could win the group, they will give France their best game of the tournament and could get something from it. The French can capitulate, they have left out some decent players however they are still very strong. 

France on Goal difference from Denmark. I would also agree the BTTS market could be very interesting for this group, money to be made. 

Yeah, I think that's a good couple of calls there. I can certainly see Denmark holding France to a draw. I think this group could produce some fascinating action. On the face of it, it's a standard group where you'd back the two European teams to progress. However, both European sides are prone to a slip up and both non-European sides can pull off a shock result on their day.

[waynecoyne]

Peru captain paolo guerrero has had his drugs ban lifted for the tournament. He is peru's main striker and talisman.

He scored twice yesterday v saudi arabia in a 3-0 win. He is favourite to be top Peru goalscorer at 5/2 with b365, which looks worth taking. 

[StevieDay1983]

Yeah, that's a brilliant shout, @waynecoyne! Glad his ban has been lifted. Looks like justice has been done.

[sajtion]

france will probably win all three games. they got some special players

[Dalan Quaice]

[Dalan Quaice]

 

References

 

1. https://metinmediamath.wordpress.com/2013/11/27/how-to-calculate-the-elo-rating-including-example/

2. http://eloratings.net/

Edited June 7, 2018 by Dalan Quaice
spell check

[Dalan Quaice]

FIFA RANK = A1

66 = A2

 

Edited June 7, 2018 by Dalan Quaice
Spell check

[nottingham21]

Got the following as legs of an acca along with games from first two days...

France vs Australia - France -1 (4/6) bet365

Iceland Not to Score - 4/9 bet365

Peru vs Denmark - Under 2.5 goals 8/13 bet365

Nigeria vs Croatia - Nigeria Double Chance 10/11 bet365

As I said in the other thread, just having a bit of fun, not serious bets.

gl!

[StevieDay1983]

11 hours ago, nottingham21 said:

Got the following as legs of an acca along with games from first two days...

France vs Australia - France -1 (4/6) bet365

Iceland Not to Score - 4/9 bet365

Peru vs Denmark - Under 2.5 goals 8/13 bet365

Nigeria vs Croatia - Nigeria Double Chance 10/11 bet365

As I said in the other thread, just having a bit of fun, not serious bets.

gl!

All decent shouts there though mate! That Nigeria one is a brave call but not a bad one. Their unpredictability means they could well get something against Croatia. Especially because Croatia have failed to deliver at a World Cup since 1998.

[StevieDay1983]

France vs Australia

Group C action gets underway this Saturday morning when France take on Australia in an 11am BST kick-off at the Kazan Arena in Kazan. This is a game that will give a lot of people a better idea of how seriously the French can be considered as one of the favourites for the trophy.

Didier Deschamps and his players navigated their way through a potentially tricky qualification group finishing top ahead of the likes of Sweden, Netherlands, Bulgaria, Luxembourg, and Belarus. Les Blue were let off the hook after a humiliating 0-0 draw with Luxembourg at home.

Australia have seen their preparations for the tournament dogged by controversy. Former head coach Ange Postecoglou resigned from the Socceroos role claiming his four years in charge had been the most difficult of his life. There was never an easy relationship between Postecoglou and those in the media and Australian FA. It seemed a relationship doomed to fail.

However, Australia replaced him with the experienced Dutch gaffer Bert Van Marwijk. Some of you may remember him from the 2010 World Cup where he led Netherlands to a Final defeat against Spain. Results have progressively improved under the Dutchman leading to quiet optimism from the Australian players and supporters.

This game is another potential banana skin for France. Australia are high on confidence under Van Marwijk right now and in their opening game they will be keen to make an impressive. If France can get an early goal then it could be a punch in the gut for the Socceroos. That said, the longer Australia keep France at bay, the more likely they are to cause an upset.

I still think France have too much. I am starting to think Brazil will win this tournament but France are one of their biggest rivals and the team I want to win it. Anything other than a victory will be considered embarrassing for the French here but I think they should have enough to get the win. It might not be a classic though.

France -1 @ 1.80 with Betfair

Griezmann to score anytime @ 2.10 with Ladbrokes

[StevieDay1983]

Peru vs Denmark

The second match of Group C in this opening round of games comes in a 5pm BST kick-off between Peru and Denmark at the Mordovia Arena in Saransk. In the grand scheme of things, this is probably one of the toughest outcomes to call because there is a degree of unpredictability about both sides.

Peru will enter this competition for the first time since 1982. One of my close friends has a Peruvian wife and the entire country is ecstatic. They are football mad and this is a defining moment in their footballing history. Their preparations have been hit by the circumstances surrounding the ban of star striker Paolo Guerrero but it fortunately looks like he is set to be eligible now.

Head coach Ricardo Gareca has built a very hungry squad. It is a team that has not tasted defeat in any shape or form since 15th November, 2016. That is 15 matches without a loss. It isn't like Peru have played poor teams either. During that run they have beaten the likes of Uruguay, Croatia, and Iceland. They have also drawn with Argentina. Do not write this Peru side off. They have also scored 12 goals in their last 6 matches. So they know where the net is.

Denmark took the scenic route to Russia. Current head coach Age Hareide saw his side sneak into the play-offs with a draw at home to Romania seeing them finish second to group leaders Poland. In the play-offs, they were held 0-0 at home against Ireland before battering Martin O'Neill's side 5-1 in Dublin. Their tournament preparation could not have gone better with four friendlies producing four clean sheets and wins against fellow World Cup qualifiers Panama and Mexico.

Peru are the one side I feel could make a huge statement at this World Cup. Granted, they finished 5th in their qualification group but still exceeded expectations by only finishing 2 points behind 3rd placed Argentina and qualified ahead of more fancied sides such as Chile, Paraguay, and Ecuador. The team seems buzzing now Guerrero has had his ban lifted.

The Danes are capable of a stunning performance as they showed against Ireland in the play-offs and with the 4-0 battering of Poland in the qualifiers. However, they lack consistency. Unless they play to their potential I feel this is a game that Peru could take at least a draw in.

BTTS @ 2.05 with Betway

Peru Double Chance @ 1.62 with BetBright

[harry_rag]

France v Australia has ended up as the Giezmann show for me.

Already on him not to play the whole game at 6/5 with 888. Looking at the fixed odds goalscorer markets I think he may be slightly underrated by some prices. 11/10 anytime with Lads (fine at 21/20 without price boost), 5/1 for 2 or more with Skybet and may add a small "SBH" bet (score both halves) at 10/1 or better.

[newjack]

I find it fairly easy to bet here. France is not the same France it was 2 years ago and while the qualifiers were sloppy to say the least and unconvincing this is totally a different scenario. They had league/ucl matches during quali and their head wasnt in the right place and qualis are always shit. So im betting on a convicing france win 2+ goals

 

Iceland could surprise argies with a goal. I certainly find much interest in bts here which is priced well. Aftet all its the same team as in Euro 2016, first time world cup, hype is real. 

Value i find tonight is Croatia. So many quality players all over the place, they've always been strong but never won wc/eu. Nevertheless they should cruise here. So ill be bold and play Croatia -1.5.

Gl

[Pep004]

France to win to nil @1,80

The national team of France has received a very good warning in the last friendly match before the World Cup against the USA, where they were enormously better side, but still allowed the opponent several chances. Could have been even 2-0 for the USA,… After all, I think that draw was actually a good thing for the team with several players with extremely high confidence. Sidibe made a crucial mistake, allowing the USA to score the first goal, but will almost surely remain in the first lineup, which is in my opinion correct. I’ve said few things about French national side in first World Cup post and I am really wondering if Deschamps will finally start the match without Giroud, as in my opinion, they can play much faster, with more continuous high pressure, etc. without than with him. As said in the first post, Australia had pretty tough time with qualifications, where they almost slipped. That says a lot of their current selection, as they almost never had huge problems with qualifications… I see this match totally one-sided, where Australia will try to do some things from set-pieces, but I think that with Umtiti, Varane & co., France is a very decent side when it comes to set-pieces and aerial duels and therefore I don’t expect bigger problems for the French side. It’s a tricky bet, where only one goal of Australia destroys everything, but the first match is very important and for favorized teams, it’s simply a need to start it in a good way. On the paper, Australia is the easiest opponent for France, and I expect 2-0 for Les Blues.

Other interesting bets, maybe even more valuable... are France -1,5, France to win the first half-time, France to win half-time/full-time, but it will be easier to get better odds in-play.

Why more valuable? Because I think that Australia might be strong enough to hold for first minutes, but then especially with Giroud on the bench, I think that pressure of France will be simply too strong, and Australians won't be able to compete...

[harry_rag]

Added Griezmann to score in both halves at 10/1 Hills, using a spare free bet.

[pvaas]

Aussies +1.5 was the play the whole time. Value lied on the draw immensely but it just didn't pan out. 

I don't buy the hype for iceland, they had their shot at the euros, sure they look okay (more so argentina looked uninspiring at times) but their backline is collectively like 160 years old. Messi could win this 3-0 himself. I fancy 3-1 to be fair. 

i won France win and clean sheet NO $300, Won the aussies +1.5 in a parlay with argentina -1.5 so hoping for that to pull thru. Have messi to score anytime $500. lost the draw for aussies $200. 

[staffy]

Peru v Denmark

 

2 sides in good form and have very good defensive records.

Going again the stats tho and going btts with Betfair @ 2.48

 

Think both sides will want to start well and w8n this game. 

[Mindfulness]

France V Peru

Both Teams To Score: Yes @ 2.10 Betfair

Don't really understand why BTTS is odds against here, both teams have a lot of attacking talent but both are questionable at the back. It's true that Peru squandered a good amount of chances V Denmark but the flipside is that they created a lot of chances against a team that is supposed to be fairly robust.

France are not robust in my view, they have confidence and fitness issues in both full-back positions while Mark Lawrenson's comment about Umtiti's brain leaving his body in the Australia game was another gem.

Don't get me wrong, I feel France have enough to do the business and get 3pts from this game but I don't see the Peruvians sitting back. Los Incas clearly have an attacking mentality and if coach Ricardo Gareca starts top scorer Paolo Guerrero against France then maybe the Peruvians can convert what they create.

I make the BTTS odds to be around 1.82 for this match so 2.10 is a clear value play in my view.

Edited June 20, 2018 by Mindfulness

[StevieDay1983]

Denmark vs Australia

Every World Cup has a number of games when the draw is made that really make you think "I won't bother tuning in for that one!" and it can be argued that Denmark versus Australia in Group C was one of those matches. Oh, how that has changed after just one game. When both teams meet in a 1pm BST kick-off on Thursday afternoon at the Cosmos Arena in Samara it will be a simple case of their fate at this World Cup being on the line.

Denmark prevailed victorious against an exciting Peru in their opening game. The 1-0 win was one that they will be delighted to have earned. It now means that a win in this game will put them on the brink of qualification. It is now a case of seeing how they approach this game. Does Age Hareide attack Australia to try and get the win or will he play a progressive game similar to that performance against Peru and be satisfied with a point but hope for snatching a win?

Australia were desperately unlucky not to take something from their opening game with France. The VAR controversy over Antoine Griezmann's penalty continues to rage on. It just felt like a game where the luck balance was certainly not in Australia's favour. I saw enough from Australia to make me think they could cause problems for Denmark here if they keep their heads.

The one thing currently favouring Denmark right now is the ability to get results. Their team has got into the habit of grinding opponents down. The ball is also in Australia's court to come at Denmark and that could play into Denmark's hands. The Socceroos will be hanging on by the skin of their teeth if they draw and a defeat could see them eliminated if France don't lose to Peru.

My feeling is that Denmark will sneak this. They have the better set of players and they are in an ideal position going into this game. They will put the initiative with Australia and pick them off with counter attacking play which is when they are at their best. You only need to see how they destroyed Ireland in Dublin in that second leg of the play-offs as proof of that. Correct score of 2-1 or 2-0 to Denmark for me.

Denmark to win @ 2.00 with SunBets

Denmark to score first @ 1.73 with BetStars

[StevieDay1983]

France vs Peru

Straight onto the next game in Group C and we have France versus Peru kicking off right after the previous game at 4pm BST from the Central Stadium in Yekaterinburg. Can the Euro 2016 finalists take a huge step towards the last 16 and potentially even have that spot confirmed with a win against the South American side here?

Didier Deschamps will be concerned at how laborious his team were against Australia in the opening game. Take nothing away from the Australian performance but had it not been for VAR controversy then it might well have been a game that France would not have won.

In contrast, Peru will be pleased with their overall performance in the opening defeat to Denmark but it will be the result that Ricardo Gareca's side will be kicking themselves about. It was a game they really could have won and a defeat here could well see their tournament all but ended.

The big nations have struggled in the tournament so far but I expect the likes of France to start picking their performances up a bit now. Peru will no doubt provide resilient opposition again. They will want to savour every minute of this World Cup and will fight until the bitter end. Unfortunately, I just don't think they will beat France here. A draw is possible. If they have that bit of luck then it's not out of the question. I just think France have too much quality and will have heeded that warning from the opening game.

Total Goals Scored Over 2.5 @ 2.05 with Betway

Anytime Scorer: Antoine Griezmann @ 2.30 with Bet365

[AlexD]

Denmark vs Australia

I was somewhat disappointed with the way Denmark performed in their opener game, but then again, first round matches tend to be more rigid and a lot of teams are inclined to play play it safe, so to speak. Their defense was solid for the majority of the game, and lived up to their reputation of being a tough nut to crack on most days. It's their attack that I expected to perform better and show more creativity in the final third of the pitch. I believe that this could change on Thursday, as the team should now be past the anxiety surrounding their first World Cup game, and with three points in the bag, they should be more relaxed and will be looking to secure their spot in the playoffs instead of looking for their ticket in the final game vs France.

On the other hand, Australia did better than most have expected in their game vs France, but in my opinion it is more thanks to the uninspired performance by the French than their own. They've been known to put on a good fight and show even when they've been eliminated in the group stage, so they'll certainly be no pushovers. That being said, Aussies tend to be very physical and not afraid of full-contact play in pretty much any sport, and football is no exception, even if they team may be lacking quality compared to some. This means that they're more than capable of frustrating the opposition with strong marking and aerial duels, and they've demonstrated that vs France who, for some reason, chose to play more long passes than I would've expected.

In the end, I think that Denmark should have enough quality in the back to prevent any upsets from the Aussie team, and, depending on how inspired Eriksen & Co. will be up front with their ball movement and distribution, they should be able to bag 2 or 3, and secure their playoff spot, should there not be any upsets in the other game of Group C.

Unfortunately, it seems that I'll be forced to bet locally for the remainder of the World Cup, so posting odds will be of little use here.

That being said, I'm inclined towards Denmark to win and total goals scored between 2 and 4.

France vs Peru

France had an uninspired performance vs Australia in their first game, which led to a very frustrating game for them, and they'll be happy with their three points as they could've easily been held to a draw by the Aussies. If they intend to live up to their expectations from this cup, as well as expectations of their fans, they'll need to step it up in their subsequent games. On the other hand, France is often one of those teams who build their form as the tournaments progress, so I wouldn't be surprised to see them perform much better in their second game of the World Cup, even though Peru should be a much tougher opposition on paper, and in their first game they've definitely shown that there is quality in their squad.

On the other hand, for the majority of the match, Peru vs Denmark was anyone's game, and Peru will be kicking themselves over that missed penalty, but also over not starting their aging legend Paolo Guerrero, who demonstrated that he still has a lot to offer to his national team even after a lengthy suspension. In my opinion, Peru put on a solid game against Denmark, and had shown that their reputation of being a hard team to score against is well-founded. After that loss, however, they've got nothing to lose as the defeat against France will send them packing their bags early.

If Peru changes their lineup somewhat and starts Guerrero, and if France ups their game after managing to snatch the important three points off their nervous first game performance, both of which I expect to happen, we should have an exciting game to watch. Peru will be looking to survive in this tournament, and France will be looking to secure another 3 points. I think that France will be able to put on a good display and secure their playoff spot, allowing them to rest some players in the third game, possibly even do some calculations (both of which wouldn't be the first time we see them do) because winners of the Group D are all but unknown after Argentina failed to secure three points vs Iceland.

This win won't come without a fight, however.

France to win and BTTS

Just for fun - a small-stake bet on CS France - Peru 2:1.

[Magic0024]

Football Facts and Streaks regarding FIFA World Cup

France have won 80% of their last 10 matches in FIFA World Cup.
There have been under 2.5 goals scored in 91% of Croatia's last 11 games in FIFA World Cup.
There have been under 2.5 goals scored in Peru's last 5 games in FIFA World Cup.
There have been under 2.5 goals scored in 86% of Argentina's last 7 games in FIFA World Cup.
Denmark are undefeated in their last 10 matches in FIFA World Cup.

You can find interesting 26 Football Betting Streaks for 21.06.2018 on this link ... http://eurofootballrumours.com/football-facts-and-streaks-21-06-2018-10031

[betcatalog]

Peru, burned for grade or points, the two teams need to be cautious, but not monotonous defensive. They have very good aggressive lines and I expect both teams to score
FRANCE vs PERU @@ Both team to score, odds 2.05

[markus808]

I'm expecting a Peru goal but besides these two I don't see anyone else scoring. So my bet for today is France vs Peru anytime goalscorer Paolo Guerrero @5.0 and Christian Cueva (who is on penalties too) @ 5.5 with betfair.  Also I'm not sure Peru should be 7.0 against VAR enhanced France maybe I will take a look at some AH lines.

Edited June 21, 2018 by markus808

[AlexD]

It is now becoming obvious that Denmark has issues going forward and creating chances, yet when playing behind the ball and conceding possession to their opponents, they seem to be tame when it comes to successfully counter-attacking. Their defense was solid again, but Schmeichel was shaky on a few occasions. And talk about loose cannons - Poulsen's impact on Denmark's WC campaign will be one to remember! In just two games, he has managed to concede a penalty to Peru (which, luckily for them, Cueva managed to miss), redeem himself by scoring what turned out to be the only goal of the game, only to complicate things for Denmark once again with a handball which led to (another) penalty for Australia in this game.

Denmark has now made things very complicated for themselves, and will be hoping that France manages to snatch a victory against Peru later today, lest they seek their redemption in a very hard match against the "Roosters" in the third game, which should be a nightmare given the French midfield potential, as they should be able to cut off Eriksen, effectively reducing their attacking options.

Props to the Aussies. They've once again proven that they're a very physical side which is very competent at closing off the attacks in front of their penalty area, and were more brave today, going forward more frequently, especially as the game was drawing to an end. I still think their finishing is lacking, and they're prone to rash decisions such as forcing unfavorable shots from the outside, while their crosses are frequently left off with no man to meet them.

Peru should be taking notes - basing your game around aerial duels versus Australia is simply asking for trouble, as proven by both France and Denmark now. On the other hand, I don't think the Australians will pose much threat from counter attacks as their transition is rather slow.

Let's see how France and Peru do now.

ED: spelling

Edited June 21, 2018 by AlexD