Grex Posted December 15, 2017 Author Share Posted December 15, 2017 Thanks, Torque, for your analysis and suggested staking strategy. For the 1-X-2, selections are based on perceived "value". For correct scores, please note that it is not possible to calculate "value", as SAM does not provide "probability" percentage - only the most likely score. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 55 minutes ago, Grex said: Thanks, Torque, for your analysis and suggested staking strategy. For the 1-X-2, selections are based on perceived "value". For correct scores, please note that it is not possible to calculate "value", as SAM does not provide "probability" percentage - only the most likely score. My mistake - I made the assumption that probability percentages were calculated for correct scores as well as 1x2. In that case, it's probably safest from a staking point of view to take the position that the odds are an accurate reflection of the probability, even though you're hoping that's not the case and you're backing a correct score with value on your side. It'll be interesting to see how the correct score figures look at the end of the season - that should give a good indication as to whether SAM is able to identify +EV in that market. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted December 15, 2017 Author Share Posted December 15, 2017 Saturday's selections below. I will post Sunday's selections tomorrow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted December 16, 2017 Author Share Posted December 16, 2017 A nice day for the 1-X-2's - 32 bets... ROI +23% Less said about the "correct scores" the better. A long losing run of 8...... 53 bets... ROI +21% Two away selections for Sunday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted December 16, 2017 Author Share Posted December 16, 2017 Apologies - wrong score for Stoke v West Ham.... should be 0-3. I will correct it in the next results post. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted December 17, 2017 Author Share Posted December 17, 2017 Only Watford let down the 1-X-2 system over the weekend. 34 bets.... ROI +25% As for the correct scores..... the losing run extends to TEN 20% of the way to Torque's estimated 50 bet losing run (see post dated 14/12/17). So, 34 bets..... ROI +16% It looks as though BBC is not going to publish SAM's predictions for tomorrow's Everton game - so, the next round is Xmas eve. I am going to the South America for Xmas and New Year - so, I may not be able to keep up with the system. I wish you all a Merry Christmas and a happy and profitable 2018 jtw1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 Happy trails Grex 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted December 22, 2017 Author Share Posted December 22, 2017 Weekend's selections - Leicester game to come later. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted December 22, 2017 Author Share Posted December 22, 2017 .... and the Leicester game..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted December 24, 2017 Author Share Posted December 24, 2017 1-X-2 system: thanks to Man United for managing to snatch a draw from the jaws of victory - 39 bets - ROI +22% Correct scores: Swansea - Crystal Palace ended a run of 16 losses - 65 bets - ROI +8% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted December 25, 2017 Author Share Posted December 25, 2017 BBC have not published the SAM predictions for Boxing Day - so, relax and enjoy your festive season Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vikki37 Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 This thread is always interesting to follow. Thanks for updating. Merry Christmas! Have a wonderful celebration! Grex 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted December 28, 2017 Author Share Posted December 28, 2017 One for this evening....... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted December 29, 2017 Author Share Posted December 29, 2017 Yesterday's game was nearly a draw (2-3).... does that count? Selections for the weekend.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted December 29, 2017 Author Share Posted December 29, 2017 (edited) My usual image hosting site was "down" when I made the above post - the definition suffered. It is now back on-line - so, I will post it again..... hope the quality is a bit better Not a lot Edited December 29, 2017 by Grex added "not a lot" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted January 5, 2018 Author Share Posted January 5, 2018 Just about maintained the status quo on the 1-X-2 system: 46 bets...... ROI +19% The correct score system continues to go pear-shaped. I am going to give it a miss from now on. Apart from the long, soul-destroying losing streaks, there are some inconsistencies in the predictions. I am obviously not familiar with the algorithms that SAM uses to predict the scores, but there appears to be a basic problem - the average goals per game predicted by SAM is 1.72, whereas the actual goals per game is 2.63. No 0-0 results are predicted, and the highest team score is 3 goals. Let's focus on the 1-X-2 system and see how it goes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted January 12, 2018 Author Share Posted January 12, 2018 Saturday's selections - remember the "correct score" system has been dropped. Back later with Sunday's selections. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted January 12, 2018 Author Share Posted January 12, 2018 SAM also gives 1-X-2 probabilities fro Championship games - but no correct score predictions. So, I thought I would give it a go - same cut-off criteria as the Premier League. Absolutely no testing - so, beware. Already one losing result Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted January 14, 2018 Author Share Posted January 14, 2018 Just a quickie with the rest of the weekend's selections for the Premier League..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted January 16, 2018 Author Share Posted January 16, 2018 A bad weekend for the Premier League: 52 bets..... + 9% ROI Also a bad start for the Championship: 9 bets..... - 9% ROI. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted January 19, 2018 Author Share Posted January 19, 2018 One for tonight in the Championship. I will post Saturday's games, and the Premier League later. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted January 19, 2018 Author Share Posted January 19, 2018 Well, the weekend got off to a bad start with Bristol City failing to beat Derby. Things can only get better..... can't they? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted January 21, 2018 Author Share Posted January 21, 2018 I think the Championship trial may be short-lived Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted January 21, 2018 Author Share Posted January 21, 2018 Not a good weekend for the Premier League either: 57 bets..... + 6% ROI BBC has not published the SAM predictions for Swansea - Liverpool, so that is probably all until 30 January. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jenno99 Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 Hey Grex, love the idea for the system. Are you prepared to give out a little more detail in the selection process? For instance, why was Brighton v Chelsea a no bet rather than away win? It looks from the table like there was value. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted January 27, 2018 Author Share Posted January 27, 2018 Good point, Jenno. I apply various cut-off criteria - one being "maximum value". An analysis of the very limited historical data indicated that too much value had a negative impact - so, I stick to a range of between 100% and 110%, otherwise it is "No Bet", as was the case with Brighton-Chelsea on 20/01/18. I also apply a cut-off limit to the odds - if less that 1.30, it's a "No Bet", as was the case with Man City - Newcastle. Hope this helps. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted January 30, 2018 Author Share Posted January 30, 2018 Tuesday's selections for the Premier League and the Championship...... let's hope the home teams are in good form Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted January 31, 2018 Author Share Posted January 31, 2018 A boost for the Premier League... thanks to Swansea. Wednesday's selections below. The Championship is about to be ditched Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted January 31, 2018 Author Share Posted January 31, 2018 Overall, a good long weekend for the Premier League: 64 bets..... + 14% ROI Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted February 3, 2018 Author Share Posted February 3, 2018 Selections for Saturday / Sunday Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.